Monday, March 31, 2008

Seems that the government fellows are beginning to panic. They are unable to control inflation and have no idea on what course to follow. Having inherited a growing economy from the BJP four years ago they milked it for all it was worth. Value Added Tax rates were increased, new services were taxed, old rates such as the tax on share transactions were increased and blatant larceny in the form of a tax on withdrawals from banks were introduced. This money was not used productively as, for instance, on new roads and power plants but on social programmes which means that most of the money was stolen. This is shown by phenomenal rise in property prices and a massive contruction boom driving the economy to higher growth rates in the last few years. While liquidity is a problem for the rest of the world there is excess liquidity in India. Inflation is in double digits. Cars, two wheelers and white goods are showing reduced growth pointing to a sl0wing economy. The increase in the salary of government employees will give a one time stimulus to the economy but may lead to increase in inflation. With stagflation a real possibilty politicians will be loath to risk an election at this moment and will try to stay in power for the full term so as to maximise their personal gains. This probably mens that the nuclear deal with the US will not be concluded. Perhaps only people with bad karma are born in this country.

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