Sunday, February 11, 2007

So the inflation rate is 6.5% when everyone knows that it is above 10%. Food and vegetable prices have increased at least 30% in the last one year. Then there is tax inflation which is not taken into account. For instance tax on patrol is on an ad valorem basis which means that everytime the oil price rises the tax also increases but the tax on air tickets is a fixed which means that when a low cost airline offers tickets for Rs. 10 the customer pays about Rs. 2000 because tax is not calculated on percentage of the price. This blood sucking is because in a coalition government the partners have to be paid astronomical sums for their support. And if you are not in power you cannot plunder. This money paid in cash is 'black' so cannot be deposited in a bank account or invested in any conventional instrument. Part of this money is being invested in property where 60% of the price is paid in cash which means black. This accounts for the phenomenal rise in property prices, upto 300% in some areas. Part of the black money is used for round tripping where the money is transferred abroad through hawala operators and then comes back as Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) or Non Resident Indian (NRI) through Mauritius. This is now white money and can be invested in the share market whcih accounts for the Sensex rising from 3000 to near 15000 today. No other market has given such returns. The Reserve Bank is trying suck the liquidity out of the market but the Finance Ministry is doing the opposite probably because they are terrified of a collapse in both the Sensex and house prices. Question is: can a boom driven by black money continue its growth by morphing into a virtuous cycle?

No comments: