May end like President Liu Shaoqi.

"For much of the past year, India-China relations appeared to be on a cautious path to recovery." But recently, Shatrujeet Singh Kapur, director general of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) said that face-offs between Indian and Chinese troops had taken place "in the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh and were continuing." The Chinese came in large numbers and pitched tents "around six-to-seven kilometers inside India's perception of the actual Line of Control (LAC)." BBC. 'Shatrujeet' means 'victory over the enemy', and truth is an effective weapon. China wants to grow its economy at any cost to surpass the US by 2035. To achieve that, "Beijing has been over overinvesting for years, but lately, it has been dumping the excess output it can't sell at home." It has"dropped export prices nearly 20%, producing a 40% surge in volume." Last year its trade surplus rose 20% to a record $1.2 trillion, "And at 340% of GDP, China's total debts are higher than any other emerging economy's, by far," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "In its latest annual review, the World Bank set the high-income threshold at a gross national income (GNI) per capita of more than $14,375 a year. China fell just short. Its Atlas-method GNI per capita for 2025 was $14,230." But China insists on being described as "world's largest developing country". Because they do not want to pay for developing other countries. NDTV. China's economy peaked in 2021. "Since then, China's share of global GDP has fallen in nominal terms from 18% to 16.5%, while the US share has risen to 26%." Its growth is closer to zero "than to the official target of 4.5-5%," and "AI is just not providing a big enough lift to overcome other forces weighing on China, including its shrinking workforce, rising indebtedness, a bust property market, revival of a meddlesome regulatory state, and the resulting exodus of capital and people," wrote Sharma. Maybe that is why, "Pessimism has gripped Chinese stocks, with no end in sight for a deepening selloff," as "The world's second-largest equities market has lost $3.5 trillion in value from a peak in May, data compiled by Bloomberg show." "At the heart of investor gloom is an unsettling realization that protracted consumption slump and the race-to-the-bottom mentality among businesses is taking a heavier toll on earnings across industries from banks to electric car makers and AI model developers." NDTV. "China's industrial growth slowed further in August," as "Firms are increasingly struggling to maintain pricing power due to soft consumption and excess capacity in some sectors. Factories are relying on overseas markets for better profits, a shift that risks deepening China's reliance on exports at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions and greater scrutiny of its trade surplus." Reuters. Other countries are looking for ways to restrict Chinese imports to protect their own industries. "Chinese leader Xi Jinping, intent on pouring trillions into making China a technological and military superpower," so that, "China's credit to the non-financial sector - a broad measure of corporate, government and household borrowings - topped 300% of GDP." "It has jumped by more than $43 trillion since Xi took office in late 2012, according to the Bank for International Settlements." WSJ. "A brutal season has arrived in China's car market, among the most troubled in the world." "The needed shakeout, however, isn't happening yet," as "The growth model that powers the industry's swift rise is making it hard to hit the brakes now that times have turned bad." WSJ. "China's retail inflation remained close to zero or negative for much of 2025, even as other big economies continued to see positive inflation." "China's weak domestic demand is increasingly being offset by exports, raising the risk that its deflationary forces will spread globally," wrote PK Arora & Joydeep Mukherjee. That will affect global GDP growth. Xi Jinping has been arresting anyone he thinks may oppose him (BBC) and, while that may give him a temporary sense of security, his enemies are only multiplying. He must be very familiar with the gruesome end of President Liu Shaoqi (wikipedia). A civil war in China would be welcome. A celebration.     

A very thin waist..

"India lifted an estimated 496 million people out of poverty between 2011 and 2023, with the share of the population living in extreme poverty declining sharply from 27.1% to 2.6%, according to the World Bank." "However, youth unemployment rose from 14.6% to 15.9%," and the report "cautioned that some recent gains may reflect improvements in measurement alongside genuine welfare improvement." NDTV. "The Indian government collected Rs 2.31 trillion as gross goods and services tax (GST) in October, up 22.9% from the same month last year." "The cumulative gross GST collection for the first seven months of this fiscal (April-October) stood at Rs 14.78 trillion, registering a growth of 13.2% year-on-year." ET. This may be because sales of consumer goods start increasing in the months leading up to the festival season in September and October, and retail inflation jumped to 5.54% in September (Reuters). Also, "India's annual (year-on-year) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation increased to 11.39% in September, compared to 9.92% in August 2026." "The increase in wholesale inflation was broad-based, with Primary Articles, Fuel and Power, and Manufactured products recording year-on-year inflation of 8.67%, 25.85% and 9.76% respectively." phdcci.in. The poor are relatively shielded from rising prices by subsidies. The government is distributing free food grains to 813.5 million people at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion over five years, starting 1 January 2024. pib.gov.in. In June 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that 950 million (around 64%) people "are getting the benefit of some or the other social security scheme." newsonair.gov.in. India's total expenditure on subsidies is estimated at Rs 4.55 trillion in this year's Budget. indiabudget. gov.in. "Programs covering housing, cooking gas, toilets, piped water, bank accounts and food security have reached tens of millions of households, and the drop in multidimensional poverty is concentrated in exactly those areas." At the same time, "India's billionaire population in 2025 totaled 284 individuals, making the country third globally after the United States and China." And corruption has reached levels never seen before, wrote Anita Anand. Meanwhile, "Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated across France in largely peaceful protests on 31 October, the latest in a series of youth-led protests that began in late September demanding action on the high cost of living and poor public services, especially schools." BBC. So, "Why is one of the rich world's biggest public spenders on fire again? This is after all a highly redistributive country that has racked up an extra 1 trillion euros ($1.1 trillion) of borrowing since 2019. And yet surveys indicate that the French on average lack 500 euros a month to comfortably cover their outgoings, making them vulnerable to sudden changes in their economic situation - and likelier to protest," wrote Lionel Laurent. The problem is so difficult because, "The biggest beneficiaries, as usual in the West, are pensioners." It is probably not the pensioners themselves who have the power to resist change, but those who are working in salaried jobs, who, looking forward to an affluent, relaxed and enjoyable retirement, have the power of office to block any change in the pension system. In 1980, China and India were roughly equal. But, "China now accounts for a sizable share of the more affluent middle-income earners, while India seems to have faded in relative importance." A tiny group "has earned high returns from financial markets, and...as corporate honchos, bankers, lawyers , and other top professionals." "But the bottom is bursting at the seams." These are on welfare. "Between the bookends of wealth and welfare lies the problematic domain: work and wages," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "A stunted middle class may be a direct result of this extreme inequality." In France it is the haves and the have-nots, in India it is the have-lots and the have-nots. 284 billionaires and 950 million on social security. On one side are the cronies and on the other the vote-bank (wikipedia). Anyone seen the middle class? Endangered species.       

Why wait till the Ides?

"As the Opposition stepped up its attack on his government and the Election Commission ahead of the INDIA bloc rally in New Delhi Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hit back Friday, saying 'some people' were out to 'create chaos across the country, so that Modi can be defamed'." TIE. Not really. Being a prime minister of a country is not just dressing up in new clothes and new headgear everyday (google. com), with luxurious tours around India and  junkets in foreign countries (pmindia.gov.in). This opulent lifestyle, for more than 4,400 days, celebrated by unctuous sycophants with pujas and aartis (NDTV), carries with it, what is known as, responsibility. Being held responsible for the deteriorating economic, social and criminal condition of the nation, despite unchallenged, absolute power for over 12 years,   defended with brutal ferocity by a compliant police (BBC) and investigative agencies (The Wire), is most definitely not defamation. "Addressing a gathering in Gujarat's Banaskantha, PM Modi said some people appeared to take pleasure when the country faced a crisis and attempted to create an atmosphere of uncertainty," even as, "India was dealing with the impact of the Iran war through collective efforts." India Today. Perhaps, in rising panic, "PM Modi on Saturday accused the Opposition of abandoning its constitutional role and becoming an 'obstructionist force' against development." He also said that "'creating divisions could not be justified as democratic dissent." TNIE. What was constitutional when 92 members of parliament (MPs) were suspended by BJP Lok Sabha Speaker and Rajya Sabha Chairman in 2023, so that laws could be passed unopposed? NDTV. Was it to unify the country that Mr Modi and the BJP have been vilifying 'ghuspaithiya' (infiltrators), meaning Bangladeshis? "In the Lok Sabha election last year (2024), Modi had said that the Congress, which believes that Muslims have the first right on the country's assets, will give away non-Muslims' wealth and property to 'infiltrators' if they come to power." The Print. Must by unifying like superglue. If there is a "crisis", the government is more responsible than distant wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Just as the government was responsible when hundreds died of Covid in Mr Modi's own constituency Varanasi because the world's most stringent lockdown was enforced suddenly with just four hours notice on 24 March 2020 when there were only 519 cases (BBC),   forcing millions of migrant workers in Mumbai and Delhi to walk hundreds of kilometers, some with little children, back to their villages (TOI). People of Varanasi got infected because of council elections in Uttar Pradesh on 18 April - "held against advice from experts. Reports say more than 700 teachers on poll duty died in the state and the elections helped spread the virus." BBC. A Special Court in Delhi allowed seven foreign nationals accused of terrorism-related offences to travel home for a month. "The accused, an American national, Matthew Aaron VanDyke and six Ukrainian citizens were arrested in March 2026. The allegations included drone assembly, electronic warfare training and support to ethnic armed organisations along the Indo-Myanmar border." Scroll. Indian citizens arrested under Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) are held in prison for years without trial or providing any evidence to support the allegations. UAB. Crawling to the US while brutally suppressing citizens. The most terrifying is Mr Modi's assertion that "he would continue serving people until his last breath". TOI. That is what Julius Caesar wanted (wikipedia). Until the 'Ides of March'. Britannica.     

Tailors and cobblers to the rescue.

The US midterm elections on November 3, in which Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House," "will set political constraints on President Donald Trump for the rest of his term across trade, immigration, and foreign policy." "A Democratic House would put tariffs under sharper scrutiny, but would not reverse them." And "could slow down restrictive immigration measures." TIE. Before celebrating any Democrat victory, the media should remember that it was a Senator Joe Biden who blocked India's purchase of cryogenic engines from Glavkosmos of the Soviet Union in January 1991 (Indian Defence News), it was a President Bill Clinton who levied sanctions on India in January 1999 (CBC) and it was a President Barack Obama who provided Pakistan with F-16 fighter jets, fast patrol boats, self-propelled howitzer field artillery cannons, night-vision goggles and smart bomb equipment, with a promise to provide more F-16s, leading up to 2010 (India Today), as a bribe, to eliminate Osama bin Laden with the help of Pakistan's ISI in 2011 - confirmed by then Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan in 2019 - (Mint), and to win re-election in November 2012 BBC). Democrats all, causing great damage and danger to India. "The US economy grew at its fastest pace in the third quarter," as "Gross domestic product increased at a 3.4% annualized rate last quarter," because "Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, increased at a 3.8% rate in July-September period." Reuters. "Since January 2025, manufacturing jobs have indeed fallen by about 100,000 workers, or roughly 0.6%. In the same period, though, manufacturing production rose 2.3%, and manufacturing shipments, unadjusted for inflation, climbed 4.2%." WSJ. "The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hovered near 57-year lows last week amid labor market resilience. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ended October 24, the Labor Department said." Reuters. A large number of jobs could have been created as, "US consumers taking weight-loss drugs like Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro have turned to cobblers and tailors as they try to save money while shedding pounds, motivated in part by a cost-of living squeeze and rising out-of-pocket costs for the drugs as US employers increasingly drop GLP-1 coverage." "Cobblers Direct,...is seeing double-digit year-on-year growth in its belt-shortening business, said CEO Stephen Kelly." Reuters. "The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on 28 October as expected." But, "The Fed upgraded its assessment of the economy to 'strong' from the 'solid' expansion seen as of the September meeting, while describing investment as robust and jobs gains as keeping pace with the workforce." Reuters. Meanwhile, "UK Finance Minister John Healey offered help to households buffeted by 'global economic storms'," but "The Office for Budget Responsibility warned that living standards would fall before edging only fractionally above their level before the Covid pandemic by the end of the decade." "It is a pretty grim picture," senior OBR official David Miles told reporters. Reuters. Clearly, belt-tightening means opposite things on the opposite sides of the pond. Tariffs, inflation, war, and yet the economy is growing, unemployment is low and consumers are spending. Put a stop to it. Vote Democrat.          

Forget the hand. Beware the finger.

"Mohan Bhagwat has discovered a sinister foreign hand behind protests in India." "How depressingly familiar. Indira Gandhi popularised the technique of blaming domestic dissent on foreign conspiracies. The 'foreign hand' became a convenient explanation for protests against corruption, inflation and authoritarianism," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Mr Mohan Bhagwat is the Sarsangchalak (Supreme Leader) of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) (wikipedia) which provides muscular support for the BJP government. Mrs Indira Gandhi claimed that there was a CIA conspiracy to assassinate her after the assassination of Chile's Salvador Allende as the reason for declaring an Emergency from 25 June 1975 to 21 March 1977 (wikipedia). At that time the US "was active around the world destabising unfriendly governments and installing friendly regimes. Tin pot dictators in banana republics became extensions of the American empire," wrote Sanjaya Baru. In June 2025, BJP MP Nishikant Dubey "recalled an incident from 1971, claiming former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was kept waiting for an hour by US President Richard Nixon during her visit to Washington." TOI. This was probably a triumphant hint at Prime Minister Narendra Modi being hosted at Blair House, also known as The President's Guest House, by President Donald Trump in February 2025, and where Charles de Gaulle, Queen Elizabeth II and the emperor of Japan also stayed. NDTV. Another difference between Mrs Gandhi and Mr Modi is that Mrs Gandhi won an emphatic victory against Pakistan in December 1971 (wikipedia), leading to the independence of Bangladesh, despite threats from Allied warships led by the US Seventh Fleet (TOI), whereas US President Donald Trump has been claiming repeatedly to have stopped Operation Sindoor by threatening to impose punitive tariffs and that 11 planes were shot down. NDTV. In fact, India could be the 'foreign hand' in the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026 (BBC). "Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola's campaign is under fire after a New York Times report that it played a role in recruiting Dan J Sullivan - a Republican who almost has the same name as incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan - as part of an effort to sow confusion and ultimately benefit Peltola's campaign." Text messages and documents apparently showed that "lawyers for Peltola and senior aides at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee contributed to pushing Dan J Sullivan, a Republican on Alaska's four-way ballot, to run." ABC. Fielding namesakes, known as 'vote cutters', has been a common practice in India. A rival party backs several people with the same name to stand as candidates to confuse the electorate.  "The highest number I came across, coming from a famous 2014 story in Hindustan Times, seven namesakes. Chandu Lal Sahu, a politician from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had seven rivals named exactly like him, apart from three bearing a very similar name (Chandu Ram Sahu) and two more with the same surname. He won, but the final result was a close call," wrote Krzysztof Iwanek. To avoid confusion, especially among the illiterate, the Election Commission of India allots symbols to political parties which can be easily recognized (wikipedia). So, asking people to vote for the 'broom', instead of looking for the Aam Aadmi Party, or the 'hand', instead of the Congress Party, avoids confusion. If it is any consolation to corrupt, inefficient governments, "A Fox news digital investigation claims to have uncovered links between riots in France and youth protests in India demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar." Apparently, "101 organisations across nine countries form a 'red-green protest ecosystem', referring to Islamist and communist groups, that are coordinating, organizing, or amplifying demonstrations across Europe with an expanding protest ecosystem." ET. With so many hands which one is foreign? Forget the hand. Worry about the 'moving finger'. It's writing.          

Peace bondage.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Canada on the 11th and 12th of December." During a telephone conversation with Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, "both leaders agreed to build on the positive momentum in ties and work towards concrete outcomes across key areas of the Strategic Partnership." newsonair.gov.in. Building on "the positive momentum" would probably not be necessary had former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's principal secretary Gerald Butts not accused Mr Modi "of 'screwing' the Canadian Prime Minister during his 2018 trip to India, helping his opposition, the Conservatives, in the country". The Print. However, the Conservatives did not win and the present Prime Minister Mark Carney is also from Trudeau's Liberal Party. pm.gc.ca. It seems that the memory of 'screwing' lasts a long time in international politics. Across the border, "India's Operations Sindoor has featured in election rallies for the US midterm elections, with President Donald Trump once again claiming to have stopped two nuclear armed neighbors from going to war by threatening steep tariffs." "Eleven planes were shot," he repeated for the umpteenth time. "India has repeatedly rejected Trump's assertions that he brokered a ceasefire between mew Delhi and Islamabad." ET. Dang furriners will probably believe Trump. A few days ago, Director General of the Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) Shatrujeet Singh Kapur said that face-offs with Chinese troops "had taken place at several locations in the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh and were continuing." At first both sides withdrew but Chinese troops returned in large numbers and pitched tents "around six-to-seven kilometers inside India's perception of the Line of Actual Control (LAC)." BBC. China annexed "a free and sovereign Tibet between 6 October 1950 and 24 October 1951" and then "the naked two-front Chinese invasion of Kashmir and NEFA (now Arunachal Pradesh) on 20 October 1962." There have been other attacks in October. "Hence, every October, expect the unexpected," wrote Abhijit Bhattacharyya. How is the government defending India? The Delhi Police, a Special Executive Magistrate (SEM) court and the Delhi High Court are forcing the President of the All India Students' Association, Neha Bora, to sign a peace bond. HT.  How did this lone woman disturb the peace with hordes of brutal police attacking unarmed students with sticks, batons and tear gas and deliberately causing permanent disability with pellet guns (BBC)? She apparently wants 'regime change'. What horror! Even the thoroughly submissive, sycophantic 'Godi (lapdog) Media' (wikipedia) is beginning to squeak. "The Indian government's privacy law, which would require journalists to seek consent from people they write about, amounted to pre-censorship and could lead to newsrooms shutting down, media groups told the Supreme Court." Reuters. They should have heeded Martin Niemollar's words: "Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak for me." (Holocaust Encyclopedia) while they were kowtowing to this fascist government. First, it was a Norwegian journalist Helle Lyng Svendsen who asked Mr Modi why he doesn't take questions. "Narendra Modi would not take my question; I wasn't expecting him to. Norway has the number one spot on the World Press Freedom Index, India is at 157th," she wrote. How humiliating for India. Now, "I will not tolerate a foreign police state like India threatening my journalists, We will fight for the truth and won't be silenced by them," said Keean Bexte, founder of independent news organisation Juno News in Canada. The Print. Does Mr Modi still want to visit Canada? For a tourist prime minister  (pmindia.gov.in) foreign junkets could get really uncomfortable. Stay at home and kill Indians for fun. Like the British did. And the Moguls before that. 

How far is 'near term'?

In the 'State of the Economy' article in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) October Bulletin, "RBI officials said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and targeted policy interventions were helping cushion India against external shocks, even as geopolitical conflicts and disruptions to global supply chains posed fresh economic risks." "India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2026-27." News18. That being so, why is the rupee dropping in value, hitting our purchasing power, despite RBI's frantic efforts? "RBI had introduced a special USD-INR Forex Swap facility covering FCNR (B) deposits, ECB and OFCB inflows on June 08, 2026." rbi.org.in. The FCNR (B) scheme collected $127.226 billion and was closed on 31 August. The other two will run till 31 December 2026. After the opening of the scheme, India's foreign exchange reserves climbed to $671.63 billion in the week ended 19 June 2026 but fell to $666.93 billion a week later by 26th."  As on 14 September, "India's foreign exchange reserves have reached a record $785.7 billion, helping the country to climb to the fourth spot among the world's largest reserve holders." NDTV. It has been declining ever since as the RBI has been selling dollars to support the rupee. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $5 billion to $721.02 billion in the week ended 16 October, according to RBI data." ET. The surprising thing is that, "Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday (June 5, 2026) said the forex reserve stood at a healthy $682.3 billion, adequate to provide import cover for about 11 months." "Observing that India successfully negotiated the challenges of elevated tariffs and trade related uncertainties in 2025-26 amid turbulent global economic environment, he said the surge in energy prices and persistent trade policy uncertainties continue to pose upside risks to India's current account deficit in 2026-27." But, "Services trade surplus and inward remittances are expected to provide some comfort." The Hindu. If India had "successfully negotiated" all challenges and the reserves were healthy on 05 June, what could have happened in three days for the RBI to resort to a panicked nuclear option on 08 June? On 1 September, "India's current account deficit widened marginally in the April-June quarter from a year ago on the back of higher commodity prices and a wider trade gap," to $4.2 billion, or 0.5% of GDP, "compared with a revised deficit of $3.4 billion, or 0.4% of GDP, a year earlier, the RBI data showed." "In the preceding quarter, the current account had recorded a surplus of $6.5 billion. The current account is expected to widen in the second and third quarter of the year, with full year gap at close 0.9% of GDP, Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said." Reuters. On 21 October, "India should allow the dollar-rupee exchange to move as the first line of defence amid the ongoing oil shock, an IMF official said." "The RBI has intervened heavily to support the rupee via dollar sales from its reserves," so that, "The rupee, which fell to near record levels earlier this month has rebounded about 2%." "Foreign-exchange interventions have not been particularly beneficial beyond the near term due to the oil shock, Srinivasan said." Reuters. "India should resist the temptation to defend the rupee at any cost, even if it means allowing the currency to weaken further, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said on 27 October." ET. So what "near term" is the government looking at? May be banking on Benjamin Netanyahu losing the general election in Israel and the next prime minister negotiating a peace deal with Iran. Alas, "Israel's exit polls reversed overnight on Tuesday, projecting Prime Minister Banjamin Netanyahu as having a narrow lead over on his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. HT. The other hope: "With just a week left for the US midterm elections, betting markets suggest that President Donald Trump's Republican Party could lose control of Congress." TOI. Democrats hate Trump and support Palestinians and so will cut military aid to Israel. Oil prices will fall and the rupee will bounce, enabling the RBI to buy dollars back. Keeping the rupee strong till February-March, when Assembly elections are to be held in very important states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur (wikipedia), may help to suppress the prices of imports, especially oil. Inflation is an election loser. And so, it's support rupee "at any cost". But is February in the "near term"?     

Yes to trade deal; No to cannibal cows.

"India and the US have concluded most discussions on the proposed bilateral trade agreement and are now fine-tuning the pact, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said yesterday, signalling progress in negotiations amid continuing tariff-related uncertainties." NDTV. "Under the framework, the US was required to reduce reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, while India had committed to reducing or eliminating tariffs on most US agricultural and industrial exports." India has to purchase US energy, technology, agricultural, coal and other products over 5 years, accept US diktat on third-country trade, meaning sanctions, and international standards on US products, wrote Abhijit Das. The last is a sly, underhand attempt at sneaking dairy products into India, produced from cows fed with "Meat meal from pigs, chickens, horses, or even dogs and cats," "Blood from pigs and horses", and "Chicken feathers, bedding material and dropping." The most disgusting practice is feeding tallow from cattle to cows. ET. Dairy from cannibal cows is truly revolting, even to think about. US is one of the very few countries that India has a trade surplus with. In 2025, India's merchandise exports to the US was $103.8 billion while imports from the US was $45.4 billion, giving a surplus of $58.4 billion. In services, we exported $47.6 billion worth and imported worth $42.9 billion, giving a surplus of $4.7 billion. ustr.gov. In financial year 2025-26, India's total (merchandise+services) exports grew 4.22% to $860.09 billion while total imports grew 6.47% to around $970 billion. Total trade deficit was almost $110 billion. ddnew.gov.in. The trade deficit with China alone rose to $99.19 billion in fiscal 2025-26 from $85 billion in 2024-25. BS. The problem is that India is seen as unfair to foreign businesses. "Foreign investors are not amused. Jamie Dimon, chair of JP Morgan has noted in several recent interviews that India's government ought to pay attention to a regulatory deficit." "Retail lobbies have long managed to keep this sector's foreign investors in a straitjacket. Licensed categories like aviation are rife with policy puzzles. Abrupt rule tweaks are common. Asset shifts have been wrapped in riddles in fields like e-commerce and infrastructure." Mint. In 2022, Amazon walked away from an auction of media rights of the Indian Premier League cricket tournament. Amazon had started with e-commerce but "almost immediately ran into the Indian flavor of protectionism. Under the nation's strict foreign investment rules, the company can't hold or control inventory." Under new CEO Andy Jassy, "Amazon has said its investment in India will surge past $35 billion by 2030, but much of that will go to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence (AI) - not e-commerce." ET. It may seem a lot of money, but since most of the equipment will be imported, and not many jobs created, it will not be much of a gain. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) came into effect in July 2026. Under it, India will get "zero-duty access on nearly 99% of India's exports, covering almost 100% of the trade value." pib.gov.in. The agreement has already run into jobsworth Indian officials. Under CETA, duty on Scotch whisky is to be reduced to 75% from 150% immediately and then to 40% over the next 10 years. But revenue investigators are saying that bulk Scotch concentrates are not eligible for the lower rate of duty. TOI. We will be paying zero duty on 100% of our trade value but are not willing to honor a huge 75% duty on one product. Regarding the India Japan high- speed Shinkansen rail project, former Justice Minister of Japan Hideki Makihara said that "what stood out in international meetings and negotiations was the sheer recklessness of the Indian side...They just don't keep promises, no matter what. Even if they make a promise, they flip it right away." He said the Indian minister was "awful", DH. We need a trade agreement with the world's biggest consumer market with consumer spending at 16788.70 USD billion in the second quarter of 2026, up from 16634.20 USD billion in the first. Trading Economics. That is potentially over $64 trillion in the whole year. But we need to realize that trade cannot be a one-way street. We need to compromise on some things. But, not on cannibal cows, please. No matter what.   

  

It's a paradox.

"Going by projections by global agencies, India is on course to surpass its 2003-2007 record of five consecutive years of 7% or higher growth, Kyunghoon Kim of Korea Institute for International Economic Policy said." "Following a 5.8% contraction during the pandemic, India's economy rebounded sharply by 9.7% in 2021 and has sustained growth exceeding 7% in each succeeding year." TOI. A report by the Union Bank of India "highlighted that India's outstanding private capex pipeline reached Rs 99.7 trillion in September 2026, nearly 4.1 times its March 2014 level and 39% higher than a year ago." "The report cautioned that project announcements could outpace actual executions." ET. "Even as the conventional tax-paying middle class in India feels economically crushed, the number of individuals declaring an income of more than Rs 10 million has risen about eight-fold in the last 12 years to 324,000." "Taxpayers earning Rs 500,000 to Rs 10 million...saw their average income move from Rs 1.023 million in 2012-13 to just Rs 1.069 million in 2023-24," while "Consumer prices rose about 80% between FY13 and FY24." Which means they are earning 42% less in real terms. "In FY13 rupees, the Rs 1.069 million earned in FY24 buys what Rs 595,000 did then," wrote Nandita Rajhansa & Suarabh Mukherjee. "The 'octopus class', according to Mukherjee and Rajhansa, comprises nearly 200,000 families across India, in small towns as well as big cities, or nearly 1 million people, who control nearly 80% of India's wealth." "A town with less than 0.5 million people will have 20 such families," while "A city with 1 million people will have 50 such families." ET. The study does not tell us what proportion of this 'octopus class' are 'Bahubalis' (strongmen) (pgurus.com) who enjoy political protection. Political scientist Milan Vaishnaw has studied why Indians vote for criminals. He found that a candidate with a criminal record "had an 18% chance of winning their next election whereas the 'clean' candidates had only a 6% chance." Criminals can force a callous and corrupt civil service to deliver services which people want. BBC. "Investment in the Indian Economy as reflected by GFCF (gross fixed capital formation) recorded a strong growth of 11.9% in the first quarter of 2026-27." "The Centre's capex has grown by 30% in the first four months of the current fiscal year." "Investment by India's private non-financial sector (with 30% of the total investment) grew by 7% in 2024-25, jumping from 3% growth recorded the previous year," wrote Rajani Sinha. "Note that India's corporate capex has been stable at 14-15% of GDP in the past decade, lower than 17-18% in the post-2008 period and its peak of 21% in 2007-08." "India's total investment-to-GDP ratio has averaged 33% in recent years. Not only is this better than about 30% in the pre-pandemic period, but also only second to China's 40% among the world's major economies," wrote Nikhil Gupta. The private sector will increase investment only if they are sure of making profits, but India's middle class is not growing. Outside the 1 million octopus class are 800 million people who survive on free food grains for five years from 1 January 2024 (pib.gov.in). "Between the bookends of wealth and wages lies the problematic problem: work and wage," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "A stunted middle class may be a direct result of this extreme inequality. Folks at the top of the ladder don't see the teeming masses as a meaningful market, except for utilities, soap, short videos, and personal loans. Meanwhile, those at the bottom of the pyramid lack the education and skills to manufacture things for the wealthy at home and overseas." Enforced gig work does not create a middle class. "A total of 64.3% of India's population, which represents over 940 million people, are now covered by at least one social protection benefit," boasted Labour and Employment Minister Mansukh Mandaviya. TNIE. If the gross domestic product (GDP) is growing at over 7% and government and private investment are growing it should mean production is increasing. With 940 million on some sort of social benefit demand should be muted, but the RBI is signaling more rate hikes due to higher inflation (Reuters). How can prices increase if demand is low while production is high. The great Indian paradox. Could someone please explain.