Depends on the yields.

"India is set to officially join the JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Series of indices today, a move that could potentially lead to $25-30 billion inflows into the country. It will happen in phases over a 10-month period as the domestic bonds will hold 10% weightage and add 1% every month starting this month." "The bonds with the highest weightage in the index (over 0.5%) consist of 7.18 GS 2033, 7.30 GS 2053, and 7.18 GS 2037." ET. Yield on 30-year US Treasuries is at 4.459% (CNBC) compared to 7.30 GS 2053, which is nearly 300 basis points lower. In its meeting on 12 June, the US Federal Reserve "maintained its key interest rate at 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh straight meeting." BS. Thus, yields on long-dated US Treasuries are less than the interest rate, indicating that the market expects the interest rate to come down as inflation is controlled. In its last meeting on 5 June, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its policy rate at 6.5% for the eighth successive time. Mint. But the yield on its 2033 bond is 7.30% showing that the market has no faith in its intention to control inflation in India. Curiously, the yield on 1-month US Treasury is 5.365% which means there is a severe inversion of the yield curve. "An inverted yield curve shows that long-term interest rates are less than short-term interest rates." "Sometimes referred to as a negative yield curve, the inverted yield curve has proven in the past to be a reliable indicator of a recession." Investopedia. The Indian rupee has weakened from Rs 3.30 against one US dollar in 1947 to Rs 83.28 to 1 dollar on 20 May. Forbes. This morning, 1 US dollar buys Rs 83.44. xe.com. With $25-30 billion expected to come into India, will the Indian rupee become much stronger against the dollar? If the US actually goes into a recession will the dollar become even weaker? "India has recorded a trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports, with nine of its top trading partners, including China, Russia, Singapore, and Korea in 2023-24, according to official data." "The trade deficit with China rose to $85 billion, Russia to $57.2 billion, Korea to $14.71 billion and Hong Kong to $12.2 billion in 2023-24." "India has a trade surplus of $36.74 billion with the US in 2023-24." BS. A stronger rupee will make our exports to the US more expensive and, combined with a recession in the US, could reduce the trade surplus and add to our total deficit of $238.3 billion. JP Morgan estimates that India's entry into its index "was likely to pull Rs 39,232 crore ($4.7 billion) from South Africa, Rs 27,546 crore ($3.3 billion) from Poland and Rs 26,712 crore ($3.2 billion) from Thailand." DH. "The problem that has always existed for countries that receive investment from portfolio investors of any kind is that money can just as suddenly leave a country as it floods in." "Redemption pressures, when it comes from a bunch of investors rather than just a few and when it is related to events happening in the global economy, can lead to a 'herd' effect. What started with just a few investors can end with almost all investors stampeding to the exit at the same time." Mint. "There is a tide in the affairs of men" (Shakepeare). Tide comes in, but goes out as well.