Better to be no one. Than hostile.

 Three days back, "A pit six meters long four meters wide and deep, dug by the Delhi Jal Board (DJB) on a service road in Janakpuri in West Delhi," resulted in the death of 25-year-old Kamal Dhayani, He was found next morning at the bottom of the pit, still wearing his helmet, with his motorcycle lying next to him. While, "Delhi Police officials said the bike could have fallen while trying to ride over the dug-up mounds of earth," "the DJB said that there was green mesh and safe barricading at the site." TIE. So, he must have committed suicide. Case closed. Many people saw the accident and the victim lying at the bottom of the pit but no one informed the police until a woman, Shivani, came on the scene. HT. It may be because most people feel that no one will be held responsible and they would be forced to turn into 'hostile witnesses'. "In India, in most cases involving the rich and the influential people or corrupt politicians, witnesses turn hostile, making the rule of law a mockery. Very often witnesses become untraceable. Sometimes they are just eliminated." Law Teacher. "While the sub-contractor, identified as Rajesh Kumar Prajapati, 47, was arrested...and booked for culpable homicide, the main contractor and the laborer, identified by his single name Yogesh, were absconding." HT. Delaying arrest gives time to contact influential friends, pay off key individuals and appoint a lawyer adept at seeking adjournments from polite judges. Criminal cases take and average of 5-20 years to resolve (jsrohilla.in) and this gives ample time for the accused to intimidate witnesses into turning hostile. In 2008, 13 year-old girl Aarushi Talwar and 45 year-old man Yam Prasad 'Hemraj' Benjade were murdered inside Aarushi's home, with doors locked from the inside, but no one was found responsible. wikipedia. In 2021, a 19 year-old lower caste woman was found in a field by her family "battered and bruised, barely conscious and naked from the waist downwards. Her spine was broken, she was bleeding and vomiting blood." "In her 'dying declaration', the 19-year-old told a magistrate that she had been gang raped and strangled and named four of her neighbors as the perpetrators." BBC. Three of the four men have been found innocent and one found guilty of a lesser charge. wikipedia. In 2006-07, bodies of 17 children were dug up in Nithari, a village in Uttar Pradesh. One Surinder Koli was found guilty of murder in 10 of the cases and his employer Maninder Singh Pandher was found guilty of two, Both were sentenced to death by Allahabad High Court in 2023. wikipedia. In 2025, the Supreme Court found both men not guilty. BBC. In India, people are murdered by no one. It follows, therefore, no one is responsible for children dying by drowning in manholes which have been left open. "The National Crimes Bureau (NCRB) reveals a sobering reality: In India, one person dies every 12 hours from falls into open pits and manholes, with a staggering 5393 such deaths recorded since 2015." Inventiva. If you see nothing and hear nothing you will have to say nothing, or else, you will face serious hostility from goons. Could be labeled 'hostile'. Or end up in a pit. Better to be one of the monkeys. And alive.  

It's only Interim.

The India-US Joint Statement on a trade deal has been announced which brings down reciprocal tariffs on a range of Indian goods exported to the US to 18%. Reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of goods could be removed "subject to the successful conclusion of the interim agreement." "India intends to purchase $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and cooking coal over the next 5 years." pib.gov.in. A reciprocal tariff of 26% was imposed on India in the Executive Order 14257, published on 4 April 2025, which complained that "the United States has among the lowest simple average MFN (most favored nation) tariff rates in the world at 3.3%," India was charging a rate of 17%. - a rate of 70% on passenger vehicles, 80% for rice in the husk, 50% for apples and 10% for network switches and routers. Seems to have a point. At 18%, India will have an advantage over Vietnam (20%) and Indonesia (19%), wrote Arpita Mukherjee. "The deal comes at a time when exporters of labor-intensive products like garments, footwear and leather items were feeling the pinch of high tariffs imposed in 2025." "Under the agreement, India will remove or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a broad basket of agricultural products, including dried distillers' grains, red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruits, soybean oil, wine and spirits." India Today. Red sorghum, or Lal Jowar, is already grown in India (gonefarmers.com), so why do we need to import it free of tariffs? While most goods sold in India come under the goods and services tax (GST) collected by the Union government, states levy their own taxes on alcoholic drinks. "It's estimated that taxes on liquor and beer fetch the state governments nearly Rs 900 billion annually." cleartax.in. Will states be free to levy their own taxes on American wine and spirits, which will raise their prices, and if not, will they have to reduce taxes on Indian wine and spirits so that they can compete? Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal "asserted that India's sensitive agricultural and dairy products sectors will continue to be shielded. He also clarified that no genetically modified products from the US will be allowed in India as part of the trade deal." TOI. "The joint statement says both sides have agreed to strengthen economic security alignment to enhance supply chain resilience and innovation through 'complementary actions'," which, according to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava "suggests that India's security and economic policies may increasingly need to align with those of the United States." TNIE. Reassuringly, "Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani have hired prominent attorneys in the US - including one of Donald Trump's lawyers and a former Mafia prosecutor - to represent them in their defence against allegations of securities fraud leveled by the Securities and Exchange Commission." Mint. The Mafia and the Don, they should be safe. India is paying only $500 billion for the trade deal. Seems like a bargain. 

Expecting the unexpected.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at its latest meeting yesterday. The forecast for economic growth was raised from 7.3% to 7.4% and that for consumer price index (CPI) inflation was raised from 2.0% to 2.1%. Mint. Earlier, the US Federal Reserve had voted to hold its lending rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, "citing still-elevated inflation alongside solid economic growth, ad giving little indication in its latest policy statement of when borrowing costs may fall again." Reuters. The hawkish outlook from the Fed meant that "The US dollar hit a two-week high...as fresh volatility gripped stocks and the pound tumbled after the Bank of England voted by a razor-thin margin to leave UK rates unchanged." Reuters.The rupee has strengthened by almost Rs 2 against the dollar, from 92.043 on 28 January to 90.596 to one dollar yesterday. Investing.com. Perhaps the RBI does not want any pressure on the rupee as traders look for risk-off investments. In good news, India's foreign currency reserves jumped to $723.8 billion in the week ending 30 January, "providing a robust merchandise imports cover of more than 11 months." Foreign currency reserves fell by $493 million but the value of gold reserves jumped by $14.59 billion as the price of gold soared on the spot market. ET. Since then the price of gold has crashed from  a high of $5,400.25 per ounce to $4,961.15 yesterday. Investing,com. India and the RBI have not forgotten the crisis of 1991 when our forex reserves fell to just $1.2 billion, barely enough to cover 3 weeks of essential imports. India had to airlift 47 tons of gold to the Bank of England and another 20 tons to the Union Bank of Switzerland to raise $600 million and avert the crisis. wikipedia. When asked, former RBI Governor Prof Raghuram Rajan "reportedly said there was no point at which a country could feel safe, unless it had accumulated trillions of dollars like China." We gain foreign exchange from exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), overseas loans and remittances by Indian expatriates. "The Indian diaspora sent home $135.46 billion in the last fiscal year, the highest on record." And the highest in the world. ET. The concern is that remittances are much higher than FDI. Between 2014-15, FDI, which is expected to be long term has been steady at around $30 billion annually, while foreign portfolio investment (FPI), which is short term, has been volatile. However, repatriation of FDI "jumped from $18 billion pre-pandemic to $44 billion and $51 billion in 2023-24 and 2024-25 respectively." And, outward investment by Indian entities doubled from $13 billion in 2019-20 to $28 billion in 2024-25. Mint. The RBI has played safe. Which is good because the world seems unpredictable. We could face the unexpected. Suddenly.   

Don to the rescue.

"A robust economy forms the foundation of a strong foreign policy and India must grow faster and increase its share of global trade to gain respect on the world stage, economist and NITI Aayog's former vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar has said." "India's share of global merchandise has remained below 2% for the last three decades," and "In the services sector, India's global share stands at around 4%." ET. On Friday, 03 February, "Shares of Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra and Wipro dropped sharply, falling by as much as 6% by 9.30 am," US artificial intelligence firm (AI) Anthropic released new tools "designed to handle routine legal work such as contract checks, non-disclosure agreement reviews, legal summaries and standard drafting tasks." NDTV. It has been coming. "In the 12 months leading up to August 2025, Accenture pulled in $4.78 billion in new business - a figure that surpasses the combined incremental revenue ($3.92 billion) generated by India's 15 largest IT services firms in 2024-25." 'Over half ($2.7 billion) of Accenture's new revenue came from advanced AI solutions," wrote Jas Bardia & Varun Sood." "According to Stanford's AI Index Report 2025, in 2024 the US led with 40 notable AI models, followed by China with 15. With these regions controlling nearly all LLMs that have achieved a global footprint, India faces a formidable challenge." "Bain & Co (2025) warned that India could face a shortfall of over a million skilled professionals by 2027." "R&D spending is also low, at 0.6% of GDP in 2024, versus 2.68% in China and roughly 3.5% in the USA." ET. As per the IMF, projected nominal GDP of the US was $30.62 trillion, China's was $19.4 trillion and India's was $4.13 trillion in 2025. Worldometer. It means that, in absolute numbers, the US spent $1.07 trillion while India spent an almost negligible $24,7 billion on R&D in 2024. "Recently, India's most valuable company paused its lithium-ion battery plant because it could not get Chinese technology." "The company could have funded a big research project. Instead it waited for technology from China." Why try to innovate when you can buy, wrote Arindam Goswami. Indians are afraid of failure. "Only the USA stands out as a country that has socially accepted the idea of failure as a legitimate option, worthy of praise." ET. "Patent filings by DPIIT recognized startups have crossed 13,000, since 2021, trademark filings have exceeded 44,000." Filing a patent "can help a founder make a pitch to investors." But, once the funding round closes, no actual patent is achieved, wrote Pravin Kaushal. Similarly, patent filings by educational institutions have risen from 20% to 42% of all filings. But the lack of revenue from licensing patents show that they are merely to improve their rankings, wrote Mihir Mahajan & Arindam Goswami. Artificial intelligence is created by human intelligence. Over one hundred years ago, American Robber Barons established universities and encouraged innovation. Edsurge. Protected by high tariffs our lot has been filing fake patents and begging from China. Perhaps the zero tariff on US goods forced on Mr Modi by Donald Trump (HT) may force them to start investing in R&D, to survive. We may yet hail the Don as our savior. Don of all people! Who would have thought that?        

An oily conundrum.

"In early September, after meeting Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Narendra Modi "dispatched his National Security Adviser (NSA) to Washington to help over fraying ties." Mr Ajit Doval told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, "India wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal," and that "New Delhi wanted Trump and his aides to dial down their public criticism of India." HT. Or else what? Give more money to China? As per Chinese Customs, India's exports to China increased by $5.5 billion to $19.75 billion in 2025, while imports from China jumped 12.8% to $135.87 billion, giving us a record trade deficit of $116.12. TOI. "Russia faces a steep drop in oil income if Trump successfully pressures India to stop importing Russian crude," which has already "dropped 22% to 1.38 million barrels per day in December from November, their lowest since January 2023, reducing Russia's share in Indian imports to 27.4% while OPEC's share rose to 53.2%." Reuters. Seems unlikely that Rubio was quaking with fear at threats from Mr Doval. Meanwhile, "China's trade with Russia in 2025 pulled back from a record level in 2024," to 1.63 trillion yuan ($234 billion). Since February 2022, China has been "buying Russian oil, coal and gas and selling goods from cars to electronics to its northern neighbor." Reuters. However, oil could yet have an enormous influence on what happens to our economy, as "aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided missile destroyers have crossed into the Middle East, which comes under the US Central Command." "Trump had repeatedly threatened to intervene if Iran continued to kill protesters, but the countrywide demonstrations have since abated." Reuters. "For nearly half a century, Iran has prepared for a war with the United States." "Iran is believed to have thousands of missiles and drones within range of US troops based in a number of countries in the Middle East and has threatened to strike them, as well as Israel." CNN. Obviously, the US will need to be guided by Israel, as Israel has repeatedly revealed its intelligence network in Iran. In June 2025, "Israeli Air Force jets, guided by precise intelligence, targeted nuclear facilities, military commanders and soldiers, destroying dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers, according to a statement by the country's War Room." NDTV. Israel could have been supplying intelligence already as, "The top US and Israeli generals held talks at the Pentagon on Friday (30 January) amid soaring tensions with Iran." Reuters. "Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the US on Friday (tomorrow) in Oman, Iranian media reported." ET. Iran's threat against the US and Israel could be a bluff because it knows that any attack will invite severe reprisals. Instead, it could choose to target oil installations just across the Gulf in Saudi Arabia and the UAE which would send the price of oil shooting up like a missile. What would India do if that happens? Scaring Rubio won't work. Go back to Russia? Trump notwithstanding.   

The budget may need some help.

"Indian stock markets witnessed a historic surge on Tuesday, 3 February," so that, "The combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies increased to Rs 467.35 trillion from Rs 455 trillion in the previous session, translating into a gain of more than Rs 12.5 trillion in a single day." The reason for the euphoria was that "After prolonged negotiations, US President Donald Trump confirmed that reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods would be reduced to 18%, a steep cut from the earlier 50%." Mint. The rupee which had sunk to a record low of 92.043 against the US dollar on 28 January, joined in the celebrations, appreciating over 1% to close at 90.423 on 03 February. Investing.com. "After months of tariff threats...New Delhi has finally sealed a trade deal with the United States - not by yielding early but by waiting out the noise." "Even as talks dragged on, New Delhi quietly accelerated trade engagement elsewhere, signing five trade agreements over the past year - including a landmark pact with the European Union." ET. On the other hand, White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai hailed the deal as "Another historic victory for American workers, farmers and industries." ET. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer claimed that Indian tariffs on US industrial goods will fall from 13.5% to zero and also tariffs "for a variety of things...tree nuts, wine, spirits, fruits, vegetables, etc, they're going down to zero." ET. After two decades of negotiations, India and the European Union clinched a free trade deal last month. In it, "Tariffs on premium European wines will also be cut in stages, falling from 150% to as low as 20% over seven years, while lower priced wines are excluded." TT. In the trade deal between India and the United Kingdom customs duty on Scotch whiskey will come down from 150% to 75% and thereafter gradually to 40% over the next decade. ET. If India is to cut duties on US wines and spirits to zero in one fell swoop, both the EU and the UK may demand the same concessions and, since both agreements are yet to be ratified by their respective parliaments, they could be sent back for re-negotiations. "Replacing Russian crude with market-priced oil could see India's import bill rise by as much as $4 billion (Rs 362 billion at today's exchange rate of 90.50) (MC) but a report by State Bank of India (SBI) Research claimed that switching to Venezuelan heavy crude could cut our impost bill by $3 billion. "It noted that a discount of USD 10-12 per barrel on Venezuelan crude would be sufficient to make the choice economically neutral for Indian importers." ANI. Why should Venezuela give a discount when we have already agreed to Trump's demand? Some sectors like leather and textiles may see some benefits but the nation could incur a large deficit. That brings us to the Budget. But, that's another story. 

18% + $500 billion to go, for zero return.

Celebrating an abject surrender, "US President Donald Trump announced that he agreed to a trade deal with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where the US will lower tariffs on goods from India to 18% from 25%." The 25% penalty for buying Russian oil will also be dropped. Instead India will buy more US oil and $500 billion worth of American goods and possibly also more Venezuelan oil. BBC. In 2024, a full year of trade before 26% reciprocal tariffs were imposed in April 2025 (Reuters), "US goods and services trade with India totaled an estimated $212.3 in 2024." The US exported goods worth $41.5 billion to India and imported $87.3 billion worth of goods from India, incurring a trade deficit of $45.8 billion. In services, the US exported $41.8 billion and imported $41.6 billion for a surplus of $102 million. ustr.gov. "Russia has sharply increased the discount on its Urals crude oil sold to India. In several cases, the discount compared to global oil prices exceeded $25 per barrel. For some individual cargoes, discounts approached $40 per barrel." man.com. "India imported about 144 billion euros' ($170.09 billion) worth of crude oil from Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, a European think tank said." NDTV. Now we have to buy US oil at market prices. Seems that our losses will be far more than any potential gains. In another standoff with the US, in January 2026, "After India challenged its authority to issue summonses, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has moved a federal court to bypass diplomatic channels and allow service on Gautam and Sagar Adani via their US counsel and email." "The move marks a shift in the agency's 14-month effort," following, "On December 14, 2025, the SEC received letters from the Indian Ministry of Law and Justice, date November 4, citing a new and unexpected objection." This was the second time, the first rejection was in April 2025. The Wire. In addition, "The US SEC has arranged to serve Gautam Adani with a civil fraud lawsuit, allowing the regulator's case against India's second-richest person to proceed." CNBC. On 01 February 2026, "Billionaire Gautam Adani and his nephew, Sagar Adani, have agreed to receive a legal notice from US SEC in a civil fraud lawsuit alleging they misled investors about a bribery scheme, according to the court filing." TOI. The civil case is in addition to a criminal charge of bribery by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn. Mr Adani's lawyers have not accepted the jurisdiction of the Eastern District of New York. The trade deal will be hailed as a huge achievement, but a group of more than 800 small businesses in the US noted that effective tariffs on Indian imports were 2-3% but are at 18% now (Reuters) and could rise any time if any Russian oil is imported. Trump also announced that India has agreed to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers on American goods potentially to zero. India Today. We give away everything and get some small change in return. They said stand and deliver and we did. Why?