Not just one.

"India has decided to pursue a path of trade liberalisation with the United States," and so, "India and the US agreed in February to work on the first phase of a trade deal to be concluded later this year, with a view to reaching $500 billion by 2030." "Reuters reported last month that India is open to cutting tariffs on more than half of US imports worth $23 billion in the first phase of a trade deal." ET. "We don't negotiate with gun to head," said Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. Maybe, but even so, "Indian trade teams are 'really charged up' and want to swiftly seal a bilateral deal with the US." Whence comes the "charge". "India is also in the midst of negotiating free trade deals with the European Union and the UK." "The two sides have been discussing a deal since 2007, but have approached talks with much more urgency since Trump's return to the White House." DH. No progress for 18 years but suddenly "charged up". You cannot put a "gun to head" of 'a headless chicken' (Collins). "India's total exports during FY 2024-25 (April-March) is estimated at US$820.93 Billion registering a positive growth of 5.50%. Total imports during FY 2024-25 is estimated at US$915.19 Billion registering a growth of 6.85%." pib.go.in. Total trade deficit increased from $78.39 billion to $94.26 billion. Merchandise exports remained almost static at $437.42 billion in FY 25 from $437.07 in FY 24, but imports jumped from $678.21 billion in FY24 to $720.24 billion. The biggest component of India's import basket is crude oil, "India's crude oil imports rose to 219.9 million tonnes (mt) in the 11 months to February from 213.4 mt in the year-ago period." TIE. Although the price of crude has fallen from $83.15 per barrel in the US (eia.gov) to $61.23 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate this morning (oilprice.com), the total expense would have risen. The Indian rupee has climbed from an all-time low of 87.95 to the dollar on 11 February (ET) to around 85.65 to one dollar this morning (xe.com). "India's forex reserves rose by $10.8 billion to $676 billion as of the week ending April 4, 2025, data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed." BS. Which is great since it increases our reserves and probably restricts the rupee from strengthening even more. Even as the rupee is getting stronger, the Chinese yuan has become weaker. On 9 April, "China's yuan ended at its weakest level in more than 17 years," as "The onshore finished the domestic trading session at 7.3498 per dollar, its weakest since December 2007." Reuters. Worried about President Trump's tariffs, "Beijing has signaled its intention to address India's concerns about a growing trade deficit that was estimated at a record $100 billion in FY25." HT. Signaling is easy, action will be very difficult, if not impossible. "Veteran investor Shankar Sharma thought he had stumbled upon a sign of India's manufacturing rise - a cluttered workshop in a Mumbai slum promising custom-made gym equipment with catalog-level polish." But his optimism disappeared when the shop owner said, "Sir, I import from China and assemble here. Their, quality, finish, look, is simply unmatchable." BT. Also, much cheaper, and, with both the dollar and the yuan weakening against the rupee, imports are only going to rise. The only positive is that "Overseas Indians sent home a record $129.4 billion in 2024 with the highest ever inflows of $36 billion in the December quarter alone." ET. If the US goes into recession and if illegal Indian migrants are sent back, this could fall. It's not just one gun, but many guns to the head. Better to get charged up. Like a headless chicken.