No biscuits? There's the Moon.

"The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) stood at 57.5 in October 2024, compared with the flash estimate of 57.4 and after September's reading of 56.5. Output growth accelerated amid favorable market conditions, with new orders rising at a rate stronger than the average in nearly 20 years." MC. "HSBC India Services PMI was revised higher to 58.5 in October 2024 from a flash estimate of 57.9, following a final reading of 57.7 in September, which was the lowest in over a year. It marked the 39th consecutive month of expansion in services activity, and faster than expectations of 58.3, driven by robust sales and strong demand conditions." Rise of both manufacturing and services should indicate a rising consumer demand but, "The urban slowdown within the domestic fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market that has hurt the financial performance of most majors in the September quarter is due to rising house prices and low wage hikes, Britannia's vice chairman and MD Varun Berry said." FE. Britannia is known for its biscuits. "There is now a recognition that the depressed demand might contribute to overall slowdown in the prospects for growth in the economy. Despite the festival season, there doesn't seem to have been much of a revival." Because, "very low levels of income for most people continues to be characteristic of the Indian economy," wrote Dipa Sinha. Low demand along with higher output should mean a fall in prices but, "Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October is 6.21%." Food price inflation rose to 10.87% (Provisional) in October. pib.gov.in. Higher spending on food means people are forced to cut down on other expenses. Conditions must be so bad that, "In a bid to boost demand, industry lobby group CII has proposed that the Centre issue 'consumption vouchers' to citizens in the lower income group, which can be used to buy specified goods and services within six-eight months, while also recommending a 40% hike in daily wages under MGNREGA and a 33% increase for PM-KISAN beneficiaries." TOI. "For the past 15 years, incomes of ordinary Indians - those between the top 15% and 50% of the population - are stagnating. Over 120 million people between 18 and 35 are neither in education nor in employment." "The average resident of UP an Bihar continues to earn less than the average Bangladeshi or Nepali," wrote Rathin Roy. However, we can still reach for the Moon and Mars. "Experts around the world have marvelled at how little Indian Space Research Organisation's (ISRO) Moon, Mars and solar missions have cost. India spent $74 million on the Mars orbiter Mangalyaan and $75 million on last year's historic Chandrayaan-3 - less than $100 million spent on the sci-fi thriller Gravity." BBC. We may not afford biscuits but the Moon could be made of green cheese (wikipedia). And it's free. 

Problems of returning home.

A big area of concern with the election of Donald Trump as president of the US is "how far Trump will implement his anti-immigration agenda, especially his threat to deport illegal migrants." "A Pew Research Report puts undocumented Indian immigrants in US at over 725,000. Indians with qualifications waiting for US green card number over 1 mn." "India cannot pretend this is not its problem that's being exported to the West." And, "We must prepare a plan to bring back students and undocumented immigrants the West wants to send back," wrote R Jagannathan. That is well meaning but extremely naive. How will the government provide jobs with salaries matching those in Western countries? And, if the government gives preference to deported Indians over local youths it will create enormous anger. Many of those deported may have children who are citizens of the countries of their birth and fees for international students are very high in India. Britannica. A report from the International Labor Organization (ILO) published in March stated, "The youth unemployment rate has increased with the level of education, with the highest rates among those with a graduate degree or higher and higher among women than men. In 2022, the unemployment rate among youths was six times greater among persons with a secondary or higher level education (at 18.4%) and nine times higher among graduates (at 29.1%) than for persons who cannot read or write." Of the uneducated workers, "Unpaid family workers have contributed to 37% of the growth in India's workforce since 2017-18." "Unpaid family workers accounted for 18.3% of the workers in 2022-23 PLFS (Periodic Labour Force Survey) compared to 20.9% share of regular wages workers," wrote Abhishek Jha. "During the fiscal year from 2022-23, the unemployment rate of people aged 15 and above in Haryana stood 6.1%," according to India's Ministry of Labour and Emplyment, "But for people aged 15 to 24, the number was significantly higher - 45.4% across the country in the same year." CNN. Around 730,000 Indian students are studying in Canada, Australia and the UK and all three countries are cutting down on visas for Indians. ET. Apart from top students with scholarships, most of these so-called students are disguised migrants determined to stay in Western countries any way they can. As shown by thousands of students who queued up outside Tandoori Flame restaurant in Canada hoping for jobs as waiters and service staff. HT. Sweeping floors and cleaning toilets in Canada is preferable to returning to India because the label of Non-Resident Indian (NRI) bestows great respect back home. And this brings us to Canada. "Canada was the most popular relocation destination among all the countries reviewed, according to Jobseeker." And, "Despite tensions, Canada remained particularly popular among job seekers and those looking to relocate from India. ET. Relations are so poisoned that, "Once considered 'immigrant-friendly', Canada has seen a surge of racist remarks directed at Indian-origin immigrants both offline and online in the last few months." "According to the Canadian Race Relations Foundation, hate crimes against South Asians increased by 143% between 2019 and 2022." TOI. Politicians and bureaucrats don't care because they are subsidised by life-long handouts of taxpayer money. But for thousands, migrating was a way of surviving with a little human dignity. That is closing.  

Multi-millionaires and food vouchers.

 "Urban and rural markets have shown sequential recovery in consumer demand and rural areas continue to surpass urban areas in volume growth across most regions in India, according to Nielsen IQ." Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry "witnessed a 5.7% value-based growth and 4.1% volume growth on a 1.5% price growth in the July to September quarter." ET. "India is home to more than 220,000 people with a taxable income of over Rs 10 million. This is a five-fold increase over the past decade. Even more dramatically, 100,000 of them joined the group of high earners in just three years, since the onset of the Covid pandemic." ET. That is very odd because a most stringent lockdown was imposed on the whole nation from 25 March to 14 April 2020 and "was extended four times, each time with gradual relaxations". HT. The total shutdown of all economic activity in the whole country resulted in "GDP at constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 (April-June) 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 26.90 trillion, as against Rs 35.35 trillion in Q1 of 2019-20 showing a contraction of 23.9%." pib,gov.in. The actual contraction in the GDP was 24.4%. "GDP at Constant Prices in Q1 of 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 32.38 trillion, as against Rs 26.95 trillion in Q1 of 2020-21, showing a growth of 20.1% as compared to a contraction of 24.4% in Q1 2020-21," that data from MoSPI stated. Mint. Hence, even after a record 20.1% growth in the Q1 of 2021-22, the GDP was smaller at 32.38 trillion than in the Q1 of 2019-20 at Rs 35.35 trillion. Strange that in the 3 years since Covid a record 100,000 people have increased their taxable income to Rs 10 million. There is no mention of how many of them are politicians or government officials. So bad is the consumer demand that, "In a bid to boost demand, industry lobby group CII has proposed that the Centre issue 'consumption vouchers' to citizens in the lower income group, which can be used to buy specified goods and services within six-eight months, while also recommending a 40% hike in daily wages under MGNREGA and a 33% increase in PM-KISAN beneficiaries." TOI. When business fat cats are calling for handouts, things must be pretty desperate. India's GDP grew by 7.1% and 8.2% in the last two years and by 7.2% in the first quarter of 2024-25 and yet, "consumer goods sales have been rising only modestly, almost sluggishly. Bank credit is growing well below earlier rates." And "we are now witnessing something close to a crash in microfinance institutions (MFIs) that lend to the poor and small businesses," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. How is it that the GDP is growing at breakneck speed and multi-millionaires are doubling every three years while millions need 'consumption vouchers' to buy essentials? Because, "India might be among the top five economies in the world in terms of its total GDP, but is also ranked 136 in terms of per capita income." The All India Financial Inclusion Survey (NAFIS) 2021-22, just released by NABARD shows that "the average monthly household income is Rs 12, 698 to Rs 13,661 for agricultural households and Rs 11,438 in non-agricultural households," wrote Dipa Sinha. "So, on average a rural person has an income of less than Rs 35,000 per annum while the per capita GDP of India for 2021-22 was almost five times (Rs 1,71,498)." With consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5.49% and food inflation at 9.24% (mospi.gov.in), a person earning Rs 35,000 a year will not afford even two meals a day, let alone three. We are at 136 in per capita income, but rural income must be near the lowest level in the world. No wonder, no one talks about it. Total silence.       

Handcuffed by Pelosi and Biden.

With Arizona being the last state to declare its result in the presidential election, "Donald Trump has completed a clean sweep of swing states, bringing his electoral college total to 312, compared to 226 for Vice President Kamala Harris, reports have stated." Trump also convincingly won the popular vote, getting 74.6 million votes nationwide, or 50.5%, while Harris received 70.9 million, or 48%. Mint. Most states are almost certain to vote for one or other of the parties but seven states are considered to be battleground, or swing, states. These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. CBS. In 2020, Biden won six of the seven states, by flipping five of them - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. CNN. All these states were won by Trump in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton. NYT. North Carolina voted Republican in all three elections, while Nevada voted Democrat in 2016 and 2020 but voted for Trump this time. In 2020, during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, Biden did not travel around the country meeting voters, preferring to stay holed up in his home in Wilmington, Delaware. US News. Covid-19 heavily influenced the voting with the Democrat-controlled media constantly focused on the people infected and the death count. USA Today. Fear of Covid naturally led many voters to vote by mail with a record number, in excess of 65.6 million, casting their votes by post. Former Denver elections director Amber Reynolds "analyzed all states in 2020 and found that 32 states 'are missing pieces of policy or best practices that ensure a secure mail ballot process such as a sufficient data integrity process, signature verification processes and/or signature deficiency cure process'." wikipedia. This led to a suspicion that the Democrats had stolen the election and a section of Republican supporters have become 'Election Deniers'. WP. The suspicion of the whole process is natural seeing most of the mainstream media is controlled by Democrat billionaires. In the 2024 election, Analysis of ABC, CBS and NBC by the Media Research Center (MRC)...found that Harris has received 78% positive coverage on broadcast evening news since July, versus Trump, who has been subject to 85% of negative coverage on the same networks." MRC found that these so-called news channels "spent more than 200 minutes of airtime, most of it negative, harping on controversies surrounding Trump while glossing over, or in many cases, outright ignoring controversies related to Harris." Fox. These should be classified as propaganda channels. "The Harris campaign raised more than $1 billion, ahead of Trump's haul, and fielded a larger voter operation in battleground states. Trump overcame these advantages by running less as a candidate and more like a leader of a movement." Trump won "by doubling down on the very things Democrats said made him unfit to return to the Oval Office," wrote Alex Leary & Tarini Parti. Former Democrat Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi has blamed Joe Biden for not dropping out of the race earlier. ET. But, Pelosi is largely responsible for Harris's defeat because she stubbornly blocked funding for a wall between the US and Mexico (ABC) which would have reduced the flood of illegal migrants entering the US, and which Trump repeatedly used in his campaign speeches. Poor Harris. Handcuffed by Pelosi and Biden. 

Living on debt.

"PWC's latest 'Pulse Survey' showed that 61% of executives polled expect to see the US economy fall into a recession over the next six months. What is worrying is that this figure is up from 49% in the June report." ET. "The US economy grew at a healthy 2.8% annual rate from July through September, with consumers helping drive growth despite the weight of still high interest rates." "Despite widespread predictions that the economy would succumb to a recession, it has kept growing, with employers still hiring and consumers still spending." ET. "US manufacturing activity slumped to a 15-month low and factories faced higher prices for inputs," as "PMI fell to 46.5% last month, the lowest level since July 2023." "A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.3% of the economy." Reuters. "For much of the past half-century, economic life in the heart of North Carolina has been dominated by factory closings, joblessness and downgraded expectations." "Yet over the last few years, an infusion of investment in cutting edge industries such as biotechnology, computer chips and electric vehicles has lifted fortunes of long-struggling communities." Nearly one-third of $736 billion in investment is "flowing into communities that experienced the worst effects of the so-called China Shock." ET. The so-called Magnificent Seven - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - have a combined market cap of over $16 trillion. Reuters. "The (US) Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point...as policymakers took note of a job market that has 'generally eased' while inflation continues to move towards the US central bank's 2% target." ET. Europe, on the other hand, is growing more slowly. "Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP expanded 0.9%, the best performance since Q1 2023, compared to a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter and higher than forecasts of 0.8%. The ECB expects the GDP in the Eurozone to expand 0.8% this year." Trading Economics. Worse maybe yet to come. "President-elect Donald Trump's proposed protectionist policies, including hefty tariffs, will hurt Europe's economic standing - leaving crisis-hit Germany particularly vulnerable, Goldman Sachs predicts. Following Trump's re-election, the investment bank cut its growth forecast for the region, predicting fresh trade tensions with the United States, pressure on Europe to increase defense spending and a hit to business confidence from higher geopolitical risk." CNN. In 1986, George Soros warned that the stock market rally in the US was diverting attention from ballooning debt. Now, "The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reckons that by 2035 President-elect Donald Trump's campaign plans will add up to $15.6 trillion to the US public debt." What is worse is that "The International Monetary Fund calculates that global public debt this year will breach $100 trillion, or 93% of world GDP, and predicts it will hit 100% by 2030." Reuters. Recession in the US may reduce imports. How will other countries manage their debts? Worrying. Very.     

Hoping it's a one-off.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in India has been trending down, reaching 3.5% in July and 3.7% in August (RI), which are within the government target of 4%, with a margin of 2% on either side, for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (ET). "Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Prime Index (CPI) for the month of September, 2024 is 5.49%." But, this was because Food Price Inflation was 9.24% (Provisional). mospi.gov.in.  However, in its October meeting, "Five of the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%,...RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said." Mint. Prices of food are dependent on supplies which cannot be increased by the RBI. So, why didn't the RBI reduce its policy rate, which would allow banks to reduce the rate at which they lend, thus encouraging businesses and people to spend more by borrowing, which would boost profits and share prices? asked Vivek Kaul. Because sustained high prices of food would result in demands for higher wages and thus cause higher inflation generally. A negative real interest rate, which is "an interest rate adjusted to remove the effects of inflation" (Investopedia) during Covid has forced people to divert their savings to stock markets in search of higher returns. Long term bank savings have fallen which is restricting banks long-term lending such as for highly profitable housing loans. By sticking to its policy rate the RBI hopes to retain more money in long-term savings in banks by stemming the flow of investments into markets. Also, Governor Das completes his second term in December (wikipedia) and will not have to answer to the Finance Minister after he retires. A few days ago, Das said that "the economic activity in India remains strong, with the agricultural and services sectors doing well, brushing aside the chatter that the Indian economy is slowing." "The RBI, last month, retained its growth forecast for the current financial year at 7.2%." ET. The retirement party should be a jolly affair. "GDP is growing at 6.7%" but "Income growth has been anemic: casual and regular workers in 2023 earned a monthly wage 1% lower than in previous year, per and International Labor Organization report based on government data." Hindustan Unilever's net profit fell 2% in the September quarter, Reliance Retail's revenue dropped by 1% and Shoppers Stop "logged its second straight quarter in the red." "Nearly half of the top 100 listed firms that have reported earnings for the September quarter missed estimates by more then 4%, the highest since March 2020, according to Venugopal Garre and his colleagues at Bernstein." They are "hoping the slowdown is a one-off anomaly." Reuters. Hence, "Six years after India's shadow banking sector blew up, pockets of stress are building again, prompting firms to start pulling back amid scrutiny from the regulator." "These firms are grappling with an increase in bad loans, margin compression and intense competition for deposits, according to bankers and analysts." ET. Still predicting 7.2% growth. Were the fingers crossed? Maybe the toes.   

To do, or not to do, that is the question.

"The 2023 World Air Quality report by IQAir, a global air quality monitoring platform, found Delhi to be the polluted city on the planet with an annual PM 2.5 reading of 92.7 micrograms/cubic meter." PM 2.5 stands for 'particulate matter' with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller. "These particles come in many sizes and shapes and can be made up of hundreds of different chemicals." Fine particles like PM 2.5 can get into our lungs, and even blood stream, and are the greatest danger to human health. epa.gov. Delhi traps pollution because it is surrounded by hills and mountains, the so-called 'valley effect'. About 35% of pollution comes from surrounding towns and cities, and 13% from the transport sector. In winter 32% of PM 2.5 comes from household cooking and heating using biomass, wrote Sayantan Bera. Efforts at reducing pollution should be extremely beneficial for everyone. Not so simple. "The 10 New Insights in Climate Science report of 2024-25 has highlighted that while air-particulate-matter reduction has significant public health benefits, it also reduces the net cooling effect that it exerts on the climate." Reducing air pollution will increase the effects of global warming. "So, as of today, we seem to be on track towards a 3 degree Celsius average-rise-in-global temperature world, which would be a disaster for the planet," wrote Leena Srivastava. "Since 1990, India has lost around 420 million hectares of forest land, which is alarming as this trend is supposed to continue due to the rising demands of the growing population and economic growth." "As per the climate transparency report, heat related incidents caused a 191 billion labor loss hours in 2022." Heat waves cost 252 lives in 2023 and, "India has suffered a loss of $159 billion, of 5.4% of GDP." ET. It's not just air pollution or chopping down our forests, "In a recent study, India has emerged as the world's top plastic polluter, releasing 9.3 million tonnes (Mt) of plastic annually. It now constitutes one-fifth of global plastic emissions, the study revealed in nature." TOI. "Climate change due to rising temperature and changing pattern of monsoon rainfall in India could cost the Indian economy 2.8% of its GDP and depress the living standards of nearly half of its population by 2050, RBI's Department of Economic and Policy Research (DEPR) says." "India may account for 34 million of the projected 80 million global job losses caused by heat-related stress." Forbes. That would be an absolute disaster. "Asia's fastest-growing economies are hiding a dirty secret: Their youngest workers are battling stubbornly high rates of unemployment." "Though India's youth unemployment has come down in recent years, it remains above the global average." Mint. In short, pollution is killing people, but reducing particulate matter will increase the heat effect of climate change, causing loss in GDP growth, which will increase unemployment, causing poverty and possible social disorder. Seems like a case of damned if you do and damned if you don't. No wonder politicians seem frozen. All over the world. 

Make the citizens rich.

"Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in October, in gross terms, were Rs 1.87 trillion, an 8.9% increase from the previous year, according to data from the finance ministry." "In April 2024, GST collections reached a record high of Rs 2.10 trillion. The total gross GST for the fiscal year 2023-24 was Rs 20.18 trillion, an increase of 11.7% from the previous fiscal year." ET. "India's manufacturing growth gained momentum in October after decelerating for three months as demand improved significantly, helping in job creation and leading to better business outlook, according to a business survey." The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 57.5 in October from an eight-month low of 56.5 in September." ET. "E-commerce platforms recorded total sales of nearly Rs 1 trillion (about $11.9) during the month-long festive season that ended last week," as "Demand from non-metro consumers, and increased purchases of luxury brands boosted transactions." The highest demand was for smartphones. ET. "A rise in defaults by over-leveraged small borrowers is hitting India's top lenders, with bank executives and analysts expecting higher levels of stress in personal loans and micro-credit segments over the last year." Bad loans had dropped to a low of 2.8% of all assets as of end-March, according to the RBI. "In the September quarter, however, five of the eight largest private sector banks have reported an increase in bad loans." "Most banks have also increased provisions, or funds set aside to cover bad loans, in anticipation of a rise in defaults." Reuters. Also, "Rising delinquencies in credit card receivables have made banks wary of ramping up subscriber additions in the festive season. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that the pace of new card additions slowed to 620,000 from 920,000 in August," and "New card issuances have fallen by more than 64% from the year earlier." The delinquencies in private loans and credit cards may be because private spending was being financed by borrowing. "Private consumption, historically the backbone of India's GDP, shows troubling signs of deceleration,dropping from 58.1% of GDP in FY22 to 55.8% in FY24." "As we are in the Diwali season - a time traditionally characterised by increased consumer spending - there are signs of a lull." Even "the FMCG sector, generally resilient even in slowdowns, reports a shift toward essential items as inflation dampens demand." DH. How is the GST collection rising when consumption is falling and defaults are rising? A very large reason must be an uncontrolled rise in prices along with a rise in sales of high value goods and services. "The US-based Pew Research Center projected the pre-Covid strength of the Indian middle-class - defined as those earning between USD 10_USD 20 or Rs 25,000 - Rs 50,000 a month - at about 99 million." TNIE. That is a very small number defined by paltry earnings. Squeezing them relentlessly will only make them poorer. Only rich citizens make a rich nations.         

Trying to export people, not milk.

"Going purely by decibels on TV screens and social media, it would seem India's in a constant state of geopolitical siege." Our economy is no match for China. "It's at 20% of China's GDP. As a market, China offers 5-10 times the size of India across products and services." "India's current manufacturing architecture - in labor and infra - is struggling to match up to Vietnam and is not always the default alternative to any China+1 initiative." "The only foreign policy that means anything is fast economic growth. Rest will fall into place," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. We need trade for the economy to grow. "India's approach to free trade can appear contradictory. Officials insist they are serious about  closing new deals with the UK and the European Union and improving older ones with countries such as Australia." "Indian officials still tend to think of trade as a zero-sum game, with tariffs as the only real levers." "Global counterparts often wonder at how India can produce new 'red lines' out of nowhere, aimed at protecting one sector after another," wrote Mihir Sharma. "India has bilateral trade agreements with 14 countries or economic blocs, four of the most substantial ones of these have gone back to the drawing board, for review or fine tuning." "Even the relatively recent with the UAE is undergoing review at the instance of India," because "there has been a sharp rise in imports of gold, silver and jewellery from Dubai, impacting government revenues and domestic industry." FE. "There will be no free trade agreement with the European Union if the bloc insists on India opening up its dairy sector, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said." ET. "With 25% of global milk production, India is the world's largest producer." "India exported 63,738.47 MT of dairy products in 2023-224, valued at $272.64 million." And the top export destinations are "the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the US, Singapore and Bhutan." Export Import Data. If the EU reciprocates by opening its own dairy market equally we could double our milk exports. "Former UK minister Kemi Badenoch,..has said that she blocked the India-UK free trade agreement (FTA) due to demands for additional visas, according to UK media reports." TOI. Ever since 2014, when Mr Modi became Prime Minister, "New Delhi has chased the dream of a prosperous manufacturing sector. Yet to a stunning degree, these efforts have failed." "In 2012-13, exports approached 20% of sales. Last year, they dipped below 7%, and the proportion will likely be even lower this year." ET. Yet, 2000 years ago, Berenike on the shore of the Red Sea was "the landing point for generations of Indian merchants traveling to the Roman Empire." "It was India, not China, that was the greatest trading partner of the Roman Empire." Dawn. But then, there was no central government at the time trying to export people to the UK and not milk to the EU. Doesn't make sense. Does it.   

Slow drip of revelation.

In October, "Canada expelled six Indian diplomats including the high commissioner,..linking them to the murder of a Sikh separatist and alleging a broader effort to target Indian dissidents in Canada." Reuters. Hardly had the six left when Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said the remaining diplomats "are clearly on notice." "Clearly, we won't tolerate any diplomats that are in contravention of the Vienna Convention," she said. Ministry of External Affairs of India spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that "some of our consular officials were recently informed by the Canadian government that they have been and continued to be under audio and video surveillance. Their communications have also been intercepted." HT. Then, "India has been described as an adversary for the first time in an official Canadian government document." "In its section on cyber threat from 'state adversaries', it includes China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and India." HT. Fanning flames further, "The Canadian government alleged...that Indian Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was behind the plots to target Sikh separatists on Canadian soil." Reuters. "Amit Shah - often called India's 'second most powerful man' - is a formidable old friend, Mr Modi's closest confidant and the brains behind his election juggernaut." BBC. This drip, drip of provocation is like 'death by a thousand cuts' (wikipedia). And, if Mr Shah is involved, can Mr Modi be far behind? In response, the Indian government "summoned the country's diplomat to strongly protest the 'absurd and baseless' references made by their Minister before a parliamentary panel. New Delhi warned Ottawa that the leakage of 'unfounded insinuations' to discredit India will have serious consequences for the bilateral relationship." and "reiterated that Canada hasn't provided any evidence to back its claims." TOI. According to Nathalie Drouin, Canada's national security and intelligence adviser, India canceled the first meeting on grounds of "administrative technicality" and then on 10 October, Canadian police officers waited in Washington DC, "while the Indian officials who had confirmed their participation, did not show up." Finally, "Drouin, Deputy Foreign Minister Morrison and the Deputy Commissioner of RCMP - traveled to Singapore to meet India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to apprise him of the evidence gathered." DH. From this it seems that Canada has made every effort to present its side of the case to India but India just keeps on repeating that no evidence has been provided. "Every year 150,000 students from Punjab go to Canada, Australia, the UK and other countries. Of them nearly, 70% go to Canada." TNIE. These are actually migrants, going in the guise of students, with no intention of ever returning to India. With relations almost severed with Canada, and Australia and the UK cutting down, all these young people will be stuck in Punjab with no jobs and no future to aspire to. It's a dangerous cocktail. And, Pakistan is just across the border. Canada has nothing to lose. Do we?        

Godi or bed - it's not journalism.

"Coverage on ABC, CBS and NBC News of the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been the most 'lopsided in history', a new study released one week before the election found. Analysis from the Media Research Center (MRC)...found that Harris has received 78% positive coverage on broadcast evening news since July, versus Trump, who has been subject to 85% negative coverage on the same networks." No wonder only 31% of people trust the US media. Fox. In India, we have a "godi media" which means the media 'sitting on lap' or 'lapdog' media, for its craven support of the present government. This moniker was coined by veteran journalist Ravish Kumar. wikipedia. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has been the sole power in a Unipolar world. Yale. So, it is only natural that the US invented the "embedded media" (Britannica), when it forced journalists to bed with soldiers during its criminal invasion of Iraq in 2002 based on outrageous lies about the presence of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) (Britannica). This shameless hugging of journalists was meant to conceal war crimes such as the use of white phosphorus in the capture of Fallujah. wikipedia. The US arrogantly lectures the world on its First Amendment which "protects freedom of speech, the press, assembly, and the right to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." The White House. The truth is that all its news media companies are controlled by billionaires (Investopedia) which means that their coverage of current affairs are biased by the interests of their owners. "For the first time in decades, The Washington Post will not endorse a candidate in this year's election." "The Post reported the decision not to endorse was made by the newspaper's billionaire owner, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, citing two sources briefed on the matter." "The Post's editorial page staffers had drafted an endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris and it was ready to be approved by its board." CNN. In an op-ed, "Jeff Bezos described the move as a principled decision which eventually reflects the commitment of the newspaper towards independence," and "emphasized on the need for media credibility acknowledging the fact that public trust in journalism has declined." ET. Why should the Post endorse a candidate if it is a newspaper? Does it not become a representative of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) (wikipedia) by doing so? Eugene Mayer, who bought the Post in 1933, laid down seven principles. "The first mission of a newspaper is to tell the truth as nearly as the truth may be ascertained," and "The newspaper shall not be an ally of any special interest." The Washington Post. While journalists have the right to vote for the candidate of their choice, by endorsing Harris the Post would have become a representative of the DNC. Embedded, as it were. Godi or bed, it is not journalism. 

Are they suckers?

Diwali is the first day of the business new year and, even though it is a public holiday, it is considered auspicious to trade on the markets on that day. This is called 'muhurat (an auspicious time) trading' (rekhta dictionary). Both the indices finished higher. "The S&P BSE Sensex was up 335.06 to 79,724.12, while the NSE Nifty50 settled 94.20 points higher at 24,299.55." Auto, realty and power sectors were up 1% each. India Today. When markets climb to record levels some people make enormous gains. "Through this October, Dalal Street presented a sharp study in contrasts - lofty records," as "foreign investors pulled Rs 1 trillion out of Indian equities in October, beating the record in the Covid-ravaged March of 2020 with consummate ease." But this was more than matched by domestic funds (DII) investing a record amount. ET. "Repatriation of dividend income, profits and reinvested earnings by overseas portfolio investors, private equity firms and companies operating locally totalled $12.2 billion in the April-June quarter, more than double what they did five years ago," and "Total investment income outflows have almost doubled to $21.6 billion from $11 billion in April-June of 2019." ET. Foreign investors were also helped by a relatively stronger rupee by getting more dollars in exchange. "The RBI's relentless intervention has helped the rupee. The central bank has sold dollars on almost all days in the last two weeks, not allowing the rupee to fall and dampening volatility." Even as foreign investors net sold $11 billion of Indian equities in October. ET. Despite the downturn in October, the Indian frontline indices concluded Samvat 2080 with over 25% gains." Samvat is a Hindu lunisolar calendar. wikipedia. "Amid strong interest from retail investors, 336 companies have made their stock market debuts in Samvat 2080, with 248, or 74%, coming from the SME (small and medium enterprises) segment, according to Trndlyne data. Nearly 100 of these IPOs have launched with listing gains exceeding 50%, while 132 saw subscription rates surpassing 100%," and "163 IPOs are currently trading above their issue prices." Mint. Also, "With the capital markets at historic highs, startup IPOs are seen as exciting new opportunities in companies that could represent a new way of doing business." But, "IPO over-subscription of 100 times to 200 times should not be taken as a ringing endorsement of the company's fundamentals." Because, "As an investor, it can be hard to avoid the fear of missing out," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "Historically, IPOs have typically been seen as a way for companies to sell the public new shares in order to raise money to finance new investments and expand their business." But now, IPOs are an avenue to provide a profitable exit to venture capitalists and private equity investors, wrote Vivek Kaul. Foreign investors, venture capitalists and promoters are certainly making huge profits. But, what about retail investors? Are they confirming that "There's a sucker born every minute?" (wikipedia).         

Catch the seven first.

"They're Wall Street's big guns." The shares of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla have risen so high that it has "prompted a Bank of America analyst to dub them 'The Magnificent Seven', a nod to a 1960 Western about a gang of gunslingers led by Steve McQueen, Yul Brynner and Charles Bronson." Reuters. On 30 October, "Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, reported stellar third-quarter earnings but also drove the combined market cap of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants to an unprecedented $16.8 trillion." Benzinga. To put it in perspective, that is more than five times India's nominal GDP at $3.4 trillion (worldometer). "The slowdown in consumer demand reported by a number of consumer goods companies has been dubbed the 'shrinkage of India's middle class' by Nestle management." Companies have earned "abnormally high profits" by targeting the premium segment. That is because real household income has fallen along with savings, due to "the acute K-shaped post-pandemic recovery is characterised by a thin upper arm and a thick lower arm; a feature officials have denied," wrote Dhananjay Sinha. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his 'Make in India' initiative in 2014 with the aim of increasing the growth rate of the manufacturing sector to 12-14% per annum, creating 100 million additional manufacturing jobs and increasing the share of manufacturing to 25% of GDP. wikipedia. However, the growth rate of manufacturing has averaged around 4%, share of manufacturing in GDP has fallen from 18.3% to 14.72% of India's gross value added (GVA) and "Between 2016-17 and 2022-23, the manufacturing sector has lost almost 1 million workers," wrote Prof Christophe Jaffrelot. Make in India has been a barrier to exports. "In 2012-13, exports approached 20% of sales. Last year they dipped below 7%," and "If not for the growth in mobile phone exports, the number would have been even more dire." Because, "New Delhi's priority has been to cut down on imports, not to grow exports, and companies have noticed." "If a government can be lobbied to erect protectionist barriers, that's always the least-cost path to outsize profits for any domestic producer," wrote Mihir Sharma. With tariffs restricting imports, Indian companies are able to sell substandard goods and services to hapless citizens. But you can't sell them abroad. So, "While India has bilateral trade agreements with 14 countries or economic blocs, four of the most substantial ones have gone back to the drawing board, for review or fine-tuning. Even the recent pact with the UAE is undergoing a review at the instance of India, reflecting lack of enough detailing before at least some of these agreements were finalized." FE. "India may take nearly 75 years just to achieve one-fourth of US income per capita, as per a recent World Bank report." TOI. But first, we have to catch the 'Magnificent Seven'. Does not look likely. Does it?      

Gang of friends.

On 29 October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revealed "it had shipped 102 tonnes of gold from the Bank of England's vaults in London to secure locations in India." "Since September 2022, RBI has quietly brought back 214 tonnes of gold, driven by the need to safeguard holdings amid growing geopolitical uncertainties." Of the 855 tonnes of gold reserves, 510.5 tonnes are now stored in India. ET. At least, this will save a lot of foreign exchange. It costs 50 pounds per year to store 1 kg gold bar in London. Gold Investments. The US has a habit of imposing sanctions on nations, which is supported by its friends. "Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US, UK and EU, along with countries including Australia, Canada and Japan, have imposed 16,500 sanctions on Russia." "Foreign currency reserves worth $350bn - about half its total reserves - were frozen." BBC. Russia is not the only nation to have its funds plundered by this gang of rapacious countries. Iran has lost $100 to $120 billion worth of assets (wikipedia) and land-locked Afghanistan (google.co.in) has lost a total of at least $9 billion (wikipedia). The BRICS nations discussed a parallel system, called BRICS Pay, to bypass the dollar and the SWIFT cross-border payment system, at their summit at Kazan in Russia during 22-24 October. wikipedia. Russian President Vladimir Putin calls it the "BRICS Bridge", and "Controversially, it may borrow concepts from a different project called mBridge, part-run by a bastion of the Western-led order, the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS)." The Economist. "Project mBridge continues its development and has reached a minimum viable product (MVP) stage, while broadening its international reach. The project aims to explore a multi-central bank digital currency (CBDC) platform shared among participating central banks and commercial banks." BIS. In July 2023, "The RBI has permitted 20 banks operating in the country to open 92 Special Rupee Vostro Accounts (SVRAs) of partner banks from 22 countries as part of efforts to promote bilateral trade in local currencies, the government said." ET. We don't know how successful it has been. Probably, not at all. Because, "If the underlying flows of capital and trade between two countries are unbalanced, which they usually are, they will have to accumulate assets or liabilities in each other's currencies, which may be unappealing." The other problem is that the economies of BRICS nations are small, except for China with a nominal GDP of $18 trillion (worldometer), whereas the nominal GDP of the US was $27 trillion in 2023 (World Bank) and that of the Euro area was $15.5 trillion in 2023 (World Bank), giving a combined GDP power of about $43 trillion. If the US and the Euro countries, along with the other members of the gang of plundering nations, refuse to trade with BRICS Pay, it will soon collapse. However, India has no quarrel with the US. "India is a strategic partner with whom it engages in a full and frank dialogue the United States said" in July 2024. NDTV. So why are we so anxious to find an alternative to the US dollar? Last month, Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said "everything is on the table", hinting "at the possibility of imposing sanctions against India following a diplomatic fallout over the killing of pro-Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar." Surely, we are not scared of Canada with a nominal GDP of just $2.2 trillion (worldometer) and a defence force consisting of just 68,000 active personnel (wikipedia)? Canada has friends. Can India count on China? Happy Diwali to everyone in the world.      

Demand for premium.

"The United States (US), France and Armenia have emerged as the top three destinations for Indian defence exports, with Armenia in particular being the biggest client of 'finished' Indian weapons and equipment like 155mm artillery guns and the Akash air defence missile and Pinaka multi-launch rocket systems, The Times of India reported." India's defence exports were worth Rs 210.83 billion ($2.63 billion) in 2-23-24. BS. Armenia was routed by Azerbaijan in a short war in September 2023, ceding control of Nagorno-Karabakh in a matter of days. wikipedia. Azerbaijan obtained a lot of its weapons from Turkey. Reuters. India's merchandise exports rose slightly to $34.58 billion in September from $34.41 billion a year ago. However, exports have been declining every month from $38.13 billion in May. Trade deficit was lower at $20.78 billion. Mint. India is largely dependent on China. "India's exports to China in 2023-24 stood at USD 16.65 billion, while imports aggregated at USD 101.75 billion, leaving a trade deficit of over USD 85 billion." ET. "Formal job creation under the Employees' State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) went up by 6.8% in August to 2.07 million compared to 1.94 million in August 2023." ET. "India's formal job market witnessed a decline in August with all three social security schemes recording a fall in new subscribers, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed." ET. More jobs, or less? Never mind. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "has stuck to its forecast that India's economy will expand 7.2% in the year ending March 2025 despite recent evidence showing activity is starting to taper off. The RBI's outlook is far more optimistic than the 6.5%-7% growth projected by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government." HT. "In the 1950s, manufacturing was about 10% of India's economy. Since 2010, it has averaged about 17.7%." "The share of manufacturing has never reached even 20%." "The key reason is this: As incomes rise, our consumption patterns tend to shift towards services." "As demand for services increases, the local production of services must also rise, since these cannot be imported, unlike manufactured goods," wrote Prof Vidya Mahambare. "India's attempts at boosting its manufacturing sector by capitalizing on the US-China trade war have fallen short, according to a new study." "Between 2017 and 2023, India's total share in US imports rose by 0.6 percentage points to 2.7%," while Vietnam's share rose by 1.7 points to 3.7%. Taiwan increased its share by 1% and South Korea by 0.7%. ET. Quarterly earnings calls of several consumer goods companies "indicated short-term pressure on sales of essentials and mass-priced products in India, even as demand remained strong for premium and discretionary products." ET. Passenger cars in the premium category have a waiting period of up to 96 weeks, while in the volume segment some models are attracting discounts of up to Rs 450.000." ET. Mr Modi wants Indians to buy local this festival season. MC. But, it's all Chinese. Missiles are local. Are they available?

Trudeau not important.

"At a time when he has launched hostilities against India, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau is facing trouble in his own backyard, with 24 MPs of his Liberal Party rebelling against him and asking him to step down by October 28 or face consequences." TOI. Attacks on Trudeau and Canada have been relentless in the Indian media. So much so that "The Canadian government is closely monitoring social media activities of Indian journalists and media in connection with alleged foreign interference." "The report highlights that narratives posted by 'godi media' described Trudeau and Canadian institutions as 'enablers or terrorism' and accused them of 'falling into the laps of Khalistani extremists." ET. 'Godi media' was coined by veteran Indian journalist Ravish Kumar, meaning 'media sitting on lap' or 'lapdog media'. wikipedia. Attacks on Trudeau are nothing new. In 2018, when Trudeau visited India with his wife and children, they were not received at the airport by Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor by any member of his cabinet, but by a minister of state. ET. No man will forget being insulted in front of his family. Apparently, during his trip someone invited Jaspal Atwal, who was convicted of attempted murder in Canada in 1987, for dinner. But, Atwal was already in India. Why was he not arrested if he was deemed a terrorist? Trudeau was again treated badly during his visit to Delhi in 2023 for the G20 summit. India Today. Questions: 1. What is being achieved by abusing Trudeau and, 2. Will the person replacing Trudeau agree to extradite anyone that India demands? US prosecutors have named former Indian intelligence officer Vikash Yadav of being behind a failed plot to assassinate US citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. "According to a US indictment, which has not been made public yet, investigators claimed to have uncovered direct links between the accused in the Pannun case and Nijjar murder." India Today. Canada blames Indian agents for the murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia on 18 June 2023. wikipedia. That is the reason for the attacks on Trudeau. Last month, "Canada offered New Delhi de-escalation options as well as evidence of the involvement of Indian officials in violence targeting pro-Khalistan elements in the country, according to media reports." HT. Is that a victory for India? Now that Canada has provided evidence it will get more support from its friends. "Canada's partners in the Five Eyes Intelligence alliance - the US, the UK and Australia - have backed Ottawa's investigation...and called on New Delhi to cooperate in the probe," HT. Trudeau does not have to face a general election till October 2025 (wikipedia) so he can continue to demand his pound of flesh. The government can ignore Trudeau but it is likely to have a devastating effect on Indian youth seeking to migrate to Canada as students. "As per various study abroad platforms, there's expected to be a 40-60% drop in the number of Indian students opting for Canada for studies over the next 12-15 months." FE. Sikhs prefer Canada because of the support from the sizable Sikh community there and "Factors like improved job opportunities and better prospects for employment." ET. Sikh youth stuck in India in poverty and without job prospects could become angry. Better to keep Khalistanis far away in Canada than breed them here. Trudeau may not be important but Canada has friends. Diplomacy is influencing others through "dialogue, negotiation and other measures, short of war or violence". Britannica. Violence didn't work. Try diplomacy.

Better to be students than donkeys.

 "There is another new disease among children - that of going abroad. The child enthusiastically wants to go abroad, sees a new dream, but there is no assessment of which institution or country he is going to," said Vice President Jagdeep Dhankar. Why do 78% of wealthy Indian parents risk their retirement savings to help their children go abroad? ABP. "We run nine schools, with a total of about 2,700 students. About 20% of our students do not achieve foundational literacy and numeracy (FLN) by grade 3, and 6% not even by grade 5. Earlier, 40% of our students were not achieving FLN by grade 3, we had to work hard to bring it down to 20%, and we seem to be stuck there," wrote CEO of Azim Premji Foundation Anurag Behar. And yet, "Simply put, our schools are better resourced and supported than most schools in India, other than the elite ones that make up 1-2% of the total." Even in the elite schools students are being sabotaged by 'grade inflation'. "Simply put, grade inflation involves awarding higher grades than students really deserve through artificially heightened schemes." After schools had been closed for two years due to Covid, and "despite the evident learning gaps," "CBSE classes 10 and 12 boards in 2021 showed a pass percentage of 99.04% and 99.37% respectively, and those scoring above 95% jumped to 38% in class 10 and 81% in class 12," wrote John J Kennedy. "Grade inflation in India is a consequence of competition between Boards." "Colleges select students based on their marks in Board exams" and Boards compete in awarding higher marks to their students to give them a chance of getting a seat in college, wrote Sridhar Rajagopalan. According to the Economic Survey of 2023-24 "51.25% of India's graduates are deemed employable." According to the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS), "youth unemployment (15 to 29 years) has declined from 17.8% in 2017-18 to 10% in 2022-23," while according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), "the unemployment rate for youth aged 20-24 soared to an alarming 44.49% in early 2024," and 29.1% of graduates are unemployed compared to 3.4% for those without formal education, according to the International Labor Organization and Institute for Human Development. India Today. Even the coveted IITs are not immune. IIT Bombay "has managed to place just 75% of its students through the campus recruitment process this year." The lowest package fell from Rs 600,000 to Rs 400,000, wrote SS Mantha & Ashok Thakur. Mr Dhankar cannot understand that children rushing abroad without "assessment of which institute or country" is an investment for the future. The vast majority pray they do not have to return to India and will do anything to stay abroad. That's why thousands of Indian students queued outside Tandoori Flame restaurant in Canada to work as waiters or service staff. HT. Those who cannot pretend to be students, pay $30,000-$50,000 to people smugglers and risk their lives across dangerous routes to get to a foreign country. In 2022-23, 96,917 entered the US illegally, up from 8,027 in 2018-19. CNN. They are called 'donkeys' (wikipedia). Politicians have access to taxpayer money. That's why they don't understand.  

A matter of zeros.

"There has been a cumulative 74.2% decline in income disparity coverage for those earning up to Rs 500,000 annually between fiscal years 2013-14 and 2022-23 said a State Bank of India (SBI) report." "A comparison of disparity in income during AY15 (FY14)  and AY24 (FY23) shows that there is a clear rightward shift in the income distribution curve, signifying people in lower income brackets are increasing their income to converge towards their share in population, it said." ET. 2014 was when Mr Narendra Modi first came to power as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a majority in the Lok Sabha with 282 seats out of a total of 543 seats. wikipedia. And, SBI is a public sector bank under government control. wikipedia. Inequality in a nation is measured by the Gini coefficient. "The coefficient of the Gini index ranges from  0 (or 0%) to 1 (or 100%), with 0 representing perfect equality and 1 representing perfect inequality." Investopedia. "Nationally the value of this index was 0.30 in 1993-94, 0.35 in 2004-05, 0.36 in 2011-12. While hundreds of millions experienced the joy of exiting extreme poverty during those years, hardly any of them were even aware that inequality had risen at the same time," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. A villager in India "hardly cares if Mukesh Ambani adds another five billion to his wealth in a given year. But if her neighbor's wealth rises sharply while she struggles, she has sleepless nights." Prof Panagariya carefully stops at 2012, well before this government grabbed power. In January 2024, "SBI Research has calculated that Gini coefficient has declined from 0.472 during Assessment Year 2024-15 to 0.402 for AY 2022-23. pib.gov.in. So, inequality has become much worse during this government's tenure. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) report released recently shows that, "56% of Indians reported eating three meals a day while 43% just had two." HT. Starting 1 January 2024, the central government is to provide free food grains to 813.5 million for five years. pib.gov.in. With the total population of India at 1,455 million (worldometer), this means that 55.9% of our population need free food grains to survive. The Hurun India Rich List 2024 revealed that India has added one (dollar) billionaire every five days throughout 2023 and the total number of (dollar) billionaires has reached 334, six times more than 13 years ago. BS. One billion is 1 followed by nine zeros - 1,000,000,000. Byju's. In the Indian system 1 billion means 100 crores. Byju's. Only a minuscule number of villagers in India will be able to comprehend what one crore rupees means, let alone 100 crore dollars, but even a totally illiterate villager is acutely aware of the difference in living standards between her social level and the rich. Inequality is worse any way you slice it. The poor realise it. No matter what SBI calculates.

Bias on safety.

"CareEdge has assigned a long-term foreign currency rating of BBB+ to India, two notches higher than what's provided by other global rating agencies," wrote Rajani Sinha. S&P assigned a rating of BBB- with a positive outlook while Moody's rates India at Baa3 with a stable outlook. Trading Economics. Fitch retained its BBB- rating on 29 August with a stable outlook. BT. All the agencies rate India at the lowest investment grade, just above junk. India is a large economy with a GDP at current prices (nominal) at $3.55 trillion in 2023 (World Bank) and is expected to grow at 7% in the fiscal year 2025 and at 6.5% in FY26, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The RBI projects a growth rate of 7.2% in FY25. BT. "Investment as a proportion of GDP" "is relatively high at about 33%, compared with 20-29% for similarly-rated peers." However, per capita income is low at $7,600 on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) compared to $18,218 for Thailand, $12,945 for Indonesia and $9,274 for the Philippines. Government debt of the Centre and states is high at 80% of GDP which means that interest on debt gobbles up 25% of revenue. India's foreign exchange reserves are high at number four in the world. wikipedia. Although, "India's foreign exchange reserves saw a decline for the third consecutive week, dipping by $2.16 billion to $688.26 billion as of 18 October, according to the RBI." ET. Government officials and politicians are unhappy with foreign rating agencies. "There are serious issues with the biased methodologies used by global rating agencies. One major issue is that around 20% of the weightage in the sovereign rating is driven by subjective indicators of governance, political stability and so on," said Sanjeev Sanyal, member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council. Forbes. These concerns may be trivial for our rulers but they govern how citizens look at future prospects and their spending habits. "India's economic pulse has slowed just as the festive season approaches." "Manufacturing has dropped, GST collections have lost steam and domestic car sales continue to skid." India Today. The Reserve Bank of India's consumer confidence survey in September 2024 showed "Current Situation Index (CSI) improved by 0.8 points to 94.7 though it remained below the threshold level of 100." "Household's median perception of current inflation index declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 8.1%." The Hindu. Inflation expectations for 3 months ahead has reduced 20 bps, from 9.4% to 9.2%, and for 1 year ahead has fallen 10 bps, from 10.1% to 10%." IIFL Securities. The household perception of current inflation was 8.1% during the RBI survey in August when the actual consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate was 3.65%. It rose to 5.49%, the highest since December 2023. Mint. The RBI projected the average inflation rate at 4.5% for fiscal 2024-25.ET. India's gold imports tripled to 140 tons in August as the government lowered the customs duty to 6% from 15%. Gold imports in 2024 could range between 750 and 850 tons, said Sachin Jain, regional CEO for India at the World Gold Council. Gold is seen as an excellent hedge against inflation and negative real interest rates. Loyalty and patriotism may earn brownie points  (dictionary.com) with our rulers for CareEdge, but if Indians are investing in gold, why should foreigners invest in India? Foreign agencies ensure they get their money back. Like we do.

Lying flat in garbage time.

"India and China have agreed on patrolling arrangements to de-escalate tensions along a disputed Himalayan border which has seen deadly hand-to-hand clashes in recent years, India's top diplomat has said." "Mr Misri, however, did not give any details about the disengagement process and whether it would cover all points of conflict along the disputed border." BBC. In June 2020, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a sudden attack by Chinese barbarians armed with clubs with nails and other weapons at the border at Galwan Valley in Ladakh. BBC. "Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi met with Mr Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China, on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS summit at Kazan (Russia) on 23 October 2024." mea.gov.in. Why the thaw? It's not as if the Chinese have suddenly become civilized and given up on their delusional desire of conquering the whole world. "The big question is whether Xi needs support from Modi to initiate measures that would weaken the US-led economic sanctions regime on China." "In his BRICS speech Modi made it clear that he was in favor of an alternative payments system covering countries in the grouping. That must have sounded like music to Xi's ears." ET. It would be suicidal for India to accept the Chinese yuan for trading, to reduce dependence on the US dollar. To keep his people subdued Xi has to revive the economy and create jobs. "China's sputtering economy has prompted a dire, new shorthand online for pessimism about the prospects for any turnaround for jobs, incomes and opportunity: 'the garbage time of history'." "It follows another buzzword China's censors have targeted as a threat to stability since it broke into the mainstream three years ago: 'lying flat,' a call to a slacker life of limited ambition and quiet protest." Reuters. While Mr Modi and Xi are keen to find an alternative to the dollar, Chinese citizens are finding ways to convert their savings to the dollar. "Chinese residents have been illicitly moving billions of dollars out of the country," even though "The country imposes strict capital controls that caps individual purchases of foreign exchange at $50,000 a year." In the 12 months through June 2017 around $228 billion leaked out illicitly. $370 billion leaked out in the 12 months through September 2022 and more than $200 billion in the four quarters through June 2024. Mint. Even presumed friends are unable to tolerate Chinese presence. Last week, "China's consulate in Myanmar's Mandalay city was attacked with an explosive device, local media said." ET. While no one was injured or killed in that attack, on 7 October, "Two Chinese nationals have been killed and at least 10 people injured in a suspected suicide attack near Karachi airport in Pakistan." BBC. China wants help to break the shackles. We must make every effort to reduce our dependence on imports from China (ET) before trying to find an alternative to the dollar. Tighten the noose. Verily. 

Penalized for right policies.

"Andhra Pradesh CM N Chandrababu Naidu called on people in southern states to have more children, citing concerns about an ageing population." ET. "The state government is thinking of bringing a law that would make only those with more than two children eligible to contest local body elections," he said. "Govt may provide more benefits to families with more children." "Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has encouraged the state's residents to consider having more children following a similar suggestion by Mr Naidu." ET. Quoting an old Tamil saying which suggests "people should have 16 different types of wealth", he asked, "Why shouldn't we aim for 16 children?" "In 1971, the country's total fertility rate (TFR) was at 5.2. That is on average, 100 women had 520 children during their child-bearing years. By 1991 this had come down to 3.6." "Between March 1991 and March 2011, the country grew at 6.2% per year. In the two decades before March 1991, the country had grown at 4.3%," wrote Vivek Kaul. "TFR has fallen significantly below the threshold of 2.1 - considered the replacement level value at which the population maintains itself - in states such as Tamil Nadu (1.76), Andhra Pradesh ((1.68) and Kerala (1.79), but is still much higher in states such as Bihar (2.98) and Uttar Pradesh (2.35), according to the National Family and Health Survey (NHFS)." "TFR, both across countries and Indian states, has a strong correlation with per capita incomes, and falls with rising incomes," wrote Roshan Kishore & Abhishek Jha. Lower fertility rate creates wealth. However, it may not be just an ageing population that is bothering Messrs Naidu and Stalin. Perhaps, Mr Stalin "was alluding to the delimitation exercise due in 2026 where states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala that have done well to control their population are likely to lose their clout in terms of representation in Parliament compared to their more populous northern brethren." "The southern states are united in their opposition to the exercise being carried out purely based on population." "Whatever be the decision, states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and to a lesser extent Karnataka, are seeing fertility rates declining rapidly," wrote Sumanth Raman. At present Uttar Pradesh has 80 seats in the Lok Sabah and Bihar has 40, higher than any of the southern states. eci.gov.in. If the total number of seats in the Lok Sabha stays the same at 543, then the southern states will lose 23-25 seats, while the five most populous states _ UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and MP - will gain 33-35 seats. If the total strength of the Lok Sabha is increased to 790 seats, the southern states will gain just 23 seats while the five large states will gain 150 seats. TOI. The southern states lose anyway. Colonialism by the Hindiwallahs. Worrying.