Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Government jobs, or else.
In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "expects India to have a $6.77 trillion economy in 2030. That will mean the average dollar income of an Indian at market exchange rates will be $4,468 in that year, as against $2,878 by the end of 2025," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. According to the World Bank, "the proportion of people living on less than US $2.15 a day, which is the international benchmark for extreme poverty, fell sharply from 16.2% in 2011-12 to just 2.3% in 2022-23." So, "India has lifted 171 million people out of extreme poverty." pib.gov.in. At a per capita income of $4,468, India is just below the range of upper middle income countries ($4,516-14,005) from 1 July 2024 for FY25. World Bank. A per capita income of $2.15 per day is not enough for two square meals a day. So, "Not only does India need a new poverty line, but one that is substantially higher than the current one." "Between 2014 and 2024, India's GDP grew at an average of 6-7% annually. Corporate profits soared." But the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) suggests that "inflation-adjusted earnings have either stagnated or declined" for "India's informal and low-skilled workforce - accounting for nearly 90% of all workers." In urban India, "A recent CMIE survey found that salaried jobs fell by nearly 10 million between 2019 and 2023. The jobs that replaced them were mostly informal and gig-based, and less secure, less rewarding," wrote Ashutosh Kumar Thakur. In the IT sector "the salary for an entry-level software engineer has inched up from Rs 3,20,000 in 2011 to just Rs 3,75,000 in 2024 - barely keeping pace with inflation. Meanwhile, CEO compensation in the same sector has quadrupled over the same period," wrote Ravi Venkatesan. Businessman Kishore Biyani divides Indians into three groups - "India 1 (about 120 million people who can afford domestic help), India 2 (about 300 million domestic helpers, drivers and delivery workers), and India 3 (nearly a billion people earning less than $3 a day)." India 2 is under severe stress and barely growing. While the poor remain where they are, "India's luxury retail sector has seen unprecedented growth, with leasing activity surging by 90% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year." "With the increasing number of high-income households in India, expected to double from 15 million in FY23 to 30 million by 2030, India's luxury market is predicted to reach Rs 85-90 billion (US $1.01-1.06 billion) by 2030, a 3.5 fold increase." IBEF. A study of Young India showed that for many "the aspiration was a government job, a coveted position of stability and security." "For a cohort of people not yet 30, an alarmingly large number reported fatigue, sleep issues, anxiety...and difficult menstrual health," wrote M Krishnamurthy & R Bijapurkar. "Indian children are being found at the US borders with Mexico and Canada - without documents, guardians or belongings - carrying only a slip of paper with their parents' names and contact details." From October 2024 to February this year "77 unaccompanied Indian minors were apprehended at the US borders." ET. Anyone with a government job would not dream of abandoning their children. Others have no dreams. Maybe their children will. In the US.
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