Why China succeeded.

Everyone talks about double digit growths in China for decades making it the second richest country in the world today. They talk about an authoritarian government able to take instant decisions, a compliant population obeying party orders, a currency kept artificially low and low labor costs allowing manufacture and export of cheap products all over the world. No one listens to what the Chinese are saying. All of the above are true but the Chinese say that their one-child policy also played a great part in their astonishing growth story. China introduced its one-child policy in 1978 which applied to the first born of 1979. After introduction of the policy fertility per woman fell from 3 per woman in 1980 ( it was 5 per woman in the 1970s ) to 1.8 per woman in 2008 and then to 1.3 per woman in 2011. The government reckons that it prevented 400 million extra births and resulted in better health for women, greater individual savings, economic growth, fewer slums, fewer epidemics, less pressure on the environment, less waste production and less abuse of fertile land leading to less pressure on the ecosystem. It also allowed vast numbers of women to join the work force bringing down wages which made manufacturing more competitive as labor costs were very low. The policy covered only 40% of the population as minorities were exempt and rural people were allowed to have 2 children and yet led to the phenomenal growth which has pulled hundreds of millions out of poverty and raised the standard of living to western standards. Critics claim that the policy is against human rights and the preference for male children means social conflict in the future as men compete to find wives. As numbers of young people fall wage costs will rise, which is happening already, and a situation could arise where the number of retired elderly is more than the number of working young. However, when a country has built world class infrastructure and has more than $3 trillion in foreign reserves it can change policies to suit its people. The Pew Research Center has found that 76% of people support the policy. Sadly, pig-headed politicians in India refuse to learn. They prefer an illiterate poor population that can be bought with handouts and deceived with caste and religion to get votes. The poor need support to survive but this cannot go on infinitely for an infinite number of people. All we need to do is to pass a bill that anyone born after 1996, that is 16 year olds who are not yet married, will not get any social support if they have more than one child. This should be broadcast one radio, TV and by SMS on cell phones. The poor are not fools. Once they realise that fertility will not be rewarded they will automatically reduce families. The results will come within 4-5 years. Else we will be reduced to junk status and remain there.

Bofors stink rises again.

The man who handed over 300 documents to Chitra Subramaniam of the Hindu to reveal the corruption in the Bofors deal 25 years ago, has revealed himself. MSN.com. He is Sten Lindstrom, the then head of police in Sweden who says," There was no evidence that he ( Rajiv Gandhi ) had received any bribe. But he watched the massive cover-up in India and Sweden and did nothing. Many Indian institutions were tarred, innocent people were punished while the guilty got away. The evidence against Ottavio Quattrocchi was conclusive. Through a front company called AE Services, bribes paid by Bofors landed in Quattrocchi's account which he subsequently cleared out because India said there was no evidence linking him to the Bofors deal. Nobody in Sweden or Switzerland was allowed to interrogate him." He goes on," He ( Managing Director of Bofors, Martin Ardbo ) had written in his notes that the identity of N ( Arun Nehru ) becoming public was a minor concern but at no cost could the identity of Q ( Quattrocchi ) be revealed because of his closeness to R ( Rajiv Gandhi ). Under pressure from Swedish and Indian media and with the threat of a cancellation of the contract hanging over them Bofors sent its executives to India with the one-point task of giving out the names. Nobody of any consequence received them." Bofors deal was signed in March 1986. In April 1987, Swedish Radio exposed kickbacks. JPC was set up but reported after 2 years. No action taken on the report. In December 1989, Prime Minister, VP Singh barred Bofors from entering any contracts in India. No arrests made. In January 1990, CBI registered complaint. On May 21, 1991 Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated. In July 1993, Quattrocchi left India to avoid arrest. So, he was enjoying himself in India for 7 years in complete freedom. In December 2000, Quattrocchi was arrested in Malaysia but was given bail and told not to leave the country. Nothing happens. In January 2011, Income Tax Tribunal rules that commission in violation of Indian laws was indeed paid to Quattrochhi and Win Chadha and cost the national exchequer Rs 412.4 million some 23 years ago. This would have been an enormous sum in 1989 when one dollar was just Rs 15 as opposed to Rs 53 today. Questions for every Indian are 1. In a deal between India and Sweden why was an Italian chosen as an intermediary? Who else in Italy received a cut? 2. Who was Quattrocchi's Guardian Angel? Clearly not Mr Rajiv Gandhi, because he was allowed to leave India 2 years after Mr Gandhi died. 3. Why did VP Singh of Janata Dal and AB Vajpayee of the BJP, who like Brutus, claim to be honorable men, not take any action? Were all political parties part of the cover-up? If so, what inducements did they get in return? 4. On February 14, 2 fishermen were shot off the coast of Kerala by Italian marines aboard the ship, Enrica Lexie. On April 20, our Central Government told the Supreme Court that they should be released because the murder happened outside India's territorial waters. So, is the Guardian Angel still around and saving Italians at the cost of the Indian state? That is why Union Carbide got away after murdering thousands in Bhopal. Indian politicians are the enemies of the people. Until these are removed Indians will continue to suffer and die at the hands of foreigners.

In cuckoo land.

About 2 weeks back finance ministry officials were trying to convince S&P Credit Analyst, Takahira Ogawa that India's credit rating should be increased. HT online, April 27. Over 2 hours they cited improved growth prospects, increased revenues and efforts to contain government deficit. Mr Ogawa listened politely giving no sign of what he was thinking and yesterday S&P reduced our credit rating to BBB-, saying that there is a 1 in 3 chance of a downgrade to junk status. What is frightening is, not that S&P did not believe their chatter, but that they actually believed their own fantasy. " We were not expecting this downgrade," said one official. " We made a presentation arguing India's growth prospects, tax-GDP ratio, efforts to fix the fiscal deficit are quite genuine and deserve better ratings than countries like Tunisia," said an official who was present at the meeting. Really? India's growth was fueled by cheap money coming from abroad and not by increasing exports. The sub prime crisis in 2008 in the US coincided with a massive injection of liquidity by the Indian government in the form of writing off of all farmers' loans, reducing excise duties and service tax from 12.5% to 10.5%, increasing civil servant salaries by 80% and starting the MNREGA scheme which doles out money to rural people for 100 days every year. This was done to win general elections in 2009. The result was a spike in inflation, which has not been controlled by 13 rate rises, and ballooning deficit. Increased revenues are not because of increase in production, as shown by Index of Industrial Production which has dropped from 9.7% in 2008 to 3.9% in 2012, but because of extortionate rise in taxes which adds to inflation and reduces consumer purchasing power. The desperation of the government was shown by the General Anti Avoidance Rule in this year's budget which aims to tax trade deals retrospectively going back up to 50 years. This is to get round a Supreme Court verdict which held that Vodafone is not liable for a withholding tax of Rs 110 billion on its purchase of Hutch for $11.1 billion. So what of the World Famous Economist who was supposed to take us to the promised land? Moody's Analytics said, " The single biggest factor weighing on the outlook is the Indian government. In all economies it is impossible to separate the economic from the political outlook and that is particularly the case in India." The report further noted that there is broad-based weakness in the economy as all sectors are vulnerable. The report termed the Prime Minister as an " ageing technocrat who now appears tired of the rough and tumble of Indian politics". It is being suggested that Indonesia should replace India as the "I" in BRICS. Oh dear! All those foreign visits and banquets! What is it they say about lying to all the people all the time?

Mother of all ponzi schemes.

Passengers travelling through Delhi airport will now have to pay Rs 462 for domestic and Rs 1068 for international flights making Delhi the most expensive airport in the world. Plans are afoot to tax, not just departing passengers, but arriving and transiting passengers as well. This when private airlines have a collective debt of over Rs 140 billion and are making huge losses putting the future of the entire industry in doubt. The government is also considering raising the price of diesel which would not be a bad thing if taxes are reduced at the same time. Any rise in diesel price will immediately raise inflation which is running at 7% while food inflation is at 10%. Inflation is hated by every country in the world because it reduces buying power and thereby reduces growth. So why are our lot so tolerant of such high inflation. Because about 20% of Indians are rated as middle class which means 240 million people. That is more than the combined populations of France 64 million, Germany 60 billion, Britain 82 million and the Netherlands 17 million. So what constitutes this middle class. There are those in private companies where salaries have been rising at over 10% per year but they would not be more than 20 million. Then there are government employees, politicians, property dealers, shopkeepers and middlemen who generate vast quantities of black money which can only be usefully invested in property. But even if the total of all these people comes to 100 million that still leaves 140 million with a lot of money but no source of income. These are people who have benefited from the 800% rise in property prices in major cities by selling their land and ancestral properties to developers. The Budh International Circuit hosting Formula 1 races in Greater Noida is a vivid example. The developers spent Rs 12-15 billion in acquiring land and building infrastructure. Villagers who sold their land for tens of millions of rupees have suddenly become very wealthy. Beautiful new houses have been built and luxury cars bought. One fellow even chartered a helicopter for his son's wedding. These people are farmers with no other skills and their children are not inclined to waste time in studies, so they are living on their one-off wealth. Since they have no other income their wealth will gradually disappear. Politicians know that and are desperate for property prices to stay high so that more people make money by selling their land. That is why the RBI was forced to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points in spite of high inflation. So, the government is running a gigantic ponzi scheme and like all such schemes it will crash. They are desperate to somehow postpone a meltdown till after the 2014 general elections. This is what our Chief Economic Adviser, Kaushik Basu was hinting at when he said that there will be no reforms before 2014. Standard and Poor's has cut our sovereign credit rating to BBB- which is just above junk status. Should we start to look out for the four horsemen?

No carrot, only stick.

India is a police state where politicians see themselves as feudal rulers and beat up citizens while they remain above the law. Taking their cue from politicians government officials treat people with extreme brutality. On April 22 a 9 year old girl, whose father is a soldier, shot herself in the head while playing with her father's loaded pistol while both parents had gone to the station to drop relatives. The shocked father tried to shoot himself but family members deflected the gun and the bullet hit the roof. Was the grieving father offered sympathy or counselling to deal with his enormous loss? Perish the thought. Local police are deciding whether to charge him with attempted suicide, which is still a crime in India, and negligence in caring for his weapon. In India people mostly use gas for cooking which is supplied by state owned companies in metal bottles called " cylinders ". One cylinder contains 14.2 kg of gas and costs Rs 400 to refill. Couple of years ago people in Delhi were encouraged to change to piped gas, also supplied by a state owned company, because it will cost less. Most people complied happily. Guess what? Now monthly bills for a small family comes to around Rs 600 whereas previously a cylinder used to last for 6 weeks, an escalation of 50%. Most people still had unused cylinders which they would get refilled and give to their maids who thus had easy access to gas for cooking. Last year people were threatened that their gas supply would be cut off and dire penalties levied if they did not return their cylinders. Everyone did. When these poor people, desperate for cooking gas, approached gas agencies they were told that they would not be supplied unless they deposited Rs 6000 for paper work and compulsory purchase of gas cookers. Unable to afford so much money maids are having to buy gas from private sellers at Rs 75/kg which means 14 kg now cost them Rs 1050. So much for the aam aadmi. Our most revered Health Minster has invented a new stick for doctors. From now on doctors going abroad for further studies will have to sign a bond that they will return upon completion and will not be allowed to work abroad, so as to compel doctors to work in villages. This is based on the myth that the government spends millions of rupees to train a doctor. But what about students who were denied admission to government medical colleges despite having high marks, because they were of higher caste, while Reservation candidates got admission with much fewer marks? Parents of these students have to spend millions of rupees for medical education in private colleges. These doctors owe nothing to the government except humiliation, harassment and expense. So why should they sign any bond or serve in any village where they will earn little and have no opportunity for higher studies? Using force to remedy failed policies never works. But then thugs no nothing better.

What difference!

Writing in TOI today, Yuvraj Singh makes gentle fun of Pune captain, Saurav Ganguly's hair after taking Kevin Peterson's wicket against Delhi. " My hair gel bottle is lying idle and it could surely come handy for our captain if he wishes to avoid a similar ' hair raising incident '," he writes. He is joking about his own loss of hair from chemotherapy for cancer. This is some courage. Fabrice Muamba, the Bolton midfielder who suffered a cardiac arrest while playing against Spurs and was " dead " for 90 minutes, is getting ready to get back to playing again. In sports there are countless heroes who struggle against tremendous odds and still come out on top. Who would do the job of managing a football team where you have to deal with expectations of passionate fans as well billionaire owners with gigantic egos and little humanity. Del Bosque was sacked by Real Madrid one day after winning the La Liga in 2003. He went on to win the World Cup with Spain in 2010. Pep Guardiola has won everything with Barcelona and has evolved a magical method of playing that enchants everyone across the world. Yet Barcelona lost to Real Madrid on Sunday after beating them 8 times recently. The man who pulled of this feat is Jose Mourinho, also known as the " Special One ". This is not the only time he has crafted a defeat of Barcelona. In the Champions League of 2010 he was manager of Inter Milan as they took on Barca in the semi finals. Inter beat Barca 3-1 at the San Siro and then traveled to Nou Camp for the second leg. Inter had one player sent off mid way in the first half and set out to defend their lead. They kept their shape, allowed Barca to have all the possession but would not allow them any shooting chance. If Barca moved the ball wide to the left the entire Inter team moved with it and if Barca switched flanks the whole team moved in that direction. Eventually, late in the second half Barca scored but Inter held out to win 3-2 on aggregate. It was a display of most fantastic coaching you will have ever seen. A purely defensive game is usually boring but this was one of the most enthralling matches ever. Inter went to win the Champions League beating Bayern Munich 2-0 in the final. Since Mourinho left Inter has not won anything. Compare these giants to politicians and civil servants, little people with no ideas or courage, happy just to stay in their kursis for the opportunities this gives for self enrichment. Our most revered Prime Minister said 2 days back that civil servants should not be afraid to take " risks " because there will not be any " witch-hunts " if they make mistakes. People earning millions in salaries and doing nothing. How can there be such difference between human beings?

Frying pan or fire?

Speaking in front of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the Chief Economic Advisor to the government, Kaushik Basu said that government policy making will be paralysed till general elections in 2014 following which " you would see a rush of important reforms " and post 2015 India will be one of the " fastest growing economies " in the world. TOI, April 21. Following his comments there was a lot of criticism of Mr Basu. But why? We can see that nothing is happening. MPs keep abusing each other, inflation continues unchecked because deficit is out of control, bellwether companies are forecasting lower profits and the rupee is balanced on a diving board ready to go down. In desperation the RBI was forced to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points to inflate property and share prices to push up volumes of hot money and black money in circulation to somehow stimulate growth. Following a meeting IMF directors said about India," They agreed that policy rates should be kept unchanged until inflation is clearly on a downward trend, given the uncertain outlook for growth." MSN.com, April 19. They also said that the RBI should be encouraged to stand ready to raise rates if inflation starts to rise again and fiscal consolidation is crucial to crowd in private investment and lower inflationary pressures. They would like to see tax reform and introduction of GST, let rupee depreciate and intervene only to contain volatility. In other words, control inflation, reduce government spending, introduce tax reform and conserve foreign exchange by not unnecessarily supporting the rupee. We have been saying the same for a long time. So why the frenzy of criticism and denials after Mr Basu's comments? Is it because he is implying that nothing can happen as long as the Congress is in power and reforms can only happen if they are booted out in 2014 or is it because his comments imply that the World Famous Economist, who has been built up as some kind of genius by the freeloading media, actually does not have a clue? Our most revered Finance Minister, who is also in Washington, said," There is no question of policy paralysis in New Delhi. I do not agree with them." Doth he protest too much? Right on cue, Mr Basu has denied that he said there will be no reforms, clarifying his comments," Among the reforms that will happen,I hope, is, subsidy reform." TOI, today. He said," In India leakage is so big that if we can cut this down, it will help cut our fiscal deficit..." In other words, not sure that any reform can really take place because politicians and civil servants are stealing us blind and it is not in their interest to change. From the frying pan straight into the fire. Oh dear.

Does India belong to Indians.

In a shocking development the central government told the Supreme court on Friday that Kerala Police cannot detain the Italian ship, Enrica Lexie because its crew murdered 2 Indian fishermen outside territorial waters, thus cravenly accepting Italian lies. Before elections in 5 states, including UP, the government had insisted that the murder had taken place inside our waters and the 2 marines will be tried in our courts. The Italian government says that since the incident happened in international waters the marines should be tried in Italian courts and moved the Supreme Court for custody of the marines. The Italian government has also offered Rs 10 million as compensation for each of the victims. The Supreme Court refused to accept the government's submission. " We don't expect such a stand of the central government. It is unfortunate when persons killed on February 14 are within Indian territory," the Court said. Kerala Chief Minister, Oommen Chandy said," We will stand by our position that the incident took place in our waters and we will try them under our laws." However, Chandy is from the Congress and we have to see if his bravado can withstand direct orders from the Capo. Italy is where the mafia was born and still rules. A list of former Prime Ministers reads like a rogues gallery. Bettino Craxi hid in Tunisia to escape prison. Giulio Andreotti was tried many times but never convicted. Silvio Berlusconi is still under investigation and facing serious charges but has been able to escape prison so far by using his media empire to be elected Prime Minister so that he could not be prosecuted. He not only paid an under age prostitute, Karima al Mahroug but used his influence with the police to get her released from custody. We know why the Italian government is able to dictate terms to us. Through proper channel, of course. Just one question - Would the Italians dare to use such facetious excuse to deny the crime if the incident occurred off the coast of China and 2 Chinese fishermen were killed? The Chinese would have shoved a cattle prod up the tender part of the Italian Foreign Minister's anatomy and switched it on. Sadly since independence the Congress has sought to make us weak. Nehru chose to go to the UN over Kashmir when Gen Cariappa begged for 24 hours, accepted Chinese rule over Tibet and got hammered by the Chinese as thanks and refused a Security Council seat when Taiwan withdrew. China gratefully accepted. Indira Gandhi returned 80,000 Pakistani soldiers for a handful of lies at Shimla and we allowed the Chinese into the WTO without anything in return. Even after the Mumbai attacks of 2009 we choose to go on " bended knees " to talk peace. The Italian ship and crew will be released and the money will be stolen by local civil servants so that the families will get nothing just as happened after the Bhopal tragedy. Our politicians see us as disposable. If only we could dispose of them.

Crime and punishment.

In the US 16 Amish men and women have been charged with hate crime in a court in Ohio. Amish are a sect of people who choose to live a simple life without modern gadgets. Amish women do not cut their hair and men do not shave following marriage. A dispute developed between two groups within this community and one group attacked their opponents by chopping of their beards and taking their denuded photos to shame them. The report does not mention whether the victims were shaved leaving cheeks pink nude or a stubble was left behind as facial underwear but authorities decided to treat this as a heinous crime. By the beard of the prophet! In Britain, Home Secretary, Theresa May is accused of getting her dates wrong when rearresting Abu Qatada for deportation to Jordan. Mrs May was of the opinion that Qatada's 3 month limit to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights expired at midnight on Monday, April 16 so he was arrested on Tuesday morning. His lawyers say that the Court set the limit on January 17 so it was set to expire at midnight on Tuesday, April 17 and filed an appeal late Tuesday night. Court officials agreed with Qatada's lawyers and admitted the appeal leaving Mrs May facing charges of incompetence. She has been mocked for having attended a glitzy celebrity party with X Factor judges including Tulisa Contostavlos whose sex tape has gone viral on the internet. Seems that, in Britain, politics, sex and virus do not mix. Meanwhile, protesters in Bahrain are angry with Formula One supremo, Bernie Ecclestone for going ahead with the Grand Prix in Bahrain tomorrow, Sunday. They say this legitimises the present regime. Protests have become larger and police have reacted with tear gas, baton charges and arrests. Bahrain has a 70% Shia population ruled by a Sunni minority which is exactly the opposite of Syria where an 80% Sunni majority is ruled by minority Alawite Shias. However, there is no Security Council resolution or sanctions on Bahrain because the US Fifth Fleet is based there whereas the Syrian regime has been hammered by sanctions and threatened with trial for human rights abuses in front of the International Criminal Court. The solution is simple. Just switch the regimes between Bahrain and Syria. Thus Bashar Al Assad becomes President of Bahrain and Sheikh Hamad Ibn Isa Al Khalifa becomes the King of Syria. All it needs is a good removals company and several large transport planes. No fighting, no death or injuries and no need to see Hilary Clinton breathing fire, which is really scary. Sadly such an eminently logical solution will not be adopted because then the Security Council will become redundant and Obama will have to find another job for Susan Rice. If only life were simple.

Trade war loometh?

A financial industry group, SIFMA has released a letter to the US Finance Secretary, Timothy Geithner which says that the Indian Finance Bill " includes two dozen amendments that would retroactively create tax liabilities, some for periods of up to 50 years". WSJ online, March 18. The letter goes on to claim that the amendments " are inconsistent with India's specific obligations to the US under the current bilateral treaty ". This is taken as a hint that companies may go to international arbitration as Vodafone has already threatened to do. The government has already backed down on proposals to levy penalties on Coal India Ltd, if it does not increase output, after objections from The Children's Investment Fund, TCI which owns 1% of CIL shares. Penalties have been reduced to insignificant amounts. In 2008 TCI fought for higher dividend for the 9.9% it owned in Japanese utility, Electric Power Development or J-Power. Eventually TCI had to back down and sold out at a significant loss. But India is not Japan which ran huge trade surpluses based on exports to the US and Europe. India desperately needs foreign investment as the Current Account Deficit is above 4%. Exports grew 21% last year to $303.7 billion, which is better than government forecast of $300 billion, but imports grew 32.1% to $488.6 billion of which oil accounted for $155.6 billion and gold and silver for $61.5 billion. A trade deficit of $188.9 billion. Norwegian telecom company, Telenor wants compensation from the government for its cancelled 2G licence while Russian telecom company, Sistema has invoked bilateral trade treaty between India and Russia to protect its $3.1 billion investment. Sistema may have to take a charge of $1 billion on its books for the cancelled 2G licence. If the government has to defend itself against so many companies at international arbitration it will have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in legal fees and may end up paying costs if it loses. At the very least the bad publicity will result in a fall of Foreign Direct Investment which the country desperately needs. The government is hoping to raise $90 billion from sale of shares of public sector companies to plug its fiscal deficit but last month government owned Life Insurance Corporation of India had to step in when there were no offers for 5% of Oil and Natural Gas Company. Effectively transferring money from one pocket to another. Criminal politicians and thieving civil servants are so used to extorting money as taxes from the docile Indian public that they think they can treat foreign companies with the same lack of respect. Not true. It may end up being a costly lesson. Trouble is that we will end up paying.

Games people play.

US Security Agents, sent to Cartagena in Colombia to prepare for President Obama's visit, were caught with their pants down. On April 11, having nothing to do, some of them decided to visit a strip club called Pleyclub, following which they brought some women back to their hotel. Problem was the hotel was supposed to be a secure area. Unfortunately, next morning one of the men tried to save money by offering one of the women less than what had been decided. " It was $800 but he only gave me $30," the woman claimed. That is some bargaining. No professional woman is ever going to put up with such an affront. The woman raised a stink, the hotel called the police, the police called the embassy and a scandal blew up. One of the men has retired, one has resigned and one has been sacked but is allowed to appeal. Red faces all round. Moral of the story - Never bargain with a professional woman inside a secure zone. Always escort her far away first. Meanwhile, the propaganda channel, BBC broadcast a video prepared by Huberta von Voss-Wittig, wife of Germany's UN Ambassador, Peter Wittig and Sheila Lyall Grant, wife of Britain's UN Ambassador, Mark Lyall Grant, in which they show pictures of children injured in shelling by government forces in Syria while they ask Asma Assad, wife of President Bashar al Assad, to take a risk and " stand up for peace for the sake of your people ". They are asking viewers to sign an online petition to Asma asking her to make a stand against her husband. " As a woman, wife and mother, she cannot hide behind her husband," they say. Perhaps they do not know the role of women in a Muslim country in the middle east, even if she has been brought up in London and had a western education. What is she to do? If Assad resigns he will have to keep running for the rest of his life. He may even be killed by his own people. She and her children may be killed. At best she may have to bring them up in hiding in some country which may offer asylum but where they will never be safe. Examples are many. Cleopatra's son Caesarian was murdered. The entire family of Tsar Nicholas, including all the children, was wiped out. Father of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman's family was slaughtered in an army coup, only Sheikh Hasina survived. As a mother she will fight like a tigress to protect her children no matter what the cost. Pity these 2 sanctimonious, self righteous women did not make a video to Samantha Cameron and Carla Bruni while their husbands were bombing 30,000 Libyans to death. They did not start an online petition to Cherie Blair and Laura Bush while their husbands were murdering 500,000 Iraqis. Perhaps they suffer from the common delusion that we Asians are grateful to die at the hands of white skins. It is time they learn that death is absolute and loved ones always suffer.

Shadow of the Emergency.

The Congress still retains its power over public institutions. Yesterday the RBI succumbed to pressure and lowered interest rates by 50 basis points on the mealy-mouthed excuse of stimulating growth. Over the last 3 years the RBI raised rates 13 times to control runaway inflation, so has it succeeded. Wholesale Price Index was fractionally down to 6.89% in March against 6.95% in February but still much higher than RBI target of 5%. However, Consumer Price Index, which actually affects people, was 9.47% in March as against 8.83% in February, milk products rising by 15.22%, eggs, fish and meat by 10.06% and vegetables by 9.55%. One reason for the inflation, sited by the RBI, is wage inflation among unskilled rural workers. This is due to the MNREGA scheme, started by the Congress in 2008 to win the general elections of 2009, in which rural people are paid for 100 days of every year for doing nothing. The payment started at Rs 100/day but has risen to Rs 162/day because it is linked to inflation. Thus rural wages went up by just under 20% between April 2011 and February 2012 resulting in rising food prices. Salaries of useless civil servants are also linked to inflation and Dearness Allowance has already been raised by 7% to 75% of basic salary. Since this is completely non productive spending the only way for the government to meet its obligations is to borrow from the market. The RBI will be selling bonds worth Rs 160 billion on Friday out of Rs 500 billion over the next 3 weeks. ET, March 18. Already bond yields have risen to 8.38%. Since the government always runs a deficit, at some point interest payment on debt will surely be more than tax receipts. What happens then? It is not fantasy. It happened to Iceland, Ireland and Greece so it could easily happen here especially if the Congress stays in power for much longer. However, the RBI is not the only institution to cave in. The Supreme Court, in its wisdom, has ruled that private schools which receive no aid from the government will nevertheless have to reserve 25% of seats for children of poor people from surrounding areas. There is no limit on how many children any couple can produce. The government will pay Rs 6000-18000 per child per year depending on the area. Schools will naturally make up the shortfall in revenue by increasing fees for other children who are being penalised because government school teachers are completely useless and do not come to work even though they receive 3 times the salaries of teachers in private schools. Even the poor prefer to send their children to private schools. Like any police state politicians in India hate the middle class. Instead of increasing the standard of living they seek to bring everyone down to the level of the illiterate, naked aam aadmi. That is the only way they can remain khas.

Whose Haqqanis are they?

Attackers there were many. The US insists they were Haqqani. The ISI do not know of any. Even if they are Pakistani. Zardari came offering trade and money. Our lot fed him biryani. It's the same old litany. Only the dead refrain from villainy. The Taliban announced the advent of spring with a well coordinated attack on Kabul and 3 provincial towns. The good thing was that the Afghan army, with help from NATO forces, was able to resist the attackers killing 47. The BBC credited British Special Forces for regaining a partially constructed building used by the militants as their base. The US instantly blamed the Haqqani network, indirectly blaming Pakistan for not wiping out group and forgetting that Jalaluddin Haqqani, the founder of the group, was a prize CIA asset during the 1980s against the Soviets. He even visited Ronald Reagan's White House as special guest. Former US Congressman, Charlie Wilson, who raise funds for the resistance, once described Jalaluddin Haqqani as " goodness personified ". HT online, April 17. There must have been wide smiles and large pegs of single malt at ISI headquarters in Islamabad. Until news came of Taliban assault on the Central Jail at Bannu in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province in which 380 prisoners, including ones on death row, escaped. Not Abbottabad again. Adnan Rashid, on death row for attempting to assassinate former president Pervez Musharaf, who is presently hiding in Britain, also escaped. Apparently Rashid kept in touch with the outside world on cell phones, Facebook and other networking sites and even wrote his own blogs. It might be in the boonies but the Central Jail in Bannu is certainly more liberal than Mamata Banerjee's Bengal where you get beaten up by Trinamul thugs for posting innocent cartoons. Around 400 members of Trinamul students wing, based in Kolkata, Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore and even London, have infiltrated social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter and Orkut and report directly to Trinamul Bhavan. " We've zeroed in on many people, but the Jadavpur University professor was the first we decided to take action against," said a Trinamul Congress leader. The Stasi would have been proud. Some foreign intellectuals including Noam Chomsky have written to the Prime Minister to protest against police atrocities in Bengal. At last the world is taking notice of Bengal. This could even be a tourist attraction - Come to Bengal and watch live action as Trinamul workers beat up professors. Before elections Ms Banerjee promised that she would make Kolkata as famous as London. She is certainly trying her best but she should also remember that parliamentary elections are due in 2014 and her party will be wiped out. Her day of reckoning will surely come.

More is definitely not good.

Our most revered Finance Minister is very proud that companies building highways pay the government large sums of money to get the contract rather than the government paying them for construction. The government has received Rs 30 billion from such " premium ". In return the company is given a 30 year monopoly in collecting toll fees from vehicles. To make a profit companies set up toll booths every 25 kms charging anything from Rs 25-98 from cars and more from trucks wasting time, wasting petrol and leading to increased prices as the cost of transport is passed along to consumers. One car trip from Delhi to Vadodara in Gujarat, a distance of nearly 1000 kms, cost a total of Rs 751 at 18 separate toll booths. The road was good in short stretches but there were long stretches where the surface was broken, as near Udaipur, or construction work was going on, as between Delhi and Jaipur, causing long delays. People, therefore, try to avoid road travel as much as possible and companies keep whining for increase in toll rates. Delhi International Airport Ltd is asking for an increase of 774% in airport charges from passengers because it is unable to meet interest payments on its loans. As costs go up passengers crowd low cost airlines reducing revenues. Every domestic airline, except Indigo, is making huge losses. Now banks are refusing to lend money to infrastructure companies that bid aggressively for projects last year. GMR, the company which built Delhi airport and is now begging for increase in airport charges, has bid for Kishangarh-Udaipur-Ahmedabad highway expecting revenue at Rs 6.36 billion per year when expected revenue is Rs 5.50 billion per year. BSPCL Infrastructure has paid a premium of Rs 290 million for a road construction contract of Rs 1.20 billion. Indiabulls has won a contract for a 1500 MW power plant which will provide electricity at Rs 0.85 per unit, less than half of what other companies were offering. Naturally, companies cannot deliver on such bizarre contracts which are later revised, increasing costs by many times. Maybe that is what companies depend on. Get the contract, start work, then complain about lack of funds, with suitable greasing of palms, and get more money out of suffering taxpayers. The central government auctioned 3G telecom licenses raising Rs 1 trillion. Even though 2 years have passed 3G services have not taken off. Mr. Kapil Sibal, Telecom Minister said," 3G has not delivered because they paid such huge prices for the spectrum and there is no liquidity in the market to invest in infrastructure and the devices to deliver 3G, for which 2G was successful but 3G was not." Unfortunately, the Supreme Court has cancelled all 122 2G licenses and ordered them to be auctioned because former Telecom Minister has been judged to have distributed licenses to favorites who then sold them for huge profits. Roads, power plants, bridges, airports are being built all over the world. How can our fellows not learn how to do it properly. Maybe they do not want to learn. Black money?

Women are no better.

A chemistry professor at Jadavpur University in Kolkata, Prof Ambikesh Mohapatra was arrested on April 13 for posting a cartoon of Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee, Railway Minister, Mukul Roy and former Railway Minister, Dinesh Trivedi on a popular social networking site. TOI, April 14. The cartoon was about how Mr Trivedi was made to disappear as Railway Minister by Ms Banerjee and her chamcha, Mukul Roy. Prof Mohapatra has been booked for outraging the modesty of a woman punishable by 1 year in prison, defamation which carries a maximum of 2 years in prison and hacking which is punishable with 3 years in prison and a fine of Rs 200,000. He was beaten up by 15 Trinamul thugs. Ms Banerjee has banned certain newspapers from state funded libraries because it is her wish. On February 5, a 37 year old mother of two leaving a nightclub on Park Street was gang raped. Ms Banerjee saw that as a " conspiracy to malign her government ". Senior IPS officer, Damayanti Sen, who proved that rape actually occurred, has been transferred from her post as Joint Commissioner of Police ( Crime ) to Deputy Inspector General of Police ( Training ). Effectively a punishment for proving Banerjee wrong. Ms Banerjee defended her decision by saying " it is the prerogative of my government to get the job done by someone who can perform in a better way ". Ms Banerjee's " better way " means not to investigate a rape but to cast false aspersions against the victim's character. Deaths of scores of infants in government hospitals is also a conspiracy against her government. On February 22, two senior CPM members, Pradip Ta and Kamal Gayen were murdered by Trinamul thugs in Burdwan. Ms Banerjee seemed unperturbed. She has been in the news for repeatedly stalling any reform by the union government. She appears to be suffering from paranoid delusions and sociopathic tendencies but her biggest failure is that there has been absolutely no development in Bengal since her election one year ago. People are ashamed of having voted for her and would dearly love to see her back permanently. But she is not alone. Ms Mayawati spent tens of millions of rupees of taxpayer money erecting statues herself. She sent a private plane from Lucknow to Mumbai to fetch her pair of slippers she had forgotten. That pair must now be the world's most expensive pair. Ms Jayalalita had cardboard cutouts of herself all over Tamil Nadu. And we must not forget the darkest hour in our history - Indira Gandhi's emergency from 1975-1977 when she corrupted every institution including the Supreme Court which is yet to recover to this day.Lastly, we must not forget Ms Sonia Gandhi, whose influence is quietly wrecking the economy just to get her son installed as Prime Minister. Men are accused as aggressive, corrupt and greedy. Women are no better. Could even be worse, at least in India.

1991 once again?

The Index of Industrial Production or IIP for January was announced as 6.8% and there was much froth about accelerating growth but this has now been corrected to 1.14%. This is a decrease of 84%. The IIP for February has been announced at 4.1%. Should we expect it to go down to 0.8%? Apparently sugar production was reported as 13.4 million tonnes when it was actually 5.8 million tonnes. This was due to incorrect reporting by the Directorate of Sugar in the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution. Surely the minister should take action. Such figures could play havoc further down the chain in Directorates of Syrup or Cola Drinks or Ice Cream. Indians must be the luckiest people in the world to have so many ministries and directorates taking care of us. Naturally, the Current Account Deficit has crossed 4% when 3% is taken to be the red line. This is beginning to resemble 1991 when CAD was close to 4% and the Narasimha Rao government devalued the rupee by 24% in 3 days to stimulate export, borrowed $2.2 billion dollars from the IMF and pledged 67 tonnes of gold with the Bank of England and the Union Bank of Switzerland to raise another $600 million. " In 1991, the global situation was relatively more reassuring," said Samiran Chakraborty, head of India Research, Standard Chartered Bank. " But now, India's openness has increased substantially. So, in that sense, any shock in the global economy will have a large impact on the domestic sector. Hence we are kind of worried about the balance of payments despite numbers being relatively better than 1991." So what is the response of our most revered Finance Minister? He wants to work with the RBI to stimulate growth which means he has run out of ideas and is trying to force the RBI to reduce interest rates, desperately hoping that it will work. Trouble is that a reduction of 25 basis points will be of no use and large rate cuts will only cause a fall in the rupee and a rise in property prices, increasing the amount of black money in the economy, both of which will immediately spike inflation. The only remedy is to drastically reduce expenditure which the government is unable to do. Salaries of useless civil servants have been increased by 80% and Right to Education Bill has been passed which will add another Rs 2.3 trillion to expenses between 2010-2014. The Food Security Bill, promising low cost food to 70% of the population, that is 700 million people, will also be passed adding another Rs 1 trillion. Meanwhile our most revered President has already spent Rs 2 billion on foreign jaunts, with son in law and grandchildren, and is even now whooping it up on a 12 day binge through Seychelles and South Africa. And who has carried our great leader to foreign shores? Why, Air India of course, which needs Rs 400 billion to survive. Today the IMF is looking for funds to shore up the Euro, Britain is trying to reduce its debt, UBS is making losses and the US is in trouble. The only country which has money is China and the cockroach eaters will demand not only Arunachal but Assam and Sikkim as well. The Congress has repeatedly caused danger to India. Now is no exception.

Politically correct or lying?

A big fight has broken out between women in the US causing men to duck for cover. Speaking of Mitt Romney a Democrat consultant Hilary Rosen said," His wife has actually never worked in her life. She's never really dealt with the kinds of economic issues that a majority of women in this country are facing." This statement has caused a storm of outrage with Republicans taking the opportunity to laud housework and child rearing as very important work. Some have pointed out that the Ann Romney has suffered from breast cancer and multiple sclerosis. We sympathise with Ms Romney for her illnesses but that is nothing to do with the issue. Ann Romney said on Twitter," I made a choice to stay home and raise five boys. Believe me it was hard work." Perhaps it was but it is not the same as holding down a job where you have to meet deadlines, satisfy a boss and get along with colleagues. At home you are the mistress, you make your own timetable and do not have to commute through heavy traffic to your place of work. Also if your husband is earning so much that you do not need to hold a job, even with 5 boys, then you are very different from the vast majority of women who have no such option. And, if your husband was on his way to amassing a $250 million fortune based in Cayman Islands chances are that you had a choice of au pairs, nannies and servants and had to work very hard to keep them all busy. Even President Obama distanced himself from Ms Rosen who said," I apologize to Ann Romney and anyone else who was offended. Let's declare peace in this phony war and go back to focus on substance." Phony indeed. Romney has dismal poll ratings among women, especially those with college degrees, and Republicans will clutch at any straw to gain a few points. Here in India another war of political correctness is raging over a commercial regarding a product called Clean and Dry Intimate Wash which is to private parts what Fair and Lovely is to your face. Apparently the commercial shows a woman's husband becoming more enamored after she uses the product. Women are incensed at what they see as glorifying fair skin and have taken to trashing the commercial in droves. Firstly, companies marketing skin whitening products are making huge profits only because women buy them. Secondly, Indian women have no idea how lucky they are. While all they have to worry about is their dusky skin white women, having no such option, resort to risky, often dangerous, procedures to augment their beauty. Botox injections, breast augmentation, facial nip and tuck, liposuction and butt lift are just some of the tortures they undergo just to stay a step ahead in the race. Joan Rivers, in spite of being rich and famous, had more than 700 plastic surgeries done to her. The health scare with PIP breast implants, where the company used industrial grade silicone, is still ongoing. So instead of being politically correct Indian women should just switch off the light. Easy.

That's the way the money goes and pop........

Our most revered President, Pratibha Patil has just embarked on a 12 day visit of Seychelles and South Africa. She has already visited 22 countries across 4 continents in 12 foreign trips abroad. She has spent a total of 79 days travelling abroad and has already visited Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Bhutan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Spain, Poland, Russia, Tajikistan, Britain, Cyprus, China, Laos, Cambodia, the UAE, Syria, Mauritius, South Korea, Mongolia, Switzerland and Austria. This little gem was uncovered by RTI activist Mr Subhash Agarwal but there has been not a peep from the press. She normally takes along her son in law and grand children and 100 members of staff and press in a 747. A total of $40 million or Rs 2.05 billion has already been spent on her trips. The President is a purely ceremonial post and has no business travelling abroad unless specifically invited by another government or sent by the government of India, as the neutral head of government, to smooth over difficult relations much as the Queen does for Britain. Once schools close for the summer break politicians of every ilk will also take off for foreign shores along with family and friends. They will provide a fictitious reason to make the visit official and get the taxpayer to pay for their debauch. Since they are classified as VIPs or VVIPs there is no customs check on their retinue so they will be able to bring in any amount of contraband they like. The cost is not insignificant. Air India needs at least Rs 400 billion to survive. The airline owes Rs 4.5 billion to Delhi International Airport Ltd as fees so the airport company is asking for a 774% rise in charges on passengers. The government has already allowed a 334% rise meaning that domestic passengers will pay Rs 600 and international passengers Rs 1300-1400 per flight. Charges for passengers transiting through the airport will be Rs 330 for domestic and Rs 800 for international passengers. Taxes on airlines are already among the highest in the world and, apart from Indigo, every airline is making huge losses. Instead of reducing taxes and increasing volumes so that we have a viable aviation industry the government is considering allowing 49% foreign stake in domestic airlines. But, who would so stupid as to pour money into loss making businesses when there is no hope in hell of making profit because of high taxes. High oil prices mean that international airlines are suffering and American Airlines is already in chapter 11 bankruptcy. Sadly the freeloading press does not campaign against high taxes because they tag along with politicians for free trips. Mother India is riddled with parasites and needs drastic remedy. Only total extermination will do.

A lack of Solomon.

The European Court of Human Rights has rejected an appeal by Abu Hamza al-Masri allowing him to be extradited to the US. Four others, Babar Ahmed, Talha Ahsan, Khalid al-Fawwaz and Adel Abdul Bary will also be extradited along with Abu Hamza. They are all wanted by the US for terrorist offences and had appealed because of fear of inhuman treatment in super prisons where inmates are kept in solitary confinement for prolonged periods. Isn't it strange how the US always manages to get anyone it wants yet Raymond Davies and Amanda Knox are enjoying freedom in the US. Stranger still, the same court would not allow the transfer of Abu Qatada from Britain to Jordan where he has been sentenced to 15 years in prison also for terrorism related offences. In the case of Qatada the court could not be sure that testimony obtained by torture would not be used against him and that he would not be tortured in prison which would be in violation of Article 6 of the European Convention on Human Rights. Oh, really? The country which routinely tortures prisoners accused of terrorism is the US. The US has kidnapped people from all over the world, calling it " rendition ", has flown them to Guantanamo in secret illegal flights and obtained confessions by ruthless torture. The previous Vice President, Dick Cheney defended the use of torture of suspects. It is good that Cheney recently had a heart transplant which means that he will live long enough to, hopefully, face trial someday. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and 4 others will face a military court at Guantanamo from May 5 and may be sentenced to death. Khalid was captured by the ISI in Rawalpindi in Pakistan on March 1, 2003 and transferred to US custody who then flew him out to Guantanamo where he was water boarded to extract a confession. We can be sure that his Miranda Rights were never read to him and evidence used by torture will definitely be used. So the European Court is definitely using double standards and the President of the US boasts of having taught law in Harvard. How slimy can you get? Meanwhile the Iraqi defector, " Curveball ", who fabricated claims about Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction has cheerfully admitted that he made it all up to bring down Saddam Hussein. TOI, April 2. The US has the most extensive and comprehensive intelligence network in the world able to eavesdrop on any telephone or cell phone conversation and able to access any internet account because all the servers are based in the US. Is it remotely possible that the Bush administration did not know of their absence especially as UN inspector Hans Blix repeatedly denied their existence? Did Colin Powel deliberately lie to the Security Council? What the US demands the Europeans obey. And judges are clearly no exception. No Solomon here.

Does it matter?

Peter Heehs, an American, has lived in India since 1971. He is a historian and has written books on India's independence and has been working as editor of Sri Aurobindo Ashram archives in Pondicherry. Apparently he has written a book on Sri Aurobindo in which he also explores his relationship with Mirra Alfassa who is revered as The Mother of the ashram in Pondicherry. Mirra Alfassa was born of a Turkish Jewish father and an Egyptian Jewish mother. She married Henri Morriset in 1897, had a son named Andre, divorced Morriset in 1908, married Paul Richard in 1910 and divorced him in 1920. Followers have taken exception to what Heehs has written in his book and the Indian government is now refusing to renew his visa. A few points need to be made about this controversy. 1. Western writers seem to be obsessed with sex. Any human being needs to eat and drink and hence will need to go to the bathroom. These are all bodily functions and do not detract from the teaching of the person. Ramakrishna, Ram and Krishna were all married while Vivekananda was not. So what. Is the message of the Gita in any way diminished just because Krishna was married? The problem with these one God fellows is the concept of the Original Sin and the expulsion of Adam and Eve from paradise. This makes God either a fool for giving genitals to us or a sadist for forbidding sex to 2 naked humans. If the idea is to create a sensation just to sell your book then it is stupid. 2. The habit of politicians in India of banning books is counterproductive. The publicity arouses curiosity in people and more people read the book than would have done if it had not been banned. Such books are easily available in the west and there is so much travel these days that it is impossible to keep any book from coming into India. Protests by Muslims and the Fatwah on Salman Rushdie made Satanic Verses unnecessarily famous and earned Rushdie a lot more money than he could have hoped for. If any book really makes Muslims look bad then it is Exodus by Leon Uris, an American, which has been freely available for decades. 3. If you are going to be controversial then stick to your own kind. Dan Brown's contention that Jesus was married to Mary Magdalene and had children with her, in his book the Da Vinci Code, made the Catholic Church but there were no Fatwahs because Brown is a Christian himself. However, if someone writes something controversial about another faith it causes more anger because it is seen as a deliberate insult by an outsider. Unless you have absolute proof. All this debate seems a complete waste of time. Because it really does not matter. The message is all important.

Spoilt the beautiful game.

It is virtually over. Manchester United are 8 points clear of Manchester City with 6 games to go and are going to remain the Premier League champions of England. From the first day of the season it seemed as if this result had been already decided. Yesterday's game between United and Queen Park Rangers was an example. Early in the first half Ashley Young of United, who was at least 2 yards off side, went over almost untouched by QPR defender Shaun Derry. It was a clear case of diving or " simulation " as FIFA calls it and Young should have received a yellow card. Instead United receive a penalty, converted with great celebration by Wayne Rooney, and Derry is sent off. Game over. Down to 10 men QPR put up a valiant resistance until Paul Scholes scored a second with a screamer from a distance and United had all 3 points. City lost to Arsenal by a single goal and have no hope of catching United even though 18 points are still to be decided. It seems that referees are blind when it comes to United. They can beat up opponents without being sent off, can blatantly handle the ball in the penalty area without being punished, unfairly receive free kicks and penalty decisions and are given extra injury time at the end of the game to equalise if they are a goal down. It is embarrassing to watch. Such protection makes Wayne Rooney look like the best player in the world but he is shown up in international matches where he does not get such protection. Blackburn, owned by Venky's London Ltd, is down in relegation zone on 28 points. Why Venky's sacked Sam Allardyce, who was a much better manager than Steve Kean is, is a mystery. They made a loss of 18.6 million pounds last year and will lose even more if they drop down to the Championship. Perhaps football is not the same as selling chicken products. It is sad to see Liverpool struggling in eighth place. The team looks ordinary and Andy Carroll, bought from Newcastle for 35 million pounds, is a failure. A striker can only look good if he gets quality service and Liverpool is certainly not doing that. Luis Suarez scores more goals for Uruguay than he does for his club. Dalglish's pedigree is never in doubt but his signings have been poor. He needs to clear out a few and buy new players in the summer if the American owners are ready to pay. Chelsea are paying the price of meddling by the owner, Abramovich proving that you can become an oligarch by force but you cannot win titles in football. He should give full freedom to his manager and stop interfering. Arsene Wenger definitely needs to spend on new players, especially on strikers in case Van Persie is injured for any length of time. The season is coming to and end but biased refereeing has spoilt the beautiful game.

Conspiracies add spice to life.

There were 2 conspiracies in the coup that never was. The first was by a group of senior army officers who spooked the government with rumors of an impending coup so as to make the present army chief, Gen VK Singh look bad. The second was by a combination of arms lobbies, middlemen, foreign governments and armament firms against the Defence Minister, AK Antony. Apparently Mr Antony has been steadfast in his stand against corruption in defence procurement and has even blacklisted 6 top armaments companies including 4 foreign companies. Hence the scoundrels have ganged up against him. The recent victory of Aung San Suu Kyi in the by elections in Burma in which her party, the National League for Democracy won 43 out of 44 seats was a vile conspiracy by the ruling junta. They rigged the elections in her favor so that stupid western governments will drop sanctions against the regime and the US has already done that. The BBC alleged a conspiracy by the President of Argentina, Cristina Fernandes de Kirchner for raising the illegal occupation of the Malvinas ( Falklands to the British marauders ) at this time. Apparently she is trying to divert attention from a decline in the economy and rising inflation. Of course, the upper class fascist, David Cameron is not trying to divert attention from a deepening recession, rising unemployment, lowering taxes for the rich while cutting services for the poor, the disabled and the sick and raising taxes for pensioners by sending the newly built air defence destroyer, HMS Dauntless for a 6 months tour of the Malvinas. However, all these are nothing compared to the mother of all conspiracies unraveling in China. The Communist Party Chief of Chongqing, Bo Xilai has been removed from his post while his wife, the very fetching, Gu Kailai is not to be seen. Bo Xilai is the son of Bo Yibo, one of the 8 elders of the Communist Party while Gu Kailai is the daughter of Gu Jinsheng, a Communist general renowned for his role in fighting the Japanese in the 1930s. They are, therefore, as aristocratic as one can get in China. Bo Xilai's downfall came when the former police chief of Chongqing, Wang Lijun sought refuge in a US consulate in China. Wang was apparently fearful for his life after alleging that British businessman, Neil Heywood, who died in Chongqing last year, was poisoned after falling out with Gu Kailai. Some see a conspiracy by upstarts in the Communist Party against the children of the founders of China in an attempt to gain control of the Party and hence total control of the country. Conspiracies are wonderful adding color to our daily existence. Knowing how villainous politicians are who is to say that conspiracies are not real.

We, the people are so gullible.

Every year at around this time we see pictures of entire towns in the US flattened by hurricanes. Some areas are so prone to hurricanes that they are collectively known as hurricane alley. This year has been no exception and we have seen pictures of demolished houses looking like scattered matchwood. One would think that in such areas houses would be constructed of more solid materials such as cement and concrete able to withstand hurricane force winds but houses are still rebuilt with wood. Is it because that makes houses cheaper and quicker to build reducing labor costs? Insurance companies, at least, should refuse to insure flimsy houses but they do not seem to learn. Also every few weeks we hear of another massacre by someone with a handgun. Wikipedia records the earliest school shooting on November 2, 1853 when a student, Matthew Ward bought a self cocking pistol and killed Schoolmaster, Mr Butler in front of the whole class for having punished his brother excessively the day before. He was acquitted. Not so lucky was an 11 year old boy, Jordan Brown who in February, 2009 shot his father's 8 months pregnant fiance, Kenzie Houk with a 20-gauge shotgun in the back while she was sleeping. Apparently the boy had behavioral problems and was jealous of his unborn brother. He is to be tried as an adult and faces life in prison without parole. What a waste of 3 lives. Yet Americans refuse to learn. The gun lobby uses these incidents to scare people into believing that possessing a gun will make them safer because they can defend themselves against criminals. It is not criminals who are committing these massacres but " ordinary " people who are living normally in the community until suddenly one day they lose control. Criminals are usually known to the police and will not kill senselessly without gain. You may recognise a criminal from the circumstances and prepare yourself. For instance, if you hear noises or see a stranger in your house at night but how do you prepare yourself against a wild explosion of rage by someone you know, someone who is your classmate or neighbor. It is this unpredictability that makes these killings impossible to prevent. Yet the gun lobby uses these same incidents along with bribing lawmakers to make it easier to own guns. How is an 11 year old allowed to own a shotgun. If he did not have the weapon he may have behaved rudely or thrown tantrums but would not have wasted his entire life in prison. What a waste of public funds. We are no wiser in India. Our most revered Finance Minister said in his budget speech that he has to be cruel to be kind which, apparently, is from Shakespeare's Hamlet. The press went weak in their collective knees at this example of erudition but no one pointed out that he was being cruel to us by increasing taxes across the board, which will increase already high prices even further, so that he can be kind to politicians who will use the money for foreign trips with family and friends, live in palaces at nominal rent and swank around with Z+ security. We, the people are so ready to believe in all the lies. Just we Indians believed the lies about the World Class Economist.

Inviting death.

In the last few days there has been a lot of discussion regarding a story reported by the Indian Express in which the paper claims that the Indian government was " spooked " on the night of January 16-17 when 2 army units moved towards New Delhi. This was the day before the army chief Gen VK Singh filed an application in the Supreme Court regarding his age. One was Hissar based mechanized infantry unit and the other was Agra based 50 para brigade. Indian Express claims that the government was so worried that police units were told to raise barricades on the highway leading to the capital to slow down the movement of the units. Both Gen VK Singh and the government have ridiculed the story but Express is standing by it. Apparently army units are regularly moved around on exercises and there is no requirement to inform the government and on this occasion they were being tested for their response to foggy conditions, but the speed of the police deployment has taken people by surprise. A military coup is impossible in India. The country is too diverse and, as the recent state elections have shown, power is not concentrated in the union government. The Indian army is a million strong and no particular group is in absolute majority unlike in Pakistan where the army is controlled by Punjabis. So why are politicians so terrified of a coup. The reason is that they know they are despised by the educated middle class people many of whom openly suggest that an army led government would be able to get rid of the corrupt scoundrels in one swoop which would be good for the country. When the parliament was attacked in December 2001 people were sorry that a woman police officer died fighting the terrorists but not one politician was killed. However, it is not just the politicians who are responsible for the poisoned relations with the armed forces. There is a dark shadowy organisation within the government which formulates policy and controls every official action. It is the Indian Administrative Service or the IAS which took over from the Indian Civil Service established by the British to control and subdue the " natives ". The IAS functions much like an occupying force and keeps a complete grip on power. Ministers are known as Aya Ram, Gaya Ram or here today, gone tomorrow but IAS officers cannot be removed until they retire. They can be transferred but not sacked, have detailed knowledge about the intricate workings of government and have an iron grip on power by working in secret so that they are never called to account for their actions. All the scams, that have implicated politicians in the last few years, could not have been possible without active connivance of IAS officers. They ride roughshod over the Indian Foreign service which explains our poor foreign policy, Indian Police Service which explains the demoralised and corrupt police and the armed forces creating divisions between top officers. This is the sickness affecting the state of India and, unless removed or completely reformed, will continue to poison the system. So powerful and malevolent is the IAS that writing this invites death. Still, unless the cancer is diagnosed treatment cannot start.

Foreigners are bothersome.

Since last year politicians, civil servants and business leaders in India have been hectoring the RBI to reduce interest rates, arguing that high borrowing costs hamper new investments. Which is true. No one, it seems, is bothered about high inflation. While high interest rates increase cost of business and reduce profits they are an incentive to greater savings in banks. Just last week SBI increased interest on fixed deposits by 1% to attract more money and ease its liquidity. Inflation, on the other hand, affects everybody. It reduces consumer spending and reduces sales thereby reducing profits. So it makes greater sense to try and reduce inflation than focus constantly on interest rates. An article in the WSJ online, April 3 gives the answer. Seems that Indian companies sold Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds worth some $14 billion in 2006-7 when the stock market was zooming. At maturity these bonds may be converted to shares of the company selling them. Companies thought that share prices will continue to increase which would tempt bondholders to convert their bonds into shares rather than ask for repayment. That did not happen. Bondholders are now asking for repayment which companies are unable to do. Already some companies have defaulted. Bondholders are now filing petitions in court to wind up companies because they believe that companies have more cash than they admit and that a court appointed administrator will pay them more. Last year a group of bondholders, led by a unit of New York hedge fund QVT Financial LP, won against Mumbai based pharmaceutical, Wockhardt. Wockhardt had defaulted on bonds worth $110 million and was told to repay with interest by August 31. Now the same group has filed a winding up petition against Zenith Infotech, a Mumbai and Pittsburgh based information technology service provider. Zenith defaulted on $33 million of bonds due on September 21 which triggered cross-default of another $50 million due in August this year. Zenith has declared a cash balance of $52 million, part of which came from the sale of one of its businesses in the US. " We are willing to pay a substantial portion of the bond amount due provided we can restructure the rest," said a senior Zenith official. Had these companies borrowed from Indian banks their loans would have been restructured easily and the banks would have added the amounts to their Non Performing Asset class. No one would dream about filing winding up petitions. There has been an increase of over 300% in corporate debt recast this fiscal which has reached Rs 762.51 billion from Rs 250.54 billion last fiscal. Bank NPAs have risen from 2.3% to 3.4%. Politicians, civil servants and business honchos think that public money is for them to play with. Accountability is seen as an insult. Foreigners ask too many inconvenient questions. Hence the anguished cry for the RBI to reduce interest rates. Hence also the frantic efforts to support the Sensex. Stupid crooks.

Christians yea, oil no.

NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said that the alliance has " no intention " of interfering in Syria. He goes on to say," I don't think that the right way forward would be to provide any group with weapons. There is a clear risk that the provision of arms to any group in Syria would also lead to a potentially dangerous proliferation of weapons in the region. I do hope a political and diplomatic solution can be found on the basis of the work that has now started under the leadership of the UN Special Envoy, Kofi Annan." Why so coy? This same fellow had no hesitation in supporting the bombing of Libya killing 30,000 people and leaving the country divided into territories controlled by militias. In the last couple of days 14 people have died in fighting between Berbers and Arabs in the northwest of the country. Heavily armed Touareg tribesmen from Gaddafi's army have taken over the northern half of Mali up to the town of Timbuktu putting the government army to flight. Of course, Libya has oil, lots of it, and it is high quality and easy to get at. It costs just $1 dollar to get a barrel of Libyan oil and with prices at $107 a barrel profits are mouth watering. Syria, on the other hand, has no oil. Around 10% of population of Syria is Christian, 74% Sunni, 3% Druze and 12% Alawi who control the army and the government. Christians have done well under the present regime and do not want regime change with a Sunni government, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, in power. Events in Egypt are a warning. And there is nowhere to go. Turkey is 98% Muslims with a Christian population of just 80,000, Iraq is 95% Muslim with Christians just 5% and Jordan is 92% Muslim with 6% Christians. Only Lebanon has a sizable Christian population comprising 39-43% of the population. However, Lebanon also has a history of 14 years of civil war between Christians and others so an influx of Christians from Syria may not be welcome. The Political Bureau of Hamas along with chief, Khaled Meshal, lives in exile in Damascus and a Sunni government will make Hamas extremely powerful in Gaza increasing the threat to Israel. Hence US and NATO reluctance to get rid of the Assad government. What would be ideal for western countries is for Assad to step down which would meet the demands of protesters and, may be, calm the situation. A new man would take over, allow some aid to get to civilians and start work on a new constitution promising elections at some distant time in the future. The puzzling thing is Israel's insistence on attacking Iran. Maybe Israel thinks that destroying Iran's nuclear potential will lead to fall of the hardline Islamic regime which will cut off arms supply to Hezbollah and Hamas. The middle east is an interesting riddle. The fun is that even the people living there have no idea what is going on. Fascinating.

Truth is oh so infuriating.

Our most esteemed Minister for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Mr Virbhadra Singh is incandescent. He has threatened Mr Arvind Kejriwal of Team Anna, the civil society movement fighting against corruption, with a case of criminal defamation. Mr Singh has a grand portfolio but what does he do anyway? What is a micro enterprise? Is the fellow who goes round every evening selling ice cream from a pushcart a micro enterprise? There are millions of such carts selling all kinds of eatables made by dubious " businessmen " under extremely unhygienic conditions. These products are attractive to the poor, especially children, who cannot even hope to enter a proper restaurant because they have been made too expensive by extortionate taxes. Naturally, thousands of children die every year from diarrhoeal diseases. Death of children does not seem to make Mr Singh angry. So what does? Mr Kejriwal has had the temerity to say that he has no respect for this parliament because 162 of its members have charges of murder, kidnapping and rape against them. Mr Singh has no problem sitting next to a rapist, shaking hands with a murderer or sharing a joke with a kidnapper but he is angry because Mr Kejriwal has mentioned it. Oh, we forgot. No one is guilty until proven. Problem is that, since cases drag on for decades, the guilty get away with murder. And kidnapping. And rape. Sadly for Mr Singh an international non-profit organisation, Global Integrity has rated and given points to the Indian legal system and its lawmakers. Individual Candidate Financing gets 28 points. Conflicts of Interest Safeguards and checks and balances in Judicial Branch 45 points. Implementation and Disclosure of Political Party and Candidate Financing - 0 points. Party Financing Regulations - 0 points. Legal Framework 20 points. The report says," Many anti corruption agencies are not independent from the governments they are tasked with monitoring." Mr Singh should note that party and candidate financing and finance regulation have both got zero points meaning that the entire election system is corrupt based on black money. It follows, therefore, that no one has the right to sit in Parliament having got there through illegal financing. Of course, as is usual with our politicians Mr Singh will scornfully dismiss the report as from biased foreigners and claim that " Parliament is supreme ". So it is but by giving refuge to filthy criminals it has made crime supreme in India. If only there was micro sharam or izzat.

Between a rock and an abyss.

" India will lose significant ground as a destination for international investment if it fails to align itself with policy and practice around the world and restore confidence in the relevance of the judiciary,' said a letter written by 7 leading industry associations from the US, UK, Japan, Hong Kong and Canada to the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh. These are Business Roundtable, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, Capital Markets Tax Committee of Asia, Japan Foreign Trade Council Inc, Confederation of British Industry, National Foreign Trade Council Inc and the Untied States Council for International Business. HT online, April 2. These organisations are objecting to a proposal in the budget which gives blanket powers to Income Tax fellows to retroactively examine corporate deals dating as far back as April 1, 1962 and levy tax if they so wish. This proposal is in retaliation to the dismissal by the Supreme Court of claims for $2.2 billion withholding tax against Vodafone in its purchase of Hutchison Whampoa's mobile business in India in 2007. Why is the government so keen on passing a law that may be detrimental to Foreign Direct Investment in India? The reason is that another deficit has been has been added to the list of deficits in our economy which makes the government desperate for money. For the first time since 2008 we have a Balance of Payments deficit which means that India has spent more foreign currency than has come into the country, to the tune of $12.8 billion. This is being blamed on high oil and gold prices, both of which we have to import. The RBI has been selling dollars in the market to support the rupee which might otherwise have tanked. The Current Account Deficit more than doubled from $9.7 billion to $19.6 billion and Trade Deficit increased from $31.4 billion to $47.7 billion. The reason why the US, Singapore and Hong Kong attract so much business investment is because of a stable environment in which tax laws are not changed at whim and court decisions are respected. Retroactive change is especially confusing because no businessman can be sure of not being penalised tomorrow for a deal which is perfectly legal today. Our most revered Finance Minister has sought to reassure business leaders by saying that only a few deals will be reexamined. Yes, but which ones? He has also said that India is not a " low tax or no tax country and is not a tax haven ". Precisely. In spite of astronomical taxes we are running deficits in every measure of the economy. Because of wasteful spending and loot. There in lies the nub.

No surplus, only deficits.

While China, Japan, Taiwan talk about trade surplus all we hear in India is a calculation of deficits. There is budget deficit which is what the government spends in excess of its income, for example from taxes and duties. Fiscal deficit is when total expenditure is greater than the income it generates, excluding borrowings. The US has very high fiscal deficit. Structural deficit is when budget deficit is due to fundamental imbalance between income and expenditures. Greece is suffering from this disease as it is unable to meet interest payments on its debts without borrowing more, thus increasing its debt even more. Trade deficit is when imports are more than exports resulting in an outflow of foreign currency abroad. Within my lifetime I have never heard of India having a trade surplus. According to projections trade deficit may rise to $428.3 billion by 2015-16, of which oil will be $243.7 and gold $83.3 billion. Since our foreign currency reserves on March 29 was $260.37 billion and securities $142.06 billion making a total of $402.43 billion how will we meet our bills? Then there is the current account deficit. This is a composite of goods, services, income from salaries and investments and unilateral transfers which are remittances sent by expats working abroad. A deficit in current account may mean that the country is investing more abroad than at home. But is that a good thing? Some 58% of $83 billion in revenues generated by Tata is from abroad. While it may mean more foreign currency earning it also means jobs are being created abroad and Tata might decide to use its income to buy more assets abroad. Politicians in India have always assumed a paternalistic attitude towards citizens. Trust us because we know best. But do they? State Bank of India, our largest bank has record gross Non Performing Assets at Rs 400.80 billion and has had to increase provisioning for bad debts by 87.5%. Total NPAs in the system is set to top 3% of total assets, as against 2.3% last fiscal, at Rs 980 billion. What is worrying the RBI is an increase in corporate debt restructuring by 300%. Debt recast is already Rs 762.51 billion this fiscal as against Rs 250.54 billion last fiscal. So if the country is growing and we are moving towards honey and cream as repeatedly promised by the World Famous Economist then why is the RBI worried? Sadly all our economists have vested interests in painting a rosy picture of the economy because they sit on boards of various companies. So whatever the WFE may say we can only imagine the worst until we hear the word " surplus ".