Bowing to foreigners.

"India's retail inflation accelerated to 4.38% in June as elevated food and fuel prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and concern over an uneven monsoon kept price pressure firm. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading breached the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium term inflation target of 4% after 17 months." "Retail food inflation stood at 5.32% in June compared with 4.78% in May." And "Transport inflation accelerated to 4.31% in May." ET. In March, "India's federal government...retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2%-6%, according to an official notification. The target will remain in place for five years." Reuters. "India's wholesale inflation quickened to 9.87% in June from 9.68% in May" driven by food, mineral oils, basic materials and chemicals and chemical products. ET. Near double digit increase in input costs will feed into the broader economy. Transport inflation is waiting. "Much commentary on the West Asia crisis has focused on what consumers pay at the pump," but "Fuel costs for fleet operators, raw material costs for small manufacturers, and gas prices for processing units have risen substantially. Some has been passed on. A meaningful part has not." "At household-level the impact is not yet visible." "When it does, second-order effects begin to show up. Household budgets will face pressure, discretionary consumption could soften." DH. In June, the RBI projected CPI inflation at 5.1% for the financial year 2026-27, from its earlier forecast of 4.6% (DH) but chose to hold its interest rate at 5.25%. Despite its mandate of targeting 4%, the RBI's recent record indicates that it actually set itself a target of 6% for its monetary policy. Starting October 2019, the inflation rate was well above 4% till February 2025, falling to a low of 0.4% in October, before starting to accelerate from February 2026. rateinflation.com. The RBI brazenly held its interest rate at 4% from May 2020 to May 2022 (shriram- finance.in) even as inflation was raging at above 7% and was forced to act in panic after the US Federal Reserve started hiking its Funds Rate aggressively from May 2022 (Forbes). "India's exports rose 15.5% year-on-year ton $40.41 billion in June, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $30.43 billion," because '"crude oil imports jumped 40% to $19.32 billion during the month, the country's overall merchandise imports in June went up by about 31% to $70.84 billion." DH. "India's exports to the US dipped 1.21% to USD 8.17 billion in June, while imports grew 33.86% year-on-year to USD 5.5 billion, according to government data." ET. Our exports to the US fell even as "US consumer spending accelerate in May even as prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years, suggesting Americans are powering through the fallout from the Iran war." ET. High inflation should push bond yields higher but "India's long bond yields have stayed remarkably placid through it all. Part of the explanation is deliberate engineering." The RBI has allowed banks to offer higher interest rates on non-resident foreign currency (FCNR) accounts while the government has scrapped withholding and capital gains tax on foreign holders of government bonds, hoping to draw over $50 billion from overseas and ease the pressure on the rupee. This will help the RBI not to increase interest rates. Meanwhile, household debt has risen to 45.5% of GDP, of which 58.4% is comprised of credit cards, personal loans and gold loans. "The biggest beneficiary of this low-rate regime is not the stressed household. It is the biggest borrower in the room, the government." "Signs of rising defaults in the small loans segment aren't surprising," wrote Ajit Ranade. Is the RBI the Reserve Bank of India - for Indians, - the cooperative bank for the government or the private bank for the BJP? Indians would like to know why we are borrowing to survive? Enemy within? 

Intelligence is the key.

On 11 July, "The US military said it hit 140 Iranian military targets in its third round of strikes this week, following an attack on a merchant ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it fired a warning shot at a ship and declared the waterway closed." CNN. In response, "US President Donald Trump yesterday declared a resumption of the American blockade on Iranian ports, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and saying Washington would be 'reimbursed' for doing so to the tune of 20% on all cargo traversing the passageway. Meanwhile, Iran shot at two ships attempting to cross the strait, and American airstrikes reportedly killed two people in southwestern Iran." The Times of Israel. In 2025, "The Israeli military said it has accumulated in recent months intelligence showing that 'concrete progress' had been made 'in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb', including a uranium metal core and a neutron source initiator for triggering the nuclear explosion." One Kelsey Davenport said that "some of Iran's activities would be applicable to developing a bomb, but US intelligence agencies had assessed that Iran was not engaged in key weaponisation work." BBC. It is a fact that Israel's intelligence from within Iran is far superior to what the US can achieve. On 31 July 2024, the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an IRGC guesthouse after attending the inauguration ceremony of the present President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian. "Wasim 'Abu Anas' Abu Shabaan, Hnaiyeh's personal aide and bodyguard was also killed." According to one report, the assassination was carried out by Mossad agents on the ground. wikipedia. On 13 June 2025, Israeli jets "descended on Tehran in an operation they called 'Red Wedding'." "Hours later and 1,000 miles away (from Israel) Iran's top military commanders were dead." "The combination of intelligence information and military precision that enabled the attack surprised people around the world." "Another key part of the initial attack - considered so fantastic by even its planners that it was called 'Operation Narnia' after the fictional CS Lewis series -successfully killed nine top Iranian nuclear scientists almost simultaneously in their homes in Tehran." WSJ. "For years, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was little more than a name in classified reports." He was believed to be the mastermind behind Iran's plans to acquire a nuclear weapon, called 'Project Amad'. "On 27 November 2018, Fakhrizadeh was traveling with his wife and bodyguards toward their villa in the town of Absard, east of Tehran." "Waiting by the roadside was a pickup truck, seemingly abandoned. Hidden within it, was a 7.62 mm FN MAG machine gun, rigged with facial recognition AI, satellite links and explosives. No agents were on the ground." Fakhrizadeh was shot dead, his wife beside him was unhurt. "Seconds later, the truck exploded." The truck had been smuggled in pieces and assembled inside Iran. NDTV. On 31 January 2018, Mossad agents broke into a secret warehouse in the Kahrizak District of southern Tehran and "pilfered 100,000 documents, including paper records and computer files documenting the nuclear weapons work of Iran's AMAD Project between 1999 and 2015." wikipedia. It is amazing that all the Israelis were able to escape from Iran with half-a-ton of material without being caught. Obviously, the regime is so hated that Israel has been able to establish a network of informers and helpers throughout Iran. Instead of indiscriminate bombing, which is only increasing public support for the Iranian regime, the US should target the Ayatollahs, IRGC commanders and Basij commanders and their homes. Make them surrender in fear for their lives. The Israelis know how. Strike a deal after winning the war. Let Israel lead. Support it. 

US down at 24th.

"Markets can recover from a bad quarter. Political upheaval, runaway inflation or weak institutions are much harder to hedge against." "A new global ranking shows that when safety is the priority, Europe dominates the list - while the United States falls well behind." "Singapore is the only non-European country to make the top 10." The US ranks 24th. BT. This 24th country has gone back to Pacific Command eight years after renaming it Indo-Pacific Command. "The announcement came hours before Mr Modi's engagement with Trump (on the margins of G7), a meeting many described as noticeably less warm than the embraces that once characterised the leaders' relationship. Gone are the stadium rallies and bear hugs." TOI. Back home, veteran Congress leader Pawan Khera told reporters "Let our government come to power. When we recount these 12-15 years, BJP leaders won't be able to step out without security." "People can see the media is being silenced, the organisations are being hijacked, how the Election Commission is in their (BJP's) pocket, how they have trampled the ED and CBI under their feet, how signatures are being forged and how democracy is being mocked." "It is already being documented." DH. A fascist government is unsafe and so are its projects. At Mira-Bhayandar in Mumbai a new four lane double-decker flyover, built at a cost of Rs 1 billion, suddenly narrows to two lanes, without any warning or signage. "In Bhopal, the Rs 180 million Ashbagh Railway overbridge went viral for its dangerously sharp 'near 90-degree turn'. In Lucknow, a railway overbridge appeared to run straight into a house. In Nagpur, images of the Indora-Dighori flyover almost slicing through a balcony at Ashok Chowk sparked outrage. The projects quickly became national memes." HT. "Ever since 2014, when the blissful era of Amrit Kaal began, it is said that the nation has been spared the shame and disgrace of corruption in high places." Now, "We simply do not notice corruption, we do not recognize corruption, we do not report corruption. No reports, no corruption. No intrepid editors, no crusading anchors." Millions have been stolen from the Ayodhya Ram Temple (BBC), the Enforcement Direectorate (ED) has settled 150 cases under the dreaded Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) for modest fines with permission from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) used AI-generated non-existent material, a Muslim High Court judge received death threats for finding 14 cow-vigilante men guilty of lynching a Muslim man (BBC) and the Bombay HC asked if all citizens are being made slaves of Indian govt., wrote Harish Khera. There is deep suspicion among Indians about the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), which was only deepened by the Supreme Court's refusal to allow an independent audit of the machines (BS). "The 124 FAQs published by the Election Commission of India (ECI) apparently dispel all doubts about the efficacy of machine-based voting. But deeper probing throws up more questions," wrote Venkatesh Nayak. Finally, if anyone is branded a criminal the police often eliminate him in a staged shooting incident, euphemistically known as 'encounters'. In seven years to September 2024, the UP police gunned down 207 criminals, many of whom carried cash rewards. TOI. We don't know India's position on the list of safe countries for investors. Could be embarrassing.

Following Marx.

"A growing middle class - larger, wealthier and more globally connected than ever before - is increasingly spending on goods and services priced directly or indirectly in dollars. International holidays, overseas education, AI subscriptions, streaming platforms, premium electronics, imported luxury products and even fuel consumed through greater mobility all carry a foreign exchange footprint." Also, "RBI data show that remittances for studies abroad exceeded $2.3 billion in FY26, while another $450 million was remitted under travel for education." ET. "As incomes rise for affluent households, they are increasingly spending on travel, fine dining and curated experiences such as concerts and well-being retreats, even as they continue to purchase high value premium goods." "Three in four wealthy Indians now make at least one high-end purchase every quarter, while one in four buys something premium every two weeks," wrote Sowmya Ramasubramanian & Neethi Lisa Rojan. At the same time, "By 2025-26, more than 15 states had unconditional cash transfer schemes for women, costing roughly Rs 1.7 trillion and reaching nearly 120 million beneficiaries." These schemes led to increased savings, increased spending, "though not enough to exhaust the income gain", increased spending on education and also helped the male members of the household. "Thus, total household welfare improved for everyone," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh & Shagishna K. India's "Net FDI (foreign direct investment) was weak all through 2025-26," India's corporate sector has been investing overseas, and "India's merchandise trade deficit (the excess of goods imports over goods exports) for 2025-26 was at $333.2 billion, widening 17.5% from 2024-25." Consumer demand has stagnated and "Capacity utilization for the 1000-odd units surveyed by RBI has been frozen around 75% for a prolonged period." "The solution, therefore, has to be austerity for the rich and a safety net for the vulnerable," wrote Rajrishi Singhal." "The International Monetary Fund (IMF)...marginally lowered India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.4% from 6.5% projected in April, while highlighting that India remains among the world's fastest-growing major economies." ET. But, "Given wages (after inflationary erosion is accounted for) have not grown across livelihoods, households have been forced to meet consumption expenses through borrowings." "By utilizing short-term but expensive debt to fund immediate survival, the working class effectively borrows from its future financial security to keep current domestic consumption afloat," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan & Srisoniya Subramanian. Education does not guarantee a stable income. "According to the State of Working India report, graduate unemployment for the 15-25 age group is hovering near 40%." "India's elite, hemmed in by its own risk aversion and stifling bureaucratic controls, has shown little ambition to build the kind of mass-employment manufacturing base that could provide an alternative," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Substituting subsidies instead of salaried income induces the government to resort to tax terrorism. Indians are concerned "That the taxman will send them a demand for an arbitrary sum when they least expect it." "The numbers seem to partly justify this suspicion: When these disagreements go to court. the government wins less than 8% of the time," wrote Mihir Sharma. It's a winning formula for politicians. Boast loudly about the growth rate, even if it is jobless, and distribute handouts to win elections. "What parties promise with flourish is not their money; it is public revenue." "The taxpayer funds the pool; the political class allocates it; the gratitude accrues to the allocator. It is your money; it becomes their mandate." TNIE. While dismissing religion as "Opium of the people" (wikipedia), Karl Marx had no hesitation in borrowing from the New Testament when he propounded his dictum: "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs (wikipedia)." Thankfully, Marxism has been a miserable failure. Indian politicians seem to be following Marx's footsteps. The result will be no different.    

Diverted to markets.

"According to NSDL data, India's mutual funds industry now controls Rs 76.41 trillion in assets under custody, slightly ahead of FIIs at Rs 76.22 trillion." "This marks the first time domestic funds have surpassed foreign investors in overall holdings." This is because SIP (systematic investment plans) have increased to a record Rs 320.87 billion in March 2026. "Annual SIP investments hit Rs 3.34 trillion in 2025, up from Rs 2.68 trillion in 2024, according to AMFI data." msn.com. "Mutual fund SIP inflows rose by Rs 8.27 billion or 3% month-on-month to Rs 317.81 billion in June, from Rs 309.54 billion in May." "SIP assets stood at Rs 17.70 trillion," and "The number of Contributing SIP accounts stood at 97.83 million in June 2026." ET. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are a far cry from turning bullish on Indian shares, with the recent buying in the cash market attributable to the closing out of reverse arbitrage (arb) positions rather than fresh market buying, per market experts." "Reverse arb, the opposite of arbitrage, involves purchasing stock futures and selling the underlying stock to lock in the spread." Mint. "Arbitrage refers to the practice of simultaneously buying and selling the same asset in different markets to profit from price discrepancies." "Arbitrage opportunities are usually short-lived because markets adjust rapidly." bajajfinserve.in. "Corporate India's recent balance sheet numbers confirm that," "Even as profits recover, they are investing in financial assets at twice the rate at which they invest in factories and machinery. The shift underscores corporate caution as subdued demand, moderate capacity utilization, and geopolitical volatility keep a much-awaited broader private investment cycle on hold," wrote Abhinaba Saha & Niti Kiran. Demand is subdued because households are losing confidence in the economy. The Urban Consumer Confidence Survey by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that "the Current Situation Index has fallen for the third consecutive round, down to 90.7 from 95.7 just two months earlier." The Rural Index has fallen to 95.2. Anything below 100 is negative. TNIE. "Experts are of the opinion that making an investment just for the sake of it is not a good idea." Investors err when they invest without a defined goal, chase recent performances (recency bias, wikipedia), underestimate valuation and risk, churn their portfolios too often and do not respect asset allocation. Mint. Perhaps, people are being forced by the RBI to gamble on the stock markets because they are losing money in banks. In its last meeting in June 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI held its interest rate at 5.25%. NDTV. "Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May 2026 was 3.93%." pib.gov.in. This means the real interest rate works out to 1.32%. "Consumer inflation, measured by the annual change in the CPI is expected to have quickened to 4.3% in June from 3.93% in May, economists forecast in the poll conducted July 3-9." Reuters. Which means a meager real interest rate of 0.95%. Since bank interest is taxable as income, the returns on bank deposits are deeply negative. People are gambling to protect the value of their savings. In the last fortnight in June, bank deposits grew by 2.7% to a total of Rs 265.4 trillion, while banks credit or advances jumped 18.6% to Rs 219.3 trillion. TOI. "Analysts warned that the widening gap between loans and deposits has pushed the banking system's loan-to-deposit ratio to one of its highest levels in more than a decade, raising concerns over funding sustainability." ET. Consumers have little confidence in the economy and bank deposits. Companies are shy of investing. The RBI is channeling money into stocks. Will the markets drag everything down. The RBI will have to explain.

It's a stalemate.

"US President Donald Trump has repeated his claim of settling the conflict between India and Pakistan, adding that 11 jets were shot down during the four-day hostilities in May last year." "India has consistently denied any third-party intervention." "Trump said Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif credited him with saving 30 to 50 million lives by stopping the Indo-Pak conflict." ET. Three days ago, US Attorney Bill Essayli announced charges against the leader of an Indian criminal group in connection with the assassination of a Sikh leader. "He spoke alongside officials of the Los Angeles Police Department, the FBI and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police." "Lawrence Bishnoi, 33, and his childhood friend Satinderjeet Singh are accused of orchestrating the assassination of a well-known Sikh independence activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar." ABC. Nijjar was shot on 18 June 2023 in the parking lot of the Guru Nanak Singh Gurdwara in British Columbia in Canada. Then Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau blamed the Indian government for the killing, which was followed by tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats from both countries and relations between India and Canada dropping to its lowest point. wikipedia. This is extremely odd. Why is a US lawyer announcing charges in a crime that occurred in Canada? Has Canada ceded jurisdiction on crimes committed on its soil to the US, or is the US attempting to create a rapprochement between India and Canada? If so, who gains? "According to a report submitted by Canada's auditor general to parliament..., the share of Indians in the country's incoming international student population was just 8.1% in September 2025 - a sharp drop from 51.6% in 2023." "Study permit rejections rose from 38% in 2023 to 52% in 2024 in Canada according to ICEF Monitor, which focuses on international student mobility." "So the question has shifted from how to go to Canada to whether to go at all." BBC. Lawrence Bishnoi, born Balkaran Bishnoi, has been incarcerated in Sabarmati Jail in Gujarat, India since 28 August 2023. "According to sources, Bishnoi is being held in complete isolation from other inmates." And yet, he is apparently able to run his criminal empire from behind bars. TNIE. Bishnoi's friend Goldie Brar is thought to have ordered the murder of Punjabi rap singer Sidhu Moose Wala. "Not much is known about Brar, apart from the fact he is on the Interpol Red Corner list, and is a key operative in a network of gangsters operated by Bishnoi." "It is thought Brar emigrated to Canada" where "he initially worked as a truck driver." BBC. While taking on the Nijjar case from Canada, the US is yet to conclude the alleged plot to murder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, with dual citizenship of the US and Canada living in New York, also in 2023. TOI. Indian national Nikhil Gupta was arrested from Prague in the Czech Republic on 30 June 2023 and extradited to the US. On 13 February 2026, Gupta confessed to offering $15,000 to a hitman, who happened to be an undercover Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agent, to kill Pnnun. The Wire. The US named former Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer Vikash Yadav as Nikhil Gupta's handler. Yadav has been charged with abduction and extortion of a city-based businessman. In August 2025, a non-bailable warrant was issued by Additional Sessions Judge Saurabh Partap Singh "against Yadav after he failed to appear before the court despite repeated summons in the alleged kidnapping and extortion case." "On 24 March this year, a court had granted Yadav an exemption from personal appearance on his bail plea citing threat to his life after his personal details were made public." TOI. Brilliantly done. Since crimes in India take precedence over US charges and since court cases can, and do, continue for decades in India, Yadav can lead a normal life without having to appear for hearings. That also prevents one of our intelligence officers from being interrogated by US justice officials. Bishnoi is safe in prison. We seem to have reached a stalemate. Time to move on?  

The risk of anything new.

"A new generation of small nuclear reactors is up an running - or nearly so - in the United States," The milestone made possible by billions in private and government funding, was on display in the middle of the Idaho desert." These small modular reactors (SMRs) are "compact enough that one was transported to the site by a pickup truck." "SMRs promise cheaper, faster-to-build nuclear power that can go almost anywhere," and is "positioning itself as a tool for American influence abroad." ET. SMRs "are advanced nuclear reactors that have a power capacity of up to 300 MW(e) per unit, about one-third of the generating capacity of traditional nuclear power reactors." "SMRs offer savings in cost and construction time, and they can be deployed incrementally to match increasing energy demand." iaea.org. "Even as $2.3 trillion in market value was erased from tech's elite 'Magnificent Seven' stocks last month," "the Semiconductor sector has experienced a historic surge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rallied more than 90% this year, tacking on another 6% gain just this month." TOI. Last year, Google let off two "firebombs", wrote Nilesh Jasani. The first was Google's generative AI Gemini which it integrated with its "existing services to sustain its dominance over a sprawling billion-user ecosystem."  The second was "its latest Ironwood Tensor Processing Unit" which "boasts 4,614 T-flops of peak compute power and 192GB of high-bandwidth memory, showing Google's ability to engineer hardware optimized exclusively for its models." Companies in the US spend vast sums of money on innovating new products, often encouraged by the US government, which puts them ahead in new technologies while the rest of the world tries to play catch-up. Sadly, R&D figures in India have fallen from "an already modest 0.83% of GDP in 2009-10 to 0.64% in 2020-21." Until the liberalisation of the 1990s, high customs barriers protected Indian companies from competition with foreign companies. "Today, the culture of rent seeking is perpetuated - despite the relative openness to the world inherited from the reforms of the 1990s - by the influence of industrialists close to the government, known as oligarchs or 'cronies', who succeed in owning or having the governments they finance raise customs barriers (often non-tariff barriers) that hinder the entry of foreign competitors into the Indian market," wrote Prof Christophe Jaffrelot. The Indian government has set aside Rs 10 billion ($120) for its AI mission. "One Nvidia H100 GPU, which is essential for modern AI, costs about $30,000 to $40,000." "What's even more surprising is that out of the meager Rs 20 billion set aside for FY26, only about Rs 8 billion was actually used - a 40% utilisation rate," wrote Arindam Goswami. "Operating under the department of atomic energy, which is headed by the Prime Minister, Indian Rare Earths Ltd (IREL) is today 75 years old." It should be producing rare earth magnets but "India's ecosystem lacks the technology to make rare earth magnets. And entrepreneurs are absent, too," wrote T Surender. Indian businessmen are averse to risks that innovation brings. Ironically, the CEO of Google Sundar Pichai is of Indian origin. wikipedia. Indians can do things. But, not in India. 

Well done Sri Lanka.

"Sri Lanka has regained upper middle-income status just three years after a severe economic crisis brought the country to the brink of collapse in 2022." The World Bank reclassified it "from the lower-middle-income category after the economy expanded by 5% in 2025, supported by broad-based recovery across industries and growth in tourism and financial services." TNIE. In May 2022, "Sri Lanka has defaulted on its debt for the first time in its history as the country struggles with its worst financial crisis in more than 70 years." "Sri Lanka is seeking to restructure debts of more than $50 billion it owes to foreign creditors, to make it more manageable to pay." BBC. India's Real GDP, or GDP at Constant Prices, grew at 7.7%, while Nominal GDP, or GDP at Current Prices, grew at 8.9% in 2025-26. pib.giv.in. Although it has fallen from an all-time high of $728.494 billion, India's foreign exchange reserves were at $666.933 billion during the week ended 26 June. CNBC TV18. And yet, "India remains in the lower-middle-income category," while The Philippines, Vietnam and Jordan have also been upgraded. India Today. "India is facing an acute jobs and wages crisis. Young people have disproportionately felt the impact. Just 7% of the population is now prosperous enough to pay I-T (income tax), and no young person entering the job market, even with professional or postgraduate qualifications, is paid enough to be in even the lowest tax bracket," wrote Rathin Roy. Jobs have to be created and for that India needs to offer goods and services that people will want. Patent filings have rocketed to 60,000 in 2023 from 40,000 in 2013, but "Patents are not subjected to blind peer review by experts," and "There is no measure of intrinsic quality, impact or scientific merit. Since the legal test is all that must be met, a surge in filings need not reflect a wave of genuine innovation." Universities have increased their patent filings to 42% of all filings in 2023 from 20% in 2013, which helps for advertising, wrote Mihir Mahajan & Arindam Goswami. "The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) of 2025 counts 79.2 million unincorporated non-agricultural establishments in India." "The Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) 2023-24, reports that the average registered factory employs 73 workers, ASUSE shows the average unincorporated establishment employs only 1.6. This is near solo work." Because, "When the modern sector does not create enough stable, productive wage jobs, self-employment becomes the default option rather than entrepreneurial choice," wrote Prof Saumitra Bhaduri & Shubham Anand. Even our laws are aganst the unincorporated sector. The law says that "buyers are legally obligated to settle vendor bills within 45 days if a written contract exists, or 15 days in its absence. The statue mandates a penalty and compound interest liability for non-compliance." And yet, "Large private entities and government bodies routinely stretch payment cycles to 90,120,or 180 days." The government may not pay on time but it wants its cut straight away. GST must be paid by the 20th of the next month from when the invoice is generated, regardless of whether the bill has been settled, wrote Ajit Ranade. The government and its cronies blatantly break the rules. No wonder Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Jordan have climbed higher than us. We are down there with Pakistan. World Bank. Siamese twins.        

Optimistic Indians.

"Morgan Stanley yesterday assigned a 25% probability to the BSE Sensex hitting 100,000 by June 2027. It said the bull case scenario was based on assumptions including oil prices staying below $80 a barrel, reflation policies beginning to deliver results and earnings growth compounding at 19% annually over FY 2026-29." BT. A 25% probability means a 75% against and no one can predict the price of oil. "Reflation is a policy response to economic slowdowns that aims to boost spending and counter deflation." "Reflation aims to stop deflation - the general decline in prices for goods and services that occurs when inflation falls below 0%." Investopedia. That is definitely not the case in India. Consumer price (CPI) inflation came in at 3.93% in May 2026, higher than 3.48% in April. pib.gov.in. The Indian rupee has fallen to over 95 to one dollar from about 88 in 2025. bankbazaar.com. If the rupee falls further it could cancel out any fall in the price of oil and increase consumer prices by increasing the cost of transport. "India's economy is expected to maintain growth of above 7% in 2026-27 (FY 27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth could slip below 3%...the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry said. Morgan Stanley's prediction is not a "bull case scenario", it is bull something else. It is an irresponsible incitement of Indians to invest in the stock market. "This should not be called a share market. This should be called a poison market. This is poison and it will kill everyone one day," said Shankar Sharma. "if you close the stock market for 10 years in India, then India will really grow." India Today. Earlier he said, 'India cannot afford to offer foreign capital fully convertible currency exits amid a balance of payments deficit. A price must be extracted for exits. A crashing stock market is that price. In fact, a crushed stock market almost always guarantees massive foreign inflows." Mint. The rupee is sinking mainly because Indian stock markets are overvalued compared with their peers." Foreign investors (FPIs) have withdrawn $53 billion from Indian markets in the last 18 months. But the market is barely down. Because, "Fund managers have convinced investors that they should not try to time their entry into markets and invest a regular sum every month. This has induced a rising SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) inflow, up from Rs 200 billion/month at the start of 2025 to Rs 320.8 billion in March 2026." And this has allowed FPIs to exit at a high price, wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. The stock market exuberance is despite the May 2026 Consumer Confidence Surveys by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which show that the Urban Current Situation Index has fallen to 90.7 from 95.7 two months earlier. A reading below 100 is negative and 90.7 falls in pessimistic territory. The Rural Current Situation Index has fallen to 95.2. TNIE. "India ranks as the second-most optimistic country among 30 markets in the April 2026 wave of Ipsos' What Worries the World survey, with 72% of urban Indians saying the country is moving in the right direction. This places India among a small cluster of high-confidence economy." Ipsos'.com. But now, "The Future Expectations Index for urban India dropped to 118.7, its lowest reading since September 2023." "Worsening expectations threaten consumption demand - the largest component of growth in India." So, why did Morgan Stanley make such a ridiculous suggestion? Is it, like our 'godi (lapdog) media', trying to flatter our government, or is it trying to push up our stock prices to boost profits of US investors? Either way, it's unethical. Even wrong.