The real danger.

"Well before the throttling this month of Ukraine's military access to Elon Musk's satellite communications system, the Biden and Trump administrations had several times asked SpaceX to turn its Starlink service on or off in various countries, according to six former senior US officials familiar with the matter." ET. Is this the Aha moment that the government has been looking for? On 7 October, "Elon Musk alleged that Starlink's entry into India is being 'blocked' by certain 'oligarchs' seeking to protect their 'monopolistic chokehold' over the country's people." ET. To that the BJP MP Nishkant Dubey came out with the tired old excuse of "satellite internet service poses challenges to the country's security agencies". TOI. How? By blocking services or by continuing service which the government wants to hide from the people? "Between March and July, there was one blocking order every 68 seconds, on an average, for online content by the government in India. This amounts to around 1,275 every day, nearly 195,000 in just five months." The Wire. During the student protests in New Delhi in July the protesters used Bitchat to get around government blocks of the internet. "The government reportedly wants it shut down saying it can be used for unlawful activities." NDTV. A fascist government naturally wants to control what people say and hear. By October, both Apple and Google had removed Bitchat from their app stores. NDTV. On 10 October, "The crackdown on the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP)-led stir began long before dawn, with security services tracking digital footprints, monitoring high-profile social media profiles and enforcing restrictions." "To counter aggressive phone-seizure tactics and real-time tracking by intelligence units, many key student leaders and volunteer coordinators switched to secondary, unregistered burner devices loaded with temporary data plans." "Volunteers were briefed to clear cache files, disable biometric unlock features, and limit live broadcast sharing until safely away from active security cordons." News18. American media companies do not allow governments to snoop on their contents. In 2013, "Google has issued a strong denial that it allows the US government to access its servers." BBC. In 2016, "Apple will contest a court order to help FBI investigators access data on the phone used by San Bernardino gunman Syed Rizwan Farook." BBC. Even after Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik shot dead 14 people and seriously injured 22 others at a Christmas party on 2 December 2015 at San Bernardino, California. wikipedia.  "Signal, the free and open source end-to-end encrypted messaging service, has become increasingly popular," as "In a recent interview, the president of the non-profit organisation behind Signal reportedly stated that the service would exit a country rather than compromise on its encryption." Gadgets 360. Recently, "OpenAI has acknowledged that it alerted 'dozens' of global institutions that their website may have been meddled with by its AI bots acting improperly." BBC. "AI models under test broke into Indian organisations' live systems and read confidential records undetected, India's cyber security agency said." Reuters. In April, "Israel's intelligence agencies hacked into Tehran's street cameras and used the data to assassinate Iran's top leadership." "First, Indian cities are among the most densely surveilled in the world, along with China. Seconds, many of our extensive CCTV networks were put in place about a decade ago and have negligible security features," wrote Robin David. If the government is worried about security it should mandate that all defence, police, intelligence, civil service, ministers and all branches of central, state and local government will access only Indian service providers for official and personal use. Unimportant citizens, who have no classified information, like us, will be allowed to use Starlink. With the US and China developing advanced AI systems no one is safe. Forget what tie to wear when you are naked from waist down. Beware an upper cut.      

Not little any more.

"Europe is emerging from one of its worst wildfire seasons on record," "burning 699,000 hectares (1.7 million acres - an area more than four times the size of London." "In the 1950s, the countryside west of Madrid, Spain's capital, was a mosaic of crop fields and pastures, intersected by rural roads." But since 1975, decreasing rural populations led to growth of shrubs and trees, creating young forests, and fires are linking up to cause huge blazes. Reuters. Wildfires are being caused by dry weather due to a warming of the Pacific Ocean, known as El Nino, which "can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others - and in some cases both." wfp.org. The temperature of the Pacific Ocean is apparently a record 3.46 degree Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 baseline. CSR. On the contrary, the 14th Century Black Death plague caused so many deaths "that millions of trees sprang up in abandoned farmland, soaking up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This would have had the effect of cooling the climate, a team from Utrecht University, Netherlands, says." This was the Little Ice Age some 300 years ago. BBC. "Indonesia's fire crisis is closely linked to peatland drainage and conversion for palm oil plantations." "The danger is the peat itself: once drained for plantations it becomes extremely flammable and can smolder underground for months, producing choking haze long after the flames are gone." Indonesia has lost over 8 million hectares already. Current Wildfires. All these fires are pouring millions of tonnes of soot and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, making the earth warmer. "By one estimate, peat fires generate three times more fine particulate matter than other tropical forest fires, five times more sulphur dioxide, three times more organic carbon, and two times more methane and carbon monoxide." science.nasa.gov. Meanwhile, Taiwan has shut down in preparation for Typhoon Champi. "At one point a super typhoon and one of the strongest storms in the Pacific this year, Champi was still packing gusts of around 191 kph (119 mph) near its center, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA)." Reuters. In India, "After a monsoon marked by a 13% rainfall deficit," "the immediate concern is whether the strengthening El Nino will compound the effects of the deficient monsoon and influence winter temperatures, rainfall and agricultural conditions in the coming months." TOI. The state of Telangana received 24% less rainfall during the southwest monsoon, while there has been a 95% deficit between 1 and 22 October. DH. Excluding deserts, India is probably the hottest country in the world. "The sale of RACs (room air conditioners) has been growing at 15-20% since 2020." "India currently has about 70mn RACs." "In India, refrigerant leakage and refilling have reached crisis proportions," with about 40% of RACs refilled every year. "The coolants we use today - hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) - are hundreds of times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2) in heating the climate," wrote Chandra Bhushan. Some parts of India are so parched that in April 2016, "A train carrying half a million liters of water has been dispatched to the worst-affected areas of India's drought-hit western Maharashtra state." BBC. In August, collapse of a glacier in the Himalayas sent a wall of water 100 meters high, traveling at 180 kilometers per hour through a valley in Nepal, killing 1,500 people and destroying 100 bridges, 13 hydropower dams and 23 schools. 5,600 people are still missing. news.un.org. Nepal borders India to the north. Melting glaciers high up in the mountains cause thousands of deaths from flash floods now, while dry rivers will kill millions slowly due to thirst in the future. El Nino means little boy. The boy is growing. We are toast.  

Interest in our deficit.

"Unlike in India, where years of lectures from multilateral institutions made economic policy makers wary of running high fiscal deficits, rich countries of the West had no such qualms." "Investors have begun treating France as the 'sick man of Europe,' with a debt-to-GDP ratio of almost 120% (in contrast with India's 80% odd)." "Consider: France's budget deficit exceeds 5% of its GDP, which is more than India's gap of 4.4% last year and this year's target of 4.3%." Mint. "France's 10-year bond yield hit the 5% mark yesterday, a new 24-year high," as "Government bond yields have risen around the world this year, in light of the surge in energy prices that has prompted central banks to respond with high interest-rate rises." "Developed market governments are also dealing with ballooning debt piles." Reuters. India's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 7.443% this morning from 7.016% on 22 September. in.investing.com. "India's central bank rejected all bids at a treasury bill auction yesterday," as "The government planned to raise Rs 230 billion through the sale of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day treasury bills." "Traders said the cutoff yields likely came in above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) expectations." "In the five weeks to October 14, the cutoff yields on the three maturities jumped by 64 basis points (bps), 83 bps and 69 bps respectively." Reuters. On 7 October, "India's central bank raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5%, marking the first rise in nearly four years amid mounting inflation and strong economic growth." Reuters. "Will it be a case of too-little-too-late?" asked Mythili Bhusnurmath. Because nothing much has changed since the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 26 August when it voted unanimously to "wait and see". When "India's federal government on 25 March retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2% to 6%," (Reuters) and "India's retail inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 5.54% in September (Reuters), why did the RBI tarry for so long? "Because, "When the government, the biggest borrower in the system, spends 40% of its revenues on interest, monetary tightening has serious consequences." "India's debt-to-GDP ratio is below that of several major economies, but its interest burden relative to revenues is very high." Interest payments of the central government is at Rs 14 trillion this year. "The fiscal impact accumulates as debt matures and new borrowing becomes more expensive." "Holding rates down can be counterproductive if investors then demand greater compensation for inflation and currency risk," wrote Ajit Ranade. One result of high inflation and a reluctant RBI is the "growing household investment in gold and silver, signifying productive resources being salted away in unproductive assets." While updated numbers are not available "trade data provide some indications: gold and silver imports jumped almost 34% between 2024-25 and 2025-26. Worse, in just the first three months of the current fiscal year imports are up 37% compared to the same period last year," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Growing bullion savings sends another signal: households are either left with no alternative savings avenues or lack confidence in the current state of the economy." Or both. We know that "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the RBI is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org. Clearly, the RBI's actions are designed to help the government. The question for Indians is whether it is helping the government to help the nation or just to win elections. Comparing with France is just a diversion. But it is still a lesson.

STT + LTCG - FPI = ?

"At a press briefing in Bangkok on 15 October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said India entered the energy shock with strong fundamentals and has responded well to it, and that pressure on its exchange rate should not be read as a sign of failure." "It said benchmark interest rates in advanced economies have climbed to multi-decade highs, pushing up the borrowing costs for emerging markets." ET. Since the rupee is essential for every moment of our lives, from food to education and healthcare, its weakness signifies a weakness of the economy and governance for us. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on 13 October that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would continue its efforts to curb volatility in the rupee but is not seeking to fix its value, as the currency faces pressure from outside factors." On 12 October, the rupee appreciated 93 paise, logging its steepest single-day gain in more than six months," and on the 13th, "The rupee appreciated 82 paise to 94.96 against US dollar,...supported by various RBI measures aimed at reducing immediate dollar demand and curbing excessive positions in the foreign exchange market." Mint. Since the rupee has jumped from 96.795 against one dollar on 08 October (in. investing.com) to 94.84, nearly 200 paise, to one dollar (xe.com) this morning, isn't the RBI causing more volatility by its actions? One reason for the weakness of the rupee is the selling of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) who sold a net Rs 2.6 trillion worth of equities in the first nine months of 2026. "The Nifty 50 traded at 20.5 times trailing 12-month earnings on 30 September, down from 25 times at the September 2024 market peak. Yet the index fell 18.4% in dollar terms during January-September, underperforming all six global peers," wrote Mayur Bhalerao. In 2025, even as FPIs sold a net $18.9 billion worth of equities, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought a record $90.1 billion worth, nearly five times as much. In 2026, FPIs have net sold $27.8 billion worth till September, while DIIs have bought $64.6 billion. Mint. The problem is that DIIs are investing in rupees while FPIs are repatriating their proceeds in dollars. So the rupee falls. Even worse, DIIs push up the prices of shares, which gives greater returns to FPIs, while the RBI's support of the rupee increases the amount of dollars FPIs get when they convert their rupees to dollars. "For too long have successive governors said RBI does not target any level for the rupee but only manages its market volatility. Few believe that." "The reality is that the domestic currency will not be relieved of pressure so long as global oil prices rule high (India imports almost 90% of its needs), global bond yields harden, capital imports sputter and the dollar index stays high." Mint. One big reason for FPI-selling could be that in July 2004, "Long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax on listed equity was axed, while tax on short-term gains was cut to 10%, but a new STT (Securities Transaction Tax) was levied in lieu of that relief." Since STT is incurred on every transaction, the tax is generated even when shares are being sold at a loss. In 2023-24, the Nifty rose 28% and STT collections rose 35%, while in 2025-26, the Nifty fell 5% but STT still jumped 8%. In 2018, LTCG tax was reintroduced at 10% and increased to 12.5% in 2024, while the tax on short-term gains jumped to 20%, but the STT stayed as it was, wrote S Sreedharan & A Raghavendra M. Naturally, FPIs feel short changed. When the government resorts to extortion, Indians stay captive but foreigners can escape. The IMF said our fundamentals are strong. True, strongly wrong.

They want the same thing.

Like the 1981 horror movie The Hand (wikipedia), the horrific, shadowy 'Foreign Hand' (Indian Currents)  has been haunting Indian governments since shortly after Independence. Even as, "Security agencies have stepped up their vigil over the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) movement amid intelligence assessments flagging the possibility of foreign interference. Several social media accounts allegedly linked to Pakistan, more than 4,000 social media posts and profiles, and over 500 accounts of being operated from outside India are under scrutiny." "According to intelligence assessments, funds are being mobilized for the movement through various channels." ABP. Pakistan and unnamed others are plotting against this beloved Indian government. What an intelligent assessment! What about BJP's interference in foreign countries? "Overseas Friends of the BJP (OFBJP) was formed about 13 years ago; it has units in USA, UK and Canada. It has been striving to project positive and correct image of India and BJP to the Western world, and correct the distortions and false image of BJP created by its adversaries." BJP. Are they not raising money as well? An American singer Mary Milliben, who has never been to India, but is apparently an ardent supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi (wikipedia) "alleged that the CJP was being funded by US-based donors opposed to PM Modi and urged young Indians to organize peaceful protests against what she described as the party's 'disruptive spirit'." TN. Ms Milliben may relax. The Indian government uses a wide range of weapons from batons to tear gas, from water cannons to pellet guns (Reuters) against unarmed citizens. When the UNHRC expressed concern on mass detentions of protesters, journalists and lawyers and called for restraint (ANI) India's instant brusque response was that its advice was "misplaced" and an "interference in internal matters" (HT). "Detained protesters said that police personnel beat them, hit their private parts, snatched away many of their phones, and deleted photos and videos of the protests from their phone galleries." The Wire. "An NSUI protester from Kerala has alleged that Delhi Police personnel punched him in the face, kicked him in the chest, back and private parts, and strangled him inside a police vehicle after he was detained during protests demanding the removal of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar." He also "alleged that four boys aged 16 and 17 were subjected to similar treatment inside the vehicle, despite not having participated in the protest." India Today. We understand this fascist regime will do anything to hang on to power and as their crimes multiply so does the necessity of staying in control. But why do the police resort to such brutality? The protesters come from the same towns and villages as police personnel, so why the ferocity? Because they want to protect that most prized possession in India - a government job. "A government post offers iron-clad job security, wages well above comparable private sector roles (for instance a government-employed driver may earn four times higher), generous health and pension benefits, high social status and authority even at the lowest rungs of the bureaucracy," wrote Ajit Ranade. Young people spend years appearing for selection examinations for government jobs. In September 2024, 6,000 post-graduates, nearly 40,000 graduates and 120,000 candidates who studied up to Class 12, applied for the post of sweepers "to clean offices in Haryana govt departments, boards, corporations and civic bodies." TOI. The educated protesters rightly blame the government for a jobless economy, leaks of exam question papers (wikipedia) and election fraud. They want a change for a better future. The police understand the regime wants all protests to be crushed, never mind the cost, and will punish anyone seen to be soft on the protesters. Both are fighting for their lives. The regime is destroying both.    

We should offer the fig leaf.

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026-27 by 60 basis points (bps) to 7%, citing resilient domestic demand and robust services activity." "In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF also raised its growth projection for FY28 by 30 bps to 7%." BS. India has signed trade agreements with at least 14 countries, known as PTA, CECA, CEPA and CECPA, which are probably not fully free, and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Thailand. wikipedia. A BTA, or Bilateral Trade Agreement, with the US is frozen. "US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he did not think there was 'something imminent' on the trade deal with India and the two sides have identified 'the universe of items' that are sticking points." ET. Agreeing with Green, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the India-US trade deal talks have hit a plateau, beyond which giving or taking might be 'very,very' difficult." TIE. Trade talks "in the past months have met with complications, most recently a new US law that paves the way for up to 100% tariffs on Indian goods because of New Delhi's purchase of Russia oil." "A deal has also been held back because Washington is yet to complete a Section 301 trade investigation on several nations over alleged excess industrial capacity." Reuters. However, the picture changes fast where US President Donald Trump is involved. "Trump is facing a growing backlash over plans to import diesel from Russia as the Iran war continues to impact global energy prices." "As well as the initial release of 300,000 tonnes of diesel, Trump said Russia would then supply 500,000 tonnes in November and one million more after that." BBC. In an effort to surpass the US economy, "Beijing has been over investing for years, but lately, it has been dumping the excess output it can't sell at home. In the past, export volumes rose with prices; this decade, Beijing has dropped export prices nearly 20%, producing a 40% surge in volume." Combined with weaker imports, China's trade surplus jumped 20% last year to a record $1.2 trillion, wrote Ruchir Sharma. Unfortunately, "The US will remain reliant on China for its rare earths well into the 2030s even as it builds its own mining and processing facilities." "While US output of the two most-commonly used rare earths has more than tripled since Trump returned to office last year, the country can meet only 42% of its demand and within five years will still rely on imports for nearly a quarter of its demand." Reuters. India does not have a rare earth industry nor the efficient productivity to triple production within one year to entice the US. Also, "Events including a US military attack on a ship off Oman that killed three Indian seafarers and India rejecting Trump's repeated claim of brokering a ceasefire with Pakistan have hurt relations." Trump is referring to Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025, in which India attacked Pakistan  (wikipedia) in retaliation for the terrorist attack at Pahalgam in Kahsmir on 22 April 2025 in which 26 unarmed civilians were gunned down (wikipedia). In August, Air Chief Marshall AP Singh said "India downed five fighter aircraft of Pakistan during Operation Sindoor." newsonair.gov.in. No mention of India's losses. This lack of honesty allows Trump to fill the void with his claims. The trouble is that India does not obey rules. "Licensed categories like aviation are rife with policy puzzles. Asset shifts have been wrapped in riddles in fields like e-commerce and infrastructure." "In recent years, though, India has had a boom in outgoing investments, with both foreign and domestic industrial houses investing abroad." Mint. It will be suicide for Republicans if Trump buys diesel from Russia. India should offer to buy crude from Russia, refine it to diesel and supply the US. We get the crude, Putin gets his cash, Trump gets his diesel and the fig leaf stays in position. Comparing sizes of the leaves will not be allowed. We don't take questions.  

It's not food.

"India's retail inflation quickened to 5.54% in September 2026 from 4.83% in August, driven by a sharp rise in food prices, particularly vegetables, according to government data." "The central bank also raised its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% earlier, citing higher crude oil prices, elevated food costs and the impact of weaker rupee on imported inflation." ET. Emphasis on food prices is a regular cop-out for doing nothing because food prices are supply dependent and monetary policy cannot increase supplies. The big secret is that the government is actively creating shortages of sugar and grains by diverting them for ethanol production to reduce import of crude oil. "Between 2019-20 and 2025-26, ethanol supplied to oil marketing companies grew at approximately 38% annually, while maize production grew at 11.4%, sugarcane at 5.1% and rice at 4.4%." Maize is essential for the poultry industry and diversion of maize to ethanol production is raising prices of eggs and chicken. "The same applies to livestock and diary producers." "The starch and food-processing industries face a similar problem." Indic Collective. As more land is diverted to sugar and maize production there is less for growing vegetables. The precipitous fall of the rupee from 62.33 to one dollar in 2014 (bankbazaar.com) to 96.795 to one dollar on 08 October (in.investing.com), makes imports that much more expensive. In a belated effort to be seen to be doing something the RBI raised the cost of borrowing by a token 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50% last week. TOI. Just as the RBI has failed to control inflation it has failed to control the cost of borrowing for the government. "Indian government bonds tumbled yesterday, with the benchmark 10-year yield posting the biggest one-day rise in over six months," as the "6.94% 2036 bond yield surged nearly 9 bps to 7.3857%, a three-year peak." ET. Clearly, the bond market has no faith in the RBI's ability to control inflation in the medium term. To support the rupee the RBI announced a dollar swap which drew in a total of $136.4 billion, of which FCNR(B) deposits at very high rates of tax-free interest contributed $127.2 billion. Mint. However, the rupee was at 95.11 to one dollar on 31 August, the closing day of the scheme, but continued falling to over 96 to the dollar. mumbaiport.gov.in. Foreign Exchange reserves fell from $785.71 billion on 4 September to $734.6 billion on 2 October, suggesting the RBI had spent about $50 billion on buying rupees to support the currency. BT. When that did not work, the RBI "announced a series of measures to ease pressure on the rupee, tightening rules for foreign exchange derivatives, restricted forward hedging of the currency and mandated that "authorised dealers will have to maintain a cash reserve with the RBI equal to 20% of the rupee equivalent of the notional amount of each eligible transaction." ET. The RBI "announced a special window to meet the entire daily dollar requirements of three public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs). NDTV. As the rupee appreciated to 95.755 on 12 October from 96.755 on 09 October, the RBI restricted the rupee non-deliverable forward window only for hedging. ET. The RBI probably wants to stop banks and companies buying dollars with the stronger rupee for use in the future. Large scale dollar buying will again weaken the rupee. "Prasanna Tantri, associate professor of finance at the Indian School of Business, has warned that India cannot sustain zero real interest rates for too long. He warned that the RBI's efforts to defend the rupee and keep interest rates artificially low through monetary easing risk fueling inflation and undermining financial stability." BT. The RBI failed to defy the 'Impossible Trinity' (wikipedia) and prefers to control the movement of currency while trying to keep the interest rate low and the rupee high. Will it succeed? Depends on foreign investors and the bond market. Stop blaming food. They are not buying it.      

Invent clever lies please.

 "An executive magistrate in Delhi yesterday ordered the release of CJP (Cockroach Janta Party) members Abhijeet Dipke, Ashutosh Ranka and Saurav Das after they furnished surety bonds of Rs 50,000 each, undertaking 'to maintain peace and good behavior' for one year." TOI. The magistrate has seen pictures completely opposite to what we have seen. "In scenes rarely witnessed aboard a commercial flight, the CJP's Dipke, Das and Ranka were detained from inside an aircraft shortly after landing in Delhi." "A Delhi Police team, notably comprising mostly women cops, entered the Air India flight from Mumbai within minutes of touchdown and detained the trio as co-passengers looked on and shot videos." India Today. Apparently, their crime was that they intended to protest peacefully against election fraud. On 17 May, "MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) Secretary (West) Sibi George strongly defended India's democratic system, diversity and minority rights during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Netherlands." ddnews.gov.in. Since Mr Modi did not deny this bold assertion, we can assume this is official. "In India, fundamental rights are considered an essential part of the basic structure of the constitution, which in any case cannot be violated." And, "The right to a peaceful assembly without arms is a fundamental right under Article 19(1)(b) of the Constitution." iPleaders. On cue, "Acting on directions from the Delhi High Court, Delhi Police issued notices to leaders of the CJP,"  involving "allegations of a woman's photographs being doctored into objectionable images, which were circulated online." ET. That might explain the posse of female police officers to arrest the three leaders from the airplane. If any one of the men sneezed or coughed loudly a uniform could burst open and an extremely serious case of 'Outrage of Female Modesty' under Section 354 (LawyersclubIndia) could result. On 10 October, "Delhi Police has deployed more than 35,000 police and paramilitary personnel, set up six designated detention centers and prepared surveillance measures involving body cameras, facial recognition systems, CCTV cameras and drones." The internet was shut down around central Delhi and 45 Metro stations were closed. ET. All incoming mail and express trains arriving in New Delhi and Nizamuddin Stations between 4 am and 2 pm were cancelled. HT. The center of Delhi around Connaught Place and Jantar Mantar was completely sealed off and "By 9 pm, over 67,000 protesters had been detained across Delhi." HT. Traders estimated a loss of up to Rs 20 billion due to the closure of markets in and around Connaught Place. ET. What right has the government to convert our capital city into an internment camp disrupting the life of tax paying citizens of Delhi? "The UN human rights office has expressed concern over mass detentions during large scale protests, urging Indian authorities uphold the right to peaceful assembly and immediately release anyone arbitrarily detained." TNIE. To that, "In a statement, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal described the OHCHR's remarks as unwarranted and an unacceptable interference in country's internal affairs. Mr Jaiswal said that violent responses to protests in India's neighborhood,...had gone unremarked." newsonair.gov.in. Mass arrests, shutting down our right to travel and converting the whole city into an open air prison is not "internal affairs". We call it an infernal affront. Did he just admit that India has become a Pakistan? "The spokesperson highlighted that India is the world's largest democracy, where the right to peaceful assembly is guaranteed by the Constitution and safeguarded by robust institutions, an independent judiciary and a free media." Journalists and media personnel were arrested, and even assaulted, despite showing their IDs and cameras. TOI. There goes the "free media". "Judges of Supreme Court and high courts are, in effect, being appointed directly by Prime Minister Narendra Modi rather than the collegium, said former judge of Madras High Court K Chandru." TOI. So much for robust institutions. We do not object to lying to the world. What we object to is the lies are so barefaced and so obviously silly that it makes a laughing stock of India and Indians. Get someone to invent clever lies. Don't make us look stupid.       

Irrational markets making money.

Four days back, "The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50%, after a detailed assessment of evolving macroeconomic and financial conditions, developments and outlook." Expected Real GDP growth rate was increased from 6.7% to 7.1% for FY 2026-27, while consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected to be 5.2% and core inflation to be 4.4%. ET. The day before the MPC meeting, "The rupee declined 0.15% to 96.43 per dollar" and the RBI is thought to have supported it. "The currency hit a record low of 96.96 in May." ET. From June to September the RBI raised $136.4 billion from overseas borrowing (DC), which ballooned the forward liability by $200 billion. "Will it be a case of too little too late?" as there has not been much change since its last meeting on 26 August. "Even at the newly-hiked rate of 5.50%, the real policy repo rate is negative, if one accepts the MPC projected rate of inflation during the third quarter (6%) and the fourth quarter (5.7%)," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. The Indian rupee has fallen to 96.70 to one dollar since then. xe.com. On 2 October, SBI Research called for immediate "protective guardrails" around the rupee and said, "the balance of risks has 'tilted decisively' towards a 25 bps rate hike." "The report said the global environment argues against waiting, pointing to rate increases by South Korea and Philippines in August and by the US, Japan, the euro area and New Zealand in September amid renewed inflation risks." BT. On 10 October, "SBI Research has called for stronger Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention to manage currency volatility," because of "a changing global financial environment, with a resurgent US dollar, uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and rising international bond yields." BT. "In the week ended 4 September 2026, the country's forex reserves touched a record $785.71 billion,' but "by 2 October, reserves had declined to $734.6 billion, according to RBI data. The sharp fall suggests continued intervention by the RBI in the foreign exchange market." When the FCNR (B) scheme was announced in June, the rupee was trading at 95.74 to the dollar but despite huge inflows under the scheme the rupee touched 96.84 against the dollar on 7 October before closing at 96.77. One reason is that "In total, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have sold a massive Rs 2.85 trillion in Indian equity so far in 2026." BT. By selling dollars to support the rupee, the RBI is increasing FPI repatriation as they convert their proceeds. Effectively, India has borrowed dollars at up to 6.5% rate of interest (IDBI Bank) as a gift to FPIs to take more dollars home. "India's central banks governor Sanjay Malhotra said financial markets could be irrational in the short term and several measures suggested the rupee was undervalued." Reuters. In June 2025, the RBI cut its policy rate by a large 50 basis points, for a cumulative reduction of 100 bps in the four months since February  South Indian Bank. With inflation rising and the rupee under pressure, why didn't the RBI raise rates by at least 50 bps, instead of a cosmetic 25 bps, to show it is serious? "It's only in the long run they are able to find the right value (of the rupee)," said Malhotra. Indeed! "In the long run we are all dead," said the famous economist, John Maynard Keynes. Goodreads. Till then markets are making money. Because the RBI is giving them. No need to wait.