Must be their fault.

Two Australian cricketers "who are in India for the ICC Women's World Cup had stepped out of their hotel and were walking towards a cafe when the offender approached them and touched one of them inappropriately. Police have claimed that the molester was caught soon," and "Madhya Pradesh Minister Kailash Vijayvargiya said the players should have informed the security or local administration before leaving the hotel." DH. Blaming the victim is a standard response in India, so that the perpetrators mostly go unpunished. After a female student was gang-raped in West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said, "They should avoid venturing out late at night." "Three weeks ago, three girls were raped on the beach in Odisha." "Such incidents have taken place in Manipur, UP, Bihar, Odisha." ET. It is commonplace because women are asking for it. In March 2023, a court in Uttar Pradesh acquitted three men and convicted one man of culpable homicide not amounting to murder in a case in which a 19-year old Dalit girl was gang raped and murdered in Hathras in September 2020. India Today. In an ongoing case in which Ashish Mishra, son of Union Minister for Home Ajay 'Teni' Mishra, is accused of the murder of four farmers and one journalist by deliberately driving his SUV over them, nearly 40% of witnesses have turned hostile. HT. This is common in India. Police take years in investigating the crime, the accused are released on bail and eyewitnesses turn hostile. Whether they have been 'persuaded' is not known. "India's growth story is falling apart, according to a startup CEO who says the problem isn't money. It's mindset, corruption, and a system built to stall progress." BT. Indian Forest Service officer Sanjiv Chaturvedi exposed "illegal tree-felling and poaching, misuse of public money and large-scale embezzlement in fake plantation schemes" in Haryana around 23 years ago. Evidently, political bigwigs were involved." Reaction was furious and vicious. There has been no conclusion to the charges because, "Two Supreme Court and four high court justices and eight members of the Central Administrative Tribunal (CAT) have recused themselves, without citing a reason, from his cases in the last 12 years." DH. If High Court and Supreme Court judges can be coerced, why should ordinary witnesses risk their lives? Last week, "Francesca Orsini, a London-based scholar of Hindi and South Asian literature, was denied entry at the Delhi airport...despite holding an Indian visa valid for another five years." The Print. No reason was given. Her offence could only be something she has said or written that the brotherhood did not like. In February 2021, "Princess Latifa, daughter of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, has for the first time described how she was captured by Indian special forces three years ago on a boat off the coast of India and how despite kicking and screaming that she was seeking political asylum she was tranquilised (italics to highlight assault) and carried onto a private jet." TOI. Blofeld would be proud. It must be their fault. Even when tranquilized.    

Eating much more.

"For decades India fought one great battle - hunger." "Those efforts worked. In one generation, poverty at the $3-a-day line has plunged from nearly half the population in 2004 to below 5% today." "As India has grown richer, a different epidemic has quietly spread - obesity." "Recognizing this, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked all Indians to reduce their edible oil consumption by 10%," wrote Chief Economic Advisor Anantha Nageswaran & Ruchir Agarwal. In 1990, "diarrhoeal diseases held the top spot in mortality with age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of 300.53 per 100,000," but in 2023, "ischemic heart disease leads with an ASMR of 127.82 per 100,000." Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was second with an ASMR of 99.25 while stroke was third at 92.88. NDTV. COPD is not due to overeating but mostly due to smoking, to pollution and to Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. Cleveland Clinic. In India, "Bidis are popular (wikipedia) among individuals with lower incomes, due to their lower cost." And, "Contrary to common belief that they contain less tobacco and are made from leaves, bidis can be up to eight times more harmful than cigarettes." TOI. A study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the Madras Diabetes Research Foundation found that carbohydrates, white rice, refined grains and sugar, contribute 62% of calories in an average Indian diet, much higher than recommended 55%, and fats are higher than the 30% advised. TOI. Cereals are cheaper than proteins, as bidis are cheaper than cigarettes, which means that poverty is a major contributor to noncommunicable diseases (NCD) (WHO) in India. Indian farmers prefer to grow rice and wheat because some states subsidise water and electricity and the central government buys rice and wheat, (Mint), at a pre-determined minimum support price (MSP) which prevents a steep fall in prices in case of over-production (pib.gov.in). Since 1 January 2023, the Indian government has been distributing 5 kg of free food grains to 813.5 million people. pib.gov.in. It seems therefore that people can make an informed choice in their diet and lifestyle if they become more affluent and that can only happen if they have steady, well-paying jobs. Unfortunately, "For long, India's services sector has been seen as the engine of economic growth." But, "Services now contribute around 55% of India's gross value added (GVA), but most of the employment they create remains informal and low-paying." TOI. "Services risk becoming a low-wage trap despite being the fastest-growing part of the economy," said a report by Niti Aayog. BS. People are eating a lot more. But a poor diet. Because they are still poor.       

Can't stop us buying gold.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intensified its efforts to transfer gold reserves back to India," "As of September-end, out of the total gold holdings of 880.8 tonnes, the RBI maintained 575.8 tonnes within India, whilst 290.3 tonnes remained in the custody of the Bank of England and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." TOI. It makes sense because the price of gold has soared in recent months. In 2015, one troy ounce of gold would have cost $1,060 (onlygold.com), while today the price has more than trebled to $3,957 per troy ounce (goldprice.org). These banks charge a fee for storing gold. Storing 100 tonnes of gold with the Bank of England for one year would cost 102,200. bullionstar.com. Western countries have not forgotten their colonisation habit of plunder. "As much as $250 billion worth of Russian assets have been frozen in the EU since the US and its allies prohibited transactions with Russia's central bank and finance ministry after Moscow sent forces into Ukraine in February 2022." Reuters. The US and the EU think they have a right to order India to stop trading with Russia although India is a sovereign nation and Russia has been a trusted friend of India, while Richard Nixon, a Republican president, considered using a nuclear weapon on India (nyt.com) during the 1971 war between India and Pakistan, which resulted in the creation of Bangladesh (wikipedia) . "Two and a half decades ago, India and Russia elevated their enduring ties into a formal strategic partnership - a commitment not just to friendship, but to shared purpose and joint endeavor." ET. "Many Indian refiners have paused new orders for Russian oil since US sanctions last week on Moscow's two top crude exporters as they await clarity from the government and suppliers, with some turning to the spot market for alternatives, industry sources said. However, state-run Indian Oil said...it would not stop buying Russian oil as long as it is complying with sanctions." Reuters. In March, "India has signed a $248 million with Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport to acquire more powerful engines for its Soviet-era battle tanks, the Indian Defence Ministry said." Reuters. India is also looking to acquire more S-400 surface to air (SAM) missiles from Russia at a cost of Rs 100 billion. Defence Security Asia. In September, "Russia has submitted a proposal to India for the supply and local production of its fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jets, news agency TASS reported ." India Today. Just to annoy India, Trump has continued to claim that he was responsible for stopping the conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025, known as Operation Sindoor in India (pib.giv.in ), which India claims to have won. Yesterday, once again Trump said in Tokyo that "Seven-brand new, beautiful" aircraft  were shot down during the conflict. DH. Daily foreign exchange trading reached $9.6 trillion in April 2025 and of that the US dollar "was on one side of 89% of all Fx trades in April 2025." The euro was second with a share of 28.9%, the Japanese yen was at 16.8% and the UK sterling at 10.2%. bis.org. If we cannot use these currencies we can use gold. Get all our gold back to India. We can buy more from countries like South Africa. With dollars.     

Style on borrowing.

"The Indian rupee has outperformed its regional peers in October, aided by the central bank's consistent market interventions that have helped the South Asian currency find its footing after being hit by a barrage of negative cues. The local unit has climbed nearly 1% this month." Taking advantage of a stronger rupee, importers are buying up dollars and "traders say the central bank appears to be defending the currency around the 88-handle." ET. The rupee fell from 84.220 on 5 May 2025 to 88.866 to $1 before strengthening to 87.742 on 22 October. exchangerates.org.uk. It is trading at 88.30 to $1 this morning. xe.com. "Liquidity in India's banking system has turned negative for the first time in a month as the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) dollar sales to defend the rupee and higher cash withdrawals during the festive season drained funds from the market." In June the RBI cut the interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50%, for a total of 100 bps cut this year, and also announced "a phased 100 bps cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) - from 4% to 3% - to be implemented in four tranches of 25 bps each, starting in September." ET. This was expected to release Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system. All this was supposed to encourage bank lending and push down lending rates. However, RBI data show that, "till 22 August, loans to industry had risen by only 6.5%, in contrast with 10.6% to services and 11.8% to retail borrowers." The RBI has also increased lending against shares and mutual funds, freed up funds for non bank finance companies (NBFC) and allowed private equity to buy larger shares in banks and NBFCs. "Rattled by nearly $17 billion in foreign outflows this year, India is doubling down on financial sector reforms in a push to beef up capital buffers and lift investment in the country amid wider worries about the economic hit from US tariffs." Reuters. Industries may be reluctant to avail of easy borrowing but individuals are borrowing to fund lifestyle aspirations such as expensive cars and multiple holidays in a year. "Economist Deepanshu Mohan says that it is not just the affluent class but those in relatively lower economic strata who are aspirational and comfortable with a credit -fueled lifestyle spending." "Ritesh Srivastava, founder of FREED, a platform that helps people overcome debt-related issues," said  that "between 2021-25, the company resolved Rs 2 billion of debt and enrolled 38,000 customers." "The stressed unsecured retail debt size is $35-45 billion in India, according to FREED." TOI. The RBI is pushing banks to increase lending by trying to force down lending rates by flooding the banking system with cash. However, yields on the benchmark 10-year government bonds are at 6.540% this morning. in.investing.com. If the government is having to borrow at over 100 bps higher than RBI interest rate, how can industries borrow cheaply? If the debt levels in middle and lower-middle classes pile up people will be forced to cut spending. That will depress demand and industries will be loathe to invest in new capacity. Is the RBI pushing on a string?   

A rare chemistry.

"US President Donald Trump has arrived in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy, which includes a much-anticipated meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping." "Trump landed in the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur, as a summit for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, begins on Sunday. He will then visit Japan and finally South Korea, where the White House says he will meet Xi." BBC. In a problem for India, "Trump...hailed Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir as 'great people'," because Sharif "said beautifully that the President (Trump) saved millions of lives," a remark made in reference to the US President's claim of 'stopping' the India-Pakistan conflict in May this year." HT. India has been hit with 50% tariffs on goods exports to the US, due to which, "September 2025 shipments fell to $5.5 billion, down 20.3% from August, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and erasing over $3.3 billion in monthly trade since May, according to a report from GTRI." Exports were $8.8 billion in May. TOI. In July, Trump signed an executive order imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil for prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro. CNN. Equal tariffs created great friendship between India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. In July, following a Brics Summit, Mr Modi embarked on a state visit to Brazil during which he exchanged hugs with President Lula at Alvorada Palace and was presented with a guard of honor comprised of 114 horses. TOI. Unfortunately, though Mr Modi decided to skip the UN General Assembly where he was scheduled to deliver a speech on 26 September (ET), Lula attended and "was pleasantly surprised by his first-ever encounter with US President Donald Trump at the United Nations General Assembly, describing it as having 'some chemistry' despite months of tension between the two largest economies in the Americas." "I saw him, he saw me, and we embraced," Trump told the assembly." (TOI). Eyes meet among hundreds of people, a sudden chemistry of brain chemicals and two men fall into each other's arms, an explosion of bromance! This could be the 'most unkindest cut of all' (Dictionary) for Mr Modi and for India. In a video chat on 6 October, "Lula asked Trump to remove most of the duties. Trump said on social media they had a 'very good telephone call'." BBC. Mr Modi also skipped the ASEAN summit to avoid meeting Trump (India Today) but Lula can't seem to stay away from Trump. Just this morning, "Lula said at a briefing on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia that his discussions with Trump had gone well and that an agreement would be reached 'faster than anyone thinks'." ET. But, "India will not accept limits on its trading choices or rush to sign agreements, Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said." Reuters. As in any romance, Lula has a gift irresistible to Trump. Brazil's "subsoil is rich in rare earth minerals coveted by manufacturers in a sector dominated by China." ET. What can we woo Trump with? 

It's all government.

Assistant General Manager, Sarthak Gulati, of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Department has accused the State Bank of India's (SBI) Ecowrap report of plagiarism. He accused SBI Ecowrap of "verbatim replication of RBI's Monetary Policy Reports", which the SBI Research team, led by Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh called "sad and sensationalized".TN. We may be excused for finding this intellectual dispute somewhat amusing because both the RBI and SBI are fully owned by the government. "Although originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank of India is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. SBI is a public sector bank, which means that the government has a controlling share of 55.50%, making it a government bank. wikipedia. In addition, the RBI is the regulator of the SBI. "The Banking Regulation Act, 1949 empowers the Reserve Bank of India to inspect and supervise commercial banks. These powers are exercised through onsite inspection and off site surveillance." rbi.org.in. Since the RBI's observations become a directive for all commercial banks, how can it be wrong for the SBI to quote them? It may be a case of the right hand and left hand (Dictionary) of the government not being in harmony or it may be a subliminal message  (vocabulary.com) to the uninitiated that both banks work independently of each other and the government to provide in depth, detailed research reports into the economy in the service of the nation. The present Governor of the RBI Sanjay Malhotra is a serving officer of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) since 1990 (wikipedia) and he succeeded a retired IAS officer Shaktikanta Das who was Governor from December 2018 to December 2024 and is now the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister of India (wikipedia). The present Chairman of the SBI Challa Sreenivasulu Setty has spent his entire career in the bank since 1988. wikipedia. Meanwhile, "Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC)...denied reports by The Washington Post that alleged Indian officials crafted and pushed through a proposal in May to steer roughly $3.9 billion in investments from the state-owned insurer to Adani Group companies. LIC called the claims 'false'." ET. The government owns 96.5% of LIC. wikipedia. The Congress alleged that SBI invested Rs 5.25 billion in 2023 and now LIC has invested Rs 330 billion in the Adani Group because of the friendship between Mr Modi and Mr Gautam Adani which makes it a "Modani Mega Scam". DH. Last week, "The Indian government has reportedly reduced the number of officials who can order content to be taken down from the internet." TOI. Till now any jobsworth flunkey could order takedown of any post he didn't like. Sadly, even the senior-most official can't take down an article in The Washington Post. That's how we find out. From pesky furriners.  

International hide and seek.

"US President Donald Trump has once again claimed credit for averting a potential war between India and Pakistan, saying he used the threat of steep tariffs to stop the two nuclear-armed neighbors from 'going at it'." He claimed that seven planes were shot down. TOI. "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has told Trump that Delhi will never accept third-party mediation with Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir." "Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said that Modi had 'strongly' conveyed India's long-held stand to Trump during a phone call between the two leaders on Tuesday (17 June)." Mr Modi also told Trump 'clearly' that "no talks were held at any level on the India-America trade deal or on the mediation between India and Pakistan by America." BBC. How muscular were "strongly' and "clearly"? Trump left Canada early during the G7 summit without meeting Mr Modi. HT. After telling Trump off, Mr Modi kept away from the live session of the UN General Assembly  (UNGA) ,which he was to address on 26 September. ET. "If he travels all the way to New York, the PM would really want to have a bilateral meeting with Trump. However, in the current circumstances, govt believes it's best to avoid a high-stakes meeting between the two leaders." TOI. Now Trump is claiming that India will stop buying crude oil from Russia. "India, as you know, has told me they are going to stop...it's a process." "By the end of the year, they'll be down to almost nothing, about 40% of the (Russian) oil." HT. This was repeated by the White House when, "The White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt...claimed India had scaled back Russian oil imports at US President Donald Trump's 'request'." "India has dismissed reports of any policy shift, reiterating that its priority remains safeguarding consumer interest." TOI. Perhaps, as a result, "Modi has decided to avoid traveling to Kuala Lumpur for the meeting with ASEAN counterparts, pouring cold water on speculation about a bilateral meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the summit." "Look forward to joining the ASEAN-India summit virtually, and to further deepening the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership," Mr Modi posted on X. DH. Mr Modi has projected himself as a 'strongman' so he cannot be seen to be caving in to Trump but, "India's largest private oil refinery Reliance Industries is reportedly halting purchases of Russian crude, following the US' decision to sanction Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil." "In September, it purchased 629,590 barrels of Russian crude per day from the two firms, out of India's total imports of 1.6 million barrels per day." CNBC. Obey Trump, with deniability. India may strongly reject hyphenating India with Pakistan (India TV) but we have quietly accepted Sergio Gor as the US Ambassador to India, as well as Trump's special envoy to South and Central Asia (pmindia.gov.in). That puts us in the same basket, not only with Pakistan, but with all the other 'stans' in Central Asia. A nation has the right to refuse agrement to a diplomat without giving a reason. wikipedia. Our tourist prime minister loves to travel, as his schedule shows (pmindia.gov.in). How long will he play hide and seek with Trump? Even if it's entertaining.               

A bidding war in Bihar.

Bihar is to hold election to its assembly on 06 and 11 November 2025. Votes will be counted on 14.11.2025. static.pib.gov.in. The Bihar Assembly has a total of 243 seats. The National Democratic Alliance, which includes the BJP (80 seats) and the JDU (45 seats), has a majority with 130 seats in total. The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) has a total of 111 seats. wikipedia. Mr Nitish Kumar of the JDU is the Chief Minister for the ninth time since 2024. wikipedia. Mr Kumar is complimented as "Paltu  Ram", meaning 'one who does the opposite', a 'chameleon', for his effortless ability to switch political parties (BT) for personal gain without being troubled by ideology. In the 2015 election, Mr Kumar gained widespread support of women by promising to ban alcohol and, although his party lost seats (wikipedia), he managed to hang on as chief minister. In 2016, he banned alcohol in Bihar. Abolition is still popular among women because it has decreased domestic violence and crime and has helped financially by saving money previously wasted on alcohol. However, Bihar loses Rs 40 billion in revenue annually and is estimated to have lost a total of Rs 300 billion between 2016 and 2025. NDTV. This time Mr Kumar has announced a women's employment scheme under which one woman from each family will be provided employment by the state and paid Rs 10,000 by direct transfer into a bank account. "After six months of employment, an assessment will be conducted, additional assistance of up to Rs 200,000 will be provided if required." TOI. Surely, every woman will expect to be paid this amount and disappointment will turn to rage if denied. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi, shedding all his pretensions of not doing rewdi (freebie) politics, transferred the first installment of Rs 10,000 each to 7.5 million women voters. Kumar also released Rs10,000 to another 2.1 million women." "By now, an estimated 12.1 million women voters in Bihar have received Rs 10,000." Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD has promised "a government job to one person in every family that currently has none. Bihar has about 25 million families, and about 2.5 million Biharis have government jobs. Yadav's announcement will require creating about 10 times the current government jobs," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. Politicians brazenly hand out freebies to win elections, but no one seems to dare to ask them about the fiscal implications for the state and country. "Indian states already offer an amazing and vaired number of freebies over and above what economists call 'public goods' - defense, police, courts, education and healthcare." "Meanwhile, economists watch with worry as fiscal discipline is sacrificed on the altar of electoral maths." "This often takes India to the brink of the fiscal abyss, but politicians are savvy enough to stop short of disaster," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. Maybe so far, but it can easily be one freebie too many if they keep playing Russian Roulette (wikipedia) with the economy. Who will fire the last freebie?