The power to buy.

"After extensive consultation, govt has decided to retain the retail inflation target for the monetary policy committee (MPC) at 4%. For the next five years the tolerance band of 2-6% has also been retained, according to the notification issued by the Finance Ministry." TOI. This allows the MPC of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to set low policy rates by ignoring inflation at up to 6%. The flexible inflation target of 4%+/- 2% was first set by the government in 2016 for a five year period and was renewed in 2021. prsindia. org. However, the RBI kept its policy rate unchanged at 4% from May 2020 to May 2022 when it raised the rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40% (BBC) even though the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate was 6.28% in May 2020, rising to 7.61% in October 2020, and stayed near or above 6% till May 2022 (RI), when it raised rates in an emergency meeting because the US Federal Reserve raised interest rate by 50 bps (bankrate.com). Rising prices mean that the rupee is buying less, or the rupee is depreciating in value. The US targets an inflation rate of 2%, which is the target rate for most developed economies. Brazil targets 4.5%+/-2%, Mexico 3%+/-1%, Indonesia 5%+/-1% and Russia targets 4%. IMF. If the inflation rate in the US (usinflationcalculator.com) stays below that in India the dollar will keep getting stronger against the rupee. The rupee has fallen from 66.46 to one dollar in 2016 (bankbazaar.com) to 92.92 this morning (xe. com), having recovered from 95.220 on 31 March 2026 (in.investing.com). India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $10.3 billion in the week ended 27 March 2026 to $688.1 billion, having fallen by $11.4 billion to $698.4 billion in the week ended 20 March. TOI. Though some of it was because of a fall in the price of gold, most of it was because the RBI sold dollars to support the rupee. In addition, "The RBI's unorthodox move to steady the rupee by forcing a banks to unwind foreign exchange positions beyond $100 million will prevent its slide towards 95," but, "The move will also cause banks with large open positions to lose money." TOI. Following that the RBI protected the rupee further  "by targeting the rebooking of canceled forex derivative contracts and tightening norms around related party contracts." Mint. "The Indian rupee may weaken to a record 100 per dollar or beyond," as "Analysts at Wells Fargo and Van Eck Associates Corp say elevated oil prices will accelerate the rupee's decline by worsening inflation and the current account deficit." ET. Yield on India's benchmark 10 year bonds is at 7.129% this morning (in. investing. com), greatly raising the borrowing costs for the government. The fall in the value of the rupee from 66.46 to 92.92 against one dollar means a 59.86% erosion in the value of the wealth of Indians in the 12 years of this government. And, the ability to buy. That is some achievement.

Taxing sins.

"India's economic outlook remains supported by strong domestic demand and improving high-frequency indicators, but rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, pose significant risks, including possibility of stagflation, according to a report by Morgan Stanley." ET. "India's net Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose to Rs 1.78 trillion in March 2026, registering a growth of 8.2% compared to the same period last year, as per official data." Gross GST collections grew 8.8% to Rs 2 trillion. "For the full financial year 2025-26, gross GST collections rose 8.3% year-on-year to over Rs 22.27 trillion, while net GS revenue grew 7.1% to Rs 19.34 trillion." ET. Starting on 22 September 2025, GST rates were reduced to 5%  from 12% on a range of commonly used goods and to 18% from 28% on automobiles, air conditioners, televisions and washing machines. cleartax.in. If collections have increased despite lower rates, it means that demand and sales have surged. Unfortunately, fruit juices, non-alcoholic beverages and carbonated beverages continue to be taxed at 40%. "India's taxation for non-alcoholic beverages stands out as one of the most onerous in the world." "The median global tax rate for carbonated beverages hovers around 18.4%." Also, at 351.9 million tonnes, India had the second largest horticultural production in 2022-23, so lower taxes would increase demand for fruit juices, wrote Aruna Sharma. All these drinks are treated as 'sin' products possibly because, "India is among the top three countries globally with the highest number of children affected by excess weight, with about 41 million aged 5-19 living with high body mass index (BMI), including nearly 14 million with obesity." "The rise is being driven by easy access to calorie-dense foods, sugary drinks and ultra-processed products, along with declining physical activity and increasing screen time." TOI. "A debate around banning social media for children under 16 is gathering momentum in India," as Australia has done, but "Experts, however, warn that such a ban would not be easy in India and could face legal challenges." BBC. Municipalities have to arrange easily accessible playing grounds and swimming pools for children to exercise in. India's middle class is becoming poorer. "A family that lived comfortably on Rs 1 million in 2016 would now need close to Rs 2 million a year." As prices have surged, "Their salary, in most cases, has barely moved. The middle class is on a treadmill, and every year the belt speeds up." BBC. Poverty has a strong indirect relation to obesity in developed countries (Medical News Today) but this phenomenon is now being seen in low and middle income countries as well. As salaries stagnate, both parents have to work to continue the same standard of living, so there is no time to cook. It is easier to order junk food online. What is a greater sin - non-alcoholic beverages, social media, tasty calories without nutrition, or falling salaries? Who should we ask? Government, priests or people. Difficult.            

Make it entertaining.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump delivered a primetime address to the nation on Operation Epic Fury targeting Iran's nuclear program. The White House. The reaction to his speech has been due to hatred of Trump rather than a dispassionate analysis of Iran's nuclear capability and its determination to build a nuclear weapon. "Trump, facing a war-wary American public and sliding poll numbers," "stopped short of offering a firm timeline for an end to hostilities." Reuters. This is not a game of American football whose timing is dictated by television companies. "An average professional football game lasts 3 hours and 12 minutes, but if you tally up the time when the ball is actually in play, the action amounts to a mere 11 minutes." A Wall Street Journal "analysis found that an average NFL broadcast spent more time on replays (17 minutes) than live play." "The average NFL game includes 20 commercial breaks containing more than 100 ads." Quartz, Perhaps, the US Army could show commercials on laxatives after showing a missile striking an Iranian target. Or female soldiers could show how to get in and out of Interceptor Body Armor (Premier Body Armor) without suffering a 'wardrobe malfunction' as in the halftime show at Superbowl XXXVIII (wikipedia). Americans would no longer be "war-wary" and the US government could potentially earn billions of dollars. "While threatening new air strikes if Iran tries to move the stockpile (of uranium), he (Trump) made no mention of sending special forces on a risky mission to seize it." Reuters. Revealing when and where special forces would attack would eliminate surprise and expose them to counterattack. It would be better if they carry body cameras (wikipedia) showing live action, and uniforms carrying ads. Very entertaining. Trump says that the US produces its own oil and has no need to buy from the Gulf. Those countries that do should "build up some delayed courage...Go to the Strait and just take it. Protect it. Use it for yourselves." He was probably addressing craven Europeans who have been protected by Nato, while contributing very little. The US spent $$980 billion on Nato last year which was 62% of the Nato total. BBC. Trump has threatened to pull out of Nato, which consists of European countries, plus Canada.  Reuters. If the US withdraws its troops and arms from Nato countries it would reassure Russia (wikipedia) and would end the conflict in Ukraine. Apparently, Germany is building up its army because it fears an attack by Russia. BBC. This is so much rubbish that it insults our intelligence. Russia has enormous natural resources and would want nothing from Germany. Secondly, Germany invaded the Soviet Union on 22 June 1941 in Operation Barbarossa  (wikipedia). The Soviet Union won World War II by defeating the German Army, losing 8 million soldiers and 16 million civilians. History Ireland.On 24 June 1812, Nepoleon of France invaded Russia  (wikipedia) and suffered a crushing defeat. It would be best if the US breaks away from these lying, treacherous Europeans and eradicates the fanatical Iranian regime. That will end support for terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis, bring peace to the Middle East and prevent further bloodshed. Oil prices will plunge as sanctions are removed on Iran and the global economy will boom. But first, entertain US citizens. Live coverage with commercials. Polls will skyrocket.   

Losing to AI.

In India, "The artificial intelligence (AI) explosion and the adoption of cloud services are growing rapidly, and as a result, our digital footprint is seeing a record growth. Currently our data center (DC)'s capacity is around 1.5 GW, but we are looking at a mega leap, potentially reaching 9 GW or more by 2030." ET. But, this is not creating employment. "Between 2004-05 and 2023, while approximately 5 million graduates were added each year, only around 2.8 million found employment, and an even smaller share found salaried employment, contributing to rising graduate employment and slowing earnings growth," said the State of Working India 2026 Report from the Azim Premji University. India has "367 million young people between the ages of 15 and 29," and 269 million constitute the potential workforce. "Between 2007 and 2017, the share of students from the poorest households enrolled in higher education rose from 8% to 17%." But, "Nearly 40% of graduates aged 15-25 - and 20% of those aged 25-29 - are jobless, far higher than the less educated." BBC. The Economic Survey of Delhi 2025-26 showed, "At every stage of schooling, girls are now enrolling in greater numbers than boys." At primary school level the ratio stands at 107.2 girls to 97.4 boys, at secondary school it is 104.7 girls to 98 boys and at higher secondary school it is 87.2 girls to 78.7 boys. TOI. This is in spite of "the sex ratio (at birth) in the capital has declined to 920 females per 1,000 males in 2024 as compared to 922 in 2023." The national average is 940 females per 1000 males. TNIE. "The overall unemployment rate among all graduates aged 22-29 runs as high as 33%. This rate drops to below 4% after age 30." "Young men eventually succumb to economic pressure and accept whatever work is available. Young women by contrast, often exit the labor force altogether, retreating into unpaid domestic care work. The data shows this starkly: male unemployment falls because men find some job, female unemployment falls because women stop looking," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Across India, the quiet machinery of automation has been reshaping - and in many cases eliminating - jobs that the middle class was built on." Unable to earn a decent income, about 9 million Indians lost $12 billion speculating on the Futures and Options (F&O) stock market, "roughly equal to the federal government's entire annual education budget." White collar job creation has fallen from 11% growth before 2020 to just 1% today and "Across IITs nationally, 8,000 of 21,500 graduates remain unemployed." A family that lived comfortably on Rs 1 million in 2016 would now need close to Rs 2 million a year. The salary, in most cases, has barely moved. The middle class is on a treadmill, and every year the belt speeds up." BBC. "Oracle has reportedly begun a major round of job cuts in India, with around 12,000 employees said to have been laid off and more reductions likely in the coming weeks, according to affected staff." ET. "Over the past three-and-a-half decades, India's software industry has created millions of white-collar jobs, spawning a new middle class driven by high ambition and strong purchasing power." But, "Some CEOs have even warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs." BBC. It's a disaster for those laid off. Humiliation with despair. And, no future.         

We have seen worse.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...said the country's economic fundamentals are strong, and compared to other emerging market economies, the Indian rupee is 'absolutely going fine' against the US dollar." DH. "The Finance Ministry's March Monthly Economic Review noted that economic activity remained robust up to February, supported by strong supply- and demand-side indicators, resilient domestic consumption, and sustained public capital expenditure." But, the Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran warned that "signs of moderation are beginning to emerge as shocks from the Israel-Iran conflict ripple through the economy." ET. "The #Lockdown is trending across India on social media platform X, with users expressing anxiety." and "some posts draw parallels with the 2016 demonetisation, others show long queues outside petrol pumps, fueling concerns of panic buying." ET. On 8 November 2016, the same day our BFF Donald Trump won his first term as President by defeating Hillary Clinton (wikipedia), Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes were banned, as "Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave only four hours' notice that virtually all the cash in the world's seventh-largest economy would be effectively worthless" (BBC). This led to very long queues outside banks (shutterstock.com) and some died of heart attacks while waiting to exchange old notes for new ones (TNIE) probably due to stress. At 8 pm on 24 March 2020, Mr Modi announced a stringent lockdown with just 4 hours notice (cbc.ca), when there were only 519 confirmed cases of coronavirus with nine deaths at the time, causing great hardship for the citizens of India (BBC). In panic, people crammed into shops to buy essentials (The Quint), which could have spread the virus to a larger peopulation. As migrant workers lost their jobs and all public transport stopped, millions of families with little children were forced to walk hundreds of miles back to their villages, sleeping by the roadside and surviving on food and water from local people. TOI. The government did nothing. Following lockdown, from April 2020-January 2021, India's combined merchandise and services exports were $394.96 billion, 10.89% lower than $443.24 billion in the same period in 2019-20, while combined imports were $400.84 billion in 2020-21, 22.10% lower than $514.57 billion in 2019-20. Trade deficit fell from $71.33 billion to $5.88 billion. pib.gov.in. When Russia-Ukraine conflict started in February 2014 (wikipedia) there were predictions of a rise in inflation as supplies of oil, fertilizers and minerals would be adversely affected (grm.institute). In the event, India's exports to Russia increased from $1.8 billion in 2011-12 to $3.3 billion in 2021-22, while imports increased from $4.8 billion in 2011-12 to $9.9 billion in 2021-22. Trade with Ukraine increased from $3 billion to $3.4. India Exim Bank. Taking advantage of deep discounts offered by Russia, India imported crude oil worth $144 billion since the start of the conflict. NDTV. Covid lasted two years. Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. Yet, after only one month of the Iran conflict people are hysterical. Collective idiocy?        

There is no problem.

"Strong growth, low inflation and robust foreign exchange reserves will help India tide over the disruptions caused by the West Asia war, even as the energy crisis has made investors nervous, according to Ben Powell of BlackRock Investment." Mint. As a result of the nervousness, "Foreign investors are withdrawing funds from India at an unprecedented pace. In the 27 days of March alone, foreign portfolio investors sold equities worth over $13 billion (Rs 1.1 trillion), the largest monthly outflow on record." The rupee has fallen from Rs 83 per dollar in early 2024, and from 90.95 on 27 February 2026, to 94.65 per dollar on 30 March 2026. Ind Tod. Prof Ashima Goyal felt that, even with oil at $100 per barrel, India was in a "good space". "What we need to understand is if you deflated it by the GDP deflator or the consumer price index, then this $100 is equal to $56 today," and economic growth will be 7% in FY27 and 6% in FY28, she said. FPI "outflows in FY26, at $16.4 bn, are the highest in 28 years," "India is likely to have BoP (balance of payments) deficit for 3 successive years beginning in FY25 (before Gulf conflict), and possibly a capital account and current account deficit for the first time since 1991," and "India's goods and services trade deficit has expanded at $110 billion from $90 billion in the first 11 mths of current fiscal," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh. However, our macro fundamentals are strong so a Brics+ currency, instead of the dollar, and India's SFMS (Structured Financial Messaging System), possibly instead of the SWIFT, or Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (wikipedia) should manage the crisis. "India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed that BRICS countries link their respective official digital currencies to facilitate cross-border trade financing and tourism sector payments," to bypass the dollar. IDN. If digital currencies are linked how will the RBI manage the rupee's exchange rate? "The RBI's unorthodox move to steady the rupee by forcing banks to unwind foreign exchange positions beyond $100 million will prevent its slide towards 95," but "The move will also cause banks with large open positions to lose money." TOI. How can the RBI force private, and even foreign, banks to incur losses? Can banks sue the RBI? In 1991, the RBI had to pledge 47 tons of gold with the Bank of England and 20 tons with the Union Bank of Switzerland to raise $600 million and the Government of India required an emergency loan of $7 billion from the International Monetary Fund to deal with a BoP crisis. wikipedia. In the week ended 20 March 2026, the RBI sold gold worth $13.495 billion so that India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $11.413 billion to $698.346 billion. whalesbook. In addition, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expects the RBI to transfer Rs 3.16 trillion as dividend this year. MC. Will the RBI sell more gold to obey the FM? With assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in one month's time (wikipedia), the government has cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 each, to keep retail prices unchanged, but has imposed a Rs 21.5 tax on exports of diesel and a Rs 29.5 on exports of aviation turbine fuel (ATF). newsonair.gov.in. Goodbye foreign oil companies. Before Bihar Assembly election in 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi transferred Rs 10,000 to bank accounts of 7.5 million women in Bihar at a cost of Rs 75 billion. pib.gov.in. Subsidies and cash transfers cost the Union government Rs 6.33 trillion in 023-24, up from Rs 2.76 trillion in 2018-19, wrote Aditya Sinha. Women of West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may be expecting Rs 15-20,000 from Mr Modi before the elections. Sell more gold. No problem.       

Is RBI selling gold?

"India aims to attract USD 100 billion in investment and expand explorations acreage to 1 million sq km by 2030," as "India pitched a USD 100 billion upstream investment roadmap and positioned itself as a major destination for global capital at an outreach event on March 24, even as industry leaders warned of geopolitical risks and a complex energy transition." ET. Companies capable of such large investment may be government owned such as Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), Total (France), Gazprom and Lukoil (Russia) and CNPC (China), while ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and BP are publicly owned with no government control. Quora. Offshore exploration is very expensive. So, will the government be able to change taxes at will, as it does at present? "The government...cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per liter each," to keep retail prices constant, incurring a revenue loss of Rs 1.70 trillion if it lasts the full financial year. HT. At the same time, "India has reintroduced windfall taxes on fuel exports, setting a levy of Rs 21.50 per liter on diesel and Rs 29.50 on Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), according to a government order." ET. The Indian government has earned in excess of Rs 40 trillion from higher taxes on fuel since 2015 (ppac.gov.in) which has been a huge contribution to its revenue. While foreign companies may not care how India taxes its citizens, they will definitely object to any windfall tax as that will adversely affect their profits. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $11.4 billion to $698.3 billion for the week ended March 20, according to RBI data." "The fall was primarily driven by a sharp drop in gold reserves, even as foreign currency assets posted gains during the period." cnbctv18.com. The price of gold has dropped from an all-time high of $5,589.38 per ounce on 28 January 2026 (cbsnews.com) to around $4,538 this morning (in. investing.com). Although the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are mum, is it possible that the RBI has sold $13.495 worth of gold from our reserves? "This liquidation outpaced a $2.127 billion rise in foreign currency assets, indicating the RBI may be using gold to manage external pressures or currency defense." "Analysts point out that the RBI's significant forward dollar commitments reduce the real availability of foreign currency assets, potentially pushing effective reserves below vital levels. The RBI's intervention in the spot market to support the rupee, estimated at tens of billions of dollars since late 2024, have limited its capacity to save reserves." whalesbook.com. Remittances from the Gulf, which contribute 38% to total remittances, could fall, putting further pressure on the rupee, according to SBI Funds Management. ET. Will India go bankrupt? It's time the 'godi (lapdog) media' (wikipedia) does what it is supposed to do. Inform the people. The truth.    

Freebies are doubly free.

"The Delhi government has scrapped its plans to procure two air-conditioned boats for VIPs and VVIPs at a cost of Rs 62 million and suspended two senior officials involved in the procurement, minister Parvesh Verma said." HT. The two boats were to be fully air-conditioned, with "a premium aesthetic look with concealed LED lights and ambient lighting", and "customized business class push-back VIP seats" "made of vegan leather with exquisite stitching". HT. It is good to know that our tax money was for "premium aesthetic look" of "vegan leather with exquisite stitching" and not for some proletariat eyesore. Members of Karnataka Legislative Assembly (MLAs) demanded free VIP tickets for Indian Premier League (IPL) cricket matches, with Congress MLA Vijayanand Kashappanavar "asserting that legislators are 'VIPs' who cannot be expected to queue like ordinary citizens." So what if, "Eleven lives were lost during last year's RCB victory celebrations, and despite multiple inquiries, there has been no closure, no accountability, no punishment." DH. Karnataka state assembly has a total of 224 seats (prsindia.org) and the Karnataka State Cricket Association has promised to provide 2 free tickets to each member as well as "a separate stand in the stadium". News18. Tamil Nadu is to hold elections to its assembly on 23 April 2026 (wikipedia), and so "AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami promised to distribute free refrigerators for all rice ration card holders," double "the monthly cash distribution for women from Rs 1,000 to Rs 2,000 and a one-time relief of Rs 10,000 to cushion the impact of rising prices." Free bus travel for men, same as women. TOI. Get elected by promising freebies and then use that for extorting free tickets for cricket matches. Costs nothing to the politician. So truly free. Meanwhile, "Over the past decade, a silent crisis has been unfolding in middle-class India." Because "borrowing has surged at an unprecedented rate," so that "Indians now carry one of the highest debt burdens in the world, excluding mortgages - surpassing even consumption-heavy economies like the US and debt-fuelled growth stories like China." "Today, non-housing household debt as a percentage of GDP stands at 32% in FY25," and "For borrowers caught in this cycle, the mathematics are brutal: Nearly 40% of annual income is now consumed by debt servicing alone." The Print. Citizens have to suffer in enforced silence because, "The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is now able to directly ensure takedown of news, analysis, comedy, satire or commentary (loosely dubbed as 'content') from the internet." !,11,185 items were blocked in 2024-25, at an average of 290 per day. The Wire. Free freebies as bribes for votes. Free freebies for politicians. No worries - it's doubly free. Citizens will be censored. At 290 per day.    

Can't stop now.

Iran has laid down conditions for ending the war. A complete end to US and Israel's aggression, payment of compensation for damages, ending war on every resistance group and recognizing Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. NDTV. Apparently, Iran is drafting a new law to charge a toll on every ship that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Zee News. These conditions should be totally unacceptable for any nation on earth. 'Ending war on every resistance group' means that terrorist groups like the Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis will have a free hand to to attack any country without the fear of reprisal and Iran can charge punitive toll on ships of any country that disagrees with it. "The latest assessments from both Israel and the United States suggest that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive," but "The balance of power appears to favor the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), rather than Khamenei himself." The IRGC is controlling Khamenei. jpost.com. The IRGC position seems to be that, having killed up to 30,000 unarmed protesters in just two days in January 2026 (Time), they are willing to fight indefinitely regardless of how many Iranians are killed or how ordinary citizens suffer. They are probably encouraged by US News media, which admire Iran's strength and the way it has blocked the Strait of Hormuz (CNN), while taunting US capabilities under President Donald Trump. If Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz it will be controlling Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and United Arab Emirates (UAE) because all their trade must pass through the Strait. Map. Except Iraq, with Arab Shias making up about 60% of its population  (wikipedia) and Bahrain with 51% Sunni and 49% Shia (wikipedia), all other countries have large Sunni majorities. It is impossible to imagine that Sunni Arab states accepting domination by Shia Persians. It is no wonder that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been urging Trump to continue the conflict. TOI. Saudi Arabia has built a 1200 Km pipeline from its oilfields in the East of the country to its Red Sea Port of Yanbu which is now loading tankers. ET. Problem with that is that Yemen is at the outlet from the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean and the Houthis may target ships to support Iran. The other solution would be to build a canal to connect the Gulf, from near Kuwait through Saudi Arabia and Oman, to the Indian Ocean like the Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea and the Mediterranean  through Egypt and the Panama Canal which connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans through Panama (Britannica). But that would take years and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Finally, "In numerous ayat of the Qur'an, Allah makes clear." that "But whoever deliberately slays a committed Muslim, his requital shall be Hell, therein to abide; and Allah condemns him, and will reject him and will prepare for him awesome suffering." Crescent. Since the IRGC and Basij (wikipedia) are already condemned by Allah just wipe them out. Or supply AK47 guns and RPGs to the protesters and teach them to use them. At least they can defend themselves against IRGC and Basij psychopaths. Must win against Iran. Or else, the Gulf will be closed forever.     

Jobs before gas.

"Oil and Natural Gas Corporation or ONGC is expected to spend about $18-20 billion for hiring deep-water drilling rigs for what could become its largest-ever oil exploration program." "Last month, ONGC floated a tender for these rigs as it looks to accelerate hydrocarbon exploration under the government's Samudra Manthan mission." TOI. It may seem a lot of money but rent for, "Basic offshore oil rigs like jack-ups typically start from $200,000 to $400,000 per day on average for exploratory wells, whereas the most sophisticated deepwater rigs like drillships could cost around $500,000 to $800,000 on a daily basis." Offshore drilling rigs start at $500 million to buy and drillships cost $1 billion to manufacture, so will cost even more. SOSS. Once the rig is in position, drilling may take 15 days to 12 months (Cosco) but there is no guarantee of finding oil at first drilling. "Offshore deep water frontier: 5-15% commercial discovery rate." Offshore established deep water provinces over 20% discovery rate. Quora. Offshore drilling rigs are manufactured abroad (Marine Insight) and will need to be transported to India, although Drillmec has a joint venture with KMOC Kakinada Marine and Offshore Complex Ltd. India (DDT). India imports 90% of our requirement of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and most of it passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The government has invoked the Essential Commodities Act and diverted most of the LPG from the commercial sector to domestic use. "The hotel and restaurant industry, alongside the myriad roadside dhabas (restaurants that serve Indian food) and eateries that dot our highways, provides a lifeline for an estimated 130 million people," wrote Anand Neelakantan. "The gig economy, often touted as the future of Indian labor, is currently in a state of free fall. Over 12 million delivery partners, the backbone of platforms like Zomato and Swiggy, have seen their daily orders drop by 60%." A household can use an electric cooker but restaurants cannot. "By prioritizing the domestic cylinder (of cooking gas) as a political tool, the state is ensuring that while the home stove may stay lit, the kitchen where the breadwinner earns his wage remains empty." "Data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) shows" that "In the first half of FY 2025-26, India produced 6,219 thousand metric tonnes (TMT) of LPG, while consumption stood at 16,200 TMT. Imports filled the gap at 10,731 TMT, translating into an import dependency of around 62%." TOI. The irony is that since 1970 India was said to have a total coastline of 7516.60 Km but using new methodology "the length of India's coastline has been recalculated and is now 11098.81 Km. (shipmin.gov.in. Just a couple of months ago, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra proclaimed that India's economy was in a "rare Goldilocks period" with high growth and low inflation. DD. That was because of the low price of fuel. Will India produce enormous offshore oil and gas? Once the conflict stops prices of oil and gas will drop. Perhaps, we will quietly go back to imports. Until the next time.   

No more Covid, please.

Speaking about the shortage of oil and gas, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, "During the Covid pandemic, 140 crore (1.4 billion) Indians showed the world how mature our nation is. I am confident that as a nation, we will navigate every situation successfully." The Telegraph. It is shocking that he does not care that, "India likely recorded almost two million extra deaths, in 2021, the deadliest year of Covid-19 pandemic, than it did in the preceding few years." HT. In 2021, a study found, "The Covid-19 pandemic caused excess deaths in India to cross more than four million." "India has officially recorded more than 414,000 Covid-19 deaths so far." BBC. Mocking the dead and the grieving. Unknown thousands died because of a shortage of oxygen as desperate relatives searched for hospital beds and social media was awash with people begging for oxygen cylinders (BBC). On 27 April 2021, "Officially there were seven Covid deaths in Gurgaon. But at the Madanpuri cremation ground, which has been designated for Covid deaths, there were so many bodies that cremations spilled over to the parking lots." TOI. The Holy River Ganga was full of bloated dead bodies  (BBC), possibly because the price of wood was too high for the poor. "The government said "no deaths due to lack of oxygen has been specifically reported by states." BBC. Hope the voters in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, which are to hold assembly elections shortly (wikipedia), were paying attention. The Election Commission of India is empowered to appoint electoral officers at various levels but only in consultation with the State government. "It appears that the ECI has adopted an openly hostile posture, attempting to render incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee a lame duck by ordering wholesale transfers of officers holding key positions in West Bengal." DH. "At least three constitutional functionaries, including the president, have got involved in ruling party's everyday politicking." The Wire. As the constitutional head of state a sycophantic president can do a lot of damage. "On 25 June 1975, the then President Shri Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed issued the Emergency proclamation under Article 352, citing threats from internal disturbances." pib.gov.in. And "when it became certain that he would become India's first citizen, the Giani (Zail Singh) said, with undisguised glee and gratitude, that he would gladly sweep the ground that Indira Gandhi stepped on." The Telegraph. Observing that charges were "based on conjecture rather than evidence", Delhi Rouse Avenue Court discharged former Chief Minister of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal, Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and 22 others. DH. As a result of the fake charges, the BJP increased its tally in the assembly election in Delhi in 2025 to 48 seats from just 8 out of 70  (TOI). The BJP government in Assam has already distributed Rs 9,000 each to 4 million women at a cost of Rs 36 billion. ET. Mr Modi distributed Rs 10,000 each to 7.5 million women in Bihar in September 2025 at a cost of Rs 75 billion. TOI. He may have to beat these numbers in the opposition-controlled States of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Will he? Hope voters reject Covid.   

All inclusive growth.

"Stocks rose and oil prices fell sharply after President Donald Trump...said the United States would postpone further strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, pending the outcome of negotiations." CNN. "The Indians rupee opened stronger this morning (24 March), rising 34 paise to 93.64 against the US dollar, compared with the previous close of 93.98 per dollar." On 21 March, "So far this month, foreign portfolio investors have taken out Rs 936.98 billion from the stock market alone, data combined from NSDL and BSE showed." TOI. As foreign investors repatriate this money in dollars it puts downward pressure on the rupee. "Mutual funds have sold Indian government bonds at a record pace in March so far, " as, "Mutual funds have net sold government bonds worth Rs 356 billion ($3.82 billion) so far this month, a record for any month, clearing house data showed." Reuters. Large number of bonds for sale results in a drop in prices and a consequent rise in yields. "Indian bond yields surged the most in nearly 30 months and ended at their highest since January last year," as the "Yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond jumped 10 basis points to close at 6.83%, CCIL data showed." ET. Higher yield means higher cost of borrowing for the government which would increase the amount it pays in interest. Already, "Data from the Union Budget shows that the government will spend about Rs 14.04 trillion on interest payments, making it the biggest component of total expenditure," while spending on rural development will be Rs 2.73 trillion and on education just Rs 1.39 trillion. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been buying up government bonds to support prices and lower yields. The RBI balance sheet has jumped an unprecedented Rs 5.58 trillion, from Rs 15.58 trillion in March 2025 to Rs 21.34 trillion on 28 February 2026. The RBI aggressively cut its policy rate by 125 basis points (bps), from 6.50% to 5.25% in 2025. indbiz.gov.in. This was done to increase liquidity and bring borrowing costs down. But liquidity has been tight because retail investors migrated to mutual funds from bank deposits in search of higher returns, credit growth has been higher than bank deposit growth (ET) and the RBI has been selling dollars, to prevent precipitous falls in the rupee, thus creating a shortage of liquidity in the system. The RBI will earn interest on the Rs 21.34 trillion worth of bonds from the government which it will transfer to the government as dividend. The government could lend this money to the private sector for building infrastructure thus increasing private sector investment, wrote Madan Sabnavis. How will that work? The private sector will invest only if returns are comparable to, or higher, than other investments. If the RBI is printing money to finance government spending it may lead to inflation, and, finally, it is the government's money going round in circles and is not a surplus for extra spending on infrastructure. If the RBI tries to reduce its bond holding it will lead to a tightening in liquidity, a  drop in prices and a rise in yields. The US Federal Reserve has decided to resume buying $40 billion worth of Treasury bills per month after reducing its balance sheet from $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.6 trillion at present.  Reuters. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra started his term saying his focus will be on "fostering economic growth, ensuring stability in policy making and expanding financial inclusion." BS. These are political objectives for the elected government. The RBI should control inflation, which erodes the value of the currency, maintain adequate reserves against geopolitical emergencies and protect our money from bank frauds and cybercrime. That will be true growth. Not a political gimmick.