Luxurious black.

"The Bharat Progress Report 2025-26, released by the NXT Foundation, highlights India's rapid economic and technological growth over the year," and "underscores that India became the world's fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan with a nominal GDP of about $4.18 trillion." "The country's now on course to become the third-largest economy in the world." ZNews. It may already have attained that level if the shadow economy, known as 'Black Money', is added to the nation's GDP. German economist "Friedrich Schneider places the shadow economy at roughly 23% of GDP in India," while others estimate it at more than 40% of GDP. Real estate is the largest store of hidden wealth, as well as gold, corporate structures and informal transfers. Agricultural income is largely free of income tax. Bajaj Finserve. The top 10% receive 58% of national income, while the top 1% receive about 23%. The top 1% hold 40% of national wealth and the top 10% hold two-thirds. HT. The addition of Black Money increases the wealth at the top and makes the rest poorer by comparison. "India's luxury housing segment has expanded sharply over the past four years, with luxury homes now forming 27% of the country's overall residential supply, up from 16% in 2021, according to data from Magicbricks." MC. Construction of more luxury housing means fewer affordable housing for the vast majority of the population. Alongside, India's luxury car market is expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.16% and is estimated to grow from $1.44 billion in 2025 to $1.52 billion in 2026 and $1.96 billion in 2031. Mordor Intelligence. At Independence, India "adopted an import-substituting industrialization (ISI) economic strategy that assigned the commanding heights of the economy to the State." Economic liberalization was forced on us in 1991 when India had to pledge 47 tons of gold with the Bank of England and 20 tons with the Union Bank of Switzerland to deal with the balance of payments crisis. wikipedia. However, relatively higher tariffs continued to protect Indian industry so that, "Indian companies continued to serve the hapless Indian consumer rather than export. As a result, Indian manufacturing still lags in scale, quality, branding and innovation." With no competition, India spends roughly 0.6% on R&D, while "South Korea spends over 4%, Japan above 3%, Germany around 2.6% and China above 2% of GDP on R&D," wrote Janmejaya Sinha. With manufacturing at 13% of GDP, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, "queues outside visa application centers for Gulf countries in Delhi show little sign of slowing, with many workers saying economic compulsions leave them little choice but to travel to the restive regions." TOI. If you do not innovate, you plagiarize. And so, "An Indian university has courted controversy at the AI summit in Delhi after an official claimed that a Chinese-made robotic dog was its own invention." BBC. There is no guarantee that increased spending on R&D will produce a game-changing product that will generate wealth. Enjoy black money. Buy a Chinese robot dog.       

Foreigners to decide.

"Iran has allowed two Indian-flagged liquefied petroleum gas carriers to sail through the Strait of Hormuz,..a rare exception to the Iranian blockade that has disrupted global energy supplies." "Shivalik and Nanda Devi are owned by state-run Shipping Corp of India." "India consumed 33.15 million metric tons of cooking gas last year, with imports accounting for about 60% of demand. About 90% of these imports came from the Middle East." Reuters. "India's external balance and government finances could be hit if oil prices stay high for an extended period,..as the Iran war pushes up oil import costs and the subsidies needed to keep key commodities available." Reuters. Subsidies promised by political parties to win elections have already reached gargantuan proportions. "After coming to power in 2014, Mr Modi has expanded India's welfare programs," and "Giant posters of Mr Modi promoting these schemes as his personal 'guarantees' dominate the landscape." "Mr Modi says his government has spent more than Rs 34 trillion ($400 billion) in the past decade, delivering direct cash benefits to low-income households and reaching over 900 million people." BBC. May be a serious understatement. In a study, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) found that "The Union government spent Rs 6.33 trillion on subsidies and transfers in 2023-24, up from Rs 2.76 trillion in 2018-19, a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21%." And "unconditional transfers have grown at 28.8% annually since 2018-19 and projected to reach Rs 4.14 trillion in 2025-26." Besides, "dozens of schemes, pensions, loan waivers, investment promotion subsidies and electricity shortfalls are simply not classified as subsidies,' wrote Aditya Sinha. In a handout to 73.7 formal sector workers, the interest rate for the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) has been fixed at 8.25% for the third year in a row, wrote Ahjit Ranade. This is 300 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy rate which was cut by 125 basis points to 5.25% in 2025 (ET). The interest on EPF forms a floor for interest rates of fixed income instruments and prevents lower borrowing costs. In another handout, Dearness Allowance for government employees is increased twice a year in line with the rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation and has reached a colossal 60% of basic salary (ET) even though 95% of government employees are paid five times more than in the private sector, according to development economist Karthik Muralidharan. Assam is to hold elections to its assembly by April 2026 (wikipedia) and has announced Rs 9,000 cash transfers to 4 million families under its 'Orunodoi) scheme (ET). The central government has collected over Rs 40 trillion in taxes on petrol and diesel since 2014-15. ppac.gov.in. If the price of oil stays high for some months what will the government do? Cutting subsidies may lose elections, which would be unacceptable to Mr Modi, and increasing the retail price of fuel will increase the cost of transport and raise prices across the board, cut consumption, discourage investment and weaken the rupee even further. Will Mr Modi be held responsible by the people? Our government practices the most severe form of censorship in the world (BBC). And a large section of the population has been brainwashed into 'Bhakts' (devotees) (DH) and live in a state of altered reality. Foreigners know the truth. Our fate is in their hands. A helpless nation.   

Remember Alexander.

"US President Donald Trump said American forces carried out a powerful bombing raid on Ian's strategic Kharg Island, claiming that every military target on the island was destroyed and warned that its vital oil infrastructure could be targeted next." "Energy researchers say Kharg Island is central to Iran's economic survival." India Today. In his first term Trump did not start any war although he may have authorized bombing of targets in Syria and Yemen. Reuters. Almost always critical of anything Trump does, Reuters forgets to mention that Trump's peace deals far outweigh any limited bombing he may have sanctioned. Known as 'Abraham Accords', Trump facilitated a "series of agreements to normalize relations" between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. "Kazakhstan's government announced in November 2025 that it would accede to the agreement," and Sudan is unable to ratify because of a civil war. Britannica. Serious discussions were underway to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel  (Britannica), which, according to a Wall Street Journal report, was sabotaged by the most barbaric, perverted attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023 (Times of Israel). "Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) worked with Hamas to plan its 7 October 2023 surprise attack on southern Israel and gave the green light for Hamas to launch the assault at a meeting on 2 October. Over 1,000 civilians were murdered and around 200 taken hostage. wikipedia. Over 70,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have died in Israeli bombing of Gaza since then. wikipedia. Hamas could have stopped the bombing at any moment by releasing the hostages but used every death as a propaganda opportunity. Treating their own people and children as disposable while hiding in tunnels like worms. In response to over 200 rockets fired by the Hezbollah, Israel has carried out intensive bombing of the south of the country and and Beirut's southern suburbs, "a Hezbollah stronghold from which thousands of people have fled". BBC. After relentless bombing of Iran, Trump said that the US has "practically nothing left to target". ET. Yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that "over 15,000 enemy targets have been struck, which is more than 1,000 a day since the war began on Feb. 28. PBS. Now is the time to let Iranians finish the job. Perhaps contact the regular Iranian Army to take command and wipe out the IRGC and Basij thugs. The people should see it as their own victory. After all, Alexander may be considered Great by the West but Iranians see him as an uncivilized marauder who plundered and burnt the great city of Persepolis. BBC. If Trump can establish a peaceful government in Iran he may also be considered 'Great'. What an intense heartburn that could cause. Worth waiting for. 

It's not oil.

"India's external balance and government finances could be hit if oil prices stay for an extended period," as India "imports nearly 90% of its crude requirement and about 50% of its gas requirements." "A prolonged crisis could widen the country's current account deficit, weaken the rupee and stoke inflation, the government said," and "This concern has pushed the rupee to a record low and forced the central bank to sell dollars from its reserves." Reuters. In fact, the rupee has been weakening from long before the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 which caused the current rise in the price of oil. wikipedia. Since 2014, when Mr Narendra Modi first became prime minister (wikipedia) the rupee fell from 62.33 against the dollar to 88.72 in 2025, a depreciation of 42.33% (bookmyforex.com). One dollar buys Rs 92.38 this morning. xe.com. " Foreign investors have sold about $4 billion of Indian equities in January, adding to nearly $19 billion outflows last year. Corporate hedging demand has also weighed on the currency." Reuters. Blaming the current rise in the price of oil is deceiving because historically prices have been higher in the past. Brent crude is selling at $100.6 per barrel today (oilprice.com) but had risen to a high of $111.26 in 2011, $111.57 in 2012 and $108.56 in 2013 (macrotrends), dropping sharply to $53.03 in 2015 and $45.13 in 2016, during this government's tenure. But, while Indians were able to buy petrol at Rs 63.77 per liter in 2011 and Rs 68.57 in 2012, the retail price jumped to Rs 78.52 per liter in 2018 and has been over Rs 95 since 2021 as the government has increased taxes instead of passing on the benefits of lower prices to consumers (cleartax.in). If the government passes on the increase to consumers it will immediately raise transport costs and cause inflation and if it lowers taxes to keep the retail price of petrol at the same level the government will have to increase borrowing to plug the gap in revenue. In 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 125 basis points to 5.25% (ddnews.gov.in) but yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds is at 6.677% this morning (in.investing.com). On 09 March, the RBI bought Rs 1 trillion worth of government bonds through open market operations to increase liquidity in banks and bring down borrowing costs but the yield on 10-bonds rose to 6.78% before closing at 6.72%. Mint. On top of selling dollars and buying government bonds the RBI has been paying rising record amounts of dividends to the government. It paid Rs 1.02,000 in 2023-24, Rs 2,10,874 in 2024-25 (panoplexa.com) and another record Rs 2.70 trillion last year (Mint). Naturally, the government has asked for Rs 3.16 trillion in this year's budget. MC. So, where has the money gone? Not to oil. As yet. 

Cost of freedom.

 Even though Ali Khamenei opposed the elevation of his son Mojtaba Khamenei to the post of Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) forced his appointment because he is likely to back their hardline agenda. TOI. After their horrific crimes against the people any loss of power will mean brutal revenge against them and their families. Yesterday US President Donald Trump said the US has "practically nothing left to target" in Iran. ET. This is the right time when the US and Israel should let Iranians earn their freedom by completely ridding their country of every branch of the regime. The US should remember that gifted freedom is inherently unstable. In 2003, the US invaded and easily defeated Saddam Hussein's army in Iraq (wikipedia) but this was quickly followed by the emergence of Al Qaeda, which spread over into Syria, and a decade of extremely bloody terrorist attacks ensued (Britannica). Even after the defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq, "Over one million people remain internally displaced," and "the government has struggled to achieve the demobilization and integration of powerful Shiite militias, which formed during the fight against the Islamic State." cfr.org. Not learning from Iraq, the US and NATO illegally used a UN resolution to impose a 'No-Fly Zone' over Libya (press.un.org), ostensibly to protect civilians, to attack Moummar Gaddafi, resulting in his capture and murder by rebel forces in 2011 (wikipedia). Even after 15 years Libya remains a divided country with clashes between different armed groups. news.un.org. On the other hand, Vietnam won its war against the US at the cost of over 3 million lives (Britannica) which ended in a panic- stricken flight by the US in 1975 (wikipedia), Vietnam has been stable since then and has a booming economy with the GDP growing 8.02% in 2025 and GDP per capita at about $5,026 (Vietnam Briefing), higher than that of India's at $3,005 (IMF). In Afghanistan, following Soviet occupation in 1979, the US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia supported the Afghan Mujahideen with billions of dollars forcing the Soviet Union to withdraw in 1989. wikipedia. A civil war followed, leading to Osama bin Laden and the 9/11 attacks in 2001 (wikipedia). The US occupied Afghanistan but was forced to flee in 2021 by the Taliban, leaving behind $7 billion worth of armament. CBS. Afghanistan has been stable ever since. The time is right for the US and Israel to supply guns to young Iranians so that they can fight the IRGC and the Basij thugs, but only to Shia Persians, and never, under any circumstances, to Kurds or Arabs, Sunnis or Christians. US and Israeli special forces can help by targeting the regime's arms depots but the ultimate victory must be seen to be that of the Iranian people. As soon as victory is achieved, quickly lift sanctions, bring in food and medicines, arrange loans to the central bank to stabilize the currency and help the economy to grow. A stable and peaceful Iran will be fantastic for the Middle East, the world and, especially Iranians. It will come from freedom. But, only if it is earned.

Incomplete reserves.

 "India will not participate in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) proposal to release strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to stabilize global oil markets," because "The crisis (that led to a rise in prices) is not our creation. Those responsible have to deal with it and create situations to ease (prices)." India will continue to export refined fuels as we have "reasonably" comfortable stocks of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel. TOI. On the other hand, "India allocated Rs 58.76 billion for this financial year to fill and expand its SPR but is expected to spend only Rs 10.39 billion of it - and has budgeted a mere Rs 2 billion for next year - leaving emergency stockpiles partially empty and expansion plans stalled, Budget documents show." SPR capacity is about two-thirds full and "The government's oft-cited figure of 9.5 days of crude cover from SPR assumes the caverns are full and is based on 2019-20 consumption figures." HT. Lying their heads off, aren't they?. "The Donald Trump administration of the United States yet again called India 'good actors' after 'permitting' New Delhi to buy Russian oil amid the West Asian crisis." DH. Yes Massa (dictionary). Much obliged. "The US has earlier claimed that India had stopped buying Russian oil as part of the trade deal that reduced tariffs on exports to Washington." "For India, which imports most of its oil, the combination of soaring crude prices, a weakening rupee and falling equity markets represents a triple shock." If the conflict drags on, "the impact could extend beyond financial markets into inflation, fiscal balances, corporate earnings and economic growth." ET. Inflation is under control because of weak domestic demand and soft commodity prices. Even so, "The rupee, the worst-performing Asian currency, has tumbled 9% against the dollar. This has happened even with the greenback losing ground elsewhere." "Additionally, nine million Indians work in the Persian Gulf, providing critical remittances," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The reality is that, "Even as tensions escalate across West Asia, queues outside visa application centers for Gulf countries in Delhi show little sign of slowing, with many workers saying that economic compulsions leave them little choice." ET. "Without money we will die here as well," said Dilip Yadav from Bihar. "The dual petroleum dependency: Indian households now depend on Petroleum products for both cooking (LPG) and transport (petrol, diesel, fares). Together LPG + Conveyance account for 7.5-10.2% of monthly budgets," said Shamika Ravi. That is one-tenth of monthly expense. A comparison of household monthly consumption with total income from the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) showed that 26.4% spent more than what they earned, wrote Abhishek Jha & Roshan Kishore. No reserves with the government, no reserves with households. Exposed by the conflict.    

Looks like scorched earth.

"A small coral island in the Persian Gulf," - "Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran's crude oil exports and remains untouched despite an expanding military campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure." "Subsea pipelines connect the island to major oilfields in southern Iran. Long jetties stretch into deep water to allow supertankers to load crude, while large storage tanks and worker housing cover much of the island's southern area." ET. Two days back, Israel hit fuel depots in Tehran, releasing a cloud of toxic smoke "that unleashed black rainfall dozens of miles away," making it difficult for people to breathe and fires to burn for hours. Time. However, not even a madman would ever contemplate touching Kharg Island, which would immediately block oil suppliers from Iraq, Kuwait and even Saudi Arabia  (maps), resulting in such an upsurge in oil prices that the global economy, including that of the US, will collapse. India is particularly vulnerable. "India imports 50% of its dense energy, whether it is in the form of oil, gas, fertilizer," and "Every dollar per barrel is about 1.8 billion a year. If there is a $50 increase in oil prices, we are talking about $90 billion of impact," said Neelkanth Mishra. Already, "The Indian rupee slipped to its all-time low yesterday (92.3350 against the dollar)," despite intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). ET. The weaker the rupee, the higher the cost of imported oil. In addition to selling dollars to support the rupee the RBI sought to buy government bonds worth Rs 1 trillion, despite a surplus of Rs 5 trillion in liquidity as of 27 February, to force government borrowing costs down. Traders weren't buying it. Yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds rose to 6.78% before closing at 6.72%. HT. Naturally, Indian stock markets fell. Yesterday, ""The BSE Sensex plunged more than 1,300 points and settled at 77, 566, while Nifty 50 slipped 422 points to touch 24,028. Investors lost over Rs 12 trillion in a day." NDTV. This government is directly responsible. Despite allocating Rs 58.76 billion to fill out strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), the government spent only Rs 10.39 billion, reduced imports of cheap Russian oil to please the US, increased taxes on petrol when oil prices were low and, while forcing 20% ethanol mix in petrol, did not pass on the lower costs to consumers. The Wire. Since 2015, the government has extorted over Rs 40 trillion from higher taxes on fuel. ppac.gove.in. Plunder citizens through higher taxes and then buy votes with cash handouts just before elections. Before the recent Bihar elections Prime Minister Narendra Modi transferred Rs 10,000 into bank accounts of 7.5 million women at a cost of Rs 75 billion. NDTV. The BJP-led Mahayuti won the 2026 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election (wikipedia) with a scheme to distribute Rs 18,000 per year to every woman from 21 to 65 years of age (cleartax.in). This is expected to add Rs 360-460 billion, or over 5% of the state's total expenditure, to the state's budget. So a minister proposed chopping down teak plantations to raise Rs 120 billion to plug the shortfall, wrote Ajit Ranade. Naturally, the BJP's election spending is more than double of its closest rival. DH. A party led by a man totally obsessed with staying in power no matter what the cost to the nation. This seems to be scorched earth policy (wikipedia). Sadly, they'll not burn. Only we will.