Friday, May 10, 2013

The books will need to be balanced at some point.

In a frantic effort to win the next elections the Congress is piling on social schemes without explaining where the money is going to come from. On the one hand they promise to reduce expenditure to reduce fiscal and Current Account deficits while on the other they are promising free cell phones to everyone, a Backward Regions Grant Fund to target 1500 sub-districts and now the Food Security Bill. This along with direct money transfer based on Aadhar numbers will, they hope, carry them to 5 more years of power and untold wealth from corruption. The Backward Region Grants Fund will cost Rs 750 billion in the next 4 years, of which Rs 450 billion will be needed in the first two. The Food Security Bill will guarantee rice at Rs 3 per kg, wheat at Rs 2 per kg and other grains at Re 1 per kg. According to government figures the total cost for old and new commitments will be Rs 950 billion or $17.5 billion but the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, which is part of the Ministry of Agriculture, estimates that it is likely to cost Rs 6.82 trillion or $120 billion. Wall Street Journal, 8 May. This money will be required over the first 3 years that the new commitments are implemented which means that the government will have to find Rs 2.27 trillion or about  $42 billion each year. The intention is to cover 75% of rural and 50% of urban people making a total of 800 million. On top of the expense of buying food grains massive investment will be required in infrastructure such as distribution, warehousing and transportation. Government borrowing was Rs 4.67 trillion and these 2 schemes will add another Rs 3 trillion so where will the money come from? No country in the world, not even the US and China combined, can distribute nearly free food to almost a billion people unless it is combined with a promise of fewer children so that the burden keeps reducing every succeeding year. While increasing wasteful expense wantonly in its insatiable desire to loot the Congress has to keep one eye on the deficit so as not to suffer another credit downgrade to junk status. So it has been killing the middle class with unbearable taxes on everything, increasing inflation and reducing consumer spending, thus severely hurting the goose laying golden eggs. This government has also passed a Right to Education Act which will cost Rs 25 billion this year. According to the budget RTE along with Sarva Siksha Abhiyan will cost Rs 272.58 billion this year but the true cost is likely to be Rs 400 billion. Livemint, 5 April. Quantitative Easing in the US and Japan along with near zero interest rates are causing a flood of foreign money into the Indian stock and bond markets supporting the rupee and our foreign exchange reserves. Elections in states this year and general elections next year will release a deluge of black money, stimulating the economy. But the books will need to be balanced at some point. What happens then?

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