Sunday, April 27, 2025
Just an advice, no compulsion.
"For several years, the World Bank, and International Monetary Fund have praised India for becoming the fastest-growing major economy." "And yet global credit rating agencies - Moody's, S&P and Fitch - still rate India's sovereign bonds as just one grade above what is labeled 'junk' in the bond market." As a result, "The rate of interest on 10-year gilts in India (6.3%) is far higher than in Japan (1.35%), US (4.4%) or Germany (2.51%)," even though, India's combined central and state governments debt is 81.3% of GDP in 2025, while "The US ratio is 124% for the federal govt alone. It is 95% in the UK, 135% in Italy and a whopping 263% in Japan," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. The IMF and the World Bank are known as Breton Woods Institutions which are financed by governments of developed countries. The World Bank provides loans at low interest to countries for reconstruction and development. The IMF is the 'international lender of last resort for countries facing an external financing crisis'. bu.edu. India uses the build-operate-transfer system for infrastructure projects, in which a private company builds a project, recovers its investment by charging users for a period before transferring it back to the government. wikipedia. For instance, "India's toll collection touched an all-time high in FY25 at Rs 729.31 billion, an increase of 12.5%." ET. Also, "India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $8 billion to a six-month high of $686 billion in the week ended April 18," BS. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) acquired 57.5 tonnes of gold during FY25," so that the "RBI's aggregate gold holdings reached 879.6 tonnes by March 2025." TOI. Why is our rating so low? Credit rating agencies (CRA) are US institutions providing guidance to US funds which invest savings of US citizens. These are ordinary people who cannot afford to lose money. In 2023, "UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was in office for just 44 days before she announced her resignation," because, "Yields on UK government bonds - known as gilts - soared after the government announced its mini-budget, which means that prices have crashed as bond yields move inversely to prices." CNBC. No politician resigns in India, as winning an election is considered an investment for unrestrained power and unbelievable luxury at public expense (ET). Still, Indian government bonds have been included in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index - Emerging Market (GBM-EM) from 28 June 2024, increasing by 1% every month to a maximum of 10% by March 2025. Mint. This is expected to bring over $20 billion into Indian bond market, increasing prices and reducing yields. In 2025, "Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) invested around Rs 110 billion in Indian government securities,..since its inclusion in the Bloomberg Emerging Market (EM) Local Currency Index." MC. So, in spite of US agencies advising caution US funds are pouring enormous sums of money into our sovereign bonds. Instead of criticising the agencies we should improve our governance, strengthen our institutions and institute economic reforms. That would be very difficult. Easy to blame foreigners. Takes the load off our lot.
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