Tuesday, April 26, 2011

According to Nomura Holdings private equity funds may sell up to $5 billion of their investments in equity in India in the next two years. Seems that property developers need to find some $33 billion to repay or refinance their debt and $5 billion to pay back private equity investors. This could force developers to a " fire sale " of assets leading to a steep fall in property prices. This is profoundly to be desired. Property prices need to fall by 70% to wipe out black money from the economy and bring down inflation. Fall in rents and inflation will help the people. The Reserve Bank must play its part by maintaining a high interest rate so that property prices never increase by more than the headline rate of inflation. Paying 10% on a property of Rs 8 million will be less than paying 5% on Rs 20 million so house buyers will not be inconvenienced. Business people will be the only ones who will howl about high borrowing costs and how this will hamper growth. We must not be taken in by these old lies. Low inflation will bring down wage pressures. Businesses can borrow overseas at very cheap rates. Interest rate in the US is still close to zero. Borrowers can hedge against dollar appreciation by investing a part of their borrowings in the US with SEC permission. So if one borrows $1 billion one can invest, say, $200 million in debt funds in the US. This will protect against rise in the dollar, reassure investors, increase safety and lower interest rate. Business men like to borrow in India because they often use the money for buying cars, houses and foreign trips. No one ever goes to jail. That will not happen in the US. The inflation boil needs to be lanced.

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