Social Responsibility.

"Maharashtra Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Tukaram Mundhe has said markups of up to 2,800% on everyday medical consumables used in hospitals 'need to be explained properly'. He has asked the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) to examine whether these should be brought under price control." NDTV. "Union Minister Mansukh Mandaviya...urged doctors to commit to a 'medical social responsibility (MSR)' once a month, asserting that the medical profession is not merely a business but a responsibility towards society." The Print. What about giving up all the perks worth tens of millions of rupees that MPs and ministers get under a 'Politician Social Responsibility (PSR)'? "A hospital or a doctor cannot ordinarily refuse immediate medical assistance where delay may endanger life. The Supreme Court has treated preservation of human life as a paramount obligation flowing from Article 21 of the Constitution." Law Bhoomi. What about dignity of life, protection from criminals and the right to justice? In December 2017, "The Supreme Court has made a candid admission and said it was 'sorry' for the delay for over a decade in commencement of criminal trial due to two conflicting orders passed by a high court judge in a single day in two different by related cases." The aggrieved victim died during the delay. NDTV. "The Supreme Court has more than 96,000 pending cases, with over 10,000 awaiting disposal for more than a decade," as on 23 July 2026. ET. How many victims are dying miserably waiting for justice? Since lawyers charge per appearance (lawspot.in), it is in their interest to prolong a case as long as possible. Has anyone asked lawyers to charge a fixed amount, however long it takes under a 'Lawyer Social Responsibility'?  On 13 June 1997, 59 people died in a fire at Uphaar Cinema in Delhi. The owners of the hall had made unauthorized modifications, increased the number of seats and blocked fire exits. TOI. The case dragged on for 20 years and the millionaire owners, the Ansal brothers, had their fines reduced in the Supreme Court. Gopal Ansal served just one year in prison and Sushil Ansal was freed because of old age. BBC. Young people were incinerated, the old survived. The dreaded Contempt of Courts Act, 1971 prevents any comment in case it 'Scandalises the Court'. 'Scandalising the Court' broadly refers to statements or publications which have the effect of undermining public confidence in the judiciary." PRS. Officers of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) get enormous salaries and perks, including free healthcare, worth millions. Anuj Jindal. They also get a Dearness Allowance which has reached 60% of basic salary. CNBCTV18. And yet, they are required to pay just Rs 350 for a medical consultation at a private hospital and the government pays derisory amounts for serious medical procedures, requiring very expensive consumable items, under the Central Government Health Scheme. cghs.mohfw.gov.in. For an extremely hazardous and complicated Pancreaticoduodenectomy (Whipple Procedure) (Jason R D'Cruz et al) which takes hours of exhausting surgery, the rate is Rs 24,995, about $260. Since hospitals dare not argue with the government they have to make up their losses from us. Surely, pampered IAS officers earning enormous salaries should pay full fees to the doctors? The FDA Commissioner is right to be concerned about hospital charges. Perhaps he should look at the real gravy train. Scandalizing, isn't it?

Ghalibaf's joke.

"Hours before the US Federal Reserve, the world's most powerful central bank, made one of its biggest calls in three years and raised interest rates by 25 basis points," the Speaker of Iran's Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf modified a decades old Taylor Rule in economics to 'Straits Taylor Rule', meaning a rate hike is not going to increase oil supplies through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. "You can't 25bp a chokepoint. Stay unanchored," he joked. The Print. How droll! He must have forgotten that Iranians are facing severe fuel shortages while there is no shortage of fuel, even if more expensive than before, in the rest of the world. "Transporters say they are experiencing fuel problems they didn't face during the active combat of the first month of the war with the US." The Union of Truckers and Drivers said that "they are now out of supplies for a third of every month." WSJ. "As recently as March, Iran exported 1.85 million barrels of crude oil a day, worth $191 million at international prices." Now, "The government has appealed to Iranians to do their part by limiting their consumption of water, electricity and gas." And to use public transport instead of driving. WSJ. "According to statistics from the Statistical Center of Iran, the overall inflation rate for August stood at 89%, while food and beverage inflation surged to a record high exceeding 127%." "The dollar exchange rate has surpassed the 235,000-toman mark, compounding the major shock caused by the hike in gasoline prices to 10,000 tomans." Voice of Emirates. One toman equals 10 rials, so $1 buys 2.35 million rials. Very soon people will be dying of starvation and this Ghalibaf thinks it is hilarious. Ghoulibaf would suit him better. "Iran vowed to respond to a US blockade by pushing more trade overland." But, "Hundreds of trucks drivers are currently stuck at Iran's border with Pakistan," and "The same is happening at Iran's land borders with Turkey, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, dealing Tehran a self-inflicted blow." WSJ. In desperation, Iran is recruiting support wherever it can find. "Saudi Arabia has closed a critical oil pipeline after it was attacked by drones launched from Iraq." "Saudi Arabia has previously accused Iran-backed militia in Iraq of targeting its oil facilities." BBC. On Thursday last week, Iran's proxy militia the Houthis captured Yemen's strategic port city of Mocha. "Hours later, on Friday, the Houthis captured another key coastal asset, Perim Island, at the mouth of the Red Sea," thus "giving Tehran de-facto control over another key shipping route." CNN. Recently, "New photos...reveal for the first time the widespread damage and destruction of buildings and vehicles at multiple US positions across the Middle East, as a result of Iranian missile and drone attacks." CBS. Three days ago, "Saudi Arabia intercepted and shot down a Houthi drone south of the Islamic holy city of Mecca." BBC. Iran has a history at Mecca. On 31 July 1987, Iranian pilgrims clashed with Saudi armed forces during Hajj at Mecca. wikipedia. So, "With the US and Pakistan rejecting calls for help, Saudi Arabia has reportedly turned to Western allies, including Israel, for assistance as Houthi attacks continue to target cities and infrastructure across the country." Talks with Israel were apparently mediated by CENTCOM. News18. Ironically, "Palestinian Islamist group Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed about 1,400 people aimed to disrupt a potential normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia sought by Riyadh, US President Joe Biden said." Reuters. Yesterday, "A car-bomb attack on a mosque at a police compound in north-western Pakistan has killed at least 21 people and injured more than 100." The attack was blamed on Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). BBC. And so, after Gaza and Iran almost destroyed, with the Pakistani army in danger of losing control inside the country and the US Hollywood army imitating sitting ducks, Saudi Arabia may reach a deal with Israel. Israel has the guts, knowledge, intelligence and experience to win the war. The US and Gulf states should give it full support. Does Ghoulibaf have a joke for that?   

Growth in rupees, GDP in dollars.

"The Federal Reserve raised interest rates...and flagged more hikes to come in the coming months," as "an energy shock following the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, and capital spending from the artificial intelligence boom has kept price pressures intense enough that the Fed felt it needed to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range." Reuters. This had an immediate effect on India. "Sovereign bond yields surged at the open on 17 September, while the rupee tumbled past the 96 dollar mark," and "The benchmark 10-year bond yield climbed to 7.0714% in early trade, up from 7.0524% in the previous session, as bond prices fell." MC. Why does a rise of just 0.019% in government bond yields create such panic? Because, in the 2026-27 Budget, "The government has pegged India's net market borrowing at Rs 11.7 trillion for the next fiscal year, slightly below the level in 2025-26, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said." ET. If you add 0.19% of Rs 11.7 trillion to overall fiscal borrowing and the national debt it does seem like a reason to panic about. "The Indian rupee breached the 96 mark against the dollar for the first time in nearly eight weeks," but, "the currency recovered from its lows to close at 95.93 per dollar, nearly flat from its previous close. Traders said that state-run banks likely sold dollars on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) behalf, which helped cushion the rupee's fall." FE. "The rupee may need to depreciate further to adjust to the sustained terms of trade shocks even as the trade-weighted real effective exchange rate (REER) fell to 91.75, a level last seen during the 2013 taper tantrum, Axis Bank said in a research report. The rupee has weakened nearly 6% this year." "The RBI is estimated to have sold $250 billion since mid-2023 to defend the local currency, nearly double of the inflows seen through the dedicated dollar-inflows program run between June and August." ET. Who gains when the RBI supports the rupee by selling dollars borrowed at over 6% interest rate (IDBI Bank)? "Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) pulled out nearly Rs 51.09 billion from Indian government securities under the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) in three days through September 15, amid rising crude prices, elevated US bond yields and renewed pressure on the rupee." TT. When they convert their proceeds they get more dollars because the RBI is pushing the rupee up. So, we the taxpayers are paying usurious interest to non-resident Indians (NRI) to borrow dollars and then transferring more of those precious dollars to FPIs because of an artificially stronger rupee by the RBI. The rupee is weak because, "The gap between Indian and US 10-year government bond yields has narrowed to nearly half its long-term average, raising the prospect that a shrinking yield premium could make the Indian debt less attractive to foreign investors and add pressure on the rupee." MC. The reason for the narrow yield spread between the US and India is because the RBI cut it policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) in December 2025 for a cumulative reduction of 125 bps for the whole year, despite noting real GDP growth of 8.2% in Q2:2025-26 (July-September 2025) and projecting real GDP growth of 7.3% in fiscal 2025-26. RBI projected consumer price (CPI) inflation at 3.9% at Q1 and 4% at Q2 of 2026-27. rbi.org.in. In reality, "India's retail inflation has accelerated to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July," while, "wholesale inflation edged up to 9.92% in August from 9.78% in July." ET. The Fed is focused on inflation, the RBI is like a deer in headlights (wiktionary). Growth is measured in rupees, while the GDP is expressed in dollars (IMF). Rupee sinks, GDP sinks. Growth stunted.     

Self before service.

"Calling upon the 'Gen Z' and 'Gen Alpha' generations to assume leadership and shoulder responsibility, Union Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...urged young graduates to put the nation first and ask what they can contribute to the country rather than asking what the country has done for them." ET. Oh please! John F Kennedy you are most emphatically not. On 20 January 1960, President Kennedy said in his inaugural speech, "Ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country." archives.gov. Kennedy commanded Petrol Torpedo (PT) boat 109 during World War II. On 2 August 1943, PT109 was rammed by a Japanese warship and exploded. Kennedy, who had been a member of the Harvard University swim team, swam for over three hours towing an injured sailor. wikipedia. What has Dear Leader risked for India? Please enumerate. And yet, in September 2022, FM Sitharaman "found fault with the Telangana government for not displaying the picture  of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the fair price shops where rice is distributed to the people below poverty line free of cost." HT. As finance minister surely she is aware that we taxpayers are paying for this election handout? As our children cannot contribute to the nation without education, they were protesting at Jantar Mantar against leak of exam questions when your government hunted them down with pellet guns (BBC) which cause permanent disabilities like blindness. Perhaps if the present lot step down others will get a chance to lead. Two days back, FM Sitharaman "challenged tax professionals and industry bodies to move beyond demands for exemptions and lower rates, asking them to identify provisions that no longer serve the tax system even when their own sectors benefit from them." ET. Why don't our leaders lead by example by trimming all the perks, some of them for life, that they get. Perhaps, if taxes are fair and sensible people would pay. In 2024, you forced the owner of the famous vegetarian restaurant Sree Annapoorna in Coimbatore to apologize in public because he joked, "Madam, a bun doesn't attract GST, but when cream is applied to make it a cream bun, it attracts 12% GST. Customers now say, 'You bring the bun and cream separately, and I'll make the cream bun." TOI. "A few large private banks, along with top law firms wealth managers, are ducking an unwritten ban to handhold Indian promoter and business families to set up family offices in Singapore and other jurisdictions." ET. We do not object to paying tax, but we get nothing for the taxes we pay. "If you look closely at India's macroeconomic indicators - such as the growth rate, inflation numbers, etc. - they project a story of robust financial discipline and economic growth. However, the average household budget portrays a far more fragile reality." "Families are increasingly relying on credit card debt, personal loans, and loans raised against gold to fill the gap between growing expenses and stagnant incomes," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan & Srisonia Subramonian. Ms Sitharaman has been finance minister since 30 May 2019 (wikipedia) when the Indian rupee was at 72.15 against on US dollar  (worldtradescanner), while today $1 buys Rs 95.87 (xe.com), a collapse of 32.875% in just seven years. In panic, the RBI has asked banks to borrow $127.2 billion from non-resident Indians (NRI) (Mint) at an exorbitant rate of interest of up to 7%. (Macroindicators). Not a proud record is it? No wonder economist Parikala Prabhakar has joined the "Zero BJP Movement". News Nine. No one likes a brutal fascist  government. Service before self, is our army's motto. The government is the opposite. It will fail.

RBI vs the Fed.

In his speech at Jackson Hole, new US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh "made two things clear: One, it is the 'Fed's job to deliver stable prices,' And two, with US inflation running above its 2% target, the central bank's 'predominant focus right now should be on prices'." "In India too, when it comes to inflation, the buck stops with its central bank under the regime we adopted a decade ago." Mint. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in the US was at 3.4% year-on-year in August. bls.gov. "India's retail inflation has accelerated to 4.82% in August 2026 from 4.45% in July, as food prices and other key components of the consumer basket exerted pressure on the economy." Actually, food inflation was relatively less to blame at 5.95% and could be partly caused by the transport services for goods at 14.64%. Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services went up by 15.17% while "inflation in other personal effects stood at 44.56%." ET. "India's wholesale prices rose 9.92%year-on-year in August," with manufactured products up by 8.37%, fuel and power by 22.93% and petroleum and natural gas by a whopping 34.41%. Producer prices in August rose 9.8% y-on-y, according to Reuters calculation. In the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), with 2022-23 as the base year, the weight of Primary Articles is at 22.62%, fuel and power at 13.15% and manufactured products at 64.23%. Anantam IAS. "The Producer Price Index (PPI) "reflects the cost at which goods are sold at the production level before they reach consumers. The PPI covers a wide range of sectors, including mining, manufacturing and agriculture." Bajaj Finance. If input prices as reflected by the WPI and wholesale manufactured prices in PPI are rising at near double digits its only a matter of time before retail prices rise by at least the same amount, or by even more as retailers add their own profits when selling to consumers. "There has been a growing body of evidence that wholesale inflation tends to move towards consumer inflation during episodes of divergence. And headline consumer price inflation moves towards core inflation when there is a substantial gap between the two." Core inflation was at 3.9% in July, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) undertook to cover hedging costs as it asked Banks to borrow foreign exchange by promising higher interest to non-resident Indians (NRIs).  "Banks have received $127.3 billion in FCNR(B) deposits since June, marking a strong response to the RBI's scheme and taking total inflows to $136.4 billion." MC. It was necessary because, "net foreign direct investment has collapsed from $44 billion in 2020-21 to virtually zero. Foreign portfolio investors pulled out nearly $29 billion from Indian markets in 2026 alone, on top of $18 billion the previous year. The rupee was weakening fast." But, "These dollar inflows, converted to rupees, have contributed to a record surplus, close to Rs 10 trillion in the banking system. To prevent this from fuelling inflation or reckless lending, the RBI must mop it up by selling government bonds. That pushes bond prices down and yields up, raising the government's own borrowing costs, of which the interest cost is already at a staggering 40% of all revenues," wrote Ajit Ranade. The RBI's refusal to increase interest rate, to keep government borrowing costs low, has led it to such expensive maneuvers, which will lead to higher yields on GOI bonds, which means higher borrowing costs. The RBI may think it is in control but Kevin Warsh can overrule it. "The 10-year (US) Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.994% after rallying as high as 5.03%. in.investing.com. The Fed could make all RBI's efforts useless. Who will pay for this folly? The hapless taxpayer.      

Digital has no substance.

"De-dollarisation was one of the most-discussed topics ahead of the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi. However, like previous summits, BRICS did not come up with a proposal for a common unified currency. Instead, the grouping encouraged the New Development Bank (NDB) to expand financing in local currencies." News18. Central banks have been reducing their dollar holdings anyway. A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) found that, "More of the world's central banks plan to cut dollar allocations than increase them in the coming decade as political risks associated with the US currency rise." But, "There is no clear alternative to the dollar and it has rallied 3% this year, driven by higher US interest rates, a thirst for US assets and a flight to safety sparked by the US-Iran war." Reuters. The value of the dollar is rising because of the US attack on Iran, increasing the price of oil and causing global inflation. What an irony! However, "Over the past few years, central banks have been quietly buying up significant quantities of gold," "led by Russia, China, Turkey, India and Kazakhstan," and now hold "more than 36,000 tonnes." The Conversation. France and Germany transferred their gold back home from the US, while "The Dutch sold about 59 tonnes in New York and then bought more stocks in London," which they stored in the Bank of England. BBC. To reduce dependence on the dollar, "India is likely to pitch seamless cross-border digital payments and greater adoption of central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, among BRICS members at the summit." India does not favor a BRICS currency to replace the dollar. ET. Recently, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman urged the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to further advance its wholesale and retail digital rupee pilots as adoption of tekenisation gains ground in the financial markets." ET. CBDCs are issued by central banks and, "Unlike cryptocurrencies, which are decentralized and volatile, CBDCs aim to provide stability and are government backed." "Privacy is one of the most significant drivers behind cryptocurrency. CBDCs would require an appropriate amount of intrusion by authorities to monitor for financial crimes." "Cryptocurrencies have been the target of hackers and thieves. A central bank-issued digital currency would likely attract the same crowd of thieves." Investopedia. "Hackers thought to be for the North Korean regime have successfully converted at least $300 million of their record-breaking $1.5 billion crypto heist to unrecoverable funds." "Experts say that the infamous hacking team is working nearly 24 hours a day - potentially funnelling the money into the regime's military development." BBC. Will the RBI guarantee a full refund if someone's account is hacked? In April, "The central bank is seeking to rein in rupee volatility through enhanced oversight of foreign-exchange markets and by tightening norms governing banks' participation in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) segment." "Traded mainly in financial centers such as Singapore and London, rupee NDF contacts are settled in dollars between non-resident counterparties, limiting the central bank's ability to directly influence volumes, pricing or positioning." ET. If an Indian company pays for imports with a large amount of rupee CBDC how will the RBI control what the foreign company does with it? Finally, what happens if Iran, a member of BRICS, insists on paying for imports at the official exchange rate of the rial instead of the market rate through its CBDC? While the official rate is 1.375 million Iranian rials to one dollar (Paytm), the market rate is 2.305 million to one dollar (Alanchand). CBDC has no substance. Junk it. Dollars are real. Stick to it.  

Back to normal.

India hosted the 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi on 12-13 September. "Today BRICS comprises 11 countries: Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the UAE. Collectively, these members represent 49.5% of the global population, 40% of the global GDP and 26% of global trade." pib.gov.in. Of all the members, China's economy, with a GDP of $20.85 trillion (IMF), is greater than the other 10 combined, and, at 2,889.5 million, the combined populations of India and China  (worldometer), is greater than all the rest combined. "Chinese President Xi Jinping told PM Narendra Modi the current momentum in bilateral ties anchored in resumption of institutional exchanges, expanding cooperation agenda and increasing trade is hard-won and deserves to be cherished." TOI. Of course he would cherish it because, in 2025-26, India's exports to China rose 36.62% to $19.47 billion while imports rose 16.03% to $131.63 billion, giving a difference of $112.16 billion in favor of China. ET. Despite a wide difference of opinions, India succeeded in getting a joint declaration which condemned the Pahalgam attack without naming anyone responsible, called for restraint in the Middle East, opposed tariffs and carbon tax and asked Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. India Today. So anodyne that no one can find a flaw. Photos of Delhi's makeover have gone viral: "recliner lounges with no rush, market corridors clear of hawkers for the first time in years, curated regional gifts for delegates. But behind the wonder is a sharper, more familiar Delhi question - why does the city only look this good when the world is watching?" News18. It is not the whole city, only highly selected areas where foreigners will be shepherded. Come to the middle class area of Vasant Kunj, South Delhi, a 20-minute drive from the airport, and see broken roads, piles of strewn garbage, and uncontrolled, dangerous extensions to buildings everywhere. While delegates were receiving curated gifts, "A YouTuber in Uttar Pradesh's Bijnor was allegedly thrashed and chased down after  he posted videos highlighting the condition of roads and other civic issues in a village. The victim claimed the attack was carried out by the husband of a village head and his supporters." HT. Villages are administered by an elected body known as the Panchayat and one-third of the seats are reserved for women by law. ECI. However, women are put forward for show while their husbands run the Panchayat in the backward areas of north India. "This phenomenon, described as the 'Pradhan Pati' (husband of the chief) or 'Mukhiya Pati' practice (where husbands of women village heads do proxy governance for their wives), has long been explained as a distortion expected to recede as representation deepens." SAM. Foreigners know the real state of India. If BRICS "becomes an effective group at all, it is likely to become one that China will use to promote its interest and isolate India, and to undermine India's interest in the Indo-Pacific." "India's interest thus lies in sabotaging BRICS to the extent it can, lest it becomes a juggernaut that flattens India's interest," wrote Rajesh Rajagopalan. Not to worry, BRICS is just a talking shop with numerous photos of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with heads of governments. "What does BRICS do? "Mostly, it is a messaging platform. Countries use it to signal to the US and the West. Where a member can negotiate with Washington, it negotiates, bilaterally and quietly. Where it does not agree, cannot agree, or will not agree, it comes to a forum like BRICS and makes a polemical statement," wrote Happymon Jacob. While the gala dinner hosted by Mr Modi, skipped by Xi Jinping (TOI), was in progress, "Amid a high alert in Delhi, more than 20 men went on a late-night rampage in northeast Delhi's Nand Nagri, pelting stones and opening fire at three or four houses before damaging vehicles and fleeing the area." India Today. Now that the furriners have left, Delhi can go back to being the filthy, crumbling, lawless, violent, brutal and uncivilized city that it actually is. Phew, what a relief!   

Xi Jinping and Putin were smiling.

"The desperate pleas for air cover from Yemeni generals started coming mid-morning on Thursday (10 September). An advance by the Iran-backed Houthis toward Yemen's strategic port city of Mocha was in full swing," but the air support never came. "Hours later, on Friday, the Houthis captured another key coastal asset, Perim Island, at the mouth of the Red Sea. The island splits the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in two, giving Tehran de facto control over another key shipping route." CNN yesterday. Two days previously, "Stepping on to the Yemeni island of Perim is to relive history." "For Perim Island sits in the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, a geopolitical pinchpoint that's taken on an outsized importance since US President Donald Trump's war with Iran effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz." CNN. While the Americans and the Saudis seem to be completely clueless against an armed Shia militia group whose total membership was around 350,000 in 2024 (wikipedia), "Israel's military says it has destroyed a large underground complex operated by Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon." "The blast triggered seismic activity equivalent to a magnitude 4.1 earthquake, according to the US Geological Survey." The tunnel "included a command center used by Hezbollah's Badr unit and contained dozens of rockets, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as anti-tank weapons, mines and explosives." Israel lost 40 soldiers and four civilians in the fighting. BBC. Hezbollah is a Shia militia group in Lebanon (Britannica) which, like the Houthis in Yemen, is a proxy for Iran. Three weeks ago, "Iran has warned the United States that it would respond forcefully to an Israeli offensive on a mountainous ridge in Southern Lebanon where Iranian military personnel are holed up alongside Hezbollah fighters." Reuters. Not any longer. Israel has cleared the rubbish out. A ferocious Israeli revenge has left Hamas, the perpetrators of the surprise, unprovoked attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 which killed 828 civilians (including 36 children) and 367 members of the armed forces, while 251 people were taken hostage (wikipedia), are a much depleted group. "Gaza is destroyed. The movement's leaders have been targeted. Its military structure has been badly hit. Its ability to govern has declined." But, "Hamas has come out of this war as a different movement: weaker militarily, heavier politically, and more dependent on its ability to survive than on its ability to govern." MEM. In short, it is just a criminal gang now. Meanwhile, "Iran has resumed its production of ballistic missiles using stockpiled components and working in underground facilities," despite the fact that "The US and Israel severely diminished Iran's missile program early in the war with thousands of strikes." "Satellite imagery shows that Iran is rebuilding everything from bridges and roads to production sites at a pace that is worrying Israel." WSJ. At the same time, "ordinary Iranians who are already struggling with a plunging currency, worsening joblessness and rising prices for everything from food to trash bags," have also to pay higher prices to fill their cars as, "the government doubled some gasoline prices to the equivalent of $0.04 a liter. Filling a tank after the cheapest rations are exhausted could now cost $2 for a car and $5 for a truck, a drain for Iranians." WSJ. Since the beginning of the war, 18 US service members have died and 757 injured (CNN), not because of any heroic attacks on Iranian positions by US troops, but because they were killed or injured by Iranian missiles and drones while hiding in bunkers. US generals seem terrified of involving soldiers in any fighting and rely solely on indiscriminate bombing which kill civilians and destroy infrastructure while leaving Iranian underground facilities intact. So, US soldiers are sitting ducks. Now, "Things have gotten so bad that the Pentagon has transferred weapons stored in Asia and Europe stockpiles in the Middle East." cfr.org. No wonder both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin were smiling broadly in Delhi yesterday (NDTV). Israel lost 40 soldiers to defeat Hezbollah and Iranian army personnel. The US lost 18 soldiers and 757 injured doing nothing. The regime cannot afford to lose. It will try to kill as many as it can. Hiding in bunkers is no solution. Ask Israel. It knows how to win.    

It's not Putin, or Trump.

"President Donald Trump said he did not regret going to war against Iran despite the impact the conflict may have on the November US midterm elections." "Trump reiterated his thinking the war will end immediately after the midterm elections." ET.  "Global markets came under renewed pressure...as a sharp jump in oil prices intensified inflation fears, pushing bond yields higher and raising expectations that central banks may be forced to keep interest rates elevated for longer." Brent crude futures surged nearly 6% overnight to $109.97 a barrel." News18. Yield of US 10-year Treasuries jumped to 4.965, perilously close to 5%. Investing.com. "Indian government bonds plunged in opening deals today," as "The 10-year benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yields hit 7.0211% after closing at 6.9762% yesterday." ET. That is a spread of just over 2%, or 200 basis points (bps) with the US. In its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its benchmark interest rate fixed at 3.50%-3.75%, while, in its August meeting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) followed suit by keeping its policy rate fixed at 5.25%. Forbes. That is a spread of 150-175 bps. The bond market is hinting that interest rates need to rise. Governments sell bonds to finance their fiscal deficit. "Foreign fund flows into Indian bonds have reversed after an unprecedented spike three months ago, reflecting the combined impact of persistently high global yields, Bloomberg's move to defer inclusion of local debt on a key gauge, and increasingly shortened odds on a rate hikes." ET. "The rise in bond yields is a global phenomenon," as "Investors are selling bonds, pushing prices lower and yields higher." "Bond yields set interest rates across the economy, and a steep rise in yields can raise the cost of mortgages, auto loans and student borrowing." CNN. "The US, UK, France and Japan now confront elevated sovereign bond yields." India seems quite safe. India's overall public debt is at 81% of GDP, the combined fiscal deficit of States and the Centre is at 7% of GDP, economic growth is strong and foreign exchange reserves are adequate. We should guard against fiscal dominance, encourage private investment and R&D and remember that the "current ability to borrow should not be confused with tomorrow's capacity to service debt comfortably," wrote Anoop Singh. This year's budget targets revenue deficit at 1.5% of GDP in FY 2026-27 and fiscal deficit at 4.3% of GDP. Those figures seem comfortable but , worryingly, "Interest payments account for 26% of total expenditure, and 40% of revenue receipts"  (PRS). India's real GDP grew by 7.8% in the first (April-June) quarter of FY 2026-27 compared to last year. Using new methodology the nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, for 2025-26 was reduced from Rs 86 trillion to Rs 80 trillion but, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said that real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, was Rs 81.36 trillion this year over Rs 75.46 trillion last year. Mint. Some of the growth could be due to base effect. On 28 February 2026, the RBI held a record Rs 21.34 trillion of government paper compared to Rs 15.58 trillion in March 2025. This is "tantamount to deficit monetization," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Also, the RBI transferred a record Rs 2.87 trillion as dividend to the government from its surplus this year. Kotak Neo. Indian banks have borrowed $127 from non-resident Indians (NRI) but "have left much of their future interest payments on overseas FX deposits unhedged, creating a source of potential dollar demand that could compound depreciation pressure in a rupee-weakening scenario." ET.  The fact that India is borrowing a huge $127 billion at very high interest seems to be a red flag. All because the RBI refuses to raise its policy rate. Don't blame Putin. Or Trump.