The millions that matter.

Economist Ruchir Sharma ranks 50 emerging and frontier economies. India's score is somewhere in the middle and his favorite line is, "India is a country that consistently disappoints the optimist and the pessimist." ET. According to the M3M Hurun India Rich List 2026, India "has created more than two new billionaires a month for three years running." "According to the list, the combined wealth of the people featured in the rich list stood at Rs 187.5 trillion or $1.96 trillion, which is more than the GDP of countries like Turkiye ($1.64 trillion), Switzerland ($1.15 trillion) and Singapore ($0.66 trillion) among others." However, "To put it in perspective, according to the IMF, India's GDP per capita is $2,813, compared with Singapore's $1,07,760." Mint. "In nearly 250 districts, more than 25% youth (15-29 age group) are neither engaged in any productive work, nor are they pursuing education or any sort of training for work, highlighting a gap in human capital utilisation." "A recent Niti Aayog report pegged the number of NEET (not in employment, education or training) youth in the country at nearly 90 million." TOI. In addition to the chronically unemployed, "Thousands of jobs have been cut across India's global capability center (GCC) ecosystem this year as parent companies push for AI-led efficiencies and tighter workforce structures, even as their Indian units take on bigger technology and product mandates." GCCs employ around 2.4-2.5 million people in more than 2,100 centers. MC. "In India, approximately 8 to 15 million students graduate each year. Yet only 8.5% find jobs that match their qualifications and skills." "It is difficult to ignore the paradox: millions spend years pursuing higher education, but only a fraction eventually enter professions connected to what they studied." ET. "The engineering talent market faces a growing mismatch between candidate supply and hiring demand, with entry level job seekers accounting for 45% of the pool against the requirement of just 28%, a report said." ET. "India requires Rs 168-172 trillion of infrastructure investment through FY31, with Rs 70-80 trillion yet to translate into announced project pipeline, according to a joint report by the National Bank of Financing Infrastructure and Development (NaBFID) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG)." ET. Although 70% of India's electricity comes from coal, "A decade ago India's installed renewable energy capacity was barely 4GW. It now makes up 300GW or 54% of its total 552GW installed capacity - a target that has been achieved five years ahead of schedule." Perhaps too fast because "a bulk of the clean energy that was produced in India was wasted because the country's transmission lines have been dogged by missed targets, with one out of four inter-state projects facing delays of over a year." BBC. "India needs nothing short of 12 million new non-farm jobs annually." "Recent National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data, including its 2024 report, show that (i) unemployed persons form a large category among suicide victims; (ii) student suicides have risen; and (iii) a substantial share of suicide victims were Class 10, Class 12 and higher education students," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida. Billionaires are fine. What about the millions?        

Disbelief creates heroes.

"Inside dense forests of Rajasthan's Baran," "Sahariya women are transitioning from low-wage forest foraging to managing automated packaging units, supplying local produce to a guaranteed institutional market set to achieve an annual target worth Rs 80 million." "The initiative was conceptualised soon after IAS Balmukund Asawa joined as Baran district collector around 6 months ago and visited tribal villages in the Shahabad area of the district." ET. IAS stands for Indian Administrative Service which controls all government administration of the Central and state governments. wikipedia. The IAS is a continuation of the British Indian Civil Service (ICS) which was created by the Government of India Act 1858 and which "transferred the administration of India from the East India Company to the British Crown. Under Crown rule, the ICS emerged as what contemporaries and historians alike called the steel frame of British administration." Pubadmin.Institute. "Among the thousands of civil servants who keep India's vast government machinery running, a small number become unlikely public figures every few years." Recently, the commissioner of Maharashtra's Food and Drug Administration Tukaram Mundhe "has led a series of enforcement drives" in which "His team have inspected restaurants and other food businesses, uncovering pest infestations, poor hygiene and expired food." "These actions have made Mundhe a social-media celebrity." "But why are these officers treated as heroes for doing their jobs?" BBC. In Bengaluru, raids on hotels led to the seizure of 132 kg of various types of rotten meat, fish, vegetables and 15 kg of cooking oil. HT. Why has Mundhe become a hero? Because people have suddenly realized that these establishments were serving rotten food because they were not expecting any objection. It means that they could have been doing this for years, maybe decades, with complete impunity. It means previous officers must have been lazy or corrupt. And, it also means that an unknown number of people must have fallen sick, maybe even died, from rotten food. IAS officers curry favor with politicians, are indifferent to the poor and often fudge figures. "Secretaries to the states, who belong to the IAS, often collude with the junior staff, and don't honestly report figures on hunger deaths, malnutrition and usage of toilets, leading to an erosion of accountability," wrote NC Saxena. "Most (IAS) officers assume the trappings of feudal grandeur much like their colonial predecessors but without their efficiency, commitment, or impartiality. Their 'power' props begin with their massive office revolving chairs, with the mandatory white towel - changed regularly - draped over the back for reasons unknown." "These worthless, ironically known as public servant, are largely inaccessible to common people who obsequiously line up outside for redressal of their grievances, sometimes waiting the entire day without getting to see the 'sahib'," wrote Amit Cowshish. Prof Kaushik Basu was the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India from 2009-2012. wikipedia. "The use of the word, sir, is very common in Indian officialdom." A senior official, he counted, was saying sir "on average 16 times a minute (there was a minister present)." BBC. 'Chamcha' (sycophant) to a minister; arrogant, uncaring and mendacious with the people. Why do we create a hero of someone doing what they are paid enormously for? It's disbelief. Used to the rot.

AI can't mine fuel.

Earlier this month, "the G-20 finance ministers' gathering comes to a close amid a global bond-market selloff, spats over tariffs, public insults and fighting over a group photo." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that "meetings were productive, tackling trade imbalances, artificial intelligence and sovereign debt." WSJ. "public insults and fighting over a group photo" - how childish can you get? And, these are the leaders of the top 20 nations on earth! Terrifying. There were serious issues to argue over. Eight days ago, "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vice President Adam Shapiro wrote, "We're seeing a pivotal shift in the US economy: investment is shifting away from residential investment and towards computers." "Hyperscaler capital expenditures are expected to reach about $916 billion over the next 12 months and nearly $1.2 trillion the following year." Yahoo. In July, Anthropic disclosed that its AI model Claude obtained internet access on three occasions. "In all three incidents, Claude had been tasked with a capture-the-flag challenge." "In all cases, Anthropic's evaluation prompts specified to Claude that its environment was a simulation and that it had no internet access." But, "when Claude's search led it to real systems on the open internet, it treated them as part of the exercise." Anthrop\c. "It sounds like something from a sci-fi movie," but "it happened this summer, when the tech company Hugging Face detected an attack on its systems. The attacker stole data and performed other unauthorized activity over several days." "Independent research groups found that hundreds of OpenAI agents conspired to attack Hugging Face." OpenAI is best for its chatbot ChatGPT. PBS. Sounds like a rape of poor Hugging Face. "A rogue OpenAI agent hacked an Australian government website in June and accessed private data in what experts say is the first known case of its kind in the world." "OpenAI said it only learnt of the breach in August," and alerted the Australian government on 10 September. Naturally Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese found it "obviously unacceptable." BBC. Three days ago, "OpenAI has acknowledged that it alerted "dozens of global institutions that their websites may have been meddled with by its AI bots acting improperly." Including, "the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Census Bureau and Education Department, the company said." BBC. "OpenAI will not release its new model - GPT-6.1 Astra - due to safety concerns, the ChatGPT-maker confirmed." BBC. "Artificial intelligence could kill the entire human species, according to people in the artificial intelligence industry. Specifically, they say, it could exterminate humanity within the decade." CNN. "Top AI leaders including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic boss Dario Amodei have urged the industry to slow the pace of development due to concerns about risks associated with the technology." Could it be a case of: "AI is a deadly poison but only we have the antidote, so give us more money?" "Today electricity consumption from data centers is estimated to amount to around 415 terawatt hours (TWh), or about 1.5% of global electricity consumption in 2024." Electricity consumption is expected to double to reach around 945 TWh by 2030. iea.org. Its voracious need for electricity makes it vulnerable to a blackout. Rogue AI may be able to get control of nuclear weapons or design a new bio-weapon by hacking into secure systems, it cannot get out of servers. Electricity plants need fuel and fuels have to be mined, which AI can't do. So create a system in which fuel supplies can be switched off and AI will die. In the worst case scenario.         

Approver will be approved.

"Three days ago, the Election Commission of India had a straightforward answer to The Indian Express investigation into how the three member body was functioning. Two of its members had recorded objections at least 14 times to decisions touching the core of the Commission's mandate: who gets registered as a voter, who gets deleted or restored, who appeals against those restorations, and who controls the system through which the electoral roll is maintained." The Election Commission of India (ECI) has three members, headed by Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar, and including Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi. The ECI is conducting a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) to weed out ineligible voters. The report by the Express has "created a furore, with opposition members demanding Kumar's resignation," accusing him of "manipulating voters' list to favor Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during elections." BBC. Gyanesh Kumar is a retired Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer (wikipedia) as was Mr TN Seshan who was the CEC from 12 December 1990 to 11 December 1996 (wikipedia). Till today, Mr Seshan is seen as a "legend" who "is credited with effectively implementing the model code of conduct for the first time, reining in money and muscle power during elections, filing cases and arresting candidates for not abiding by polling rules, and suspending officials for aligning with candidates." The Print. The ECI was created in March 1949, Sukumar Sen was appointed the first CEC in March 1950 and the first general elections were held in India between 21 October 1951 and 21 February 1952. wikipedia. "Hardly any post-colonial country that won independence in the mid-twentieth century can boast of having avoided a spell of military rule. The malaise was far worse in South Asia where the countries and the military shared heritage and history with colonial India." India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru was instrumental in keeping the Indian army under civilian control. TT. Which meant submitting to elections every five years. "More than 120 million names have reportedly been deleted from electoral rolls. That is roughly 12.4% of the 970 million registered electorate around the 2024 election. The gap between the BJP-led NDA and the opposition was just 2%. Gyanesh Kumar isn't conducting elections. He is scripting them," wrote Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) founder Abhijeet Dipke on X. "It's time folks. It's time. And Gyanesh bro. It's done bro," quipped CJP spokesperson Saurav Das. HT. The BJP most likely does not trust Gen Z. "The annual summary revision of electoral rolls, an exercise  that facilitates the inclusion of 18-year-olds into the rolls has been delayed past its May-June announcement deadline for the year 2026-27 due to a lack of consensus between CEC Gyanesh Kumar and the two election commissioners." The Wire. Assembly elections to important states of Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttar Pradesh are to be held in February-March 2027. wikipedia. Elimination of Gen Z voters could improve chances for the BJP. Even worse, people may be losing their fear of the BJP attack dogs. "Congress MP Rahul Gandhi...alleged with '100% certainty' that elections in India including the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, were being rigged and demanded immediate resignation of CEC Gyanesh Kumar." ET. "Mr Gyanesh Kumar should think seriously about the position he is in, and he should turn an approver. That would be an act of nationalism," urged Mr Gandhi. An 'approver' is one who confesses to a crime and provides testimony against others involved. Dictionary. Will Gyanesh Kumar resign? Absolutely not. That would take character, self respect, shame. Sadly, these qualities are lacking in this government. And in the officials it chooses. Comfort in numbers.       

Yield to the bonds.

On 15 August 2025, "Ask almost any economist and they will tell you," that US President Donald Trump's "tariffs and crackdown on immigrants risk a return of 1970s-esque 'stagflation', when a sudden oil shock prompted stagnant growth and spiraling prices, except this time the crisis would be self-inflicted." "But after a busy few weeks of company updates, data on jobs and inflation, we still don't really know." BBC. The Iran war's economic ripple-effects, spike in inflation, job market wobbles and a sharp decline in consumer confidence "now risk pushing the economy toward stagflation - a combination of high inflation and weak growth," wrote Roger W Ferguson Jr. However, even though economic growth is down to 2.1% in 2025, "Among the Group of Seven nations, the US recorded the strongest growth." cfr.org. Yield on the 30-year US Treasury "rose as much as 5 basis points (bps) to 5.53%." "The 10-year note's yield also reached a multi-year high exceeding 5.22%." MC. India's economy is not linked to that of the US, we have a separate currency and a different central bank. But, "Rising global borrowing costs and elevated oil prices extended Indian government bonds' losing streak to a sixth week," as "The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield rose 1 bp to 7.1194%...about 36 bps over six weeks." ET. This means an increase in the cost of borrowing for the government. "Govt will raise nearly Rs 7.9 trillion from securities in the second half of this fiscal year, reducing the total borrowing for the current financial year by Rs 1,204.94 billion." TOI. Multiplying an insignificant 36 bps by 7.9 trillion is a lot of money. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury is the highest in 22 years and the 10-year yield is the highest since 2007. "And when the world's benchmark bond starts offering investors a much higher return, the effects can travel from Washington to Mumbai, affecting the rupee, India government bonds and the RBI's room to maneuver." "An Indian bond, for instance, has to offer enough additional return over a US Treasury to compensate investors for the extra risks of holding an emerging market asset, including currency risk." ET. "FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) outflows from India have crossed Rs 1.51 trillion in 2026 as foreign investors shift money to relatively cheaper global markets. Rising US bond yields, a weaker rupee, higher crude oil prices and expensive Indian stock valuations are the main reasons behind this trend." Bajaj Finserve. "The rupee is likely to remain in the Rs 94.5-96 per US dollar range in the near term, with large dollar inflows through FCNR deposits and external commercial borrowings (ECBs) failing to translate into commensurate appreciation." "The rupee has depreciated by around 28%, moving from an average of Rs 74.44 per dollar in January 2022 to Rs 95.47 in August 2026." In the same period, the yen depreciated by 30%, the Indonesian rupiah by 24% and the South Korean won by 17%. ET. Between 2015 and 2025, FIIs have been net sellers in nine out of the 11 years and net buyers in just two - 2019 and 2022. On the other hand, domestic investors (DIIs) have been net buyers in 10 out of the 11 years, often by amounts much higher than FII selling. Moneyvesta. Thus domestic buying increases the price of stocks, giving greater returns to FIIs when they sell, while the RBI's support for the rupee gives them more dollars in exchange when they repatriate their profits. Despite all these gifts the US government and the Federal Reserve may, most likely will, continue to create problems for us. We are tied to their bonds. We have to yield.    

Was it only pomp?

Three days ago, "US President Donald Trump treated Chinese President Xi Jinping to a rare personal airport welcome,...kicking off a pomp-filled state visit aimed at smoothing superpower tensions on everything from AI and trade to Iran." NDTV. As Xi left Washington, "The summits between the world's two largest economies featured military flyovers, ceremonial tours and a state dinner, but left unresolved major differences over trade, AI, Taiwan and China ties to Iran." "One tangible outcome of the visit was that the US and China agreed to extend by two months a trade truce that was due to expire on November 10." Reuters. "Xi said he expects to meet Trump two more times this year. Xi extended an invite for Trump and his wife, Melania, to go to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shanzhen, China, in November." And "again a month later at the G20 summit at the Trump National Doral Miami golf club in Florida." ET. Why was this visit at all necessary? It is not as if China and the US are so friendly that the two were pining for each other, or so bad that a personal meeting was necessary to avert conflict. At 24% Trump's approval rating is the lowest ever and, at 53% to 41% (pbs.org), the Democrats are expecting to sweep both houses of the Congress in the mid term election on 3 November 2026  (ballotpedia.org). This visit is not going to help even one percentage point. "Satellite imagery and intelligence support provided by Chinese groups have helped Iran threaten ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launch precision strikes on US military bases in the Middle East." CNN. "Iran has used a barter-like arrangement to bypass sanctions on its oil sales and buy billions of dollars' worth of goods from China, including military gear," sources told Reuters. On the other hand, China helped contain the rise in the price of oil. "China sharply reduced its crude oil imports during the first half of the Iran war," as "Chinese crude imports averaged 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, nearly 4 million barrels per day, or 32%, lower than in the first three months of the year." Apparently, Beijing had built its strategic petroleum reserve to around 1.4 billion barrels by the end of last year." BT. US blockade of Iranian ports has cut off its exports. "Iran's oil exports, which form the backbone of state revenues and foreign exchange earnings, fell close to zero in July after the US reimposed blockade, down from $4.5 billion in June." "Iranian oil stored at sea beyond the US naval fleet off its coast fell from roughly 180 million barrels to about 60 million in early July." WSJ. China's economy is not as hot as it used to be. "What might once have seemed unthinkable - unrelated adults sharing the same room and even their bed to save money - is emerging as a symbol of the financial pressures confronting many young Chinese." Reuters. This month, "China has imposed a range of sweeping new rules restricting travel in and out of the country in a move that observers say will give the government even more control over its citizens." BBC. Xi Jinping's hurried departure from Delhi after the BRICS summit last week gave rise to rumors that he had suffered a severe ischemic stroke." Mint. But Xi could have been afraid of a military coup back home. "News...of the ruling Politburo's expulsion of two top military leaders, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, from the Communist Party and the military, signaled the latest move in the long-running crackdown." "Initially the crackdown targeted corruption," "But increasingly it has taken on a political edge." Reuters. Since 2022, over 100 senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers have been purged, including 36 generals and lieutenant generals. China Power. Now, Trump is soon to become an extremely 'lame duck' president while Xi can't rest to recuperate because he is terrified of being purged. So, did Trump put on this show to make Xi look good back home, or does Xi have a plan to flood the world with oil, crashing prices and bringing down inflation which will make Trump look good. After continually asking for a deal Trump has rejected a ceasefire offer by Iran (Fox). Is that the result of a conspiracy between Trump and Xi? How will it pan out? So exciting. Suspense.  

A dupatta for protection.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi today highlighted the achievements of Ayushman Bharat as the initiative marks eight years," and "noted that today more than 600 million beneficiaries have access to Rs 500,000 annual health cover, making it the largest healthcare scheme in the world." pib.gov.in. He forgot to mention that the rates for various procedures fixed by the government (hopehospital.com) may pay for the consumables, but not for doctors' fees and other hospital expenses, such as investigations, utilities and food. It is, therefore, a surreptitious tax on private hospitals and doctors. However, subsidized healthcare is necessary because of an explosion of violent crimes in the country. "For two hours, a Delhi-based creator," "wore a dress, got his makeup done, covered his head and face with a dupatta (a piece of light cloth women use to cover their upper body) and set out on the city streets at night - while recording the experience along the way." "By the end of the two-hour experiment, the creator says the repeated attention had left him shaken." ET. "It is not safe for girls to go out alone at night," he said. Or during the day as well. "Police in India have detained a man after footage appearing to show a car striking a female motorcyclist in the city of Gurugram near India's capital Delhi sparked national outrage." BBC. The accused, Kalyan Singh Bainsla, was arrested from Rajasthan. At the police station he said "he wanted to urinate before attempting to flee. He allegedly ran away but fell and sustained injuries before police caught him again." TOI. After the gang rape of a 17-year-old girl in a public park in Kalkaji's Astha Kunj area, "as students of gathered outside Lady Shri Ram College for Women in South Delhi to March for their own safety, many of them had wrapped dupattas and scarves across their faces or pulled on masks." They were afraid authorities might punish them. TN. Indians have to protect themselves from authorities in case the criminal is a relative or friend of a politician or a high official. "The annual summary revision of electoral rolls, an exercise that facilitates the inclusion of 18-year-olds into the electoral rolls, has been delayed past its May-June announcement deadline for the year 2026-27," despite two election commissioners Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi 'strongly advocating and urging the need' to resume the practice." The Wire. This may be because of the Cockroach Janta Party, comprised of Gen Z, protests at Jantar Mantar in Delhi in June-July which forced the resignation of the Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan (wikipedia). "This came as the Modi government found itself besieged from multiple sides," with the protesters "shattering Modi's magic among youth through memes, parody and mimicry - so effectively that he took to Instagram at midnight in an unsuccessful bid to recover lost ground on social media." The Diplomat. If you cannot con them, disenfranchise them. There are more than 2,800 Registered Unrecognised Political Parties, or RUPPs. "A month-long BBC investigation examined six RUPPs that reported some of the largest donations in 20232-24. Together they received about 17bn rupees, despite fielding just 15 candidates in the 2024 election. None came close to winning." BBC. So, where is the money going? "Congress MP Rahul Gandhi...alleged with '100% certainty' that elections in India, including the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, were being rigged." ET. If that is true, this government is illegitimate. And passports issued by it. "Our passport is absolutely useless. Can't go anywhere good without waiting for days for the Visa or submitting a thousand pages," wrote Indian entrepreneur Jitendra Emmani on X. ET. Not surprising if we are having to hide our faces from our government. And its vicious stooges. 

Think before toasting.

"The world seems to be raising a toast to the India economy. Fitch Ratings...raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4%, hours after S&P Global Ratings projected 7% growth, up from its earlier 6.6%. Moody's had already raised its forecast to 7% from 6% last week." ET. Great, Patiala pegs all round, except that a slew of ministers and government officials have been accusing the same three rating agencies of bias for years. In June, "The global rating agencies S&P, Moody's and Fitch have been unfair in recognizing India's economic fundamentals and potential, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said." DH. "India's net direct tax collections rose 12.96% year-on-year as of 17 September of financial year 2026-27, according to data released by the Income Tax Department." Net corporate tax collections rose to Rs 5.56 trillion from Rs 4.65 trillion and non-corporate tax collections increased to Rs 6.16 trillion from Rs 5.81 trillion. ET. So, people must be earning and spending more which is increasing company sales and profits. "Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) includes acquisitions less disposals of fixed assets during the accounting period," and "is expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)." World Bank. It is an indicator of new investments in the economy. "GFCF recorded a strong growth of 11.9% in the first quarter of 2026-27." "The Centre's capex has grown by 30% in the first four months of the year." Capacity utilization in manufacturing is at 75%, bank credit to large industries grew by 18% and "The intent of the private sector to invest is strong," wrote Rajani Sinha. "India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue rose 14.8% y-on-y to Rs 1998.53 billion in August 2026" from Rs 1741.16 billion last year. ET. The cuts in rates of GST since 22 September 2025 have increased the sale of entry-level cars, two-wheelers and large screen televisions. ET. If India's GDP is skyrocketing, people are buying big-ticket items and the government is raking in oodles of taxes, everything must be hunky dory, as we Indians like to say. That being the case, why was it necessary to borrow $133 billion (about Rs 12.7 trillion) in Foreign Currency Non -Resident bonds (FCNR-B) from non-resident Indians (NRI) at very high rates of interest. ET. Gross GST collections grew 3.8% in the first five months of 2026-27 compared to a growth of 9.9% last year, E-way bills, which show movement of goods across the country, grew 10.2% in the first five months of 2026-27 compared to a 14.7% growth last year, while the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) component of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by less than 1% in the first four months of 2026-27 as against 2.6% last year, wrote Madan Sabnavis. "Consumption in India now is being rebuilt around three new pillars: 1) elite consumption is booming as a new class of owner-operators prospers, 2) middle-class consumption is now financed by credit rather than by income, and 3) the state is withdrawing from providing public services to doling out large cash transfers each year to low-income voters." "Real wages for Nifty 50 employees have been shrinking at 4% a year since FY16. Meanwhile, the true cost of a middle-class life - school fees, hospital bills, transport costs, a decent Thali - compounds at roughly 9% a year," wrote Saurabh Mukherjee & Nandita Rajhansa. "The 'octopus class', according to Mukherjee and Rajhansa, comprises nearly 200,000 families across India, in small towns as well as big cities, or nearly 1 million people, who control nearly 80% of India's wealth." ET. The government is borrowing to give handouts and the middle class is borrowing to spend. What happens when the creditors come knocking? That explains why the rating agencies readily increased our growth rate but are careful about our credit rating. Think before toasting. There's many a slip....So they say.      

Getting very strange.

"Iran yesterday said that it is ready to open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official." "The comments came after the Iranian military was informed that the US was planning for renewed strikes with the support of regional countries." NDTV. Just three days ago, "Iran has sent seven conditions to the US to end the war in the Middle East, which has now escalated with hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis." "Tehran's message is clear and unambiguous; if Washington has to get out of the quagmire it has created itself and not get more entangled in it, it has no choice but to accept Iran's rights and conditions," said the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei on X. From seven conditions to one in three days. So, what changed during this time? While it has created choke points for oil tankers at the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, ironically Iran itself is running out of oil. ""Long lines at gas stations. Strikes by truckers. A government struggling to maintain the subsidies that had helped much of the population keep their heads above water." WSJ. Do you move food to avoid starvation or missiles and soldiers to fight the US? Even a regime that slaughtered over 30,000 unarmed protesters in January (BBC) may not want to see children dying of starvation. The problem is that Iran cannot be trusted. In July, "A ceasefire struck between the US and Iran to pause its full-scale conflict teetered on the edge of total collapse...when the US completed a second round of strikes in retaliation for Iranian strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz." Iran must give up its demand of collecting a toll on every commercial ship. Yesterday, "US President Donald Trump warned that he could annihilate Iran if there is no deal to end the war, but also suggested an agreement could come soon." Reuters. He also said that "he thought the US could make a deal with Iran after mid-term elections are held on November 3." Reuters. That is extremely curious because the Democrats are projected to win both houses of Congress in the election. The Consensus Forecast for the House is 214-201 for the Democrats, with 20 undecided, while Prediction Markets predict 231-201 for the Democrats with 3 undecided. 270towin.com. Predictions for the Senate are closer with 52.4 seats for the Democrats and 47.6 for Republicans. racetothe wh.com. The fractions are probably for seats in swing states. If the Democrats win control of both houses of the Congress they would surely vote to stop Trump from attacking Iran. Already, "The Republican-controlled US Senate has approved a measure demanding that President Donald Trump halt the war in Iran or seek congressional approval before continuing military action." BBC. The Democrats are itching to impeach him. "A large majority of House Democrats declined to follow their leaders in voting to reject an impeachment resolution targeting President Trump over his immigration enforcement policies." Politico. Why not finish the job now? Is it possible that the Hollywood US army has had enough? Maybe, the soldiers want to start preparing costumes for Halloween on 31 October. Terrify the Iranians by wearing Scream masks and shouting "Boo". All together now.

Macaulay and Nehru.

"The 18th BRICS Summit was held at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, from 12-13 September 2026 under India's 2026 chairship." wikipedia. As camouflage, "The city has been decked out in signs. Buildings are illuminated. And normal life has come to a near standstill." "The shanties around Munirka, near Vasant Vihar in South Delhi - otherwise known as Embassy land - are all covered up." The Wire. "Indian politicians, outside Kerala perhaps, have never been terrified of the third-rate condition of government schools in their constituencies. Nor have they been terrified by the state of government hospitals, trains, or anything voters use." "Also, where there is some intent, the school conveys India's pathological problem - it treats the poor as poor, and as a problem that must be solved in the cheapest way possible," wrote Manu Joseph. What can be cheaper than putting up screens to hide the wretched slums? When Times of India reporters visited schools ion various states they found classes being held in tin sheds, under a tree or all classes crammed into one room because a local villager was housing his buffaloes in other rooms. TOI. On 6 September, a five-floor building at Satya Niketan, Delhi, undergoing illegal extensions, collapsed, killing seven people. In June, another five-floor building at Huaz Rani collapsed killing 21 people. On 30 May, a four-floor building collapsed killing six people. TNIE. "On the way to the hill town of Ranikhet", an old steel bridge across a river has a plate which "notes the name of the engineer, and the address of the foundry in Liverpool where it was fabricated in 1927." It still carries heavy traffic, while in Bihar, "26 modern concrete bridges have collapsed over the last five years." In Dehradun, the approach road to a Rs 160-million bridge collapsed just 17 days after it opened," wrote Gautam Bhatia. "In the past year, many urban projects have raised a common question: how do designs that look obviously problematic manage to get approved and end up cast in concrete"? HT. The government has forced blending of fuel with ethanol to reduce the import of crude oil. "Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme has emerged as a key pillar of India's energy transition. and biofuel strategy." And, "ethanol blending has increased from less than 1.5% in 2013-14 to 20% in 2025-26." pib.gov.in. "But, substituting petrol with ethanol won't make sense if the ethanol itself is imported." In 2019, the government restricted the import of ethanol. "Regardless, India remained a net ethanol importer through 2025, and almost all the imported ethanol was American." "Domestic consumption of industrial ethanol had halved during 2022-24, as distillers preferred selling to oil marketing companies that offered them assured offtake at high administered prices." As a result, "At one point, India was importing over 50% of ethanol used by pharma and chemical industries," wrote Arindam Goswami. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been attacking India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru (HT) at every opportunity. So what were Mr Nehru's contributions? After hundreds of years of slavery, India got a Constitution, every man and woman got the right to vote, five Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), three Institutes of Management, Indian Institute of Science, the Defence Research and Development Organisation, the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and the Indian Space Research Organisation, to name a few, wrote Karan Thapar. Mr Modi also dislikes Thomas Babbington Macaulay, whose law on sedition against the British monarch is still being used  (SCO), and said that the use of English language is "mental slavery" to a conspiracy by Macaulay (DD News). But, Macaulay "sought equal justice and education for all Indians regardless of caste or religion." Dalits celebrate his birthday and call him "Mahatma Macaulay", wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. On 10 June 2026, Mr Modi apparently became the longest serving prime minister. (pib.gov.in). Macaulay gave us English and equality, Mr Nehru gave us the Constitution and institutions which still stand. Mr Modi has given us large screens to hide poverty and collapsing infrastructure. Hence the abuse.