Need to borrow their god.

"In a swift reversal of fortunes, countries that had been hardest hit by US President Donald Trump's tariffs have emerged as the biggest winners from the Supreme Court's decision to strike down his emergency levies." ET. On 2 February, "India and the US agreed on an interim trade deal under which US tariffs on Indian goods were reduced to 18% from 25%." On 21 February, Trump announced the rate would be raised to 15% (from 10%), subject to the 150-day statutory limit." ET. Still it is a 3% advantage for India. But, "Nothing changes. They'll (India) be paying tariffs, and we will not be paying tariffs." "I also stopped the war between India and Pakistan. As you know 10 planes were shot down," said Trump. This is a little jibe against India where Prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed a great victory against Pakistan in Operation Sindoor (pib.gov.in). He then said "I think Prime Minister Modi is a great gentleman, a great man actually." Whether this was intended as a balm, or tongue in cheek, is left to our imagination. However, other pressure points seem to have been activated. "The US Securities and and Exchange Commission has asked a US court for helping in serving summonses upon Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and group executive Sagar Adani over alleged fraud and a $265 million bribery scheme, filings show." Reuters. In addition, "Adani Enterprises said...that a US agency is conducting a civil investigation into the company's transactions that may have involved Iran or parties subject to US sanctions." Reuters. This is following "allegations cited in a Wall Street Journal report published in June last year," which "had claimed that Billionaire Adani was attempting to officials in the administration of US President Donald Trump to drop bribery charges against him." ET. Mr Modi's friendship with Mr Adani is common knowledge, with Congress leader Jairam Ramesh claiming that "the real equation to consider is "Modi+Adani=Modani". TOI. "As early as 2015, a prominent Indian newspaper reported that everywhere Modi went 'Adani was sure to go'. This support has not always helped India. On the contrary, by brazenly promoting the oligarch's ambitions, Modi has sometimes hurt his country's relations with her neighbors as well as other countries." Adani Watch. Meanwhile, Nikhil Gupta has confessed to a conspiracy to assassinate Khalistani Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and named former India's intelligence officer Vikash Yadav as his handler in a New York court. There is a US arrest warrant for Yadav. The Wire. The Indian government cannot hand over an intelligence operative to another nation, so what happens now? More sanctions? As long as voters don't know, who cares. So, the government's "User Manual for Sahyog (meaning 'collaboration' Portal (IT intermediaries)" "makes it clear that orders are unilateral, and a direct correspondence between government agencies and intermediate platforms like social media and telecom providers. The content excludes journalists or content creators from the definition of 'stakeholders'." The Wire. Fascism works at home. Not in other countries. However, as long as there is an army of deluded Bhakts, with heads full of dung, the vote bank is rock solid. Perhaps, we should borrow America's God in whom they trust.           

Don't hold your breath.

 "India's year-on -year retail inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), based on the revised base year 2024, stood at 2.75% in January 2026, compared to January 2025, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)." "The CPI base year has been revised from 2012 to 2024 using data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES)." The new series starts at 100 from 2024 and ensures that "the index remains representative of current household consumption patterns, price structures and the evolving nature of the Indian economy." ddnews.gov.in. The percentage of different items in the CPI basket has been adjusted to reflect the differences in spending by households between 2012 and 2024. Weight of food and beverages have been reduced from 42.62% to 36.75%, because of lower spending on food, while spending on Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, Health, Transport, Education Services and Restaurants and accommodation services have exploded. Yet their weights have been increased only slightly. Finshots. While spending on restaurants and entertainment may be optional, housing, energy, health, transport and education are obligatory. Shouldn't they have higher weights? This government first came to power in 2014, with 282 seats (272 required for majority) in the Lok Sabha. wikipedia. Since then average inflation per calendar year has run at over 4% annually. rateinflation,com, CPI inflation is a comparison with the previous year's prices. This is the 'base effect'. Investopedia. CPI inflation was 4.98% last year and has fallen to 2.75% this year. This does not mean that prices have fallen but that they have risen 2.75% on last year's prices. So, inflation compounds over time. Core inflation leaves out volatile food and energy prices and perhaps gives a truer picture of the burden of rising costs on people. Investopedia. The government does not release the core CPI data but according to CEIC, core CPI inflation was at 3.375% in January 2026 over 4.98% in December 2025 and has averaged 5.362% from Jan 2012 to Jan 2026. CEIC. Which means that anything which cost Rs 1,000 in Jan 2012 would cost Rs 2,077 now. investor. gov. It would be helpful to be told the CPI inflation using the new basket of consumption as well as the old one so that we can compare, without the circus in 2019 when the government was suspected of massaging GDP back series data to show a higher growth rate compared to the previous Congress-led government. Acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC), PC Mohanan and member of NSC, J Meenakshi resigned in protest. Reuters. Prof Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, has recently visited various schools in Purulia in Bengal, Bangalore and in Pune and was impressed that "The discussions were rigorous and unsparing." His last visit was to Delhi. "There pouring over the latest economic data and listening to political leaders respond to mounting challenges with familiar slogans, my optimism began to fade. India's promise is undeniable and its talent abundant, yet politics and empty rhetoric continue to undermine prospects." Mint. It's not about base year, consumption basket or household spending but about whether the figures will be actual, or just for chest thumping, which no one will believe. Better not to hold our breaths.  

A humble request.

 Delhi proposes "the rollout of an AI-powered Integrated Traffic Management System (ITMS) that will use automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras, smart traffic signals and automated challans." ET. A 'challan' is a traffic citation with a hefty fine (wikipedia) to collect as much ransom from long-suffering drivers as possible. Ironically, "While global tech titans and world leaders have gathered for India AI Impact  Summit 2026 at Bharat Mandapam in Delhi to discuss the future of artificial intelligence and seamless connectivity," several people, including delegates, "were forced to walk for kilometers after the event to find a cab as the entry of vehicles on the roads outside Bharat Mandapam was barred for VVIP movement and entry to the nearest metro station was closed." DH. While people outside were badly treated, "I was sort of confused and didn't know what I was supposed to do," Open AI CEO Sam Altman said, hours after his 'no handshake' moment with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Amodei founded Open AI with Altman but left to found its competitor Anthropic. "Modi grabbed my hand and put it up, and I wasn't sure what we were doing," he said. Don't worry, Sir, the whole thing was just a photo-op to showcase the Great Man at great cost, part of which may be financed by challans on people whose daily lives were being completely upset. A VVIP, or a Very, Very Important Person, (wikpedia) is a very, very special subgroup of homo sapiens whose habitat is only in India, and is higher than the more common VIP, or Very Important Person, and who can do anything with total impunity, guarded by the police and special forces, ready to shoot if any citizen should dare to protest. While a VIP can shut a stadium to walk his dog, or demand superiority over our Gods, a VVIP can, and does, halt ambulances carrying critical patients to hospital, resulting in their deaths. News18. So why is Delhi Traffic Police unable to manage traffic? Because, "Against a sanctioned strength of 6,102  personnel. only 4,901 are currently in position." Of these, "on any given day, nearly 500 personnel are on leave, another 500 are diverted for special duties and VIP deployment," and the rest are gainfully employed catching anyone without a Pollution Under Control Certificate (PUC) which every vehicle must carry,to be renewed every year for new vehicles to every three months for older ones, upon payment of a fee to augment Delhi government's coffers. ddnews.gov.in. "The India AI Impact Summit 2026 has attracted investment commitments  of over $250 billion related to infrastructure, Union IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said. Humble request to Messrs Pichai, Altman and Amodei: Please stay away from India. AI will only be used to increase the powers of the VVIP coterie and enslave us, the unlucky citizens of India. We will be most grateful. Thank you. 

Friendly, but for how long?

"Washington blinks, New Delhi benefits," "giving Indian exporters an edge over competitors from Bangladesh (20% tariffs), Vietnam (20%), Indonesia (19%) and China (37%), one can visualise a surge that will speed up India's fast-moving economic engine," wrote Sreeram S Chaulia. Critics are saying that India has lost its strategic autonomy by pledging to give up Russian oil, but, "The reality is that access to US markets, capital, know-how and technology is far more important for the Indian economy (and job creation) than any savings from Russian crude oil discounts," wrote Tanvi Madan. That is the long-term wish, but what happens to short-term revenue for the government. "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price while diesel tax is 50% of of the fuel's retail value." cleartax.in. In January, "India's average crude oil imports cost fell below $60 a barrel,..among the lowest it has been in five years despite...sanctions against three major crude oil suppliers - Iran, Russia and Venezuela." HT. The government may levy a windfall tax on "The three state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs)...which "posted a combined net profit of Rs 340.67 billion in the first half of 2025-26, a 269.4% year-on-year jump that exceeded their full-year profit of Rs 336.02 billion in 2024-25." HT. The government of course squeezes enormous dividends out of the public sector enterprises (PSE) it controls. It has already received Rs 526.67 billion out of PSEs in the financial year 2025-26, which ends on 31 March. dipam.gov.in. "Geopolitics and geo-economics both suggest that our choice in the new G-2 world is to partner either with the US (with which we have a lot in common, starting with democracy) or with China-Russia," and "China's expansionist and mercantilist tendencies should be both contained and reduced," wrote Surjit S Bhalla. Hence, a partnership with the US will protect us. Or, will it? In 2010, during Barack Obama, "In the last three years, the US has provided 14 F-16s, five fast petrol boats, 115 self-propelled howitzer field artillery canons," ostensibly to fight the Taliban. India Today. In 2019, Imran Khan, then Prime Minister of Pakistan, said that the Inter-Servicea Intelligence (ISI) helped the CIA to kill Osama bin Laden in 2011. DH. In 2012, Obama won re-election for his second term in office. wikipedia. In the 1971 war between India and Pakistan, which led to East Pakistan becoming independent Bangladesh, President Richard Nixon discussed asking the Chinese to attack India and, possibly, use nuclear weapons to stop Indian advance. Dhaka Tribune. Russian submarines and ships put the US, UK and Austrlian navies to flight. India Times. Besides, the deal was necessary only because Trump had imposed a reciprocal tariff of 25% unilaterally and a penal tariff of 25% for buying Russian oil. There is no guarantee that Trump won't increase the tariff if he is dissatisfied with India's pace of reforms, as he did to South Korea, wrote Swaminathan Aiyer. China is our existential enemy, the US is fickle but Russia has been our proven friend. We are paying the US for its deal. Let's deal with Russia as well. A friend in need, a friend forever. 

Flow of liquidity.

In its December 2025 meeting, "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has slashed its repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.5% to 5.25%, but in the latest meeting in February, "The RBI has kept its key lending rate, known as the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25% in the first monetary policy decision since the budget." NDTV. "Given the impending revision in two key macroeconomic numbers - gross domestic product (GDP) estimates where the base year is to be brought forward to 2022-23 from 2011-12 at present and consumer price inflation (CPI), where the base is to be moved forward to 2024 from 2011-12 now - any other decision would have risked rocking the boat," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. In 2025, the RBI cut its policy rate by a total of 125 bps, from 6.5% to 5.25%, bringing the interest rate down by 105 bps on fresh bank loans and interest paid on fresh term deposits by 95 bps. ET. In addition, the RBI announced a reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 bps from 4% to 3% in tranches of 25 bps. This was expected to release Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system. ET. CRR is the money commercial banks must deposit with the RBI without interest and cannot be used for lending or investment. (Kotak Bank). "According to the Economic Survey, average surplus liquidity in the system was a mind boggling 117 times that of the previous year." "What is left unsaid is that, as the government's debt manager, it will manage liquidity so that the government's borrowing goes through successfully and at a low cost." In its efforts to release more money into the system, the RBI has been buying government bonds. "The RBI has already stepped in aggressively this financial year, purchasing nearly Rs 7 trillion worth of bonds, a move that helped cap yields." Mint. By taking the government's debt on to itself the RBI is monetizing the fiscal deficit (BS). Creating fresh money to finance government spending is supposed to be inflationary but the RBI is probably reassured by the CPI inflation falling to an annualised rate of 1.33% in December 2025 (mospi.gov.in). In addition, "The Centre is budgeting a record Rs 3.16 trillion in dividend receipts from the RBI and public sector banks (PSBs) in 2026-27,..helping to keep the fiscal deficit under check. TOI. Last year, the RBI dished out a record Rs 2.68 trillion (newsonair.gov.in) and in 2023-24 it was another record Rs 2.11 trillion (Grip Investment). The bond market seems unimpressed with the RBI's liquidity flood. The benchmark 10-year bond yield is at 6.754%, down a tad from 6.769% on 02 February. investing.com. India's foreign exchange reserves may have been at a record $723.77 billion on 30 January (BS), but even this may not be enough if foreign investors take fright and the government runs up a big deficit because of loss of revenue from free trade agreements. The RBI was nationalised in 1949 (rbi.org.in), so it is paying the government. It is creating a flood of money but can it control the flood? Liquidity is liquid. It may flow out..      

Better to be monkey. Than hostile.

 Three days back, "A pit six meters long four meters wide and deep, dug by the Delhi Jal Board (DJB) on a service road in Janakpuri in West Delhi," resulted in the death of 25-year-old Kamal Dhayani, He was found next morning at the bottom of the pit, still wearing his helmet, with his motorcycle lying next to him. While, "Delhi Police officials said the bike could have fallen while trying to ride over the dug-up mounds of earth," "the DJB said that there was green mesh and safe barricading at the site." TIE. So, he must have committed suicide. Case closed. Many people saw the accident and the victim lying at the bottom of the pit but no one informed the police until a woman, Shivani, came on the scene. HT. It may be because most people feel that no one will be held responsible and they would be forced to turn into 'hostile witnesses'. "In India, in most cases involving the rich and the influential people or corrupt politicians, witnesses turn hostile, making the rule of law a mockery. Very often witnesses become untraceable. Sometimes they are just eliminated." Law Teacher. "While the sub-contractor, identified as Rajesh Kumar Prajapati, 47, was arrested...and booked for culpable homicide, the main contractor and the laborer, identified by his single name Yogesh, were absconding." HT. Delaying arrest gives time to contact influential friends, pay off key individuals and appoint a lawyer adept at seeking adjournments from polite judges. Criminal cases take and average of 5-20 years to resolve (jsrohilla.in) and this gives ample time for the accused to intimidate witnesses into turning hostile. In 2008, 13 year-old girl Aarushi Talwar and 45 year-old man Yam Prasad 'Hemraj' Benjade were murdered inside Aarushi's home, with doors locked from the inside, but no one was found responsible. wikipedia. In 2021, a 19 year-old lower caste woman was found in a field by her family "battered and bruised, barely conscious and naked from the waist downwards. Her spine was broken, she was bleeding and vomiting blood." "In her 'dying declaration', the 19-year-old told a magistrate that she had been gang raped and strangled and named four of her neighbors as the perpetrators." BBC. Three of the four men have been found innocent and one found guilty of a lesser charge. wikipedia. In 2006-07, bodies of 17 children were dug up in Nithari, a village in Uttar Pradesh. One Surinder Koli was found guilty of murder in 10 of the children and his employer Maninder Singh Pandher was found guilty of two, Both were sentenced to death by Allahabad High Court in 2023. wikipedia. In 2025, the Supreme Court found both men not guilty. BBC. In India, people are murdered by no one. It follows, therefore, no one is responsible for children dying by drowning in manholes which have been left open. "The National Crimes Bureau (NCRB) reveals a sobering reality: In India, one person dies every 12 hours from falls into open pits and manholes, with a staggering 5393 such deaths recorded since 2015." Inventiva. If you see nothing and hear nothing you will have to say nothing, or else, you will face serious hostility from goons. Could be labeled 'hostile'. Or end up in a pit. Better to be one of the monkeys. And alive.  

It's only Interim.

The India-US Joint Statement on a trade deal has been announced which brings down reciprocal tariffs on a range of Indian goods exported to the US to 18%. Reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of goods could be removed "subject to the successful conclusion of the interim agreement." "India intends to purchase $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and cooking coal over the next 5 years." pib.gov.in. A reciprocal tariff of 26% was imposed on India in the Executive Order 14257, published on 4 April 2025, which complained that "the United States has among the lowest simple average MFN (most favored nation) tariff rates in the world at 3.3%," India was charging a rate of 17%. - a rate of 70% on passenger vehicles, 80% for rice in the husk, 50% for apples and 10% for network switches and routers. Seems to have a point. At 18%, India will have an advantage over Vietnam (20%) and Indonesia (19%), wrote Arpita Mukherjee. "The deal comes at a time when exporters of labor-intensive products like garments, footwear and leather items were feeling the pinch of high tariffs imposed in 2025." "Under the agreement, India will remove or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a broad basket of agricultural products, including dried distillers' grains, red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruits, soybean oil, wine and spirits." India Today. Red sorghum, or Lal Jowar, is already grown in India (gonefarmers.com), so why do we need to import it free of tariffs? While most goods sold in India come under the goods and services tax (GST) collected by the Union government, states levy their own taxes on alcoholic drinks. "It's estimated that taxes on liquor and beer fetch the state governments nearly Rs 900 billion annually." cleartax.in. Will states be free to levy their own taxes on American wine and spirits, which will raise their prices, and if not, will they have to reduce taxes on Indian wine and spirits so that they can compete? Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal "asserted that India's sensitive agricultural and dairy products sectors will continue to be shielded. He also clarified that no genetically modified products from the US will be allowed in India as part of the trade deal." TOI. "The joint statement says both sides have agreed to strengthen economic security alignment to enhance supply chain resilience and innovation through 'complementary actions'," which, according to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava "suggests that India's security and economic policies may increasingly need to align with those of the United States." TNIE. Reassuringly, "Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani have hired prominent attorneys in the US - including one of Donald Trump's lawyers and a former Mafia prosecutor - to represent them in their defence against allegations of securities fraud leveled by the Securities and Exchange Commission." Mint. The Mafia and the Don, they should be safe. India is paying only $500 billion for the trade deal. Seems like a bargain.