There's no Cobol for AI.

On 5 November, Indian stocks jumped while "The Nasdaq composite index fell 5.5% after Democrats swept the US midterm elections, raising fears that new limits on data centers could slow AI spending."  "Foreign investors bought $1.6 billion of Indian shares that day," because "Firms related to AI account for 16% of MSCI India's value, against 70-80% in Taiwan and Korea." "Some investors now treat that gap as protection." Mint. The IT revolution "arrived in waves, long after the initial investments. They were hard to measure in real time. Something similar is going on now," as "failure to isolate productivity gains doesn't mean they don't exist," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "As the tech advances, investors will increasingly price the expected gains into the shares of those best places to profit from it." "Official stats may not have caught up yet, but stock prices and job ads suggest the productivity boom has begun." There have been several boom and bust in technology companies. In 2000, the dot-com bubble burst. Many companies failed. "larger companies like Amazon and Cisco systems lost large portions of their market capitalization, with the latter losing 80% of its stock value." wikipedia. Today, technology companies comprise nine of the top ten companies in the world by market capitalization, with Saudi Arabian Oil Co, the only outsider at number eight in the list. Investopedia. Amazon is at number five, while Cisco Systems, which provided the hardware for internet companies (wikipedia), has been replaced by Nvidia at number two in the list with a market capitalization of $4.54 trillion, higher than India's nominal GDP at $4.06 trillion  (worldo-meters). Just as the Indian stock market has gained from the crash in AI companies, Indian software companies made huge money from the fear of a global computer crash because of the 'Millennium Bug'. "It was called Y2K (Year 2000) crisis." "Most Indian programmers had learnt Cobol, an old computer language no longer taught in the US." Starting with Y2K, "Indian software companies broke into the big league, they started offering all kinds of software solutions." livehistoryindia.com. Will India break into the big league of AI? While the internet is provided mainly by companies based in the US, such as Google (datacenters.google), Indian AI companies will need to set up massive data centers in India and data centers need many gigawatts of electricity and millions of gallons of water every year (wikipedia). India lacks in land, water and electricity production. In 2024, Minister of State for Jal Shakti Raj Bhushan Choudhary stated in the Rajya Sabha that "India is one of the largest users of groundwater in the world," as "the country has roughly 4% of the world's freshwater reserves to cater to the needs of its population which is around 17% of the world's total." newsonair.gov.in. Land is finite. "India has a large geographical area overall, but not all that land is suitable for development, agriculture, industry or agriculture." landbitt. com. In 2025, coal contributed 75% of our electricity production (pib.gov.in). That is contributing to air pollution, reaching life-threatening levels in the capital Delhi (aqicn.org). The intelligence may be artificial but resources are natural. They are finite. Cannot be increased.   

Shackles for safety.

"Th shift in US Congressional control is a pivotal moment for Washington," but the relationship between the US and India "rests on bipartisan support and consensus built around Indo-Pacific cooperation amid Chinese assertiveness, along with people-to-people contacts and technology and defence ties." "Democrats have traditionally been more vocal, even critical of India on human rights and other internal issues, but this has rarely been a deal-breaker." TOI. Democrat Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal has won re-election. She is "a hard baked 'progressive'who has needled Indian govt on issues such as 'human rights' and 'religious freedom', which have constantly agitated her ilk," and "The strong performance can encourage her and the contingent of insurgents who include known India critics like Ilhan Omar to meddle in India's internal affairs." TOI. Human rights are absolute and not an "internal affair" for a fascist government to grant as a favor and, if her ilk of insurgents put it on the agenda, it could deter the brutes from deliberately blinding students with pellet guns (BBC) or arresting innocent six year old children for asking for better education  (NDTV). Abusive language shows the ignorant intolerance of a brainwashed apparatchik. Jayapal and Omar and their ilk of insurgents are bound by the First Amendment of the US Constitution which grants religious freedom, freedom of speech and "the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." All the rights that drive Indian fascists and their ilk to insane rage. "In an unusual request, two accused in the murder of Haryanvi singer Ankit Baliyan requested to be handcuffed and shackled during their production before a court in Shamli, expressing apprehension that they could be subjected to a fake encounter by UP Police. The court accepted their plea." TOI. An 'encounter' is a euphemism for cold blooded murder of a prisoner by the police in a staged incident. wikipedia. The judges accepted the 'human rights' of the alleged murderers. A speech by Maulana Jarjis Ansari "delivered at a gathering in Auraiya on 29 October, has triggered a political row in Uttar Pradesh after he warned that Muslim houses could be burnt and bulldozers deployed if the Yogi Adityanath-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government returned to power." News18. The BJP accused him of "deliberately creating fear among Muslims and attempting to provoke communal sentiments." Was he provoking? In 2022, "Four bulldozers, parked at the venue where UP CM Yogi Adityanath addressed a rally on Friday, caught the attention of many in Sultanpur." India Today.   Hypocrisy is nakedly brazen, it seems. In August 2022, while celebrating India's Independence Day at Edison, New Jersey, "a yellow bulldozer - a symbol that has become offensive to many Muslims - appeared among the floats." "Hung from the bulldozer during the Aug. 14 parade was a sign that read 'Baba Bulldozer' in the Hindi language alongside pictures of Indian politician Yogi Adityanath." Reuters. Could not be more explicit. In 2025, a veteran Congress leader was accused of treason against the Indian state by the Karimganj unit of the BJP in Assam for humming two lines from Tagore's song "Amaar sonar Bangla, aami tomay bhalobasi" (My golden Bengal, thee I love) because it has been adopted by Bangladesh as its national anthem. Chief Minister of Assam Hemant Biswa Sarma "instructed the State DGP (Director General of Police) to take stern action against the accused members and leaders of the Congress" for endangering "the sovereignty, unity, and integrity of India, such as inciting secession, armed rebellion and subversive activities." HT. Tagore wrote this song to unite Bengalis against British occupation. If the integrity and unity of India can be threatened by the song more than 75 years after Independence it is because this government is just as brutal as the British were. Perhaps worse. 

Need insignia on epaulettes.

"The government could consider scrapping the long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax without significantly compromising its fiscal consolidation targets, as the potential revenue loss may be limited to Rs 400-500 billion, according to a report by SBI Research." "The report has projected the fiscal deficit at 4.7% of GDP, against the government's budgeted target of 4.3%," which would mean an overshoot of about Rs 1.2 trillion and add 0.1-0.2% to the FY 2026-27 deficit. TN. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) "has recommended that the government scrap long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax for foreign equity investors," and "has also proposed tax relief for Indian domestic mutual funds investors, suggesting they be exempt from LTCG if they are selling existing holdings to invest in new ones." Reuters. Investors currently pay 12.5% on securities held for more than a year, 20% on short capital gains (STCG), Securities Transaction Tax (STT) and a withholding tax on dividends, among the highest in the world. "Individual investors lost Rs 916,85 billion in equity derivatives in 2025-26, while their STT bill rose 35% to Rs 66.45 billion. STT accounted for 27% of their transactions costs, up from 13% in 2021-22," wrote S Sridharan & A Raghavendra M. Indians are probably the only people in the world who pay tax on losses. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have net sold nearly $64 billion worth of Indian equities over the past 25 months," but "experts caution that changes to the LTCG tax regime alone may not be enough to reverse foreign outflows. Earnings growth, valuations, crude oil prices and currency stability will remain the bigger determinant of foreign investor sentiment." Fortune India. "LTCG tax revenue yielded Rs 1.29 trillion in 2024-25, up from Rs 722.49 billion in the previous year." LTCG tax is a direct tax similar to salaries, profits and interest, and so "Income from rising share prices should contribute to public revenue too," wrote Ajit Ranade. The government needs to increase its revenues because, "Interest payments account for 26% of the total expenditure, and 40% of revenue receipts." "Revenue deficit in 2026-27 is targeted at I.5% of GDP," while "Fiscal deficit in 2026-27 is targeted at 4.3% of GDP, lower than the revised estimate of 4.4% of GDP in 2025-26." PRS. When interest payment is so high the only way to keep borrowing in check is to increase revenue. Several important states, including Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat are to hold assembly elections in 2027 (wikipedia) and freebies may be necessary to buy votes, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi did in Bihar in 2025 when he announced the transfer of "Rs 10,000 each to the bank accounts of 7.5 million women across the state, totaling Rs 75 billion (TOI)." Some estimate of the PM's largesse will need to be guessed in the 2027 Budget to be presented on 1 February 2027 (ET). "Millions of Indians between the ages of 15 and 29 are either unemployed, forced into informal jobs or stuck in low paying informal jobs. India's demographic dividend is fast turning into a liability." That means fewer votes. "About 10 Indian states have already added a new category for resource transfers: educated unemployed youth. This is in addition to unconditional cash transfers (UCT) to women and farmers, which have become a generalized trend." "It seems unlikely that India's restless youth will quietly accept their lot as a fait accompli, settle for UCTs rather than jobs that provide opportunities for life improvement, forsake protests or demonstrations, and still vote for the same political party," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Elections need freebies, which will increase government debt and interest outgo. That may adversely affect credit rating. LTCG tax and STT are big revenue earners, but may encourage a flight of foreign investors, which is a drain on dollars and devalues the rupee. The RBI is supporting the rupee by selling dollars borrowed at high interest rates. Repaying the debt may increase the deficit, forcing more borrowing. Any credit downgrade will be used by the opposition to lampoon the government and may result in loss of power. Problems! Problems! Much easier to dress up in a camouflage suit with a CRPF emblem on the hat on Diwali day (pmindia.gov.in). Strangely there is no brass insignia on the shoulder epaulettes. Asim Munir struts around with Field Marshall on his shoulders. wikipedia. How dare he? Who won Operation Sindoor (pib.gov.in)? Clue: not that Don. Anything higher than Field Marshall?  

Forget the anniversary. Happy Diwali.

In 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won an overwhelming majority with three-quarters of the total seats in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) Assembly election. The BJP won 312 seats, the Samajwadi Party (SP) got 47 and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) got 19, out of a total of 403 seats in the assembly. wikipedia. Yogi Adityanath took over as chief minister. Born Ajay Singh Bisht "in the village of Panchur in the Garhwal region of Uttarakhand, Yogi (one who practices yoga) Adityanath is the "mahant, or head priest, of the Gorakhnath Math, a Hindu monastery in Gorakhpur." He is also celebrated as 'bulldozer baba' for using excavating machines to demolish allegedly illegal properties. Britannica. It is thought that this thumping victory of the BJP was facilitated by the sudden demonetization of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 banknotes on 8 November 2016 (wikipedia), the same evening that Donald J Trump won his first term as President of the United States (White House). "While millions of honest citizens had to queue up outside banks and ATMs to withdraw limited amounts of hard-earned money, the wealthy found a way to deposit all their ill-gotten wealth through mules." Writing in January 2017, V Anantha Nageswaran, presently the Chief Economic Advisor to the government, "wondered whether the 'ouster' of the outspoken RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan sent a message to his successor on the perils of acting independently or providing independent advice." Mint. Prof Rajan's successor Urjit Patel resigned prematurely in December 2018, citing "personal reasons". "His resignation comes amid reports of a rift between the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government." BBC. It was alleged that members of the BJP had prior intimation and so were able to change their illicit cash or use it buy parcels of land. The total amount was alleged at a colossal Rs 8 trillion. TOI. "Official sources and cheerleaders, who included some well known economists, claimed as much as between Rs 3 trillion and Rs 5 trillion - some 20% to 30% of the currency held by the public - estimated as black money holding would not return." Scroll. Since banknotes are legal tender and a liability on the RBI's balance sheet (rbi.org.in) the extinguished notes would result in the transfer of the windfall surplus of Rs 3-5 trillion to the government. In the event, "more than 99.3% of the demonetized currency eventually returned to the banking system. What remained was mostly the small and pitiful holdings of the poor." Despite an explosion of digital payments the use of cash has risen to 12.1% of GDP and the currency in circulation is at Rs 43.468 trillion as on 15 October 2026. ISI. Since the informal economy employs over 80% of the workforce (Data for India) and operates almost exclusively in cash (MPPSC Forum), the sudden demonetisation caused immense suffering to the poor. However, rejoicing in their schadenfreude, as the BJP managed to convince them of the suffering of the rich, they voted the BJP to absolute power in UP. "In Pew's 2025 survey, 74% of Indian respondents said they are satisfied with how democracy is working - the second highest share among the countries surveyed. But this is not how 'experts' consulted by organisations like V-Dem and Freedom House see it." HT. The reason for the satisfaction may be because of the distribution of freebies before elections, because 65% of the population is youth, of whom 51% are unemployable, the bottom 50% of the population holds just 15% if the wealth and 86% of farmers hold less than 1 acre of land. 180degrees. If their vote is valued in cash then democracy works. The tenth anniversary of the infamous demonetisation coincides with Diwali which is an auspicious day of celebration. So, Happy Diwali to all Indians and to the world.

The Indian Humpty Dumpty.

"Trust both lowers the cost of every exchange or interaction and is associated with higher economic growth." But, the most recent round of the World Values Survey found that "only 17% of Indians said most people can be trusted, placing India 53rd of roughly 90 economies." "Most people" refers to a different caste or community. "Within one's own group, trust is strong and economically valuable," wrote Ramanan Laxminarayanan. One very strong reason may be that, "As many as 250 (46%) of the 542 newly elected members of Parliament (MPs) had declared criminal cases against them at the time of filing their nominations, data from the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) charges." Also, "MPs from as many as 504 out of these 541 seats had assets worth Rs 10 million or more, with 30 of them declaring total assets Rs 1 billion or more," wrote Manjul Paul. Because of the protection against criminal prosecution on being elected an MP, as well as spending well above legal limits to win an election, they resort to lies, denials and force to cling on the power. This is proven by the fact that no one resigns in India, either because they disagree with Dear Leader or because of loss of reputation, while there is a long list of people who resigned from high posts in the second Trump administration. Marty Makary resigned in protest while Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned "following workplace misconduct allegations." wikipedia. The only minister who was forced to resign by weeks of protest was the Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan (BBC) but only after government goons viciously beat up protesters with wooden sticks, batons and tear gas and caused permanent life-altering injuries by firing pellet guns (BBC) deliberately aimed at unarmed students. To prevent any recurrence, the government has banned all protests at Jantar Mantar in the center of Delhi and designated three other sites which charge high fees for use and are remote enough to be ignored. BBC. "No country is a better exemplar of our global democratic recession than India. India's democracy confounded legions of naysayers by growing more stable over its first seven decades. India's democratic deepening happened in formal ways, through the consolidation of civilian rule over the military as well as decades of vibrant multiparty competition, and informal ways, through strengthening of norms around Electoral Commission independence," wrote Maya Tudor. The BJP is like a hermit crab which uses the shell of a dead animal to protect itself. "When our Prime Minister and foreign minister travel abroad to lecture the world and receive its medals, they do not use the same rhetoric as they do in India." "They go to the United Nations and other fora under a Nehruvian carapace." "They do not tell the world that inside India their policy is bulldozer and beef lynching and CAA and NRC and love jihad," wrote Aakar Patel. Not to forget pellet guns. "The day after his 2014 election victory, Narendra Modi was filmed aboard a private jet owned by business magnate Gautam Adani," showing that "the relationship between these two men - one the figurehead of Hindu supremacism, the other of accumulating wealth - has been solid for two decades, a symbol of two decades of crony capitalism on a scale unprecedented in India's history." Le Monde. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh suggested that the "real equation to consider is 'Modi + Adani = Modani'." TOI. When you can't trust your government or businesses you rely on those within your group or those vouched for by an acquaintance. Trust is Humpty Dumpty. Once broken, can't be fixed.    

Anything digital can be hacked.

"Binance, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange worked...to shore up public confidence after a record $6.3 billion hack of its platform," "which analysts blamed on North Korea and said could be the largest financial heist of all time." Reuters. "Last year, attackers stole $2.9 billion worth of cryptocurrency across nearly 150 attacks, according to researchers at TRM labs." "The bulk of the heist unfolded in 20 minutes, blockchain records show, beginning shortly after 2000 GMT. Once the funds were moved, attackers raced to shift them beyond the reach of Binance counterparties and stablecoin issuers, which have frozen roughly half of the stolen assets." Reuters. A small group of fast-acting traders generated huge profits as "the hackers, eager to cash out the stolen funds, concluded transactions at steep discounts, leaving massive mismatches across multiple blockchains and trading platforms." "The more panicked the hackers were, the more losses they incurred, and the faster the traders made gains." 36Kr. The Reserve Bank of India has issued a digital rupee or e-rupee which "is a tokenised digital version of the Indian rupee," and known as Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). It will be used for domestic and cross border transactions and will interact with the Unified Payments System (UPI) through an app. wikipedia. "The Minister stated that the CBDC pilot launched by the RBI in retail segment has components based on blockchain technology," (pib.gov.in) and will be used instead of physical currency which will save money on printing banknotes. "e-rupee wallets are safe and secure. There is a robust cyber-security framework to ensure that the e-rupee is kept secure in the user's wallet. The e-rupee stored in the e-rupee wallet is safe even if the mobile device on which the e-rupee wallet is installed is lost." rbi.org.in. Does it mean the e-rupee is hack-proof? The RBI is using blockchain technology to create and hold e-rupees, the same technology used by cryptocurrencies, so we could be forgiven if we doubt the safety of e-rupees if hackers took just 20 minutes to rob Binance. An exchange worth $6.3 billion would make every effort to protect investors with iron-clad security. "In 1991, researcher scientists named Stuart Haber and W Scott Stornetta introduced Blockchain Technology. These scientists wanted some Computational practical solution for time-stamping the digital documents so they couldn't be tempered or misdated." "In this System, the time-stamped documents are stored in a Chain of Blocks." geeksforgeeks. Perhaps, the RBI is banking on the fact that the Indian rupee is not a reserve currency, which is a currency held by central banks for international trade (Investopedia). As on 21 August 2026, the RBI held 591.333 billion in foreign currencies, the vast majority would have been in US dollars. It also held 18.852 billion in SDRs. rbi.org.in. The International Monetary Fund uses Special Drawing Rights (SDR), "which is an international reserve asset. The SDR is not a currency, but its value is based on a basket of five currencies - the US dollar, the euro, the Chinese renminbi, the Japanese yen, and the British pound sterling." imf. org. The rupee is neither a reserve currency nor an SDR. In fact, the RBI very strictly controls the movement of the rupee. Indians are allowed to take only Rs 25,000 in cash when traveling abroad. Mumbai Customs. Which means North Korean or any international hacker will not be interested in hacking the e-rupee. Except Pakistan and Pakistan based terrorists. Perhaps, the RBI is being too sanguine. The e-rupee could exacerbate our danger.          

Clean and safe cities for tourists.

"If current forecasts meterialise, India could extend its run of annual growth above 7% beyond the five-year streak recorded in 2003-2007." At that time India's average growth was 7.89%, marginally above the 7.83% average rate of growth between 2021 and 2025. BT. But, "India's development models have been based on trickle-down theory which has meant that government policies disproportionately favor the upper tier of the economic spectrum." "India's billionaire population in 2025 totaled 282 individuals," with a combined net worth of approximately $1 trillion. At the same time, "Recent protests have focused on government corruption, the leak of a Central exam paper and the erasure of millions of names from the electoral rolls, fueling anger and despair," DC. In September, a five-storey building at Satya Niketan in Delhi collapsed killing at least seven college students and critically injuring six others. wikipedia. "Building collapses are relatively common in Delhi, with more than a thousand recorded in the past three years causing dozens of deaths." BBC. This is due to rampant corruption and a complete lack of accountability, facilitated by somnolent courts. "Over 7,200 corruption cases probed by the CBI were pending trials in different courts, including 409 for more than two decades, according to a latest report by the Central Vigilance Commission." ET. "Indian cities have literally turned into dust bowls. Silt loads on Indian roads are 25-30 times more than in developed countries, found a 2024 paper by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi and Kanpur." "Most of it comes from dumping of construction and demolition waste in open areas, following little or no dust management protocols during construction, and unpaved and dug up roads," wrote Sayantan Bera. "Over the past few years, India has built shiny airports, multi-lane national highways and metro train networks. And yet, many of its cities rank at the bottom of livability indexes. Over the past year, frustrations have reached a boiling point." BBC. People know that politicians and officials extract hefty bribes before awarding contracts, so construction companies use substandard materials and slipshod methods to make profits. "In this morass of widening service deficiencies and callous civic officials, or indifferent bureaucrats and politicians, the sincere and diligent officer is often viewed as a superhero, a character from the Marvel universe. The citizenry's expectations from the political class and bureaucracy are so low that any officer doing his duty acquires a halo," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. There are many types of mafia in India, wrote Abhilash Gaur. "Sand mafia, tanker mafia, parking mafia, coal mafia, slum mafia, to name a few." "EY's recent 'Shadow Economy Exposed' report says India's underground or unaccounted economy was over 26% of GDP in 2023." "At least 300,000 people in parts of the Himalayan belt could now be living in the path of potential disasters, a new study suggests." "The team of scientists behind it said that the true number of people under threat could be much higher." BBC. A large number of livelihoods depend on tourism in these areas and businesses pay bribes for illegal construction, so authorities look the other way. Corruption has reached the highest levels ever, but an army of semi-literate, brainwashed 'Bhakts' (disciples) (DH) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi react violently to any truth. So naturally, "In 2024, 9.66 million foreign tourists (excluding non-resident Indians) arrived, provisional data from the government show. The number is lower than the arrivals recorded between 2017 and 2019," wrote Varuni Khosla. For comparison, "Thailand welcomes 32.97 million international arrivals in 2025, down 7.3% from 35.55 million in 2024." Thailand Tourism. Over three times as many. Indian lives may be cheap but tourists bring money. Cut corruption. Make our cities clean and safe. Inviting for tourists. Earn precious foreign exchange.