The bottom experts are singing hosannas because their eyes have seen the bottom of the economy. This years monsoon has been abundant, although typhoon Phailin damaged rice crops in Odisha and Andhra, so a bumper harvest is expected. The Congress is beginning to release the humongous stockpile of grains it had built up in anticipation of the Food Security Bill so there is expectation of food prices coming down, although how it will reduce the price of vegetables is not explained. The Current Account Deficit is expected to fall to $60 billion through a combination of increased exports, due to the weak rupee, and decreased imports, especially of gold. The Congress is desperate for the rupee to become stronger before elections next year, which will reduce our export advantage, and smugglers must be busy even now building routes to smuggle gold into India. The government has cleared 99 projects worth Rs 3 trillion without explaining where the money is going to come from. Clearing projects is of no use unless they are implemented and it may take years to get all the clearances. Also if the totally corrupt Private Public Partnership route is followed it will merely result in prices so high as to be unaffordable for the people while resulting in windfall gains for cronies. Foreign Direct Investment was $13 billion till August but Foreign Institutional Investors poured $16 billion into our stock market. So foreigners prefer to invest in stocks so that they can make a quick exit but do not want to be tied down for the long term. The Sensex has reached a record 21,196 this morning but is nervously waiting to find out when the Fed will start to wind down its bond buying program. Inflation remains uncontrolled and the RBI increased the Repo rate by 25 basis points 3 days back. The HSBC manufacturing PMI for October was 49.6, which is the third straight month of contraction. The real danger is that the Fiscal Deficit is threatening to explode. As a result of extortionate taxes, which reduces demand by increasing prices, revenue collection is 36.9% of budgeted amount compared to 37.5% last year. The government has already borrowed Rs 4.12 trillion out of a target of Rs 5.42 trillion for the whole year while deficit has increased to 76% in the first half of the financial year compared to 65.6% a year ago. Adversarial economics only causes poverty. Surely the World Famous Economist should know that.
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