Sunday, September 22, 2013

Why do India and the US react differently?

When, in June, the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke predicted that he would start tapering the asset purchase program we saw a huge sell-off in Indian shares and a collapse of the rupee to 68 to the dollar. This was because funds expected interest rates to rise in the US which made the US more attractive. Interest rate on housing mortgage rose to 2.6% which led to a slow down in construction. On 20 September the RBI raised interest rate in India by 25 basis points. One would have expected the rupee to strengthen, as happened in the US, but the opposite happened. The rupee weakened. Not by much, but it definitely did not become stronger. If globalisation has linked economies so that they are supposed to rise and fall in tandem why does India react in an opposite manner to the US? Experts tell us that high interest rates make borrowing more expensive for industries, thus making it difficult for them to expand, thereby creating jobs and stimulating growth. So, lower interest rates would be good for us. Why they consistently ignore the most important financial data, which is inflation, is beyond comprehension. Inflation in the US is below 2% whereas in India it is above 9%. Wholesale prices were falling but the WPI has jumped to 6.1% in August. Harvard University Professor, Gita Gopinath says," When countries are in recessions characterised by low inflation, like the US and Europe, then demandside measures can work. If on the other hand slowing growth occurs alongside high inflation ( as in India ), exclusive reliance on demand-based measures cannot be the solution." Why then have the politicians been howling for lower rates. We know that high rates are at last beginning to bring down property prices where most of the black money is hidden. Possibly a lot of the black money was sent outside through the hawala route and then brought back into the share market as foreign investment. A process called " round tripping ".Thus a fall in both property and share prices is a double whammy on politicians and civil servants. After all it is not easy to take bribes and loot the exchequer. Poor fellows. The new Governor of the RBI is not a civil servant and perhaps not so easily intimidated by political bullies. Worse, he may even be a patriot. Whose idea was it to make him governor? Could be a very bad idea.

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