It's a paradox.

"Going by projections by global agencies, India is on course to surpass its 2003-2007 record of five consecutive years of 7% or higher growth, Kyunghoon Kim of Korea Institute for International Economic Policy said." "Following a 5.8% contraction during the pandemic, India's economy rebounded sharply by 9.7% in 2021 and has sustained growth exceeding 7% in each succeeding year." TOI. A report by the Union Bank of India "highlighted that India's outstanding private capex pipeline reached Rs 99.7 trillion in September 2026, nearly 4.1 times its March 2014 level and 39% higher than a year ago." "The report cautioned that project announcements could outpace actual executions." ET. "Even as the conventional tax-paying middle class in India feels economically crushed, the number of individuals declaring an income of more than Rs 10 million has risen about eight-fold in the last 12 years to 324,000." "Taxpayers earning Rs 500,000 to Rs 10 million...saw their average income move from Rs 1.023 million in 2012-13 to just Rs 1.069 million in 2023-24," while "Consumer prices rose about 80% between FY13 and FY24." Which means they are earning 42% less in real terms. "In FY13 rupees, the Rs 1.069 million earned in FY24 buys what Rs 595,000 did then," wrote Nandita Rajhansa & Suarabh Mukherjee. "The 'octopus class', according to Mukherjee and Rajhansa, comprises nearly 200,000 families across India, in small towns as well as big cities, or nearly 1 million people, who control nearly 80% of India's wealth." "A town with less than 0.5 million people will have 20 such families," while "A city with 1 million people will have 50 such families." ET. The study does not tell us what proportion of this 'octopus class' are 'Bahubalis' (strongmen) (pgurus.com) who enjoy political protection. Political scientist Milan Vaishnaw has studied why Indians vote for criminals. He found that a candidate with a criminal record "had an 18% chance of winning their next election whereas the 'clean' candidates had only a 6% chance." Criminals can force a callous and corrupt civil service to deliver services which people want. BBC. "Investment in the Indian Economy as reflected by GFCF (gross fixed capital formation) recorded a strong growth of 11.9% in the first quarter of 2026-27." "The Centre's capex has grown by 30% in the first four months of the current fiscal year." "Investment by India's private non-financial sector (with 30% of the total investment) grew by 7% in 2024-25, jumping from 3% growth recorded the previous year," wrote Rajani Sinha. "Note that India's corporate capex has been stable at 14-15% of GDP in the past decade, lower than 17-18% in the post-2008 period and its peak of 21% in 2007-08." "India's total investment-to-GDP ratio has averaged 33% in recent years. Not only is this better than about 30% in the pre-pandemic period, but also only second to China's 40% among the world's major economies," wrote Nikhil Gupta. The private sector will increase investment only if they are sure of making profits, but India's middle class is not growing. Outside the 1 million octopus class are 800 million people who survive on free food grains for five years from 1 January 2024 (pib.gov.in). "Between the bookends of wealth and wages lies the problematic problem: work and wage," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "A stunted middle class may be a direct result of this extreme inequality. Folks at the top of the ladder don't see the teeming masses as a meaningful market, except for utilities, soap, short videos, and personal loans. Meanwhile, those at the bottom of the pyramid lack the education and skills to manufacture things for the wealthy at home and overseas." Enforced gig work does not create a middle class. "A total of 64.3% of India's population, which represents over 940 million people, are now covered by at least one social protection benefit," boasted Labour and Employment Minister Mansukh Mandaviya. TNIE. If the gross domestic product (GDP) is growing at over 7% and government and private investment are growing it should mean production is increasing. With 940 million on some sort of social benefit demand should be muted, but the RBI is signaling more rate hikes due to higher inflation (Reuters). How can prices increase if demand is low while production is high. The great Indian paradox. Could someone please explain.                

Paying foreigners to leave.

"Indian equities indices snapped their two-week winning streak, falling more than 2% amid concerns over potential energy supply disruptions," as "For the week, the BSE Sensex declined 1,605.44 points, or 2.44%, to 74,729.27, while Nifty 50 fell 546.15 points, or 2.25%, to close at 22,600." MC. "The BSE Sensex reached an all-time intraday high of 86,159.02 points on 1 December 2025." Bajaj Finance. The index has fallen so much because "Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have spent the past two years wiping out almost nine years of buying in Indian stocks," as "From 2015 till now, foreign investors recorded net equity inflows of approximately minus $110 million. That means nearly $63.6 billion since October 2024 has erased the $63.5 billion accumulated during the preceding nine years." ET. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that the recent weakness in India's stock market is partly linked to the ease with which investors can sell their holdings, while asserting that the economy's underlying fundamentals remains sound, according to a report." ET. Of course, investors, especially foreign funds, would not buy into the Indian markets unless assured of an easy exit whenever they wanted. The markets would have fallen much more without the support of domestic investors through Systematic Investment Plans (SIP) which "have held up despite Indian benchmark equity indices correcting around 9% over the past two years." "SIP contributions hit a record Rs 322.97 billion in August 2026." Mint. "Indian stocks are the cheapest they have been in six years. Bernstein still says they are too expensive for foreign investors." "This year foreign investors pulled Rs 3.08 trillion out of Indian stocks. Domestic institutions (DII), including mutual funds, put in Rs 6.83 trillion, more than twice as much," wrote Ankur Choudhary. By pushing up the prices of shares DIIs are helping FIIs to sell profitably. That is probably what the minister means when she says that selling is too easy. "Mutual fund SIPs are fundamentally the wrong product for India," said veteran investor Shankar Sharma. "Equity markets were never designed to enrich the masses. They tend to do the opposite: strip wealth from the many while making a few fabulously rich." Double taxation on share transactions is one reason why Indian shares lost attraction for foreign investors. In 2004, capital gains taxes were removed from equities and Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which is levied regardless of profit or loss in selling shares, was introduced. Thus, "In 2025-26, the Nifty fell 5% and the Sensex 7%, yet STT (collection) still rose 8% to Rs 575.22 billion." In 2018, capital gains taxes were reintroduced but STT was not discontinued. In 2024, tax on long-term capital gains was raised to 12.5% and that on short-term gains were raised to 20%, wrote S Sridharan & A Raghavendra M. In February 2025, Sharma warned about depending on the stock market for tax collections. "I invest globally. I pay zero capital gains tax anywhere. I only pay tax on dividend, which is minuscule. Nowhere in the world you get taxed on capital gains." BT. Between June and August 2026, the RBI raised $127 billion through tax free FCNR (B) scheme (NDTV), at 6.5% rate of interest with lock-in for 3-5 years  (Federal Bank), to support the rupee. Sharma said that this "does not address India's external-sector challenges and will instead effectively finance foreign investors' exits from Indian equities." MC. In effect, FIIs are getting more dollars in exchange for rupees as they sell. 'Atithi Devo Bhava', meaning a guest is akin God, is old Hindu philosophy. wikipedia. We are paying them to leave. That will make us 'sanyasis'. Meaning 'mendicants'. (Britannica). Does the government really want that?    

The real danger.

"Well before the throttling this month of Ukraine's military access to Elon Musk's satellite communications system, the Biden and Trump administrations had several times asked SpaceX to turn its Starlink service on or off in various countries, according to six former senior US officials familiar with the matter." ET. Is this the Aha moment that the government has been looking for? On 7 October, "Elon Musk alleged that Starlink's entry into India is being 'blocked' by certain 'oligarchs' seeking to protect their 'monopolistic chokehold' over the country's people." ET. To that the BJP MP Nishkant Dubey came out with the tired old excuse of "satellite internet service poses challenges to the country's security agencies". TOI. How? By blocking services or by continuing service which the government wants to hide from the people? "Between March and July, there was one blocking order every 68 seconds, on an average, for online content by the government in India. This amounts to around 1,275 every day, nearly 195,000 in just five months." The Wire. During the student protests in New Delhi in July the protesters used Bitchat to get around government blocks of the internet. "The government reportedly wants it shut down saying it can be used for unlawful activities." NDTV. A fascist government naturally wants to control what people say and hear. By October, both Apple and Google had removed Bitchat from their app stores. NDTV. On 10 October, "The crackdown on the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP)-led stir began long before dawn, with security services tracking digital footprints, monitoring high-profile social media profiles and enforcing restrictions." "To counter aggressive phone-seizure tactics and real-time tracking by intelligence units, many key student leaders and volunteer coordinators switched to secondary, unregistered burner devices loaded with temporary data plans." "Volunteers were briefed to clear cache files, disable biometric unlock features, and limit live broadcast sharing until safely away from active security cordons." News18. American media companies do not allow governments to snoop on their contents. In 2013, "Google has issued a strong denial that it allows the US government to access its servers." BBC. In 2016, "Apple will contest a court order to help FBI investigators access data on the phone used by San Bernardino gunman Syed Rizwan Farook." BBC. Even after Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik shot dead 14 people and seriously injured 22 others at a Christmas party on 2 December 2015 at San Bernardino, California. wikipedia.  "Signal, the free and open source end-to-end encrypted messaging service, has become increasingly popular," as "In a recent interview, the president of the non-profit organisation behind Signal reportedly stated that the service would exit a country rather than compromise on its encryption." Gadgets 360. Recently, "OpenAI has acknowledged that it alerted 'dozens' of global institutions that their website may have been meddled with by its AI bots acting improperly." BBC. "AI models under test broke into Indian organisations' live systems and read confidential records undetected, India's cyber security agency said." Reuters. In April, "Israel's intelligence agencies hacked into Tehran's street cameras and used the data to assassinate Iran's top leadership." "First, Indian cities are among the most densely surveilled in the world, along with China. Seconds, many of our extensive CCTV networks were put in place about a decade ago and have negligible security features," wrote Robin David. If the government is worried about security it should mandate that all defence, police, intelligence, civil service, ministers and all branches of central, state and local government will access only Indian service providers for official and personal use. Unimportant citizens, who have no classified information, like us, will be allowed to use Starlink. With the US and China developing advanced AI systems no one is safe. Forget what tie to wear when you are naked from waist down. Beware an upper cut.      

Not little any more.

"Europe is emerging from one of its worst wildfire seasons on record," "burning 699,000 hectares (1.7 million acres - an area more than four times the size of London." "In the 1950s, the countryside west of Madrid, Spain's capital, was a mosaic of crop fields and pastures, intersected by rural roads." But since 1975, decreasing rural populations led to growth of shrubs and trees, creating young forests, and fires are linking up to cause huge blazes. Reuters. Wildfires are being caused by dry weather due to a warming of the Pacific Ocean, known as El Nino, which "can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others - and in some cases both." wfp.org. The temperature of the Pacific Ocean is apparently a record 3.46 degree Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 baseline. CSR. On the contrary, the 14th Century Black Death plague caused so many deaths "that millions of trees sprang up in abandoned farmland, soaking up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This would have had the effect of cooling the climate, a team from Utrecht University, Netherlands, says." This was the Little Ice Age some 300 years ago. BBC. "Indonesia's fire crisis is closely linked to peatland drainage and conversion for palm oil plantations." "The danger is the peat itself: once drained for plantations it becomes extremely flammable and can smolder underground for months, producing choking haze long after the flames are gone." Indonesia has lost over 8 million hectares already. Current Wildfires. All these fires are pouring millions of tonnes of soot and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, making the earth warmer. "By one estimate, peat fires generate three times more fine particulate matter than other tropical forest fires, five times more sulphur dioxide, three times more organic carbon, and two times more methane and carbon monoxide." science.nasa.gov. Meanwhile, Taiwan has shut down in preparation for Typhoon Champi. "At one point a super typhoon and one of the strongest storms in the Pacific this year, Champi was still packing gusts of around 191 kph (119 mph) near its center, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA)." Reuters. In India, "After a monsoon marked by a 13% rainfall deficit," "the immediate concern is whether the strengthening El Nino will compound the effects of the deficient monsoon and influence winter temperatures, rainfall and agricultural conditions in the coming months." TOI. The state of Telangana received 24% less rainfall during the southwest monsoon, while there has been a 95% deficit between 1 and 22 October. DH. Excluding deserts, India is probably the hottest country in the world. "The sale of RACs (room air conditioners) has been growing at 15-20% since 2020." "India currently has about 70mn RACs." "In India, refrigerant leakage and refilling have reached crisis proportions," with about 40% of RACs refilled every year. "The coolants we use today - hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) - are hundreds of times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2) in heating the climate," wrote Chandra Bhushan. Some parts of India are so parched that in April 2016, "A train carrying half a million liters of water has been dispatched to the worst-affected areas of India's drought-hit western Maharashtra state." BBC. In August, collapse of a glacier in the Himalayas sent a wall of water 100 meters high, traveling at 180 kilometers per hour through a valley in Nepal, killing 1,500 people and destroying 100 bridges, 13 hydropower dams and 23 schools. 5,600 people are still missing. news.un.org. Nepal borders India to the north. Melting glaciers high up in the mountains cause thousands of deaths from flash floods now, while dry rivers will kill millions slowly due to thirst in the future. El Nino means little boy. The boy is growing. We are toast.  

Interest in our deficit.

"Unlike in India, where years of lectures from multilateral institutions made economic policy makers wary of running high fiscal deficits, rich countries of the West had no such qualms." "Investors have begun treating France as the 'sick man of Europe,' with a debt-to-GDP ratio of almost 120% (in contrast with India's 80% odd)." "Consider: France's budget deficit exceeds 5% of its GDP, which is more than India's gap of 4.4% last year and this year's target of 4.3%." Mint. "France's 10-year bond yield hit the 5% mark yesterday, a new 24-year high," as "Government bond yields have risen around the world this year, in light of the surge in energy prices that has prompted central banks to respond with high interest-rate rises." "Developed market governments are also dealing with ballooning debt piles." Reuters. India's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 7.443% this morning from 7.016% on 22 September. in.investing.com. "India's central bank rejected all bids at a treasury bill auction yesterday," as "The government planned to raise Rs 230 billion through the sale of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day treasury bills." "Traders said the cutoff yields likely came in above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) expectations." "In the five weeks to October 14, the cutoff yields on the three maturities jumped by 64 basis points (bps), 83 bps and 69 bps respectively." Reuters. On 7 October, "India's central bank raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5%, marking the first rise in nearly four years amid mounting inflation and strong economic growth." Reuters. "Will it be a case of too-little-too-late?" asked Mythili Bhusnurmath. Because nothing much has changed since the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 26 August when it voted unanimously to "wait and see". When "India's federal government on 25 March retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2% to 6%," (Reuters) and "India's retail inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 5.54% in September (Reuters), why did the RBI tarry for so long? "Because, "When the government, the biggest borrower in the system, spends 40% of its revenues on interest, monetary tightening has serious consequences." "India's debt-to-GDP ratio is below that of several major economies, but its interest burden relative to revenues is very high." Interest payments of the central government is at Rs 14 trillion this year. "The fiscal impact accumulates as debt matures and new borrowing becomes more expensive." "Holding rates down can be counterproductive if investors then demand greater compensation for inflation and currency risk," wrote Ajit Ranade. One result of high inflation and a reluctant RBI is the "growing household investment in gold and silver, signifying productive resources being salted away in unproductive assets." While updated numbers are not available "trade data provide some indications: gold and silver imports jumped almost 34% between 2024-25 and 2025-26. Worse, in just the first three months of the current fiscal year imports are up 37% compared to the same period last year," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Growing bullion savings sends another signal: households are either left with no alternative savings avenues or lack confidence in the current state of the economy." Or both. We know that "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the RBI is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org. Clearly, the RBI's actions are designed to help the government. The question for Indians is whether it is helping the government to help the nation or just to win elections. Comparing with France is just a diversion. But it is still a lesson.

STT + LTCG - FPI = ?

"At a press briefing in Bangkok on 15 October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said India entered the energy shock with strong fundamentals and has responded well to it, and that pressure on its exchange rate should not be read as a sign of failure." "It said benchmark interest rates in advanced economies have climbed to multi-decade highs, pushing up the borrowing costs for emerging markets." ET. Since the rupee is essential for every moment of our lives, from food to education and healthcare, its weakness signifies a weakness of the economy and governance for us. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on 13 October that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would continue its efforts to curb volatility in the rupee but is not seeking to fix its value, as the currency faces pressure from outside factors." On 12 October, the rupee appreciated 93 paise, logging its steepest single-day gain in more than six months," and on the 13th, "The rupee appreciated 82 paise to 94.96 against US dollar,...supported by various RBI measures aimed at reducing immediate dollar demand and curbing excessive positions in the foreign exchange market." Mint. Since the rupee has jumped from 96.795 against one dollar on 08 October (in. investing.com) to 94.84, nearly 200 paise, to one dollar (xe.com) this morning, isn't the RBI causing more volatility by its actions? One reason for the weakness of the rupee is the selling of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) who sold a net Rs 2.6 trillion worth of equities in the first nine months of 2026. "The Nifty 50 traded at 20.5 times trailing 12-month earnings on 30 September, down from 25 times at the September 2024 market peak. Yet the index fell 18.4% in dollar terms during January-September, underperforming all six global peers," wrote Mayur Bhalerao. In 2025, even as FPIs sold a net $18.9 billion worth of equities, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought a record $90.1 billion worth, nearly five times as much. In 2026, FPIs have net sold $27.8 billion worth till September, while DIIs have bought $64.6 billion. Mint. The problem is that DIIs are investing in rupees while FPIs are repatriating their proceeds in dollars. So the rupee falls. Even worse, DIIs push up the prices of shares, which gives greater returns to FPIs, while the RBI's support of the rupee increases the amount of dollars FPIs get when they convert their rupees to dollars. "For too long have successive governors said RBI does not target any level for the rupee but only manages its market volatility. Few believe that." "The reality is that the domestic currency will not be relieved of pressure so long as global oil prices rule high (India imports almost 90% of its needs), global bond yields harden, capital imports sputter and the dollar index stays high." Mint. One big reason for FPI-selling could be that in July 2004, "Long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax on listed equity was axed, while tax on short-term gains was cut to 10%, but a new STT (Securities Transaction Tax) was levied in lieu of that relief." Since STT is incurred on every transaction, the tax is generated even when shares are being sold at a loss. In 2023-24, the Nifty rose 28% and STT collections rose 35%, while in 2025-26, the Nifty fell 5% but STT still jumped 8%. In 2018, LTCG tax was reintroduced at 10% and increased to 12.5% in 2024, while the tax on short-term gains jumped to 20%, but the STT stayed as it was, wrote S Sreedharan & A Raghavendra M. Naturally, FPIs feel short changed. When the government resorts to extortion, Indians stay captive but foreigners can escape. The IMF said our fundamentals are strong. True, strongly wrong.

They want the same thing.

Like the 1981 horror movie The Hand (wikipedia), the horrific, shadowy 'Foreign Hand' (Indian Currents)  has been haunting Indian governments since shortly after Independence. Even as, "Security agencies have stepped up their vigil over the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) movement amid intelligence assessments flagging the possibility of foreign interference. Several social media accounts allegedly linked to Pakistan, more than 4,000 social media posts and profiles, and over 500 accounts of being operated from outside India are under scrutiny." "According to intelligence assessments, funds are being mobilized for the movement through various channels." ABP. Pakistan and unnamed others are plotting against this beloved Indian government. What an intelligent assessment! What about BJP's interference in foreign countries? "Overseas Friends of the BJP (OFBJP) was formed about 13 years ago; it has units in USA, UK and Canada. It has been striving to project positive and correct image of India and BJP to the Western world, and correct the distortions and false image of BJP created by its adversaries." BJP. Are they not raising money as well? An American singer Mary Milliben, who has never been to India, but is apparently an ardent supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi (wikipedia) "alleged that the CJP was being funded by US-based donors opposed to PM Modi and urged young Indians to organize peaceful protests against what she described as the party's 'disruptive spirit'." TN. Ms Milliben may relax. The Indian government uses a wide range of weapons from batons to tear gas, from water cannons to pellet guns (Reuters) against unarmed citizens. When the UNHRC expressed concern on mass detentions of protesters, journalists and lawyers and called for restraint (ANI) India's instant brusque response was that its advice was "misplaced" and an "interference in internal matters" (HT). "Detained protesters said that police personnel beat them, hit their private parts, snatched away many of their phones, and deleted photos and videos of the protests from their phone galleries." The Wire. "An NSUI protester from Kerala has alleged that Delhi Police personnel punched him in the face, kicked him in the chest, back and private parts, and strangled him inside a police vehicle after he was detained during protests demanding the removal of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar." He also "alleged that four boys aged 16 and 17 were subjected to similar treatment inside the vehicle, despite not having participated in the protest." India Today. We understand this fascist regime will do anything to hang on to power and as their crimes multiply so does the necessity of staying in control. But why do the police resort to such brutality? The protesters come from the same towns and villages as police personnel, so why the ferocity? Because they want to protect that most prized possession in India - a government job. "A government post offers iron-clad job security, wages well above comparable private sector roles (for instance a government-employed driver may earn four times higher), generous health and pension benefits, high social status and authority even at the lowest rungs of the bureaucracy," wrote Ajit Ranade. Young people spend years appearing for selection examinations for government jobs. In September 2024, 6,000 post-graduates, nearly 40,000 graduates and 120,000 candidates who studied up to Class 12, applied for the post of sweepers "to clean offices in Haryana govt departments, boards, corporations and civic bodies." TOI. The educated protesters rightly blame the government for a jobless economy, leaks of exam question papers (wikipedia) and election fraud. They want a change for a better future. The police understand the regime wants all protests to be crushed, never mind the cost, and will punish anyone seen to be soft on the protesters. Both are fighting for their lives. The regime is destroying both.    

We should offer the fig leaf.

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026-27 by 60 basis points (bps) to 7%, citing resilient domestic demand and robust services activity." "In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF also raised its growth projection for FY28 by 30 bps to 7%." BS. India has signed trade agreements with at least 14 countries, known as PTA, CECA, CEPA and CECPA, which are probably not fully free, and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Thailand. wikipedia. A BTA, or Bilateral Trade Agreement, with the US is frozen. "US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he did not think there was 'something imminent' on the trade deal with India and the two sides have identified 'the universe of items' that are sticking points." ET. Agreeing with Green, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the India-US trade deal talks have hit a plateau, beyond which giving or taking might be 'very,very' difficult." TIE. Trade talks "in the past months have met with complications, most recently a new US law that paves the way for up to 100% tariffs on Indian goods because of New Delhi's purchase of Russia oil." "A deal has also been held back because Washington is yet to complete a Section 301 trade investigation on several nations over alleged excess industrial capacity." Reuters. However, the picture changes fast where US President Donald Trump is involved. "Trump is facing a growing backlash over plans to import diesel from Russia as the Iran war continues to impact global energy prices." "As well as the initial release of 300,000 tonnes of diesel, Trump said Russia would then supply 500,000 tonnes in November and one million more after that." BBC. In an effort to surpass the US economy, "Beijing has been over investing for years, but lately, it has been dumping the excess output it can't sell at home. In the past, export volumes rose with prices; this decade, Beijing has dropped export prices nearly 20%, producing a 40% surge in volume." Combined with weaker imports, China's trade surplus jumped 20% last year to a record $1.2 trillion, wrote Ruchir Sharma. Unfortunately, "The US will remain reliant on China for its rare earths well into the 2030s even as it builds its own mining and processing facilities." "While US output of the two most-commonly used rare earths has more than tripled since Trump returned to office last year, the country can meet only 42% of its demand and within five years will still rely on imports for nearly a quarter of its demand." Reuters. India does not have a rare earth industry nor the efficient productivity to triple production within one year to entice the US. Also, "Events including a US military attack on a ship off Oman that killed three Indian seafarers and India rejecting Trump's repeated claim of brokering a ceasefire with Pakistan have hurt relations." Trump is referring to Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025, in which India attacked Pakistan  (wikipedia) in retaliation for the terrorist attack at Pahalgam in Kahsmir on 22 April 2025 in which 26 unarmed civilians were gunned down (wikipedia). In August, Air Chief Marshall AP Singh said "India downed five fighter aircraft of Pakistan during Operation Sindoor." newsonair.gov.in. No mention of India's losses. This lack of honesty allows Trump to fill the void with his claims. The trouble is that India does not obey rules. "Licensed categories like aviation are rife with policy puzzles. Asset shifts have been wrapped in riddles in fields like e-commerce and infrastructure." "In recent years, though, India has had a boom in outgoing investments, with both foreign and domestic industrial houses investing abroad." Mint. It will be suicide for Republicans if Trump buys diesel from Russia. India should offer to buy crude from Russia, refine it to diesel and supply the US. We get the crude, Putin gets his cash, Trump gets his diesel and the fig leaf stays in position. Comparing sizes of the leaves will not be allowed. We don't take questions.