Endurance could be painful.

"The US economy created 115,000 jobs in April as businesses kept hiring despite the economic fallout from the US-Israel war in Iran. The increase was stronger than expected, with the total almost twice as much as economists had forecast." The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. BBC. "Unemployment rate of 5% or lower is often considered full employment in the real-world context." Zero unemployment would result in higher wages and lead to higher prices and inflation. Investopedia. "New orders for US factory goods rose more than expected in March, led by surging demand for electronics products amid the artificial intelligence investment boom." "Factory orders were up 1.5% on the month," from 0.3% in February and by "3.7% on a year-over-year basis in March." Reuters. In contrast, "War has imposed a heavy cost on Iran's economy: more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses." The US blockade of Iran's ports has dealt "a devastating blow to Iran's already-battered economy. Government revenue has dried up just as the needs of its population are rising." WSJ. "Early signs are that after years of dodging restrictions, this Iranian shadow fleet may have met its match in the US naval blockade - its ships now appear unable to leave the Persian Gulf." WSJ. The moderates in the Iranian government "believe in holding fire and negotiating a favorable deal with President Trump," while "A growing camp of hardliners believe Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices shooting and increase the pressure on Trump." WSJ. Even more virulent, "a small but influential hardline faction has intensified efforts to sabotage a potential deal with Washington," and this "ultra-hardline group has ramped up efforts across the media, in parliament and on the streets to advocate against an agreement with the US, arguing that only by defeating Washington can Iran secure a favorable deal." "Known as 'Jebhe-ye Paydari' - or the Endurance Front - its members are often described by observers as 'Super Revolutionaries' who view themselves as guardians of the values of the 1979 revolution that overthrew the pro-Western Shah." CNN. They may be afraid of being accused of being 'Takfiris' (wikipedia), having killed Muslim Iranians. They may remember the hanging of Saddam Hussein (wikipedia) as a punishment for losing against the US. Also higher oil prices mean higher revenue. Already, "Images of bareheaded women sipping coffee in cafes in Tehran, in apparent defiance of the Islamic Republic's strict dress rule, have stirred interest outside Iran," but "the rights of women are still restricted and they live under a system that arrested tens of thousands of people following the January protests and thousands more, including women, in the current war, according to rights groups." NDTV. There is a lot of accounting to be done. The Endurance Front don't want to endure that. Could be painful.                                                                                 

Fewer physical, higher digital.

"India recorded 5.89 million crimes in 2024, down 5.7% from 6.24 million in 2023, according to the Crime in India Report for 2024 released by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). The rate of crime per hundred thousand people in 2024 stood at 419, down from 448 in 2023 and the lowest since 2019, when this number was 385." HT. "Murders in India dropped by 2.4% in 2024," while "Crimes against women declined by 1.5%, with 441,000 cases reported in 2024 compared to 448,000 in the previous year. TOI. "Delhi retained the grim distinction of being the most unsafe metropolitan city for women for the fourth consecutive year, reporting the highest number of rape cases and a high share of violent crimes against women." Delhi, the capital city, recorded 13,396 cases of crimes against women: 1058 cases of rape, more than double that of Jaipur (497) and Mumbai (411); 3,974 cases of kidnapping and abduction; 4,647 cases of cruelty by husband or relatives; 755 cases of molestation and seven murders with rape. HT. Adding to its list of achievements, "Delhi recorded the highest number of dowry death cases among 19 metropolitan cities in 2024, continuing a grim trend that kept the national capital at the top of the ignominious list for the fifth consecutive year." According to NCRB, Delhi recorded 109 such incidents involving 111 victims. TOI. The total number of crimes fell 15.1% in Delhi, from 320,000 in 2023 to almost 280,000 in 2024. "Crimes committed by juveniles totaled 2,306 in 2024, including 144 cases of murder, 526 robberies and 217 incidents of snatching." On the other hand, there were 7,662 cases of crimes against children. "To put this in perspective, Mumbai recorded 3,374 such cases, and Bangalore 2,026 cases." TOI. There is some good news. Although a total of 5,20,614 persons (1,67,414 males, 3,52,729 females and 29 transgender) were reported missing in 2024, "a total of 5,03,602 persons (1,65,465 males, 3,38,116 females and 21 transgender) were recovered/traced." "A total of 98,375 children (22,768 males, 75,603 females and four transgender) were reported missing," but a total of 98,826 children (23,902 males, 74,919 females and five transgender)) were recovered/traced.  " The Print. Which means an extra 451 children, probably missing from previous years, were recovered. What unbelievable joy for distraught parents. These are incidents of physical crimes but it is cybercrime which is growing exponentially. "Over 86% of households are now connected to the internet," and "Cybersecurity incidents in India rose from 1.029 million in 2022 to 2.268 million in 2024." pib.gov.in. Elderly people are especially vulnerable to cybercrimes. "There was an 86% rise in cybercrimes targeting seniors between 2020 and 2022," during the Covid pandemic. "Investigations show that once victims send money, it is quickly moved through dozens of accounts and often converted to cryptocurrency to be moved out of the country." "The police have traced links to China and Cambodia." ST. Digital crimes are easier and potentially much more lucrative. If the government is keen to encourage digital transactions for surveillance purposes, then it is their duty to protect and recompense citizens against cybercrimes by the Chinese. It's an attack on our sovereignty.             

Geographic insurance.

 "Big American companies are piling up profits despite war and consumer anxiety, bolstered by healthy sales growth." "For much of the S&P 500 margins are improving. The gap between profit and sales growth remains below late-2024 highs, suggesting real expansion behind much of the profit growth," but, "In the current K-shaped economy, the wealthy keep spending, while most everyone else feels strapped." WSJ. A similar story is playing out in India. "Wealthy Indians are spending more overall, but a smaller share of that spending is going to retail stores." Instead, "they are increasingly spending on travel, fine dining and curated experiences such as concerts and wellness retreats even as they continue to purchase high-value premium goods." "While retail's share is shrinking, absolute spending on premium goods is rising, with affluent consumers trading up across segments." Mint. Indian companies are investing in the US. "A record $20.5 billion in investments into the United States by top Indian companies was celebrated at the 2026 SelectUSA Investment Summit in Maryland." US Mission India. "The commitments span key sectors including pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and emerging technologies, and are expected to create thousands of jobs in both countries while expanding US production and joint innovation capacity." "Global lenders to Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd are weighing multiple financing options for its proposed $12 billion acquisition of New York-listed healthcare company Organon & Co., according to people familiar with the matter." But shouldn't it be better to invest within India? "Last week, chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said that profits for the 500 largest publicly traded companies had grown by over 30% a year since the pandemic," but private sector investment has been disappointing. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman publicly wonders every few months why corporations seem so unwilling to invest." "Back in the boom years more than a decade ago, capital expenditure was 40% of gross domestic product; it's down by about 10 percentage points on average since then." Nageswaran thinks that the younger generation do not want to take any risks. However, "The real reason India's richest don't want to invest domestically - and, possibly take some of their cash abroad - is because they estimate local political risk as being too high." "If they earn money in India, their first instinct is to try and diversify geographically, so they escape New Delhi's control as much as they can," wrote Mihir Sharma. "India is 157th out of 180 countries in the 2026 World Press Freedom Index released by Reporters Without Borders on 30 April. In the 2025 ranking India was at 151." The Wire. Pandering to Dear Leader may be physically safe but ensuring financial insurance by moving money abroad is wise. Something about eggs in one basket (BBC). Especially, one with sycophants.                                                                                                  

Loss of 0.01 jobs.

"India is currently the world's fastest growing major economy," but "During the 1990s, every percentage point of GDP growth yielded roughly 0.41% growth in formal employment. By early 2026, that employment elasticity had plummeted to 0.01." It means GDP growth is not creating jobs for labor. "This is the '0.01 trap' - a state where the economy can double in size while people's economic well-being does not improve," wrote Ejaz Ghani. There is another problem with the growth. "While India's GDP is expected to grow at a healthy 7.4% in 2025-26 in real terms, nominal growth is likely to be just 8%." HT found that "the post-pandemic period has seen the lowest nominal GDP growth since the 1970s despite real growth not doing so badly." The reason is low inflation due to low global commodity prices and deflationary pressures because of China's massive excess capacity in manufacturing, wrote  Roshan Kishore. High inflation helps the government by increasing tax collections and decreasing the real value of its debt. Economics Help. Despite lower inflation, "India's Goods and Services Tax Collections (GST) rose to a record high of Rs 2.43 trillion in April 2026." "The government data show gross GST collections rising 8.7%." "Strong indirect tax collections work well for government finances." TOI. GST came into force on 1 July 2017, replacing all central and state level taxes such as excise duty, VAT, services tax etc. cleartax.in. Since then it has been increasing every year, except for the Covid year of 2020-21. The average monthly collection has more than doubled from Rs 980.83 billion in 2018-19, the first full financial year of collections, to an expected Rs 1.9 trillion in 2025-26. blog.tatanexarc.com. This mirrors consumer price index (CPI) inflation rising to 4.07% in September 2019, soaring to 7.32% in December 2019 and then staying above an average of 6% till about January 2025. RI. GST is a percentage of the cost, so higher the price, the higher is the tax collection. The rate of inflation may be falling since last year, but, since inflation compounds from year to year, even smaller rises on a high base lead to higher GST collections. Not surprisingly "Profit before taxes for 33,000 sampled companies nearly quadrupled between 2019-20 and 2022-23." "Over that period, employment in these firms grew a mere 1.5%," and "real wages for regular workers contracted by 0.7%," wrote Ajit Ranade. India's net direct tax collections rose 5.12% to around Rs 23.40 trillion, while gross direct tax collections rose 4% year-on-year to Rs 28.1 trillion in the financial year ending 31 March. ET. The government is worried about the high cost of oil because of the Middle East conflict but not that worried about a poor monsoon. At worst, growth will fall to 6.7% from 6.9% and retail inflation will rise to 5%. BT. With employment elasticity of 0.01, jobs will fall from 0.069 to 0.067. No one will notice the difference. No worries.                                                                                

It's not AI.

"By almost every conventional measure of sovereign economic health - growth, inflation, fiscal trajectory, external vulnerability and investor confidence in the real economy - India's fundamentals are among the strongest of any emerging market. Yet the rupee has depreciated by over 13% against the dollar in the past two years and by more than 15% since January 2023." This is unfair, wrote Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran. In 2025, India received three credit rating upgrades. In May, Morningstar DBRS upgraded India to BBB from BBB (low), in August, S&P upgraded to BBB from BBB-, and in September, Rating and Investment Information Inc (R&I) upgraded India's sovereign credit rating to BBB+ from BBB. pib.gov.in. The reason for the rupee's woes is "the extraordinary pull that the artificial intelligence (AI) supercycle has exerted on global capital flows" "compressing currencies from Seoul and Jakarta to Mumbai regardless of whether  these economies were well or poorly managed.". According to a report from the Bank of Baroda, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "reduced the repo rate from 6.50% to 5.25%, a cut of 125 basis points (bps), starting in February 2025." However, "the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh loans declined by 93 bps, showing partial transmission of the rate cuts." ET. In addition to slashing interest rates, the RBI "also pumped nearly Rs 20 trillion into banks, nearly double the amount of liquidity support during the pandemic. Yet the funds simply leaked out of India's banking system as global money managers dumped local assets and took dollars home." The RBI may be forced to raise interest rates as the weak rupee and higher fuel costs raise inflation rates, wrote Andy Mukherjee. The RBI's "balance sheet shows the amount of government paper (including treasury bills) held as on 28 February was Rs 21.34 trillion. It was Rs 15.58 trillion in March 2025." "An increase of this scale has never been witnessed earlier." The RBI transferred Rs 2.69 trillion as surplus to the government , and this "together with RBI's net incremental holdings of government paper, the sum of Rs 8.45 trillion is equivalent to 54% of the fiscal deficit for 2025-26," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Clearly, the RBI is monetizing government debt. "Even when the Federal Reserve prints more currency, there is still a global demand for the US dollar. However, the same will not be the case for the rupee. Thus, when there is excess supply of the currency, it could lead to a fall in rupee value, leading to an outflow of foreign investment," wrote Deepti Mary Mathew. "Net foreign direct investment (FDI) fell from some $40 billion in 2020-21 to about $350 million last year." Indian companies are investing abroad and foreign investors are cashing out. "High-profile exits - Citibank, Allianz, Ford, MG Motors, Hyundai's stake in Ola, Whirlpool, Holcim. BAT and others" "are selling assets, booking profits and reallocating capital to other markets, especially the US, which is now the world's most attractive FDI destination," wrote Ajit Ranade. Even Indian dealers are not buying the fantastic story. The yield on the benchmark 10-year GOI bonds is at 6.981% this morning, down from 7.043% one month ago. ininvesting. com. Perhaps our CEA should ask the RBI why the rupee is sick instead of blaming AI. Foreigners can flee. We can't.

Asking for Vide-Gousset.

Over the last two years India's central bank has been bringing our gold back to India, "physically moving bullion that was stored in vaults abroad to domestic storage inside India." "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held 880.52 metric tonnes of gold as of end-March 2026," constituting 16.7% of India's foreign exchange reserves. The total value of our gold reserves is Rs 8.36 trillion and the value of the 680.05 tonnes stored in India is Rs 6.46 trillion. Zee. If RBI's move was a masterstroke, the Banque de France executed a double masterstroke. Instead of physically transferring the gold bars, "Between July 2025 and January 2026, it sold 129 tonnes of older non-standard gold bars" at record high prices at the time. "It then used the proceeds to purchase higher standard bullion on the European market and stored it in Paris." Making a profit of 12.8 billion euros. ET. From 1963 to 1966, "France secretly repatriated a vast portion of its gold -- in an operation dubbed Vide-Gousset (French for emptying the pocket). Under the operation, France brought back 3,000 tonnes from New York and London using ships and aircraft. A section of economists see this as one of the key triggers that put pressure on the Bretton Woods gold convertibility system." NDTV. In 1971, then President Richard Nixon abolished the Gold Standard, which ended the Bretton Woods system and ushered in fiat currencies. wikipedia. This was one of the reasons for the stagflation of the 1970s. As a result, "Central banks have a greater degree of control over their nations' money and the management of variables such as interest rates, overall money supply, and velocity." They can take radical monetary policy actions such as quantitative easing (QE). It has created a large market for hedging currency risks and "The financial crisis of 2007-2008, in particular, proved that central bank control is no guaranteed defense against severe recessions." Investopedia. "RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra...called for Indian banks to emerge as market-makers, urging a more active global role for domestic lenders as the central banks seeks to shift rupee price discovery onshore." "When offshore rates diverge from domestic spot and forward markets, arbitrage and hedging flows transmit those signals back onshore, allowing offshore sentiment to drive local pricing." TOI. Will foreign investors be comfortable with this system? In March, the RBI suddenly "announced new rules capping the open positions banks can hold in the onshore currency market at $100 million at the end of each trading day. The change, effective April 10, forces lenders to shrink their books, limiting their ability to run large one-sided bets against the rupee." This caused heavy losses to banks. ET. This does not look like price discovery. It looks as if the RBI wants all hedging to happen in India so that it can control it. Foreigners investing in India would want a better value for their investment. Betting is banned in India but Rs 250 billion have been wagered on the assembly election results on foreign platforms through the internet, using cryptocurrencies. The Federal. Repatriating gold is for protection. But you don't trade in gold. You trade in currencies. Market making is not possible if the RBI changes rules suddenly. Why should banks take the risk? It would be Vide-Gousset.    

Land routes need oil.

"Israel has supplied the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with an advanced laser-based air defence system, known as 'Iron Beam'," which is "designed to vaporise short-range rockets and drones." Israel has used these against the Hezbollah. "Israel has also sent an advanced surveillance system, 'Spectro', which can detect incoming drones from up to 20 km away." TOI. Iran thought that attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz would create global pressure that the US could not resist. Instead, the US blockade of Iranian ports has stopped Iran's fleet of shadow ships which used to go dark at sea before transferring their cargo to China. Hardliners in Iran believe that "Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices soaring and increase the pressure on Trump." WSJ. "Since its creation in 1979, the Islamic Republic has revolved around a supreme leader with final authority on all key matters of state. But the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has created a "different order dominated by commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) and marked by the absence of a decisive, authoritative referee." Reuters. "The IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency recently published a map of undersea internet cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz in a veiled warning." Now, Pakistan has operationalized six land routes which "connect major Pakistani ports, including Gwadar and Port Qasim to border crossings such as Taftan and Gabd, enabling direct land access to Iran with which Pakistan shares a border of over 900 km." India Today. Land routes cannot transfer large quantities of goods over long distances and, since both countries are almost bankrupt, who will pay for the diesel used by the trucks. Recently, "Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the US-Iran war has dealt a serious blow to Pakistan's economic progress made over the past two years." NDTV. Pakistan may be hoping to be paid in Iranian oil which can decrease shortage for the people. "The Trump administration is now calling Operation Epic Fury as Operation Economic Fury." "In total, 31 tankers laden with 53 million barrels of Iranian oil are 'stuck in the Gulf' and have a value of at least $4.8 billion." Iran has about 30 days before it faces severe shortage of storage. The US Treasury has frozen "half a billion dollars in regime-linked cryptocurrency, while also escalating pressure on Chinese 'teapot' refineries, foreign banks and sanctions-evasion networks facilitating Tehran's trade." ET. Iran is smuggling oil by tankers disguised as Iraqi vessels to get round the US blockade, according to maritime intelligence. Fox. Iran has offered to stop its attacks on ships in the Strait "in exchange for a full end to the war, a lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports and postponement of nuclear talks." In short, a complete surrender by the US and Israel. The killing of Mahsa Amini for not wearing a hijab, (wikipedia) which is a religious reason and the killing of up to 30,000 Iranians on 8 and 9 January for protesting (Time) means that all IRGC and Basij gangsters are Takfiris (wikipedia). Iranians should shoot them on sight even if they are relatives. That will be an Islamic solution to all their problems. For an Islamic nation. And Islamic Guards.         

Brazilians have 7 times more cars.

"India is expected to withstand global economic shocks despite rising uncertainty due to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals, according to a report by the Bank of Baroda." Even though, "global headwinds such as slowdown in the world economy and geopolitical uncertainty could impact India's exports, disrupt supply chains, and lead to higher commodity prices." ET. "Back in 1991, India was on the edge of a financial crisis." "At the same time, Brazil looked far ahead, with its economy twice the size of India's." "Fast forward more than three decades," and "India was until now the world's fourth-largest economy, which recently slipped to sixth position because of depreciation of the rupee, while Brazil is at 11th place. The country has grown at an average of around 6.5% a year, while Brazil's growth has been closer to 2.5%." India's economy is based on services, Brazil's on commodities. msn.com. India has a higher credit rating according to S&P, Moody's and Fitch and a much lower interest rate at 5.25% compared to 14.75% in Brazil. However, India's population is over 1.40 billion crammed into 3.3 million sq km, while Brazil has a population of just 213 million spread out over 8.5 million sq km. Naturally, Brazil's GDP per capita was $10,282 while India's was $2,592 in 2024 and there were 218.59 motor vehicles per 1000 people in Brazil in 2020 and only 32.57 per 1000 people in India. countryeconomy.com. Clearly, on an individual level Brazilians are much more prosperous. "During the financial year ended 31 March 2026, India's imports from China rose to $131.6 billion, up from $65.2 billion in 2020-21. By contrast, India's exports to China in 2025-26 stood at $19.5 billion - still below the $21.2 billion in 2020-21. India's trade deficit with China widened from $44 billion in 2020-21, to $112.1 billion 2025-26, an increase of 155% in five years." DH. In 2024, Brazil exported a total of $378 billion and imported a total of $368 billion, thus earning a trade surplus in goods and services. atlas.hks.harvard.edu. In FY 2024-25, India incurred a cumulative trade deficit in merchandise and services of $-94.26. pib.gov.in. According to a Reuters poll of economists, India's GDP is expected to grow 6.7% in this financial year, but the figures do not capture "an already-notable hit to the country's vast informal sector." About 90-93% of India's workforce is employed in the informal sector, which had 65 million unincorporated enterprises employing 110 million workers in 2022-23. Vajiram & Ravi. Also, "India is facing inflation threats from heat waves and below normal rainfall this year, creating new economic pressures for policymakers already grappling with soaring energy costs." ET. How is it that our economy keeps growing gangbusters while per capita GDP is only $2,813 in 2026 (IMF)? An increase of just 8.5% from 2024. India is better off than Brazil. But Brazilians are better off than Indians. They have more cars. And oil.