Saturday, March 16, 2013

Election economics will end in tragedy.

The Congress us ready to sacrifice the country to win general elections again. To win in 2009 they started the NREGA scheme which pays rural people for 100 days a year of fictitious work, increased salaries of useless civil servants by 80% and forgave loans of farmers. That increased the Non Performing Assets of public sector banks, caused the  Consumer Price Index to rise by over 10% every year, the fiscal deficit to balloon forcing the government to borrow more driving up interest rates and levy punishing taxes on all goods and services, increasing inflation and reducing consumer demand. Elections are due again next year and the Congress is trying to find new ways of bribing voters to win again. They have already passed the Right to Education Act which forces private schools to reserve 25% of seats for poor children in their area which is a sly tax on the middle class, who have to pay more for their children, to compensate. That this is nothing but a cynical ploy to get votes was highlighted by an article in the New York Times of 26 February according to which at least 26 million children between the ages of 6 and 14 years are working in shops, kitchens, farms, factories, constructions sites and mines in spite of a law passed in 2010 which mandates that children of that age group must be in school. In Meghalaya children work in " rat hole " coal mines, owned by politicians, without any safety equipment. Many die regularly. The Food Security Bill will be passed soon and will add Rs 2.5 trillion to government expenses and a Backward Regions Grant aims to spend Rs 750 billion over the next 4 years, of which Rs 450 billion will be spent in the first 2 years. Already 150 backward districts have been covered. Now the government is working on a National Right to Homestead Bill which will guarantee 10 cents or one tenth of an acre of land to the rural homeless. This will enable a homeless family to build a shelter for themselves, grow vegetables and rear poultry or goats for food supplement. There is a thundering silence on how the government intends to pay for all this without adding to the already dismal fiscal deficit and without increasing already unbearable taxes. " Based on the available investment data, we estimate that savings will plunge even further to a 10-year low of 27% of GDP in FY 13," said Sonal Verma, Nomura India Economist. ET, 4 February. Domestic savings has been falling from a high of 36.9% of GDP in 2007-08 to 34% in 201-11 to 30.8% last year. The fall in domestic savings will push up the Current Account Deficit which will lead to a fall in the rupee and rocketing inflation. Sadly all these laws, ostensibly to help the poor, are not because of altruism, economic calculation or even due to ideology but a totally selfish sacrifice of national well being just to win elections. Thus it is naked treason. Sadly we are powerless to stop it.

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