"The Prime Minister's Office is clearly the driving force behind India's fiscal conservatism. Most likely, the PMO fears that a fiscal spending spree will send inflation soaring to 9%, the level at which voters have historically rebelled against the ruling party," wrote SA Aiyar. "The government's announcement to boost consumer demand such as leave travel concession (LTC) cash voucher scheme (Rs 5,675 crore) and special festival advance scheme (Rs 4,000 crore) are mostly frontloading expenditure with balancing offsetting changes later that will benefit over 11 million central government employees." wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. "To boost spending on capital expenditure, which has a multiplier effect on growth, Sitharaman announced a Rs 25,000 crore (Rs 250 billion) additional spending by the center on roads, defence infrastructure, water supply, urban development and domestically produced capital equipment." "Measures by the government to stimulate demand must not burden the common citizen with future inflation," she (Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman) said, "and must not put government debt on an unsustainable path." India's retail inflation accelerated to 7.34% in September," while, "factory output contracted by 8% in August, at slower pace than in July, indicating that economic activity is gradually gaining pace after the government eased lockdown restrictions". "India's public debt ratio, which remarkably remained stable at around 70 percent of the GDP since 1991, is projected to jump by 17 percentage points to nearly 90 percent because of increase in public spending due to Covid-19, the IMF said on Wednesday". While "the US is considering an additional stimulus taking the total to over 30% of GDP," "all of India's fiscal stimuli add up to barely 2% of GDP". and yet, even with little spending, our retail inflation jumped to 7.4%, while that of Indonesia is at 1.4%, Thailand's is at minus 0.7% and China's is at 2.4%. Writing on effects of unconventional monetary policy in western countries, Prof VA Nageswaran wrote, "They include income inequality and wealth concentration in many countries; asset bubbles in stock markets; an unsustainable boom in private equity and valuations in technology startups with no sign of profitability over any horizon." But now he is not in favor of inflation targeting by the Reserve bank of India (RBI). "The RBI should define overheating more broadly than only through inflation," he wrote, such as thfough trade deficit and asset price bubble. "Stock valuations hit historic highs among headwinds," wrote Vivek Kaul. Confused?
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