Dot-com plus subprime, says RBI.

"Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Indian financial system remained resilient and the economy had navigated the West Asia crisis well, but policymakers needed to stay vigilant." "Malhotra cautioned against stressed valuations, especially those related to AI, elevated debt levels globally, elevated leverage that could spill over to banks and markets in case of tightening of financial conditions, private credit, and cyber risks that have been compounded by AI." ET. In short, a combination of the 'dot-com bubble', in which the soaring share prices of Internet technology companies reached unsustainable levels, leading to a sudden collapse (Britannica), which caused central banks to lower interest rates to stimulate a recovery and this led to a housing boom caused by lending to high-risk borrowers with poor credit rating, camouflaged by credit default swaps, resulting in the sub-prime crisis in 2008 (Investopedia). The Federal Funds rate dropped to 1% on 6 November 2002, rose to 5.25% on 29 June 2006, and dropped to 0% to 0.25% on 16 December 2008 (Forbes), reflecting the boom and bust cycles of the US economy. Market capitalization of AI related companies sounds like fiction, with Nvidia at $5.67 trillion, Alphabet at $4.16 T, Microsoft at $3.84 T, Amazon at $2.71 T, TSMC at $2.45 T and SpaceX at $2.1 T. Bullfincher. "Total US debt has topped $40 trillion for the first time, the Treasury department said, drawing fresh warnings that a fiscal crisis is brewing." Outstanding total public debt stood at $40.047 trillion. Reuters. "Global debt rose by around $7.5 trillion in the first three months of the year to a record high of over $324 trillion, data from a banking trade group showed." "The global debt-to-output ratio continued to move slowly lower, standing at just above 325%. However, in emerging markets (EM) the ratio hit a record high of 245%." Reuters. India is classed as an EM. India's "seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a seven-month high of 55.1 in September after hitting a five-year low of 52.8 in August (below 50 is negative)." "High input costs are adding pressure across transportation, energy and manufacturing activities." "For manufacturers, there is little room to raise prices and protect margins." Mint. "While private consumption gained traction - rising 7.1% in the June quarter against 6.8% a year ago," "new project announcements rose 33% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the April-September (H1) period of fiscal year 2027 (FY27) to Rs 30 trillion." "Manufacturing, once a major contributor to capex, saw a 23.2% decline in new investments," while "intentions in construction and real estate plummeted 31.5%." Mint. While "the listed sector's investments amounted to Rs 12-13 trillion, (averaging about 4% of GDP) in the four years from 2022-23 to 2025-26," "the unlisted corporate sector invests as much as 10% of GDP, or more than two-thirds of aggregate corporate capex," wrote Nikhil Gupta. "While the listed sector's profits are closer to their all-time peak of 5.8% of GDP and its leverage ratio at 17% of GDP was at a two-decade low in 2025-26, the profits of the unlisted sector dropped to a 15-year low of 3.5-4% of GDP, while its debt-to-GDP ratio was at a seven-year high of 33% of GDP in 2025-26." As a result, the listed sector's capex is healthy while the larger unlisted sector has to reduce new investments. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is also down, with net FDI "down from nearly $44 billion in 2020-21 to under $1 billion in 2024-25, even as gross inflows touched a record $94.5 billion," wrote Ashish Dhawan & Piyush Doshi. Is the global economy careering towards an almighty explosion? Should we be concerned here in India? Perhaps, only a little. With a nominal GDP of $4.15 trillion (IMF), compared to Nvidia's market value of $5.67 trillion, and manufacturing contributing only 17% of GDP  (IBEF), the effect on us should be more of a ripple than a wave. Dot-com plus subprime? No problem.        

They can see it.

Last month, "US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping exchanged warm words at a lavish White House state dinner but gave little indication of progress on pressing issues." "Billionaire business leaders and US tech CEOs joined the leaders at the extravagant dinner." BBC. "The two leaders extended a trade truce, exchanged gifts and compliments, and acknowledged the possibility of working together to contain the dangers of AI development." And so, "the Washington trip was relatively uneventful. But for Xi's own ambitions, China didn't need much else." CNN. "Artificial Intelligence, which...Trump has now branded as 'super intelligence' or SI, is reminding more and more of the dangerous Cold War contest between the US and the erstwhile Soviet Russia. With AI companies themselves pointing at possible risk to humanity, it could be even more dangerous than nuclear weapons," so that, "What looked like another tech race between the US and China is turning into a contest over economic power, military capability and technological innovation, with both governments treating the control of AI as a matter of national security." ET. India shares a 3,488 km border with China (mha.gov.in) which, with its advanced technological and defence capabilities, is the greatest existential threat to India. This cloying relationship between the US and China is bad news for us. In addition, "Autonomous technology and defence firm Powerus," with "significant financial backing from...Trump's eldest sons, Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump," "formalized a strategic Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and received a limited procurement order from the Ministry of Defence of Pakistan for unmanned aerial systems and associated technical support." This strategic agreement, "signalling a notable warming of defence tech collaboration between Washington and Islamabad," "has heightened geopolitical stakes across the border, drawing serious concern from New Delhi." News 18. This is despite, or maybe because, Pakistan is an 'Iron Brother' of China, whose friendship is 'harder than steel' (CIIS). On the other hand, "Since 2025, India-US ties have been strained following Operation Sindoor, and the Trump administration's tariff announcement." During this time, "India's paid congressional operation in Washington has also shrunk from a multi-firm network to a single account." "Thus when India needed to position its Russian energy imports as an energy necessity forced by the Iran war rather than a policy choice, it had few allies left on the Hill." NDTV. In his speech at the UN General Assemby meeting in September, Trump again repeated his claim that he prevented a war between India and Pakistan after India launched Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025 (pib. gov.in) in response to a terrorist attack on 22 April 2025 at Pahalgam in Kashmir in which 26 unarmed civilians were gunned down (wikipedia). "The Prime Minister of Pakistan, terrific man, said that Donald Trump was responsible for saving 30 million lives and probably many more than that," Trump said. NDTV. About 10,000 protesters turned up in Mumbai yesterday demanding the resignation of the Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar for deleting voters' names from the election rolls in favor of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). TOI. This has been dubbed 'vote chori' (stealing of votes) and has made Mr Modi's election victories illegitimate. "Foreign diplomats are unable to ignore the new realities." "In this context, the meeting this May between Rahul Gandhi and the heads of missions of 27 European members was an unusual engagement. September witnessed separate meetings with the Australian High Commissioner Philip Green and Russian Ambassador Denis Alipov." US Ambassador Sergio Gor and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim have also met Mr Gandhi, wrote Anil Tyagi. Mr Modi heads a minority government with the support of allied parties in the Lok Sabha. wikipedia. When they start getting jittery the end will begin to come. The countdown has begun. 10,9...      

Anything may happen.

"The US 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in 24 years on Thursday (1 October)," as "It rose to as high as 5.342%, surpassing its 2007 peak, and hitting its highest since 2002." Reuters. "French 10-year bond yields have also hit their highest levels since 2002, Britain's 30-year borrowing costs have touched 6% for the first time since 1998 and Japanese bond yields are at multi-decade peaks." "It adds to concerns about governments' rising borrowing and spending needs. The US debt pile has topped $40 trillion, while debt as a share of economic output is at or above 100% across the G7 group of major economies, bar Germany." "Bond yields set the tone for borrowing costs across economies, from government debt to mortgages to student and car loans." Reuters. "Eurozone inflation surged more than expected in September," as "Inflation in the 21 nations sharing the euro currency jumped to 3.8% in September from 3.2% a month earlier, exceeding expectations for a 3.6% in a Reuters poll." However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, accelerated to 2.5% from 2.4%. Reuters. This might allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to wait and watch before deciding on interest rate. In its last meeting in August, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth successive time. Mint. But, the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the borrowing cost by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% last month. Higher interest rates in the US, EU and Japan would increase returns and be an incentive for funds to divert their investments to these markets from riskier emerging markets. Already, "India faces a stiff challenge to attract capital flows as the global investment landscape is being reshaped by the artificial intelligence boom, renewed manufacturing ambitions in developed economies and the increasing weaponisation of global supply chains, according to the India Monthly Economic Review." ET. "Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) stepped up selling in Indian equities on 30 September, offloading Rs 101.4841 billion, their biggest single-day outflow in nearly six months." "Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), meanwhile, bought Rs 112.7173 billion, according to the NSE's combined FII/FPI and DII cash-market data." MC. Pressure on bond yields eased somewhat after, "the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.3% in August after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July. Core PCE inflation increased 3.0% year-on-year in August after a downwardly revised 3.0% advance in July." ET. "The US economy added 29,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported, well below economists' estimate of 90,000." Unemployment edged slightly higher to 4.2% from 4.1%. ET. The Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review for September 2026 expects the economy to grow 7.3% in the second quarter (July-September). "Interest rates in the developed world are rising sharply...and this will spill over into domestic yields. It also expects cross-border capital flows to slow, as higher rates persuade investors to stay in their home markets amid rising global uncertainty." ET. Already, yield on India 10-year government bonds jumped from 6.944 on 8 September to 7.209 on 1 October. in.investing.com. A lot of problems could be solved if the RBI increased its policy rate by at least 50 basis points, which would restore the premium with US rates, tempt foreign investors to return, stop the rupee from falling and reduce imported inflation. Will the RBI do it? Definitely not. The government has a fanatical belief that low interest rates increase economic growth, which gives bragging rights and helps in elections. What happens if problems mount? Just ignore them. It's called "Ram Bharose' (depend on Lord Ram). Will it work? Probably not, but may confuse people. Then claim anything. Confuse them more. Great.

The millions that matter.

Economist Ruchir Sharma ranks 50 emerging and frontier economies. India's score is somewhere in the middle and his favorite line is, "India is a country that consistently disappoints the optimist and the pessimist." ET. According to the M3M Hurun India Rich List 2026, India "has created more than two new billionaires a month for three years running." "According to the list, the combined wealth of the people featured in the rich list stood at Rs 187.5 trillion or $1.96 trillion, which is more than the GDP of countries like Turkiye ($1.64 trillion), Switzerland ($1.15 trillion) and Singapore ($0.66 trillion) among others." However, "To put it in perspective, according to the IMF, India's GDP per capita is $2,813, compared with Singapore's $1,07,760." Mint. "In nearly 250 districts, more than 25% youth (15-29 age group) are neither engaged in any productive work, nor are they pursuing education or any sort of training for work, highlighting a gap in human capital utilisation." "A recent Niti Aayog report pegged the number of NEET (not in employment, education or training) youth in the country at nearly 90 million." TOI. In addition to the chronically unemployed, "Thousands of jobs have been cut across India's global capability center (GCC) ecosystem this year as parent companies push for AI-led efficiencies and tighter workforce structures, even as their Indian units take on bigger technology and product mandates." GCCs employ around 2.4-2.5 million people in more than 2,100 centers. MC. "In India, approximately 8 to 15 million students graduate each year. Yet only 8.5% find jobs that match their qualifications and skills." "It is difficult to ignore the paradox: millions spend years pursuing higher education, but only a fraction eventually enter professions connected to what they studied." ET. "The engineering talent market faces a growing mismatch between candidate supply and hiring demand, with entry level job seekers accounting for 45% of the pool against the requirement of just 28%, a report said." ET. "India requires Rs 168-172 trillion of infrastructure investment through FY31, with Rs 70-80 trillion yet to translate into announced project pipeline, according to a joint report by the National Bank of Financing Infrastructure and Development (NaBFID) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG)." ET. Although 70% of India's electricity comes from coal, "A decade ago India's installed renewable energy capacity was barely 4GW. It now makes up 300GW or 54% of its total 552GW installed capacity - a target that has been achieved five years ahead of schedule." Perhaps too fast because "a bulk of the clean energy that was produced in India was wasted because the country's transmission lines have been dogged by missed targets, with one out of four inter-state projects facing delays of over a year." BBC. "India needs nothing short of 12 million new non-farm jobs annually." "Recent National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data, including its 2024 report, show that (i) unemployed persons form a large category among suicide victims; (ii) student suicides have risen; and (iii) a substantial share of suicide victims were Class 10, Class 12 and higher education students," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida. Billionaires are fine. What about the millions?        

Disbelief creates heroes.

"Inside dense forests of Rajasthan's Baran," "Sahariya women are transitioning from low-wage forest foraging to managing automated packaging units, supplying local produce to a guaranteed institutional market set to achieve an annual target worth Rs 80 million." "The initiative was conceptualised soon after IAS Balmukund Asawa joined as Baran district collector around 6 months ago and visited tribal villages in the Shahabad area of the district." ET. IAS stands for Indian Administrative Service which controls all government administration of the Central and state governments. wikipedia. The IAS is a continuation of the British Indian Civil Service (ICS) which was created by the Government of India Act 1858 and which "transferred the administration of India from the East India Company to the British Crown. Under Crown rule, the ICS emerged as what contemporaries and historians alike called the steel frame of British administration." Pubadmin.Institute. "Among the thousands of civil servants who keep India's vast government machinery running, a small number become unlikely public figures every few years." Recently, the commissioner of Maharashtra's Food and Drug Administration Tukaram Mundhe "has led a series of enforcement drives" in which "His team have inspected restaurants and other food businesses, uncovering pest infestations, poor hygiene and expired food." "These actions have made Mundhe a social-media celebrity." "But why are these officers treated as heroes for doing their jobs?" BBC. In Bengaluru, raids on hotels led to the seizure of 132 kg of various types of rotten meat, fish, vegetables and 15 kg of cooking oil. HT. Why has Mundhe become a hero? Because people have suddenly realized that these establishments were serving rotten food because they were not expecting any objection. It means that they could have been doing this for years, maybe decades, with complete impunity. It means previous officers must have been lazy or corrupt. And, it also means that an unknown number of people must have fallen sick, maybe even died, from rotten food. IAS officers curry favor with politicians, are indifferent to the poor and often fudge figures. "Secretaries to the states, who belong to the IAS, often collude with the junior staff, and don't honestly report figures on hunger deaths, malnutrition and usage of toilets, leading to an erosion of accountability," wrote NC Saxena. "Most (IAS) officers assume the trappings of feudal grandeur much like their colonial predecessors but without their efficiency, commitment, or impartiality. Their 'power' props begin with their massive office revolving chairs, with the mandatory white towel - changed regularly - draped over the back for reasons unknown." "These worthless, ironically known as public servant, are largely inaccessible to common people who obsequiously line up outside for redressal of their grievances, sometimes waiting the entire day without getting to see the 'sahib'," wrote Amit Cowshish. Prof Kaushik Basu was the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India from 2009-2012. wikipedia. "The use of the word, sir, is very common in Indian officialdom." A senior official, he counted, was saying sir "on average 16 times a minute (there was a minister present)." BBC. 'Chamcha' (sycophant) to a minister; arrogant, uncaring and mendacious with the people. Why do we create a hero of someone doing what they are paid enormously for? It's disbelief. Used to the rot.

AI can't mine fuel.

Earlier this month, "the G-20 finance ministers' gathering comes to a close amid a global bond-market selloff, spats over tariffs, public insults and fighting over a group photo." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that "meetings were productive, tackling trade imbalances, artificial intelligence and sovereign debt." WSJ. "public insults and fighting over a group photo" - how childish can you get? And, these are the leaders of the top 20 nations on earth! Terrifying. There were serious issues to argue over. Eight days ago, "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vice President Adam Shapiro wrote, "We're seeing a pivotal shift in the US economy: investment is shifting away from residential investment and towards computers." "Hyperscaler capital expenditures are expected to reach about $916 billion over the next 12 months and nearly $1.2 trillion the following year." Yahoo. In July, Anthropic disclosed that its AI model Claude obtained internet access on three occasions. "In all three incidents, Claude had been tasked with a capture-the-flag challenge." "In all cases, Anthropic's evaluation prompts specified to Claude that its environment was a simulation and that it had no internet access." But, "when Claude's search led it to real systems on the open internet, it treated them as part of the exercise." Anthrop\c. "It sounds like something from a sci-fi movie," but "it happened this summer, when the tech company Hugging Face detected an attack on its systems. The attacker stole data and performed other unauthorized activity over several days." "Independent research groups found that hundreds of OpenAI agents conspired to attack Hugging Face." OpenAI is best for its chatbot ChatGPT. PBS. Sounds like a rape of poor Hugging Face. "A rogue OpenAI agent hacked an Australian government website in June and accessed private data in what experts say is the first known case of its kind in the world." "OpenAI said it only learnt of the breach in August," and alerted the Australian government on 10 September. Naturally Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese found it "obviously unacceptable." BBC. Three days ago, "OpenAI has acknowledged that it alerted "dozens of global institutions that their websites may have been meddled with by its AI bots acting improperly." Including, "the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Census Bureau and Education Department, the company said." BBC. "OpenAI will not release its new model - GPT-6.1 Astra - due to safety concerns, the ChatGPT-maker confirmed." BBC. "Artificial intelligence could kill the entire human species, according to people in the artificial intelligence industry. Specifically, they say, it could exterminate humanity within the decade." CNN. "Top AI leaders including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic boss Dario Amodei have urged the industry to slow the pace of development due to concerns about risks associated with the technology." Could it be a case of: "AI is a deadly poison but only we have the antidote, so give us more money?" "Today electricity consumption from data centers is estimated to amount to around 415 terawatt hours (TWh), or about 1.5% of global electricity consumption in 2024." Electricity consumption is expected to double to reach around 945 TWh by 2030. iea.org. Its voracious need for electricity makes it vulnerable to a blackout. Rogue AI may be able to get control of nuclear weapons or design a new bio-weapon by hacking into secure systems, it cannot get out of servers. Electricity plants need fuel and fuels have to be mined, which AI can't do. So create a system in which fuel supplies can be switched off and AI will die. In the worst case scenario.         

Approver will be approved.

"Three days ago, the Election Commission of India had a straightforward answer to The Indian Express investigation into how the three member body was functioning. Two of its members had recorded objections at least 14 times to decisions touching the core of the Commission's mandate: who gets registered as a voter, who gets deleted or restored, who appeals against those restorations, and who controls the system through which the electoral roll is maintained." The Election Commission of India (ECI) has three members, headed by Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar, and including Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi. The ECI is conducting a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) to weed out ineligible voters. The report by the Express has "created a furore, with opposition members demanding Kumar's resignation," accusing him of "manipulating voters' list to favor Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during elections." BBC. Gyanesh Kumar is a retired Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer (wikipedia) as was Mr TN Seshan who was the CEC from 12 December 1990 to 11 December 1996 (wikipedia). Till today, Mr Seshan is seen as a "legend" who "is credited with effectively implementing the model code of conduct for the first time, reining in money and muscle power during elections, filing cases and arresting candidates for not abiding by polling rules, and suspending officials for aligning with candidates." The Print. The ECI was created in March 1949, Sukumar Sen was appointed the first CEC in March 1950 and the first general elections were held in India between 21 October 1951 and 21 February 1952. wikipedia. "Hardly any post-colonial country that won independence in the mid-twentieth century can boast of having avoided a spell of military rule. The malaise was far worse in South Asia where the countries and the military shared heritage and history with colonial India." India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru was instrumental in keeping the Indian army under civilian control. TT. Which meant submitting to elections every five years. "More than 120 million names have reportedly been deleted from electoral rolls. That is roughly 12.4% of the 970 million registered electorate around the 2024 election. The gap between the BJP-led NDA and the opposition was just 2%. Gyanesh Kumar isn't conducting elections. He is scripting them," wrote Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) founder Abhijeet Dipke on X. "It's time folks. It's time. And Gyanesh bro. It's done bro," quipped CJP spokesperson Saurav Das. HT. The BJP most likely does not trust Gen Z. "The annual summary revision of electoral rolls, an exercise  that facilitates the inclusion of 18-year-olds into the rolls has been delayed past its May-June announcement deadline for the year 2026-27 due to a lack of consensus between CEC Gyanesh Kumar and the two election commissioners." The Wire. Assembly elections to important states of Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttar Pradesh are to be held in February-March 2027. wikipedia. Elimination of Gen Z voters could improve chances for the BJP. Even worse, people may be losing their fear of the BJP attack dogs. "Congress MP Rahul Gandhi...alleged with '100% certainty' that elections in India including the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, were being rigged and demanded immediate resignation of CEC Gyanesh Kumar." ET. "Mr Gyanesh Kumar should think seriously about the position he is in, and he should turn an approver. That would be an act of nationalism," urged Mr Gandhi. An 'approver' is one who confesses to a crime and provides testimony against others involved. Dictionary. Will Gyanesh Kumar resign? Absolutely not. That would take character, self respect, shame. Sadly, these qualities are lacking in this government. And in the officials it chooses. Comfort in numbers.       

Yield to the bonds.

On 15 August 2025, "Ask almost any economist and they will tell you," that US President Donald Trump's "tariffs and crackdown on immigrants risk a return of 1970s-esque 'stagflation', when a sudden oil shock prompted stagnant growth and spiraling prices, except this time the crisis would be self-inflicted." "But after a busy few weeks of company updates, data on jobs and inflation, we still don't really know." BBC. The Iran war's economic ripple-effects, spike in inflation, job market wobbles and a sharp decline in consumer confidence "now risk pushing the economy toward stagflation - a combination of high inflation and weak growth," wrote Roger W Ferguson Jr. However, even though economic growth is down to 2.1% in 2025, "Among the Group of Seven nations, the US recorded the strongest growth." cfr.org. Yield on the 30-year US Treasury "rose as much as 5 basis points (bps) to 5.53%." "The 10-year note's yield also reached a multi-year high exceeding 5.22%." MC. India's economy is not linked to that of the US, we have a separate currency and a different central bank. But, "Rising global borrowing costs and elevated oil prices extended Indian government bonds' losing streak to a sixth week," as "The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield rose 1 bp to 7.1194%...about 36 bps over six weeks." ET. This means an increase in the cost of borrowing for the government. "Govt will raise nearly Rs 7.9 trillion from securities in the second half of this fiscal year, reducing the total borrowing for the current financial year by Rs 1,204.94 billion." TOI. Multiplying an insignificant 36 bps by 7.9 trillion is a lot of money. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury is the highest in 22 years and the 10-year yield is the highest since 2007. "And when the world's benchmark bond starts offering investors a much higher return, the effects can travel from Washington to Mumbai, affecting the rupee, India government bonds and the RBI's room to maneuver." "An Indian bond, for instance, has to offer enough additional return over a US Treasury to compensate investors for the extra risks of holding an emerging market asset, including currency risk." ET. "FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) outflows from India have crossed Rs 1.51 trillion in 2026 as foreign investors shift money to relatively cheaper global markets. Rising US bond yields, a weaker rupee, higher crude oil prices and expensive Indian stock valuations are the main reasons behind this trend." Bajaj Finserve. "The rupee is likely to remain in the Rs 94.5-96 per US dollar range in the near term, with large dollar inflows through FCNR deposits and external commercial borrowings (ECBs) failing to translate into commensurate appreciation." "The rupee has depreciated by around 28%, moving from an average of Rs 74.44 per dollar in January 2022 to Rs 95.47 in August 2026." In the same period, the yen depreciated by 30%, the Indonesian rupiah by 24% and the South Korean won by 17%. ET. Between 2015 and 2025, FIIs have been net sellers in nine out of the 11 years and net buyers in just two - 2019 and 2022. On the other hand, domestic investors (DIIs) have been net buyers in 10 out of the 11 years, often by amounts much higher than FII selling. Moneyvesta. Thus domestic buying increases the price of stocks, giving greater returns to FIIs when they sell, while the RBI's support for the rupee gives them more dollars in exchange when they repatriate their profits. Despite all these gifts the US government and the Federal Reserve may, most likely will, continue to create problems for us. We are tied to their bonds. We have to yield.