Constructing remittance.

"Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) on Wednesday (26 Nov) revoked GRAP-III measures from Delhi-NCR, saying the air quality has improved. TOI. Delhi's Air Quality Index (AQI) is at the Hazardous level of 471 this morning, with PM10 level at 416 and the PM2.5 at 311 micrograms (mcg) per cubic meter. "With this, there is no more restriction on BS-III petrol and BS-IV diesel vehicles. The ban on construction and demolition activities has also been lifted." "Migrant laborers in Delhi form a crucial part of the capital's workforce," and many of these workers are from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Jharkhand." "A large number of them are involved in the construction of buildings, roads and other infrastructure, which are vital for the city's continued expansion. Down to Earth. The cheapest form of transport for these laborers are buses and construction is the easiest to work in. After all, no education or training is required to carry 8-10 bricks or a bag of cement up flights of stairs. In 2023, "India's construction sector is the second largest employment generator with 71 million workforce employed currently and the number is set to cross 100 million by 2030, Knight Frank-RICS report." ET. Earlier this month, "The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has secured a thumping majority in the Bihar Assembly elections, winning 202 seats in the 243-member House." The BJP got the highest number of seats with 89, while its ally JDU came second with 85. newsonair.gov.in. On 26 September, just over one month before the election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yajana in Bihar, under which the PM transferred Rs 10,000 to the bank accounts of 7.5 million women at a cost of Rs 75 billion. pib.gov.in. In February, the BJP won the Delhi Assembly election with 48 out of 70 seats. wikipedia. Bihar's "leading export 'industry' is processing makhanas, and around the city of Purnia we saw laborers diving in murky waters to extract the nuts, cracking them with mallets by hand , and roasting them over open fires," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "If Bihar were a country, it would be the world's 12th poorest, behind Liberia." In Bihar, "Share of households with at least one migrant rose from 36% in 1998-99 to 60% in 2009-10, to about 65% in 2017." "In 2017, average annual remittance per household was Rs 48,662. Migrant remittances accounted for over 28% of total village income, and about half of the total income of migrant households," wrote Alakh N Sharma. In completely unrelated information, the cost of an adult goat varies between Rs 10,000 and Rs 20,000 per head (Indiamart) and can more than double during the Muslim festival of Eid. The next election in Delhi is not till 2030. By that time there may be more opportunities for handouts. Love the poor.          

The first female Chancellor.

United Kingdom Chancellor Rachel Reeves "has set out details of her second Budget since becoming chancellor." "National Insurance (NI) and income tax thresholds frozen for extra three years beyond 2028, dragging more people into higher brackets over time." BBC. Higher taxes on rental income could increase rents and hit poorer people but higher minimum-wage rates, removal of cap on child benefits, higher state pension, 5p cut in fuel duty and frozen rail fares and prescription charges should help the poor. Markets cheered. "Investors piled into long-dated UK bonds, pushing yields down by the most since April, and boosted the pound after Reeves' Budget helped alleviate some concern about Britain's long-term finances." Thirty-year yields were down 11 basis points at 5.215% and sterling rose 0.5% to $1.32295. Reuters. In a bit of farce, "The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has apologized for mistakenly publishing its economic forecast ahead of the Budget." "The OBR quickly removed the forecast document from its website," but it still caused some volatility in the bond market. BBC. "A dozen members of the House of Lords argued that the easiest way for the UK to emerge from its 'economic and political morass' is to introduce a visa requiring a minimum investment of 2.5 million pounds, according to Bloomberg." BT. The logic of asking rich people to pay so much for a visa so as to pay enormous taxes on their wealth is hard to follow as, "Lakshmi  Mittal's decision to leave the UK for Switzerland and Dubai is an important signal for European economies and also for those outside Europe who plan to squeeze the super rich." Mittal is concerned about the UK's 40% inheritance tax on global assets. ET. One of the reasons for the Labour Party's overwhelming victory in the general election in 2024, gaining 211 seats for a total of 412 seats in the House of Commons (BBC) was the non-dom status, which was perfectly legal, of Akshata Murty, wife of former Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (BBC). " 'Non-dom' describes a UK resident whose permanent home - or domicile - for tax purposes is outside the UK." "A non-dom only pays UK tax on the money they earn in the UK," and not on earnings elsewhere in the world. BBC. Reeves delivered her first budget on 30 October 2024, apparently the first woman to do so. wikipedia. In that budget she raised taxes by the most in 30 years. Reuters. Since then, the economic growth slowed down to just 0.1% in the third quarter, "Britain ran up the highest government borrowing in the April-October period since the Covid-19 pandemic, before adjusting for inflation," "inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, August and September from 2.3% in October 2024," and "The jobless rate rose to its highest since early 2021 at 5.0%." Reuters. Taxes are crucial for foreign investors. In September, during President Donald Trump's second state visit to the UK, "The UK government says it has secured 150bn pounds worth of US investment which it hopes will create 7,600 jobs." BBC. If those investments come through, Britain should do well. Reeves is the first female Chancellor in Britain. Will her old fashioned 'tax and spend' (wikipedia) work? The rich disagree.

Help them enjoy India.

"English regional mayors will be given the power to charge tourists a tax for staying overnight in their towns and cities, Local Government Secretary Steve Reed has said." "The move would bring England into line with Scotland and Wales, which will both bring in tourist tax next year," and "Research suggests a levy of 1 pound per day in London could raise 91 million a year for the capital." BBC. "In 2024, overseas residents made 42.5 million visits to the UK, compared to 38.0 million visits in 2023." "Overseas residents spent, in cash terms, 32.5 billion (about $42.9 billion) in Great Britain in 2024, compared to 31.1 billion pounds (about $41 billion) in 2023." House of Commons Library. On the other hand, India received nearly 10 million foreign tourists in 2024, but nearly 31 million Indians went abroad. 2019 saw nearly 11 million visiting India and about 27 million Indians traveling abroad. pib.gov.in. On paper, "India saw 18.89 million international tourist arrivals at the end of 2023, just crossing the pre-pandemic level of 17.91 million in 2019." But, "non-resident Indians (NRIs) made up a big chunk of the arrivals. And arrivals from Bangladesh, many for medical care, made up another big chunk," wrote Varun Khosla. "Every dollar a tourist spends - on hotels, flights, local crafts, or food - directly adds to our foreign exchange. There is no need for shipping containers, trade deals, or port clearances," said Dipak Deva. "We have everything, except tourists," wrote financial adviser Suraj Kumar Talreja. If we had 100 million foreign visitors every year it would create "billions in foreign exchange, hundreds of thousands of jobs, thriving rural economies and a global soft power leap." "We don't need to reinvent the Taj Mahal," but we need to get rid of "dirty public spaces, aggressive touting, scams, patchy infrastructure, poor marketing abroad and a complicated visitor experience." BT. Recently a video from a UK vlogger traveling by train in India said that a fellow passenger put his foot on his seat despite repeated requests not to do so. "Some dude just spat on my arm." "He looked at me, said something and it went all on my arm. Big gob of it," he wrote. NDTV. "An irony of Indian history is that much of its finest heritage lay buried and forgotten for centuries and was rediscovered by British colonial archaeologists." Sir Alexander Cunningham "identified and mapped ancient sites from Taxila to Sanchi, Sarnath and Bodh Gaya, reconstructing a lost geography of Buddhism," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. "James Princep succeeded in translating the Brahmi script, making it possible to read ancient pillars and rock edicts of Emperor Ashoka," wrote Aiyar. Foreigners may have excavated most of Egypt's pyramids but, "Last year the country drew 15.7 million visitors who spent a record $15 billion," despite enormous political turmoil since the uprising in 2011. ddnews.gov.in. The present government is trying to claim India's past as glorious Hindu achievements (Reuters) and that India is "vishvaguru" which means teacher of the world (wikipedia). If we welcomed foreigners and gave them a pleasant experience, instead of spitting on them, they would learn a lot more. Otherwise, it is just hot air for the great unwashed. Totally useless.          

We trust in Ram.

"India's economy gathered further pace in October as resurgent festive spending, firmer urban consumption, continued rural demand and the boost from recent GST rate reductions helped lift activity despite persistent external headwinds, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said." "Food prices acted as the single biggest drag on headline CPI (consumer price index)," and "Core inflation - excluding food and fuel - moderated to 4.3% in October from 4.4% in September." ET. "India's annual retail inflation slowed to a record low of 0.25% in October from a revised 1.44% in September, government data showed." Reuters. "Experts said this boosted chances of an interest rate cut at the December monetary policy meeting," but "With second-quarter GDP growth estimated at over 7%, the central bank must determine whether easing policy risks overstimulating an already healthy economy." ET. Daniel Moss thinks, "Fixing this will require more than the standard prescription - simply cutting interest rates. The promise of an aggressive and sustained easing is needed, one that brings its own share of challenges." "The rupee is the worst-performing Asian currency this year against the dollar and, on 21 Nov, it fell to a record low." Gold prices "drove up personal care and effects inflation to 57.8%; excluding gold, headline CPI turned negative to -0.57% y-on-y." Reduction in GST rates resulted in moderating inflation by 85 basis points (bps), when estimates suggested a moderation of 65-75 bps, said SBI Research. "Gold is an asset, not a biscuit," and should be removed from the CPI basket, wrote Monica Halan. "When inflation is too low, it is an indicator of weak demand. This impacts the firms' desire to produce more and when firms cut production wages suffer."Also, the government collects tax on nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and when inflation is too low tax collections falls." So the RBI must cut rates. HT. The problem is that demand is very strong. "India's sweeping consumption tax cut drove shoppers to splurge," so that "Sales across the country topped Rs 6 trillion ($67.6 billion), with items like jewelry, electronic, apparels. furnishing and sweets most in demand." ET. "The economy will be powered in the third quarter (Sept-Dec) by a booming marriage season," and "A Bank of Baroda study pegged consumption related to festivals, including marriages, at Rs 12-14 trillion in the quarter. Wedding expenditure alone is estimated at Rs 4.5-5 trillion." ET. So, should the RBI slash the cost of borrowing? An editorial in the Mint disagrees. "High inflation favors borrowers, as it slowly reduces the value of what must be paid." But price stability "shields our savings and relieves the hard-up of their struggle to make ends meet." Also, as the purchasing power of the rupee declines at a steady modest rate, it facilitates long-range investments in the local currency. So, the RBI should resist the temptation to reduce its policy rates unless there is a possibility of deflation. The problem with that is that the government is the biggest borrower and the RBI is but a branch of the government (rbi.org.in). Perhaps, the rupee will be the deciding factor as the RBI had to support it yesterday after it closed at an all-time low of 89.49 to the dollar on Friday, 21 November. Reuters. Will the rupee hold up, or collapse? "In God we trust" is the official motto of the US. wikipedia. An unofficial one for India is 'Ram Bharose' (trust in Ram). Is it time to panic? God help us.        

Clean streets, clean air.

"Delhi's air quality continues to remain in 'very poor' category, with winter weather conditions worsening it further. This morning, "areas such as Akshardham, AIIMS and ITO were covered with layers of toxic smog, significantly reducing visibility and raising health concerns for residents." Levels of the Air Quality Index (AQI) varied from 388 to 451. News24. Thankfully, "Government-backed apps like SAFAR and SAMEER top out at 500 - the upper limit India's AQI scale, which converts complex data on various pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide and ozone, into a single number." Private sources measure AQI at 600, even at 1000, on some days. Anything above 500 is very harmful for health so the government does not want to create panic. BBC. It does not matter if someone dies of 500 or 1000 so why create panic? Pollution data went missing for a major portion of 11 November and there was no response from the Central Pollution Control Board or the Commission for Air Quality Management. TOI. It was for our good. Because yesterday Delhi Police arrested 15 people for protesting against worsening pollution and there was a brief scuffle after some protesters apparently used pepper spray. TOI. "The Delhi government...directed private offices to operate with 50% on-site staff and to allow the remaining employees  to work from home as a precautionary measure under the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) Stage III." ET. Presumably to stop people driving to work and minimizing vehicle exhausts. The government has diverted blame solely to vehicles and all vehicles in Delhi have to obtain a Pollution Under Control (PUC) certificate every few months (Transport Department) or be fined Rs 10,000 for not having one even if the vehicle is absolutely within limits (DH). Divert blame and collect enormous ransom. Genius. However, according to scientific studies most pollution is caused by open fires - from burning of garbage and biomass to cooking and heating - contributing over half of PM2.5 and PM10 particles. TOI. Tardy collection of waste by the municipality forces residents to burn garbage to clear their streets. In 2022, the North MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) had 32,000 sanitation workers, the East had 14,000 and the South had a total of 20,500 for a grand total of 66,500 sanitation workers. TIE. In addition, a confidential number of sanitation workers are employed by the New Delhi Municipal Council (NDMC) (wikipedia), which is in charge of the exclusive central neighborhood of Delhi where our feudal lords and ladies reside. An effective solution would be to remove all garbage from city streets throughout the day so that there is nothing left to burn. Also, remove all stray cattle so that people cannot use dung cakes for cooking and heating (HT). With domestic cooking gas costing Rs 843 for 14.2 kg (goodreturns.in), the poor save money by burning dung cakes, wood, paper or any combustible material they can collect from the streets for cooking and heating, so proper cleaning and removal of cattle will have immediate salutary effect. But, would they want to upset the vote bank  (wikipedia). The middle class, despised and neglected by politicians and civil servants, are protecting the environment by re-gifting unwanted gifts they receive during festivals, wrote Prof Tulsi Jayakumar. Others are re-gifting pollution. Just clean the streets. Please.    

We are Indians.

"India's strong domestic economy and a smaller-than-expected hit to exports are giving New Delhi more room to negotiate a trade deal with Washington, which has imposed tariffs as high as 50% on imports from the country, Indian sources and analysts said." "domestic tax cuts on hundreds of consumer items since September are boosting local demand and helping exporters stay competitive." Reuters. That may be because India's trade is so small and it persistently runs a trade deficit because it exports so little. In fiscal 2024-25, our merchandise exports were $437.42 billion and services exports were $383.51 billion for a total of $820.93 billion. Total imports were $915.19 billion for a trade deficit of -$94.26 billion. pib.gov.in. In contrast, in 2023, China's total exports were $3.380 trillion, total imports were $2.557 trillion, leading to a positive trade balance of $823 billion. WITS. China's trade surplus was higher than our total exports. As an example of how weak our trade is, India's goods exports to China during April-October increased by 24.7% to just $10.03 billion while we imported goods worth $73.99 billion for a deficit of $64 billion. ET. Cannot get rich by giving money away. Not surprising, "The Indian rupee hit a fresh lifetime low of 89.61 against the dollar on Friday (21 Nov), pressured by US sanctions imposed on certain Indian firms linked to the Iranian oil deal." "The currency breached its previous record low of 88.80, which it had touched in late September." ET. "On average, the rupee falls about 2-3% against the dollar annually; in crisis years, the depreciation is much higher." "Between 5 November 2024, when Donald Trump was re-elected as the US president, and 21 October 2025, the rupee has lost over 4% against the dollar." But "The Indian economy is in decent health, with no obvious trigger for a sharp depreciation." Mint. If the Indian economy is resilient and in "decent health" why is our currency falling? It's not as if the US economy is going gangbusters, with high inflation, an uncertain job market and a Fox News poll showing 76% of Americans are pessimistic about the economy. CNN. In June the RBI cut its policy rate by 50 basis points for a total reduction of 100 basis points in 2025, "signaling the central bank's strong intent to stimulate credit demand and revive economic activity by lowering costs." HT. Totally unnecessary because, "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.8% in Q1 of FY2025-26 over the growth rate of 6.5% during Q1 of FY2024-25." pib.gov.in. Why was the RBI trying to revive the economy which was already racing ahead at lightning speed. Does not seemed to have lowered the borrowing cost for the government. "Indian government bond slumped to a three-week low...after the rupee hit a fresh low," as "The benchmark 10-year yield ended at 6.5665%, its highest since October 31." ET. Seems that the bond market is adding a premium of over 100 basis points over the RBI's lending rate in lending to the Indian government. Showing a lack of trust. Our economy is growing faster than that of the US but the rupee is weakening against the dollar. Americans are pessimistic but we are resilient. May be because we are Indians. We are like that only.   

Rocky stocks.

"Following its worst underperformance versus emerging markets since 1994, the Indian stock market is now getting back on its foot with Sensex and Nifty being near all-time peaks after a long gap of 14 months. In this month alone, at least 3 global brokerages Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and HSBC have released a barrage of bullish reports, projecting Sensex levels as high as 107,000 by December 2026." Because, "Both fiscal and monetary authorities have turned decisively pro-growth," with domestic investors pouring money into equities. ET. However, "As foreign investors sold shares worth Rs 1.02 trillion in the September quarter," "Financial services firms, especially non-banking finance companies, saw the biggest churn with foreign managers cutting their stakes in several mid- and small-sized lenders." ET. The market for initial public offerings (IPO) is booming. "Between 1 October 2024 to 24 October 2025 a record 288 companies filed draft prospectuses with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), in an attempt to raise approximately Rs 4.18 trillion." Of these, 111 IPOs went public, raising an all-time high of Rs 2.18 trillion. TOI. But, this is not the end. "India's primary market is preparing for one of its biggest years, with Equirus Capital projecting IPO fundraising of nearly Rs 1.77 trillion in 2026." ET. Veteran investor Shankar Sharma, Founder of GQuant Investech, labeled India's IPO market as the"dumbest in the history of IPO markets", driven by "dumb money" from retail investors. NDTV. "The most peculiar part of the current drama is the casual acceptance that a company can list its shares at a price that would make its promoters blush and then lose a quarter of its market value within months." "Of course, the sellers, especially the promoters and private investors, have already walked out of the room by then. They have booked their profits, offered polite smiles to cameras and made their exit," wrote Srinath Sridharan. But, where is the flood of money coming from? A survey by SEBI found that 53% of respondents are "aware of at least one securities market product, with urban areas registering a 74% rate, compared to 56% in rural areas." However, "Only 6.7% of the population actually invests in a mutual fund and 5.3% in equities." Mint. A note from CLSA Securities in August 2025 showed that "household financial assets declined from 49.7% in 2011-12 to 38.3% in 2-23-24. During this period, the share of household investment in equity and investment funds jumped from 12.8% to 26.8%." According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), low interest rates on bank deposits are pushing households into riskier assets in an attempt to increase returns. "Any adverse events or contagion in markets could potentially spell disaster for household finances." The RBI is unconcerned, wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Shouldn't the RBI and SEBI warn investors against speculating in the markets? The World Bank "starkly describes the control that the finance ministry wields over RBI and other regulatory agencies, "wrote Singhal. And, Shankar Sharma "warned that India's growing reliance on stock market taxes to fund capital expenditures risks leaving the economy vulnerable." ET. Are Indians being forced into investing in stocks? What happens if the bubble pops? Will millions of households become bankrupt? Indian households hold 28,000 tonnes of gold (Ajay Bagga). Gold prices would collapse if they sell. The RBI holds 888 tonnes of gold in reserve. BS. Its reserves will shrink. Perhaps it would be easier to care for citizens.