Win the peace.

In retaliation to Israel/US attacks, "Iran's response has been a barrage of missiles and drones, targeting military bases and installations across several Gulf countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates." India Today. Following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February (wikipedia), the regime is trying to survive, whatever the cost. They have calculated that if they can increase the economic and casualty cost to the US, the Trump-hating biased media and opposition  (Chicago Tribune) will cheer every injury to the US and may even offer advice on how to increase the pain. To win this war just bombing the infrastructure is not enough - any remnant of the old regime must not be allowed to survive. After the fall of Saddam Hussein, Sunni officers of the disbanded Iraqi army joined ISIS as fighters and commanders, contributing much to their success. Time. After World War II, "a series of trials held in Nuremberg, Germany, in 1945-46, in which former Nazi leaders were indicted and tried as war criminals by the International Military Tribunals." Four defendants were sentenced to 10-20 years in prison, three were sentenced to life imprisonment and 12 defendants were sentenced to death, of which 10 were hanged. Hermann Goring committed suicide by swallowing a cyanide capsule. Britannica. This was followed by a group of Nazi hunters who sought former Nazi officials hiding in exile and brought them to justice. wikipedia. "Simon Wiesenthal was an Austrian Holocaust survivor who dedicated his life to ensuring that the crimes of the Nazi regime were not forgotten and that those responsible were brought to justice. wiesenthal.org. But winning the war and punishing Nazi criminals was not enough. The US won the peace when "On June 5, 1947, in an address at Harvard University, Secretary of State George C Marshall advanced the idea of a European self-help program to be financed by the United States." A law was passed on 3 April 1948 and over the next four years the US distributed $13 billion to 17 States of Western Europe including former enemies, Italy and West Germany. Britannica. Today, both Italy and Germany are members of NATO (nato. int) and Holocaust denial is a criminal offense in Germany (DW). Iranian people should be helped to bring former regime members to trial. President Nicolae Ceausescu of Romania was tried by a special military tribunal on charges of mass murder and immediately shot to death by a firing squad. Britannica. Today, Romania is a member of both the European Union and NATO. BBC. Peace will only come to Iran if people see the benefits of war. Sanctions must be lifted quickly, food and medicine supplies ensured and the economy stabilized. Iran could then become an example for other terrorist states like Pakistan. And, just maybe, Trump-haters will praise hi. Or, maybe not.           

Bear attack.

""Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Sanjay Malhotra said corporates, banks, central and state governments and the private sector are in robust shape, evidence that the economy is 'healthy and robust'." So the "Goldilocks phase can be sustained." ET. "Describing 2025 as a 'defining year for Indian growth,' the government also defined it as the country's 'Goldilocks moment,' with high growth and low inflation." As "India has benefited from surging service revenues (from India's booming IT services firms) and exports of made-in-India Apple iPhone (estimated at $23 billion in the first half of 2025 alone). Both sectors are exempt from Trump tariffs." Forbes. Then, three days ago, "President Donald Trump...said that US had begun a major combat operation against Iran, after Israel said it has launched 'preventive strikes' against Tehran." NDTV. Crude oil and natural gas prices jumped, with Brent crude briefly hitting $82 per barrel." BBC. "The rupee fell to its weakest in a month," As "The RBI likely stepped into the market, traders said, while dollar sales by foreign banks also helped curb losses in the rupee, which fell 0.5% to close at 91.47 per dollar in its steepest drop in more than a month." Reuters. It is trading at 91.80 to one dollar this morning. xe.com. The rise in the price of oil may take some time to reflect in our cost of purchase, as "The price of the Indian crude oil basket, which represents the cost of oil imported into the country, has averaged $59.92 per barrel in January, down from $62.2 in December, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell." Mint. So, "International oil prices rose about 9% following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran," but "retail prices are not expected to be raised immediately, as the government continues to follow a calibrated policy of allowing companies to build margins when international prices are low and cushioning consumers when rates rise." ET. As the price of crude oil fell the government increased taxes on petrol and diesel so that the retail price of petrol stayed steady at around Rs 95 per liter in Delhi (goodreturns.in). In 2024, the Congress alleged that the Centre had collected over Rs 36 trillion from taxes on petroleum products in 5 years. ET. That figure may have crossed Rs 50 trillion by now, an enormous revenue for the government. If the government increases the cost of fuel it will immediately feed into the cost of transport and raise prices of all goods in India. A weak rupee will immediately raise the cost of imports and further add to inflation. "For India, each $1 increase in crude adds roughly $2 billion to the annual import bill, putting pressure on the trade balance, JM Financial noted." "Fertiliser prices could rise sharply if supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, potentially increasing India's subsidy burden." ET. Already, "India's current account deficit (CAD) rose to USD $13.2 billion, or 1.3% of GDP, in the December quarter from USD 11.3 billion in the years ago period,..according to RBI data." PTI. Trouble with Goldilocks is that the bears come. And she runs away.       

El Mencho, the novice.

One week ago, "Mexico's most wanted man and the leader of the feared Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) drug cartel has been killed during a security operation to arrest him, the defence ministry has said." "Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as 'El Mencho', died...as he was being taken to the capital Mexico City, after being seriously injured in clashes between his supporters and the army." BBC. One week later, another brutal, mass-murdering lowlife thug, "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed, Iran's state media confirmed, after the United States and Israel launched the most ambitious attack on Iranian targets in decades." NDTV. Mencho was born on 17 July 1966, which would make him 59 years old the day he died on 22 February 2026 (wikipedia), while Khamenei was born on 19 April 39, which would make him 87 years old the day he died on 28 February 2026 (wikipedia). Mencho was despised as a criminal drug lord and carried a bounty of $10 million US dollars on his head, while Khamenei cloaked himself in the safety of religion as an Ayatollah, which is a title for a high-ranking Twelver Shia clergy" (wikipedia). As a religious leader one would have expected Khamenei to prostrate himself to "Allahu Akbar" or "Allah - He is -The Greatest," (yasmeeninstitute. blog), but since 3 December 1979, for a total of almost 57 years, Khamenei was announced the Supreme Leader of Iran  (wikipedia), whose every word was unchallenged. Akin to God. While Mencho was hunted by the Mexican army and US drug enforcement, Khamenei was securely protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) , which "Originating as an ideological militia, the IRGC has taken on a growing role in nearly every aspect of Iranian politics, economics (including energy and food industries) and society." wikipedia. Its supporters refer to it as "Sepah-e-Pasdaran (Army of the Guardians), Pasdaran-e-Enghelab (Guardians of the Revolution), or simply Pasdaran (Guardians). To enforce its total control of the Iranian society, "Basij branch of the IRGC in Iran enlists civilian volunteers who are motivated by zealotry and devotion to the Islamic Republic." "The Basij consists primarily of young working-class men (or boys under 18) who have yet to begin a career, marry or have children." Britannica. These goons shot 26-year old Neda- Agha Soltani in cold blood on 20 June 2009 wikipedia) following blatant hijack of the 2009 general elections by conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad  (wikipedia) leading to widespread protests. Khamenei supported this shameless theft. The widely presumed winner Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife are still under house arrest. Britannica. In recent protests, "As many as 30,000 people could have been killed in the streets of Iran on January 8 and 9 (2026) alone, two senior officials of the country's Ministry of Health told TIME - indicating a dramatic surge in death toll." time.com. Terrified of losing their privileged positions and of facing justice, the religious coterie, the IRGC and the Basij thugs are trying to consolidate. BBC. El Mencho's followers have reacted ferociously to his killing (BBC) while the maddened savage followers of Khamenei are firing missiles indiscriminately at Arab nations who had no part in his killing (Reuters). Mencho was a novice in villainy compared to this pervert. Chopping the head is not enough. Uproot the entire rot. Free the people.             

Aew series of good news.

 India's gross domestic product (GDP) has been estimated with a new base year 2022-23, from 2011-12, to reflect the changing nature of the economy. Years 2019-21 were distorted by the Covid epidemic. The growth rate of the real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, is estimated at 7.6%, while the growth rate of the nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, is projected at 8.6% for the financial year 2025-26. pib.gov.in. "The new series will compute demand directly using the consumption expenditure survey," and "will use data from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS)," to track the vast informal sector. TOI. The changes in the base year and the methodology have reduced India's nominal output by Rs 11 trillion ($133 billion), which means that "India's nominal GDP in 2025-26 at Rs 345.47 trillion ($3.93 trillion), 3.26% smaller than the Rs 357.14 trillion given in January based on the 2011-12 series." Mint. In 2024, Japan's nominal GDP was at $4.028 trillion. World Bank. The revised estimate (RE) for the fiscal deficit from April 2025-January 2026 (FY26) was Rs 9.81 trillion, or 63% of the annual target, compared to 74.5% in the same period last year. Revenue receipts stood at Rs 27.09 trillion, or 79.5% of total receipts, with net tax revenue at Rs 20.94 trillion (79.3% of RE) and non-tax revenue of Rs 5.57 trillion (78.3%). Mint. The manufacturing sector grew at 13.3% while services grew 9.5% in the third quarter of FY26 (September-December 2025), investment increased 7.8% and the current account deficit (CAD) will remain at a comfortable 1% of GDP. "Both central and aggregate state capex have grown by around 15% in the first three quarters of the current fiscal year, compared with last year," Loss of jobs in the IT sector due to AI adoption is a concern, wrote Rajani Sinha. Good news all round. Further good news is that oil prices have barely budged after, "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office on Saturday morning during US-Israeli air strikes, state media confirms." BBC. Brent crude is up 2.03% at $72.87 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up just 1.81% at $67.02 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. If the conflict concludes swiftly with a regime change in Iran, the US could withdraw sanctions on the country, leading to a jump in oil supply and a fall in crude prices, which would be good for India. "Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran...raised the growth forecast for the next financial year to 7-7.4% as against 6.8-7.2% projected in last month's Economic Survey," and "He said that the Indian economy was likely to cross $4 trillion next year." TOI. A deluge of good news. Not too good to be true. Is it? 

A need for undergarments.

"Describing BSNL's lavish arrangements for director Vivek Banzal's now called-off trip to Prayagraj 'improper and absurd', communications minister Jyotiriditya Scindia...said that 'appropriate action' will be taken against the senior executive of the state-run company." His "lavish four-page instructions detailing snan (bathing) kits, personal toiletries, undergarments and other comforts, including a retinue of nearly 50 officials to attend to Banzal and a chief general manager, has sparked concerns over misuse of official resources." TOI. Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) is a public sector company which made a net loss of Rs 22.47 billion of taxpayer money in 2025. wikipedia. BSNL "has survived the past six years on massive government support funded by taxpayers. Despite revival packages of over Rs 3 trillion the company only reported its first quarterly profits in nearly two decades last year - and has since then slipped back into losses." man.com. Totally shameless entitlement. According to a report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG), 383 (18%), public sector units owned by state and Central governments are 'inactive'. And "Rs 57 billion at least, is tied up in inactive govt firms as investments across 18 state/UTs for which this CAG audit report is available," wrote Chandrima Banerjee. Use them for personal comfort. These entitled people have to fly. So, "India added 89 new airports in 11 years, opening one every 45 days on average." 15 Udan airports cost Rs 8.8 billion to build and "At least 48 airports saw less than five flights a day." MInt. Mr Narendra Modi was first elected prime minister 12 years ago, in 2014. wikipedia. As per "a recent communication from the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) to the Lok Sabha Secretariat," "questions about PM CARES Fund, Prime Minister's National Relief Fund (PMNRF), and the National Defence Fund (NDF), which the PMO administers are not admissible under the House business rules." And not answerable to the Right to Information (RTI) Act, wrote Venkatesh Nayak. "The Prime Minister's Citizen Assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations Fund (PM CARES Fund) was created on 27 March 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic in India." wikipedia. After having denied an estimated excess deaths  of over 4 million from Covid, with a derisory figure of just 414,000 (BBC), the government has now admitted to two million excess deaths in 2021, according to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). HT. "Despite collecting a cess specifically for health, the Centre's spending on health is now lower than it was before the cess was imposed, both as a share of the total budget and as a proportion of the GDP." TOI. "The political class has written one set of laws for India and lives by another." "India does not need better politicians. It needs citizens angry enough to make them afraid," wrote Sachi Satpathy. Those who are naked in their greed won't care. They have reduced themselves to moral beggary. They need the dignity of undergarments first.       

Just another blockchain.

 "Digital Rupee or eRe, is India's Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)" "offering features similar to physical cash like convenience of use, guarantee of RBI, finality of settlement etc. eRe is stored in the user's digital wallet and can be used to receive / send money, and / or make payment for transactions, just like any physical Re note." rbi.org.in. Digital currency saves the cost of printing currency notes and is easy to trace, thereby allowing tax officials to stamp down on tax avoidance. "The financial outlay for security printing surged by almost 25% in the fiscal year 2024-25, reaching Rs 63.728 billion, compared to Rs 51.014 billion the previous year." ET. "CBDC operates on a secure, transparent blockchain network, and it uses an immutable record of all transactions. This means that all transactions are recorded on a decentralized ledger, making it impossible to modify or tamper with data." ibm.com. Transparent it may be, but safe it is not. Hackers got into the cloud storage of a UK couple "where they kept information about their crypto wallets (also based on blockchain), and how to access them. In February 2024, after a small test transfer, the criminals sent all the couple's coins to their own digital wallets in a swift and silent attack." "2025 was a bumper year for crypto criminals, with total thefts standing at more than $3.4bn, according to investigators at Blockchain analysis firms Chainalysis." BBC. If North Korean hackers attack CBDC wallets of Indian citizens can the RBI block or reverse the transactions? What if they attack the RBI itself? In February 2026, "Government of India launches CBDC-based Digital Food Currency pilot for Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in Puducherry." pib.gov.in. The National Payments Corporation of India has created a Unified Payments Interface (UPI) instant payment transfers, which "facilitates inter-bank peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers and person-to- merchant transactions (P2M). wikipedia. However, India's currency in circulation (CiC) climbed to Rs 40 trillion in late 2025 and early 2026. Simultaneously, UPI payments have also reached a record high of Rs 28 trillion - 70% of CiC. This may be because people are spending more after reductions in income tax and GST rates, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh & Tapa Parida. Perhaps, not so simple. First, small traders have shifted to cash after receiving notices from tax authorities who traced UPI transactions. Second an "explosive growth of unconditional cash transfers, estimated at 2% of GDP across 15 states." Third, distribution of cash to bribe voters before state and national elections. And fourth, people use UPI for small transactions but cash for privacy of use, wrote Ajit Ranade. Since politicians are using cash for elections people follow their example. At least UPI are small transactions, CBDC could wipe out entire bank accounts. It's just a cryptocurrency in another name. Just as risky. Cash is in hand.              

Bond market whispers.

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India's Real GDP grew at 8.2% in the second quarter of 2025-26 and by 8.0% in the first half of the current financial year. pib.gov.in. According to the First Advanced Estimates by MoSPI, Real GDP grew 7.4%, and Nominal GDP at 8.0% in Financial Year 2024-25. mospi.gov.in. And despite this scorching economic growth, India's net foreign direct investment (NFDI) "has actually been negative in the in the last 4 mths (-$2.40 bn in September 2025; -$0.167 bn in October; -$0.446 bn in November ; -$1.61 bn in December)." Because Indian companies are investing abroad, though modestly, and foreign investors are repatriating dollars by paring down their investments in Indian companies whose equities have been pushed sky high by domestic investors. "This is what dynamic capitalism should look like," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Is India really a capitalist country? Last week, the Supreme Court observed "That the seemingly endless freebies... at both the Union and state levels with no heed paid to who can or cannot pay amounts to 'appeasement'." "The 2024 poll results in Maharashtra and Jharkhand are surmised to have been influenced by freebie schemes, as also last year's Bihar polls, whose freebie bill was was estimated to exceed Rs 300 billion." Mint. Axis Bank's research estimates that "nearly one-fifth of India's women are receiving cash payments. Total payments this year will be 0.5% of GDP, and in some states exceed 5% of the government's expenditure," wrote Ajit Ranade. Naturally, governments will need to borrow more from the markets? Last week, yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds spiked to 6.7214% on fears of US-Iran conflict pushing up oil prices. ET. Yesterday, yields fell to 6.6726% on strong buying investors in the 'others category', which includes the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), who net bought bonds worth Rs 74.84 billion ($823.12 million). ET. Since February 2025, the RBI has cut its policy rates by 125 basis points (bps) and yet yields on GOI bonds rose 7 bps over the one year period. Because the government has increased its borrowing program to Rs 17.2 trillion and net borrowing to Rs 11.7 trillion in 2026-27. "In FY25, the RBI conducted net OMO (open market operations) purchases  totaling Rs 6.8 trillion and buy-sell swaps of $25 billion." Mint. India's merchandise trade deficit rose to $34.68 billion in January from $25.04 billion in December. ET. And yet, "India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $8.66 billion from a week earlier to hit an all-time high of $725.727 billion in the week ending 7 February." ET. So, the RBI is directly financing government borrowing as well as injecting liquidity by borrowing dollars. It may seem like a game but playing with currencies is not a good idea. According to the Bank of International Settlements foreign exchange trading and over the counter (OTC) derivatives trading reached $96 trillion per day in April 2-25, with the US dollar figuring in 89% of all forex trades. This is more than 10 times the entire RBI reserves - in just one day. A sudden spike in inflation or a fall in the rupee could seriously upset RBI's clever tricks. The bond market is whispering. Listen carefully.