No biscuits? There's the Moon.

"The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) stood at 57.5 in October 2024, compared with the flash estimate of 57.4 and after September's reading of 56.5. Output growth accelerated amid favorable market conditions, with new orders rising at a rate stronger than the average in nearly 20 years." MC. "HSBC India Services PMI was revised higher to 58.5 in October 2024 from a flash estimate of 57.9, following a final reading of 57.7 in September, which was the lowest in over a year. It marked the 39th consecutive month of expansion in services activity, and faster than expectations of 58.3, driven by robust sales and strong demand conditions." Rise of both manufacturing and services should indicate a rising consumer demand but, "The urban slowdown within the domestic fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market that has hurt the financial performance of most majors in the September quarter is due to rising house prices and low wage hikes, Britannia's vice chairman and MD Varun Berry said." FE. Britannia is known for its biscuits. "There is now a recognition that the depressed demand might contribute to overall slowdown in the prospects for growth in the economy. Despite the festival season, there doesn't seem to have been much of a revival." Because, "very low levels of income for most people continues to be characteristic of the Indian economy," wrote Dipa Sinha. Low demand along with higher output should mean a fall in prices but, "Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October is 6.21%." Food price inflation rose to 10.87% (Provisional) in October. pib.gov.in. Higher spending on food means people are forced to cut down on other expenses. Conditions must be so bad that, "In a bid to boost demand, industry lobby group CII has proposed that the Centre issue 'consumption vouchers' to citizens in the lower income group, which can be used to buy specified goods and services within six-eight months, while also recommending a 40% hike in daily wages under MGNREGA and a 33% increase for PM-KISAN beneficiaries." TOI. "For the past 15 years, incomes of ordinary Indians - those between the top 15% and 50% of the population - are stagnating. Over 120 million people between 18 and 35 are neither in education nor in employment." "The average resident of UP an Bihar continues to earn less than the average Bangladeshi or Nepali," wrote Rathin Roy. However, we can still reach for the Moon and Mars. "Experts around the world have marvelled at how little Indian Space Research Organisation's (ISRO) Moon, Mars and solar missions have cost. India spent $74 million on the Mars orbiter Mangalyaan and $75 million on last year's historic Chandrayaan-3 - less than $100 million spent on the sci-fi thriller Gravity." BBC. We may not afford biscuits but the Moon could be made of green cheese (wikipedia). And it's free. 

Problems of returning home.

A big area of concern with the election of Donald Trump as president of the US is "how far Trump will implement his anti-immigration agenda, especially his threat to deport illegal migrants." "A Pew Research Report puts undocumented Indian immigrants in US at over 725,000. Indians with qualifications waiting for US green card number over 1 mn." "India cannot pretend this is not its problem that's being exported to the West." And, "We must prepare a plan to bring back students and undocumented immigrants the West wants to send back," wrote R Jagannathan. That is well meaning but extremely naive. How will the government provide jobs with salaries matching those in Western countries? And, if the government gives preference to deported Indians over local youths it will create enormous anger. Many of those deported may have children who are citizens of the countries of their birth and fees for international students are very high in India. Britannica. A report from the International Labor Organization (ILO) published in March stated, "The youth unemployment rate has increased with the level of education, with the highest rates among those with a graduate degree or higher and higher among women than men. In 2022, the unemployment rate among youths was six times greater among persons with a secondary or higher level education (at 18.4%) and nine times higher among graduates (at 29.1%) than for persons who cannot read or write." Of the uneducated workers, "Unpaid family workers have contributed to 37% of the growth in India's workforce since 2017-18." "Unpaid family workers accounted for 18.3% of the workers in 2022-23 PLFS (Periodic Labour Force Survey) compared to 20.9% share of regular wages workers," wrote Abhishek Jha. "During the fiscal year from 2022-23, the unemployment rate of people aged 15 and above in Haryana stood 6.1%," according to India's Ministry of Labour and Emplyment, "But for people aged 15 to 24, the number was significantly higher - 45.4% across the country in the same year." CNN. Around 730,000 Indian students are studying in Canada, Australia and the UK and all three countries are cutting down on visas for Indians. ET. Apart from top students with scholarships, most of these so-called students are disguised migrants determined to stay in Western countries any way they can. As shown by thousands of students who queued up outside Tandoori Flame restaurant in Canada hoping for jobs as waiters and service staff. HT. Sweeping floors and cleaning toilets in Canada is preferable to returning to India because the label of Non-Resident Indian (NRI) bestows great respect back home. And this brings us to Canada. "Canada was the most popular relocation destination among all the countries reviewed, according to Jobseeker." And, "Despite tensions, Canada remained particularly popular among job seekers and those looking to relocate from India. ET. Relations are so poisoned that, "Once considered 'immigrant-friendly', Canada has seen a surge of racist remarks directed at Indian-origin immigrants both offline and online in the last few months." "According to the Canadian Race Relations Foundation, hate crimes against South Asians increased by 143% between 2019 and 2022." TOI. Politicians and bureaucrats don't care because they are subsidised by life-long handouts of taxpayer money. But for thousands, migrating was a way of surviving with a little human dignity. That is closing.  

Multi-millionaires and food vouchers.

 "Urban and rural markets have shown sequential recovery in consumer demand and rural areas continue to surpass urban areas in volume growth across most regions in India, according to Nielsen IQ." Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry "witnessed a 5.7% value-based growth and 4.1% volume growth on a 1.5% price growth in the July to September quarter." ET. "India is home to more than 220,000 people with a taxable income of over Rs 10 million. This is a five-fold increase over the past decade. Even more dramatically, 100,000 of them joined the group of high earners in just three years, since the onset of the Covid pandemic." ET. That is very odd because a most stringent lockdown was imposed on the whole nation from 25 March to 14 April 2020 and "was extended four times, each time with gradual relaxations". HT. The total shutdown of all economic activity in the whole country resulted in "GDP at constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 (April-June) 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 26.90 trillion, as against Rs 35.35 trillion in Q1 of 2019-20 showing a contraction of 23.9%." pib,gov.in. The actual contraction in the GDP was 24.4%. "GDP at Constant Prices in Q1 of 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 32.38 trillion, as against Rs 26.95 trillion in Q1 of 2020-21, showing a growth of 20.1% as compared to a contraction of 24.4% in Q1 2020-21," that data from MoSPI stated. Mint. Hence, even after a record 20.1% growth in the Q1 of 2021-22, the GDP was smaller at 32.38 trillion than in the Q1 of 2019-20 at Rs 35.35 trillion. Strange that in the 3 years since Covid a record 100,000 people have increased their taxable income to Rs 10 million. There is no mention of how many of them are politicians or government officials. So bad is the consumer demand that, "In a bid to boost demand, industry lobby group CII has proposed that the Centre issue 'consumption vouchers' to citizens in the lower income group, which can be used to buy specified goods and services within six-eight months, while also recommending a 40% hike in daily wages under MGNREGA and a 33% increase in PM-KISAN beneficiaries." TOI. When business fat cats are calling for handouts, things must be pretty desperate. India's GDP grew by 7.1% and 8.2% in the last two years and by 7.2% in the first quarter of 2024-25 and yet, "consumer goods sales have been rising only modestly, almost sluggishly. Bank credit is growing well below earlier rates." And "we are now witnessing something close to a crash in microfinance institutions (MFIs) that lend to the poor and small businesses," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. How is it that the GDP is growing at breakneck speed and multi-millionaires are doubling every three years while millions need 'consumption vouchers' to buy essentials? Because, "India might be among the top five economies in the world in terms of its total GDP, but is also ranked 136 in terms of per capita income." The All India Financial Inclusion Survey (NAFIS) 2021-22, just released by NABARD shows that "the average monthly household income is Rs 12, 698 to Rs 13,661 for agricultural households and Rs 11,438 in non-agricultural households," wrote Dipa Sinha. "So, on average a rural person has an income of less than Rs 35,000 per annum while the per capita GDP of India for 2021-22 was almost five times (Rs 1,71,498)." With consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5.49% and food inflation at 9.24% (mospi.gov.in), a person earning Rs 35,000 a year will not afford even two meals a day, let alone three. We are at 136 in per capita income, but rural income must be near the lowest level in the world. No wonder, no one talks about it. Total silence.       

Handcuffed by Pelosi and Biden.

With Arizona being the last state to declare its result in the presidential election, "Donald Trump has completed a clean sweep of swing states, bringing his electoral college total to 312, compared to 226 for Vice President Kamala Harris, reports have stated." Trump also convincingly won the popular vote, getting 74.6 million votes nationwide, or 50.5%, while Harris received 70.9 million, or 48%. Mint. Most states are almost certain to vote for one or other of the parties but seven states are considered to be battleground, or swing, states. These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. CBS. In 2020, Biden won six of the seven states, by flipping five of them - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. CNN. All these states were won by Trump in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton. NYT. North Carolina voted Republican in all three elections, while Nevada voted Democrat in 2016 and 2020 but voted for Trump this time. In 2020, during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, Biden did not travel around the country meeting voters, preferring to stay holed up in his home in Wilmington, Delaware. US News. Covid-19 heavily influenced the voting with the Democrat-controlled media constantly focused on the people infected and the death count. USA Today. Fear of Covid naturally led many voters to vote by mail with a record number, in excess of 65.6 million, casting their votes by post. Former Denver elections director Amber Reynolds "analyzed all states in 2020 and found that 32 states 'are missing pieces of policy or best practices that ensure a secure mail ballot process such as a sufficient data integrity process, signature verification processes and/or signature deficiency cure process'." wikipedia. This led to a suspicion that the Democrats had stolen the election and a section of Republican supporters have become 'Election Deniers'. WP. The suspicion of the whole process is natural seeing most of the mainstream media is controlled by Democrat billionaires. In the 2024 election, Analysis of ABC, CBS and NBC by the Media Research Center (MRC)...found that Harris has received 78% positive coverage on broadcast evening news since July, versus Trump, who has been subject to 85% of negative coverage on the same networks." MRC found that these so-called news channels "spent more than 200 minutes of airtime, most of it negative, harping on controversies surrounding Trump while glossing over, or in many cases, outright ignoring controversies related to Harris." Fox. These should be classified as propaganda channels. "The Harris campaign raised more than $1 billion, ahead of Trump's haul, and fielded a larger voter operation in battleground states. Trump overcame these advantages by running less as a candidate and more like a leader of a movement." Trump won "by doubling down on the very things Democrats said made him unfit to return to the Oval Office," wrote Alex Leary & Tarini Parti. Former Democrat Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi has blamed Joe Biden for not dropping out of the race earlier. ET. But, Pelosi is largely responsible for Harris's defeat because she stubbornly blocked funding for a wall between the US and Mexico (ABC) which would have reduced the flood of illegal migrants entering the US, and which Trump repeatedly used in his campaign speeches. Poor Harris. Handcuffed by Pelosi and Biden. 

Living on debt.

"PWC's latest 'Pulse Survey' showed that 61% of executives polled expect to see the US economy fall into a recession over the next six months. What is worrying is that this figure is up from 49% in the June report." ET. "The US economy grew at a healthy 2.8% annual rate from July through September, with consumers helping drive growth despite the weight of still high interest rates." "Despite widespread predictions that the economy would succumb to a recession, it has kept growing, with employers still hiring and consumers still spending." ET. "US manufacturing activity slumped to a 15-month low and factories faced higher prices for inputs," as "PMI fell to 46.5% last month, the lowest level since July 2023." "A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.3% of the economy." Reuters. "For much of the past half-century, economic life in the heart of North Carolina has been dominated by factory closings, joblessness and downgraded expectations." "Yet over the last few years, an infusion of investment in cutting edge industries such as biotechnology, computer chips and electric vehicles has lifted fortunes of long-struggling communities." Nearly one-third of $736 billion in investment is "flowing into communities that experienced the worst effects of the so-called China Shock." ET. The so-called Magnificent Seven - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - have a combined market cap of over $16 trillion. Reuters. "The (US) Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point...as policymakers took note of a job market that has 'generally eased' while inflation continues to move towards the US central bank's 2% target." ET. Europe, on the other hand, is growing more slowly. "Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP expanded 0.9%, the best performance since Q1 2023, compared to a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter and higher than forecasts of 0.8%. The ECB expects the GDP in the Eurozone to expand 0.8% this year." Trading Economics. Worse maybe yet to come. "President-elect Donald Trump's proposed protectionist policies, including hefty tariffs, will hurt Europe's economic standing - leaving crisis-hit Germany particularly vulnerable, Goldman Sachs predicts. Following Trump's re-election, the investment bank cut its growth forecast for the region, predicting fresh trade tensions with the United States, pressure on Europe to increase defense spending and a hit to business confidence from higher geopolitical risk." CNN. In 1986, George Soros warned that the stock market rally in the US was diverting attention from ballooning debt. Now, "The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reckons that by 2035 President-elect Donald Trump's campaign plans will add up to $15.6 trillion to the US public debt." What is worse is that "The International Monetary Fund calculates that global public debt this year will breach $100 trillion, or 93% of world GDP, and predicts it will hit 100% by 2030." Reuters. Recession in the US may reduce imports. How will other countries manage their debts? Worrying. Very.     

Hoping it's a one-off.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in India has been trending down, reaching 3.5% in July and 3.7% in August (RI), which are within the government target of 4%, with a margin of 2% on either side, for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (ET). "Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Prime Index (CPI) for the month of September, 2024 is 5.49%." But, this was because Food Price Inflation was 9.24% (Provisional). mospi.gov.in.  However, in its October meeting, "Five of the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%,...RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said." Mint. Prices of food are dependent on supplies which cannot be increased by the RBI. So, why didn't the RBI reduce its policy rate, which would allow banks to reduce the rate at which they lend, thus encouraging businesses and people to spend more by borrowing, which would boost profits and share prices? asked Vivek Kaul. Because sustained high prices of food would result in demands for higher wages and thus cause higher inflation generally. A negative real interest rate, which is "an interest rate adjusted to remove the effects of inflation" (Investopedia) during Covid has forced people to divert their savings to stock markets in search of higher returns. Long term bank savings have fallen which is restricting banks long-term lending such as for highly profitable housing loans. By sticking to its policy rate the RBI hopes to retain more money in long-term savings in banks by stemming the flow of investments into markets. Also, Governor Das completes his second term in December (wikipedia) and will not have to answer to the Finance Minister after he retires. A few days ago, Das said that "the economic activity in India remains strong, with the agricultural and services sectors doing well, brushing aside the chatter that the Indian economy is slowing." "The RBI, last month, retained its growth forecast for the current financial year at 7.2%." ET. The retirement party should be a jolly affair. "GDP is growing at 6.7%" but "Income growth has been anemic: casual and regular workers in 2023 earned a monthly wage 1% lower than in previous year, per and International Labor Organization report based on government data." Hindustan Unilever's net profit fell 2% in the September quarter, Reliance Retail's revenue dropped by 1% and Shoppers Stop "logged its second straight quarter in the red." "Nearly half of the top 100 listed firms that have reported earnings for the September quarter missed estimates by more then 4%, the highest since March 2020, according to Venugopal Garre and his colleagues at Bernstein." They are "hoping the slowdown is a one-off anomaly." Reuters. Hence, "Six years after India's shadow banking sector blew up, pockets of stress are building again, prompting firms to start pulling back amid scrutiny from the regulator." "These firms are grappling with an increase in bad loans, margin compression and intense competition for deposits, according to bankers and analysts." ET. Still predicting 7.2% growth. Were the fingers crossed? Maybe the toes.   

To do, or not to do, that is the question.

"The 2023 World Air Quality report by IQAir, a global air quality monitoring platform, found Delhi to be the polluted city on the planet with an annual PM 2.5 reading of 92.7 micrograms/cubic meter." PM 2.5 stands for 'particulate matter' with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller. "These particles come in many sizes and shapes and can be made up of hundreds of different chemicals." Fine particles like PM 2.5 can get into our lungs, and even blood stream, and are the greatest danger to human health. epa.gov. Delhi traps pollution because it is surrounded by hills and mountains, the so-called 'valley effect'. About 35% of pollution comes from surrounding towns and cities, and 13% from the transport sector. In winter 32% of PM 2.5 comes from household cooking and heating using biomass, wrote Sayantan Bera. Efforts at reducing pollution should be extremely beneficial for everyone. Not so simple. "The 10 New Insights in Climate Science report of 2024-25 has highlighted that while air-particulate-matter reduction has significant public health benefits, it also reduces the net cooling effect that it exerts on the climate." Reducing air pollution will increase the effects of global warming. "So, as of today, we seem to be on track towards a 3 degree Celsius average-rise-in-global temperature world, which would be a disaster for the planet," wrote Leena Srivastava. "Since 1990, India has lost around 420 million hectares of forest land, which is alarming as this trend is supposed to continue due to the rising demands of the growing population and economic growth." "As per the climate transparency report, heat related incidents caused a 191 billion labor loss hours in 2022." Heat waves cost 252 lives in 2023 and, "India has suffered a loss of $159 billion, of 5.4% of GDP." ET. It's not just air pollution or chopping down our forests, "In a recent study, India has emerged as the world's top plastic polluter, releasing 9.3 million tonnes (Mt) of plastic annually. It now constitutes one-fifth of global plastic emissions, the study revealed in nature." TOI. "Climate change due to rising temperature and changing pattern of monsoon rainfall in India could cost the Indian economy 2.8% of its GDP and depress the living standards of nearly half of its population by 2050, RBI's Department of Economic and Policy Research (DEPR) says." "India may account for 34 million of the projected 80 million global job losses caused by heat-related stress." Forbes. That would be an absolute disaster. "Asia's fastest-growing economies are hiding a dirty secret: Their youngest workers are battling stubbornly high rates of unemployment." "Though India's youth unemployment has come down in recent years, it remains above the global average." Mint. In short, pollution is killing people, but reducing particulate matter will increase the heat effect of climate change, causing loss in GDP growth, which will increase unemployment, causing poverty and possible social disorder. Seems like a case of damned if you do and damned if you don't. No wonder politicians seem frozen. All over the world. 

Make the citizens rich.

"Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in October, in gross terms, were Rs 1.87 trillion, an 8.9% increase from the previous year, according to data from the finance ministry." "In April 2024, GST collections reached a record high of Rs 2.10 trillion. The total gross GST for the fiscal year 2023-24 was Rs 20.18 trillion, an increase of 11.7% from the previous fiscal year." ET. "India's manufacturing growth gained momentum in October after decelerating for three months as demand improved significantly, helping in job creation and leading to better business outlook, according to a business survey." The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 57.5 in October from an eight-month low of 56.5 in September." ET. "E-commerce platforms recorded total sales of nearly Rs 1 trillion (about $11.9) during the month-long festive season that ended last week," as "Demand from non-metro consumers, and increased purchases of luxury brands boosted transactions." The highest demand was for smartphones. ET. "A rise in defaults by over-leveraged small borrowers is hitting India's top lenders, with bank executives and analysts expecting higher levels of stress in personal loans and micro-credit segments over the last year." Bad loans had dropped to a low of 2.8% of all assets as of end-March, according to the RBI. "In the September quarter, however, five of the eight largest private sector banks have reported an increase in bad loans." "Most banks have also increased provisions, or funds set aside to cover bad loans, in anticipation of a rise in defaults." Reuters. Also, "Rising delinquencies in credit card receivables have made banks wary of ramping up subscriber additions in the festive season. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that the pace of new card additions slowed to 620,000 from 920,000 in August," and "New card issuances have fallen by more than 64% from the year earlier." The delinquencies in private loans and credit cards may be because private spending was being financed by borrowing. "Private consumption, historically the backbone of India's GDP, shows troubling signs of deceleration,dropping from 58.1% of GDP in FY22 to 55.8% in FY24." "As we are in the Diwali season - a time traditionally characterised by increased consumer spending - there are signs of a lull." Even "the FMCG sector, generally resilient even in slowdowns, reports a shift toward essential items as inflation dampens demand." DH. How is the GST collection rising when consumption is falling and defaults are rising? A very large reason must be an uncontrolled rise in prices along with a rise in sales of high value goods and services. "The US-based Pew Research Center projected the pre-Covid strength of the Indian middle-class - defined as those earning between USD 10_USD 20 or Rs 25,000 - Rs 50,000 a month - at about 99 million." TNIE. That is a very small number defined by paltry earnings. Squeezing them relentlessly will only make them poorer. Only rich citizens make a rich nations.         

Trying to export people, not milk.

"Going purely by decibels on TV screens and social media, it would seem India's in a constant state of geopolitical siege." Our economy is no match for China. "It's at 20% of China's GDP. As a market, China offers 5-10 times the size of India across products and services." "India's current manufacturing architecture - in labor and infra - is struggling to match up to Vietnam and is not always the default alternative to any China+1 initiative." "The only foreign policy that means anything is fast economic growth. Rest will fall into place," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. We need trade for the economy to grow. "India's approach to free trade can appear contradictory. Officials insist they are serious about  closing new deals with the UK and the European Union and improving older ones with countries such as Australia." "Indian officials still tend to think of trade as a zero-sum game, with tariffs as the only real levers." "Global counterparts often wonder at how India can produce new 'red lines' out of nowhere, aimed at protecting one sector after another," wrote Mihir Sharma. "India has bilateral trade agreements with 14 countries or economic blocs, four of the most substantial ones of these have gone back to the drawing board, for review or fine tuning." "Even the relatively recent with the UAE is undergoing review at the instance of India," because "there has been a sharp rise in imports of gold, silver and jewellery from Dubai, impacting government revenues and domestic industry." FE. "There will be no free trade agreement with the European Union if the bloc insists on India opening up its dairy sector, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said." ET. "With 25% of global milk production, India is the world's largest producer." "India exported 63,738.47 MT of dairy products in 2023-224, valued at $272.64 million." And the top export destinations are "the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the US, Singapore and Bhutan." Export Import Data. If the EU reciprocates by opening its own dairy market equally we could double our milk exports. "Former UK minister Kemi Badenoch,..has said that she blocked the India-UK free trade agreement (FTA) due to demands for additional visas, according to UK media reports." TOI. Ever since 2014, when Mr Modi became Prime Minister, "New Delhi has chased the dream of a prosperous manufacturing sector. Yet to a stunning degree, these efforts have failed." "In 2012-13, exports approached 20% of sales. Last year, they dipped below 7%, and the proportion will likely be even lower this year." ET. Yet, 2000 years ago, Berenike on the shore of the Red Sea was "the landing point for generations of Indian merchants traveling to the Roman Empire." "It was India, not China, that was the greatest trading partner of the Roman Empire." Dawn. But then, there was no central government at the time trying to export people to the UK and not milk to the EU. Doesn't make sense. Does it.   

Slow drip of revelation.

In October, "Canada expelled six Indian diplomats including the high commissioner,..linking them to the murder of a Sikh separatist and alleging a broader effort to target Indian dissidents in Canada." Reuters. Hardly had the six left when Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said the remaining diplomats "are clearly on notice." "Clearly, we won't tolerate any diplomats that are in contravention of the Vienna Convention," she said. Ministry of External Affairs of India spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that "some of our consular officials were recently informed by the Canadian government that they have been and continued to be under audio and video surveillance. Their communications have also been intercepted." HT. Then, "India has been described as an adversary for the first time in an official Canadian government document." "In its section on cyber threat from 'state adversaries', it includes China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and India." HT. Fanning flames further, "The Canadian government alleged...that Indian Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was behind the plots to target Sikh separatists on Canadian soil." Reuters. "Amit Shah - often called India's 'second most powerful man' - is a formidable old friend, Mr Modi's closest confidant and the brains behind his election juggernaut." BBC. This drip, drip of provocation is like 'death by a thousand cuts' (wikipedia). And, if Mr Shah is involved, can Mr Modi be far behind? In response, the Indian government "summoned the country's diplomat to strongly protest the 'absurd and baseless' references made by their Minister before a parliamentary panel. New Delhi warned Ottawa that the leakage of 'unfounded insinuations' to discredit India will have serious consequences for the bilateral relationship." and "reiterated that Canada hasn't provided any evidence to back its claims." TOI. According to Nathalie Drouin, Canada's national security and intelligence adviser, India canceled the first meeting on grounds of "administrative technicality" and then on 10 October, Canadian police officers waited in Washington DC, "while the Indian officials who had confirmed their participation, did not show up." Finally, "Drouin, Deputy Foreign Minister Morrison and the Deputy Commissioner of RCMP - traveled to Singapore to meet India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to apprise him of the evidence gathered." DH. From this it seems that Canada has made every effort to present its side of the case to India but India just keeps on repeating that no evidence has been provided. "Every year 150,000 students from Punjab go to Canada, Australia, the UK and other countries. Of them nearly, 70% go to Canada." TNIE. These are actually migrants, going in the guise of students, with no intention of ever returning to India. With relations almost severed with Canada, and Australia and the UK cutting down, all these young people will be stuck in Punjab with no jobs and no future to aspire to. It's a dangerous cocktail. And, Pakistan is just across the border. Canada has nothing to lose. Do we?        

Godi or bed - it's not journalism.

"Coverage on ABC, CBS and NBC News of the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been the most 'lopsided in history', a new study released one week before the election found. Analysis from the Media Research Center (MRC)...found that Harris has received 78% positive coverage on broadcast evening news since July, versus Trump, who has been subject to 85% negative coverage on the same networks." No wonder only 31% of people trust the US media. Fox. In India, we have a "godi media" which means the media 'sitting on lap' or 'lapdog' media, for its craven support of the present government. This moniker was coined by veteran journalist Ravish Kumar. wikipedia. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has been the sole power in a Unipolar world. Yale. So, it is only natural that the US invented the "embedded media" (Britannica), when it forced journalists to bed with soldiers during its criminal invasion of Iraq in 2002 based on outrageous lies about the presence of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) (Britannica). This shameless hugging of journalists was meant to conceal war crimes such as the use of white phosphorus in the capture of Fallujah. wikipedia. The US arrogantly lectures the world on its First Amendment which "protects freedom of speech, the press, assembly, and the right to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." The White House. The truth is that all its news media companies are controlled by billionaires (Investopedia) which means that their coverage of current affairs are biased by the interests of their owners. "For the first time in decades, The Washington Post will not endorse a candidate in this year's election." "The Post reported the decision not to endorse was made by the newspaper's billionaire owner, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, citing two sources briefed on the matter." "The Post's editorial page staffers had drafted an endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris and it was ready to be approved by its board." CNN. In an op-ed, "Jeff Bezos described the move as a principled decision which eventually reflects the commitment of the newspaper towards independence," and "emphasized on the need for media credibility acknowledging the fact that public trust in journalism has declined." ET. Why should the Post endorse a candidate if it is a newspaper? Does it not become a representative of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) (wikipedia) by doing so? Eugene Mayer, who bought the Post in 1933, laid down seven principles. "The first mission of a newspaper is to tell the truth as nearly as the truth may be ascertained," and "The newspaper shall not be an ally of any special interest." The Washington Post. While journalists have the right to vote for the candidate of their choice, by endorsing Harris the Post would have become a representative of the DNC. Embedded, as it were. Godi or bed, it is not journalism. 

Are they suckers?

Diwali is the first day of the business new year and, even though it is a public holiday, it is considered auspicious to trade on the markets on that day. This is called 'muhurat (an auspicious time) trading' (rekhta dictionary). Both the indices finished higher. "The S&P BSE Sensex was up 335.06 to 79,724.12, while the NSE Nifty50 settled 94.20 points higher at 24,299.55." Auto, realty and power sectors were up 1% each. India Today. When markets climb to record levels some people make enormous gains. "Through this October, Dalal Street presented a sharp study in contrasts - lofty records," as "foreign investors pulled Rs 1 trillion out of Indian equities in October, beating the record in the Covid-ravaged March of 2020 with consummate ease." But this was more than matched by domestic funds (DII) investing a record amount. ET. "Repatriation of dividend income, profits and reinvested earnings by overseas portfolio investors, private equity firms and companies operating locally totalled $12.2 billion in the April-June quarter, more than double what they did five years ago," and "Total investment income outflows have almost doubled to $21.6 billion from $11 billion in April-June of 2019." ET. Foreign investors were also helped by a relatively stronger rupee by getting more dollars in exchange. "The RBI's relentless intervention has helped the rupee. The central bank has sold dollars on almost all days in the last two weeks, not allowing the rupee to fall and dampening volatility." Even as foreign investors net sold $11 billion of Indian equities in October. ET. Despite the downturn in October, the Indian frontline indices concluded Samvat 2080 with over 25% gains." Samvat is a Hindu lunisolar calendar. wikipedia. "Amid strong interest from retail investors, 336 companies have made their stock market debuts in Samvat 2080, with 248, or 74%, coming from the SME (small and medium enterprises) segment, according to Trndlyne data. Nearly 100 of these IPOs have launched with listing gains exceeding 50%, while 132 saw subscription rates surpassing 100%," and "163 IPOs are currently trading above their issue prices." Mint. Also, "With the capital markets at historic highs, startup IPOs are seen as exciting new opportunities in companies that could represent a new way of doing business." But, "IPO over-subscription of 100 times to 200 times should not be taken as a ringing endorsement of the company's fundamentals." Because, "As an investor, it can be hard to avoid the fear of missing out," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "Historically, IPOs have typically been seen as a way for companies to sell the public new shares in order to raise money to finance new investments and expand their business." But now, IPOs are an avenue to provide a profitable exit to venture capitalists and private equity investors, wrote Vivek Kaul. Foreign investors, venture capitalists and promoters are certainly making huge profits. But, what about retail investors? Are they confirming that "There's a sucker born every minute?" (wikipedia).         

Catch the seven first.

"They're Wall Street's big guns." The shares of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla have risen so high that it has "prompted a Bank of America analyst to dub them 'The Magnificent Seven', a nod to a 1960 Western about a gang of gunslingers led by Steve McQueen, Yul Brynner and Charles Bronson." Reuters. On 30 October, "Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, reported stellar third-quarter earnings but also drove the combined market cap of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants to an unprecedented $16.8 trillion." Benzinga. To put it in perspective, that is more than five times India's nominal GDP at $3.4 trillion (worldometer). "The slowdown in consumer demand reported by a number of consumer goods companies has been dubbed the 'shrinkage of India's middle class' by Nestle management." Companies have earned "abnormally high profits" by targeting the premium segment. That is because real household income has fallen along with savings, due to "the acute K-shaped post-pandemic recovery is characterised by a thin upper arm and a thick lower arm; a feature officials have denied," wrote Dhananjay Sinha. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his 'Make in India' initiative in 2014 with the aim of increasing the growth rate of the manufacturing sector to 12-14% per annum, creating 100 million additional manufacturing jobs and increasing the share of manufacturing to 25% of GDP. wikipedia. However, the growth rate of manufacturing has averaged around 4%, share of manufacturing in GDP has fallen from 18.3% to 14.72% of India's gross value added (GVA) and "Between 2016-17 and 2022-23, the manufacturing sector has lost almost 1 million workers," wrote Prof Christophe Jaffrelot. Make in India has been a barrier to exports. "In 2012-13, exports approached 20% of sales. Last year they dipped below 7%," and "If not for the growth in mobile phone exports, the number would have been even more dire." Because, "New Delhi's priority has been to cut down on imports, not to grow exports, and companies have noticed." "If a government can be lobbied to erect protectionist barriers, that's always the least-cost path to outsize profits for any domestic producer," wrote Mihir Sharma. With tariffs restricting imports, Indian companies are able to sell substandard goods and services to hapless citizens. But you can't sell them abroad. So, "While India has bilateral trade agreements with 14 countries or economic blocs, four of the most substantial ones have gone back to the drawing board, for review or fine-tuning. Even the recent pact with the UAE is undergoing a review at the instance of India, reflecting lack of enough detailing before at least some of these agreements were finalized." FE. "India may take nearly 75 years just to achieve one-fourth of US income per capita, as per a recent World Bank report." TOI. But first, we have to catch the 'Magnificent Seven'. Does not look likely. Does it?