Saturday, February 04, 2017

Can we be creditworthy if our government insists we are poor?

Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India, and Josh Felman, former representative of the International Monetary Fund in Delhi, have criticised international credit agencies for refusing to upgrade our credit rating. S&P stuck with its rating of BBB-, and said that there would be no upgrade in the next 2 years. Although it praised the government's economic reforms it had problems with the low per capita GDP, the debt:GDP ratio of over 60%, and the inability of the government to recapitalise the non-performing assets of public sector banks. Moody's also confirmed India's Baa3 rating, with a positive outlook. Both ratings are just above junk status. Ratings agencies arrive at their conclusions on various parameters, based on comparing our economy with those of our peers. India's per capita GDP is the lowest among BRICS nations at $5,238, while the nearest, South Africa boasts a per capita GDP of $12,106. The authors contend that this parameter is faulty because over the last 45 years real per capita GDP has increased by an average of 2.5% per year so it will take 57 years to get to middle-income status. Moody's pointed to high fiscal deficit, government debt of 68.6% of GDP and very high levels of bad loans in banks. The authors point out that China's credit has grown to 86% of GDP, while its growth has fallen to 6.5%. Yet China's rating was increased to AA- from A+ in 2010 and has not been revised downwards. True, but the authors ignore the fact that 6.5% growth of a $10 trillion dollar economy earns more than 3 times in dollar terms than 7.5% growth of a $2 trillion economy. China has foreign currency reserves in excess of $3 trillion, 3 times that of ours which is a shade over $360 billion. India consistently runs a trade deficit, while one month's trade surplus earned by China is more than double our entire year's exports. Not much comparison, is there?  Strangely, the authors are silent about the role played by India's credit rating agencies in the accumulation of bad loans in banks. Our banks are laden with nearly Rs 15 trillion of distressed loans, a large chunk of which will never be repaid. Credit Suisse identified 10 corporate groups which together accounted for around Rs 7 trillion in 2010. Yet from 2011 to 2013 all these companies were rated as 'low risk' to 'no risk' by all our agencies, which enabled them to borrow massive amounts from banks. If politicians insist India is poor what is the fault of credit agencies? Surgical strikes are another example of shameless boasting by politicians. First the BJP boasted of a surgical strike against Pakistan last September. Now a former Congress minister boasts of 3 surgical strikes during Congress rule. Soldiers risked their lives in these strikes, not contemptible politicians who terrorise us with gun-toting bodyguards. What is the rating of humbug?

1 comment:

Sakti Deb said...

Thank you. It takes a long time to read all this so it is great to share.