"India recorded a current account surplus of $7.1 billion (0.7% of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY26 supported by higher services exports and a rise in remittances from overseas Indians," but lower than the $13.7 billion, or 1.4% of GDP, in the same quarter of the last financial year. "However, for the full financial year 2025-26, the current account deficits widened to $25.2 billion, or 0.6% of GDP, from $22.9 billion, or 0.6% of GDP, in FY25." TOI. Excellent example of how percentages can be totally misleading. "One of the most consequential transformations of the Narendra Modi era," is that, "Over the past decade, Indian households have steadily shifted a portion of their savings from traditional assets such as bank deposits, gold and real estate into equity and mutual funds." Total market capitalization has risen from $1.14 trillion in 2013 to nearly $4.84 trillion currently." CNBC. Perhaps, people have been forced by financial repression as the interest income from bank savings and fixed deposits is clubbed with earnings and taxed at the applicable income tax rate. DBS. After the decrease in value of savings by inflation is factored in, the returns from investment in banks becomes almost zero. Can Indian markets go on rising to infinity? If not, what is the ceiling beyond which there are no returns? "India's equity market has come under severe bearish grip again," "As foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continue to dump Indian shares and the West Asia conflict escalates again, leading to higher crude oil prices, the D-Street has started to feel the heat again." TNIE. "For the last two years, the Indian stock market has been a growth ghost town," and "It is precisely because these market powerhouses are wounded that they have now become incredibly dangerous for bears, and possibly ripe for an explosive rally." msn.com. Is this a prediction based on logical market analysis or just hot air to induce people to keep investing in shares? The government taxes every purchase and sale of shares, called Securities Transaction Tax (STT), sale of mutual funds, and options and futures transactions. cleartax.in. As a result, the contribution of STT to total income tax collections has risen from 3.3% in 2021-22 to 5.4% in 2024-25. And so, "Despite implementing tax cuts in the latest Budget, the Centre estimates a robust 14.4% growth in income tax collections in 2025-26, thanks to an unexpected boost from STT revenues." Mint. How are Indian markets going to start rising again? Apparently, "As a violent tech meltdown triggers an unwinding of the global artificial intelligence trade in America's Nasdaq, South Korea and Taiwan, analysts say, India could emerge as the ultimate 'anti-AI' trade, positioning Dalal Street to become a major relative beneficiary and an oasis of peace in a fracturing financial landscape." "FIIs have aggressively abandoned India," and "This relentless exodus was directly engineered by an explosive chip rally in Taiwan and South Korea, which pushed their market capitalization above India's." TNIE. On the other hand, "Indian IT majors, TCS, Infosys and others saw their stocks decline as fears of AI-led workforce disruptions threatened the working model of this sector." The compound annual growth rate CAGR of earnings of Indian companies has collapsed from over 20% to just 5-6%. TOI. Will a collapse of other markets divert FIIs to India? If FIIs lose money they may cut down on new investments and prefer developed economies as they switch to a risk-off mode. Indian markets could fall further as FIIs repatriate money to pay home investors. Wishing ill of others because India has no AI or chip industry is nasty. Could boomerang.
India Dying.
Monday, June 08, 2026
Dead by NEET.
Saturday, June 06, 2026
The US has Musk + 14.
For a few dollars more.
Thursday, June 04, 2026
Don't wait for the gold option.
Wednesday, June 03, 2026
Waiting for good old days.
India's 16th Census - the eighth since independence in 1947 - will see three million officials asking 33 questions to over a billion Indians over one year. "The last census was held in 2011, with the 2021 round delayed by the pandemic and later pushed back due to administrative and electoral scheduling - the first time the decennial exercise missed its schedule." BBC. In Rajasthan, "With the ongoing census exercise throwing up data that differ from government records, particularly on issues such as open defecation and household access to electricity and cooking gas connections, enumerators say they have been asked by senior officials to revisit households and correct the data 'discrepancies'. Several enumerators, mostly government schoolteachers and anganwadi workers, had taken to social media to report the discrepancies and to flag the glaring inequality and poverty on the ground. Some even complained that residents are unwilling to share information, fearing cancellation of government benefits." The Hindu. Paint a rosy picture, or else! Rajasthan has an overwhelming BJP majority in the assembly. wikipedia. An exhibition, curated by Prof Vikas Kumar of Azim Premji University, shows how the country's vast postal system was used to build trust in people. "In the run-up to the 1951 census - the first after independence - the government used a bilingual pictorial postmark" showing "a family of three framed by the words 'Census of India' in Hindi and English." BBC. What a difference. Trust in 1951, while now people hiding facts to protect handouts and enumerators told to cook up data to polish Dear Leader's halo. "Teachers and principals in Delhi government schools have raised concerns over a clash between remedial classes scheduled during the summers break and the upcoming Census-2027 house-listing exercise, saying the overlapping duties" are "technically infeasible". TNIE. "Delhi guest teachers face termination threats for refusing census enumerations duty, citing low compensation (Rs 25,000 for two phases), lack of clarity on expenses and expiring temporary contacts. A DM (District Magistrate) recommended dismissing 142 teachers, calling it 'gross negligence'." The Print. Heil Obersturmfuhrer. The Census will continue into next year. What use are schools without teachers? "For many students in Delhi government schools, completing Class 10 is now bringing an unexpected challenge. Several students and parents in northeast and east Delhi claim that English-medium sections are either being discontinued or merged with Hindi-medium classes in Classes 11 and 12." ET. Classes 11 and 12 are pre-university, indispensable for future careers. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent advice to shift towards online classes as a strategic response to the global energy crisis reveals a significant conflict between macroeconomic needs and educational fairness." "Data indicate a backlog of over 7,22,000 vacant teaching positions at the elementary level and over 1,24,000 at the secondary level." Dailyhunt. The rest of the teachers may be on Census duty. Since children are not learning anything anyway, might as well save petrol. Brilliant. Those children, lucky enough to have supportive parents and teachers, have to go through a broken examination system. "Every year between March and August, India experiences two kinds of heat - one seasonal, the other institutional. The latter is the exam season: a prolonged cycle of tests, results, re-evaluations, paper leaks and admission deadlines that drains students and families financially, emotionally, and psychologically. Unlike a heatwave, this one is entirely man-made." DH. It wasn't like this before 2014, when the BJP captured India. Mr Modi coined the slogan "Achche Din Aane Waale Hain" (good days are about to come) before the general election in 2014. wikipedia. Who knew it would be a destruction of our future. Pre-2014 seems much better in hindsight. Real good old days.