Tuesday, September 10, 2013

What if or when.

A few days back it seemed that it was only a matter of time before the US bombed Syrian government forces. Everyone was nervous because even the US did not know what to bomb. If they bombed chemical weapons stockpiles they could cause release of deadly gases with untold consequences. They would have to bomb delivery systems which the regime would hide in civilian areas as the Hezbollah did so effectively when Israel attacked Lebanon in 2006. If they bombed Assad's forces, as they did to Gaddafi in Libya in 2011, they could precipitate a collapse of the regime but then they would have no control over who came to power. Saudi Arabia is backing the Islamists and would not mind if the al-Nusra front came to power but they hate the Muslim Brotherhood, which is why they are helping the Egyptian Army with oil and money to crush the Brotherhood. For Israel either option would be dangerous. Israel would like to see a bloody stalemate where the regime and the Islamists weaken each other so that neither can mount any attack on it. Putin came up with a plan which allows everyone to save face. Under his plan Syria would hand over all chemical weapons to international monitors who would keep them secure and presumably destroy them. Oil dropped by 7 dollars a barrel and stock markets around the world rejoiced. But what if the regime demands that rebels should also have to give up their stock of chemical weapons which they are known to have? What if the Islamists refuse? Would the US then bomb the rebels? What if Assad hands over some but hides the rest? How will they know? And then there are the Christians. Muslim Brotherhood members are forcing 15,000 Christian Copts in the village of Dalga in Egypt to pay 200-500 Egyptian pounds per day as Jizya. Jizya is the money, or tribute " that conquered non-Muslims historically had to pay their Islamic overlords with willing submission and while feeling themselves subdued ". About 10% or 2 million of Syrians are Christians. When rebel fighters gained control of the Christian town of Maaloula they destroyed churches and ordered people to convert to Islam or be killed. Christians allege that government troops deliberately withdrew from the town and allowed the rebels to gain control. The middle-east is a cesspit of fanatics who always have reasons to kill. Perhaps it is not a question of what if but when.

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