Sunday, April 20, 2025

Funding respect.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to 3.34% in March 2025, "a decline of 27 points from February 2025, marking the lowest monthly inflation rate since August 2019. These figures demonstrate a sustained effort to curb price rises while fostering economic growth." pib.gov.in. Apparently, this was done by "bolstering buffer stocks of essential food items and releasing them periodically in open markets, alongside subsidized retail sales of staples like rice, wheat flour, pulses and onions." This is just price control (Investopedia) by another name and reduces profits for farmers. As a band-aid, the government started the Prime Minister Kisan Samman Nidhi (Farmers Respect Fund) (PM-Kisan) Yojana which transfers Rs 6,000 every year to the accounts of beneficiaries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi released the 19th instalment on 24 February from Bhagalpur in Bihar. pib.gov.in. Elections to the Bihar Assembly must be held by November 2025. wikipedia. Double propaganda with taxpayer money. Meanwhile, the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) has stopped publishing data about farmers' suicides since 2016. NDTV. India's wholesale inflation (WPI) fell to a four-month low of 2.05% in March on an annual basis as against 2.38% in February. pib.gov. in. Prices are not falling, they are not rising as fast. Although food prices are controlled by the government, the Law of Supply and Demand (Investopedia) still operates. So, the slowing in the rise of prices could be a combination of government control, base effect (wikipedia) and falling demand due to high prices. "Subprime loans in India are teetering on the edge of a fresh crisis, with surveys showing signs of distress among 60% of borrowers." "There's more pain ahead. With 27% of borrowers taking out new loans to service old ones, and some families driven to more extreme coping strategies, such as pulling children out of school." ET. "These are small, collateral-free advances known as microfinance" and, if people are forced to use these to buy basic essentials, their situation must be dire indeed. On the other side, "Since the pandemic, India's rich have been on a splurge. An overall consumption slowdown has failed to restrain their spending spree." "But now things could be taking a turn. Luxury car sales, a good enough proxy for the luxury market since they combine utility, experience and conspicuous consumption, are slowing down." ET. In the middle, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) defaults on credit cards have risen by 28.42% to Rs 67.42 billion in the 12 months to December 2024. TIE. And yet, despite a slowdown in consumption, "After registering negative growth, the country's gold imports, which impact Current Account Deficit (CAD), jumped by 192.13% to USD 4.47 billion in March, on account of a significant increase in the prices of the yellow metal." ET. Why are people wasting money buying gold? Possibly because they anticipated a reduction in interest rates by the RBI to 6% (TOI), which would reduce interest income on savings in banks. Probably also as a hedge against inflation. Because the people do not trust government figures or the RBI's assurances. Trust is gold.  















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