Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Christians yea, oil no.

NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said that the alliance has " no intention " of interfering in Syria. He goes on to say," I don't think that the right way forward would be to provide any group with weapons. There is a clear risk that the provision of arms to any group in Syria would also lead to a potentially dangerous proliferation of weapons in the region. I do hope a political and diplomatic solution can be found on the basis of the work that has now started under the leadership of the UN Special Envoy, Kofi Annan." Why so coy? This same fellow had no hesitation in supporting the bombing of Libya killing 30,000 people and leaving the country divided into territories controlled by militias. In the last couple of days 14 people have died in fighting between Berbers and Arabs in the northwest of the country. Heavily armed Touareg tribesmen from Gaddafi's army have taken over the northern half of Mali up to the town of Timbuktu putting the government army to flight. Of course, Libya has oil, lots of it, and it is high quality and easy to get at. It costs just $1 dollar to get a barrel of Libyan oil and with prices at $107 a barrel profits are mouth watering. Syria, on the other hand, has no oil. Around 10% of population of Syria is Christian, 74% Sunni, 3% Druze and 12% Alawi who control the army and the government. Christians have done well under the present regime and do not want regime change with a Sunni government, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, in power. Events in Egypt are a warning. And there is nowhere to go. Turkey is 98% Muslims with a Christian population of just 80,000, Iraq is 95% Muslim with Christians just 5% and Jordan is 92% Muslim with 6% Christians. Only Lebanon has a sizable Christian population comprising 39-43% of the population. However, Lebanon also has a history of 14 years of civil war between Christians and others so an influx of Christians from Syria may not be welcome. The Political Bureau of Hamas along with chief, Khaled Meshal, lives in exile in Damascus and a Sunni government will make Hamas extremely powerful in Gaza increasing the threat to Israel. Hence US and NATO reluctance to get rid of the Assad government. What would be ideal for western countries is for Assad to step down which would meet the demands of protesters and, may be, calm the situation. A new man would take over, allow some aid to get to civilians and start work on a new constitution promising elections at some distant time in the future. The puzzling thing is Israel's insistence on attacking Iran. Maybe Israel thinks that destroying Iran's nuclear potential will lead to fall of the hardline Islamic regime which will cut off arms supply to Hezbollah and Hamas. The middle east is an interesting riddle. The fun is that even the people living there have no idea what is going on. Fascinating.

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