Too many friends.

"Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has said that Pakistan is now recognized as a 'responsible' nation that not only knows how to defend itself, but has also emerged as a 'guarantor of global peace and security." "He also warned that any aggression against Pakistan would receive an 'immediate, befitting and full-spectrum response'." "He said Islamabad's role as a key mediator during the US-Iran conflict and its efforts to seek an end to violence have earned worldwide acknowledgement." DH. "Pakistan is in a unique position as it is trusted by the US, Iran and the Gulf countries." Also Field Marshall Asim Munir is President Donald Trump's "favorite field marshall". BBC. On 17 September 2025, Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Arabia which commits "treating any act of aggression against one as an act against both (known as collective security". wikipedia. This means that Pakistan could face "a potential 'nightmare scenario' if negotiations collapse, and it gets dragged into fighting with its neighbor Iran" in support of the Saudis. That scenario is not as fanciful as it sounds because, "Saudi Arabia carried out a series of unpublicised airstrikes on Iran in late March in retaliation for attacks inside the kingdom during the Middle East conflict, according to sources cited by Reuters. The strikes marked the first known case of Saudi Arabia directly conducting military action on Iranian soil." TOI. To pacify Iran, "Pakistan has opened six overland transit routes to move shipments into Iran, aiming to clear more than 3,000 containers stranded at Karachi and Port Qasim," out of which, "Spanning just 89 kilometers, the Gwadar-Gabd corridor has been activated as a key land route connecting Pakistan to Iran, cutting travel time to the border to just 2-3 hours compared to 16-18 hours from Karachi." oilprice.com. It may seem very easy but Gwadar is a port city in the Pakistani province of Balochistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) connects Gwadar to the Chinese province of Xinjiang. wikipedia. A rebel group, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) "accuses Pakistan's federal government of exploiting the rich mineral resources of its largest province without the local population benefiting. In February, "The BLA said it had launched a coordinated operation dubbed Herof, or 'black storm' against security forces, and claimed to have killed 84 members of the security forces and kidnapped a further 18." The claim was not verified. BBC. To the BLA the CPEC is another means of exploitation of their people and so they have repeatedly attacked Chinese nationals forcing the government to form a force of 12,000 soldiers to protect Chinese nationals in the country. wikipedia. In further help to Iran, "Pakistan, which was trying to play the role of a mediator by holding peace talks to end the US-Iran war, allowed several Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields to shield them from American airstrikes, a report said." TOI. To get more friends, "Pakistan's Defence Minister Khwaja Asif, in an interview with Hum News.., indicated more progress towards formalizing a multilateral defence alliance among Muslim majority states, the so-called Islamic NATO." Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already have a defence pact and they are trying to get Qatar and Turkiye to join them. ET. In 2017 Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Qatar, known as the New Arab Cold War (wikipedia) which were restored in 2021 after mediation by Kuwait and the US (BBC). Pakistan seems to be becoming everybody's friend. What if they start fighting among each other? Whose side will it take? Perhaps, our Prime Minister could help. He has toured almost every country. And, is doing it again.  

Eat less for the nation.

"India has raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, government order said.., as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases of the metals and ease pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves." Reuters. "The ongoing West Asia crisis is a 'live balance of payments stress test' for the country - directly impacting inflation, the exchange rate and the current account, chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said." "Nageswaran called India's exposure to the West Asian crisis structural and cautioned that the 'readings' are not of a temporary shock that will self-correct when the situation stabilizes." TOI. Why not? What is he not telling us? After all, in December 2025, "RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra...characterised India's current macroeconomic moment as a 'rare Goldilocks period', that marks high economic growth and exceptionally low inflation."  DD News. Also, "India's foreign exchange reserves declined by 7.7 billion US dollars, standing at $690 billion for the week ending May 1." News on Air. Also, "The IGoM was informed that the country is secure, and there is no shortage of any petroleum product,..India has 60 days of crude oil, 60 days of Natural Gas and 45 days of LPG rolling stock," as per the Ministry of Defence press release." ET. If everything is hunky dory, as we Indians like to say, why is the CEA warning about a "live balance of payments stress test"? The last time we heard of a 'balance of payments' problem was in 1991, when we ended up pledging 67 tons of our gold to pay for our imports. wikipedia. Now, "As of September-end, out of total gold holdings of 880.8 tonnes, the RBI maintained 575.8 tonnes within India, while 290.3 tonnes remained in the custody of the Bank of England and Bank of International Settlements." TOI. We don't have to airlift any gold, it's already there. How convenient. So, what are they not telling us? The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Real GDP was above 12% since 2004, 6.2% (2014-2026) and below 5.5% (2019-2026). "GDP calculation revision with a new base year (2022-23) has revealed that earlier estimates (base year 2011-12) had overstated GDP." "Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has turned negative, reflecting diminished investor confidence." Vajiram & Ravi. "Since the beginning of the war, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has burnt nearly $38 billion in forex reserves, leading to a decline in import cover to 10.6 months from 11.3 months before the start of the war. Moreover, the RBI built up its gold reserves over the past year, and they now account for about 16% of total reserves. Excluding these, the import cover drops by about two months."  Mint. That means 8.6 months. In 2008, the subprime crisis affected the global economy with banking and trade severely affected (wikipedia) and the price of oil spiked to $128.08 per barrel in July (eia.gov) but we did not hear such alarming warnings. In 2024, India received $138 billion of inward remittance. Mint. As financial pressures build up all over the world, these might fall and the current account deficit would increase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked people to decrease the use of petrol, not to purchase gold and to use less cooking oil and India could borrow foreign exchange from Indian expatriates. Reuters. If Indians cut down on food they will need less cooking oil as well as less gas. That is double saving. Ingenious.    

Trust is gold.

"The central government has raised customs duties on imports of precious metals, including gold and silver from 6% to 15%, just days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to adopt austerity measures such as deferring decisions to buy gold by one year to save precious foreign exchange." HT. As an unintended consequence, "Indian jewellery market is seeing a surge in gold purchases, with sales up 15-20% after PM Modi asked people to delay gold spending." Customers are rushing to buy bridal jewellery due to fears of higher import duties or GST changes." Whalesbook. The rise in taxes on gold is great news for smugglers. In 2025, "Gold smuggling into India has spiked ahead of key festivals," although, "Smuggling of gold into the world's second biggest buyer of the precious metal had fallen after the government slashed import taxes on it to 6% from 15% last year." As "Gold prices in India hit a record Rs 128,395 per 10 grams," "smuggling a kilogram of gold is very lucrative for grey market operators, with margins exceeding Rs 1.15 million from dodging the 6% import duty and a 3% local sales tax." The margin had fallen to Rs 630,000 per kg after duty reduction. "In the 2024/25 fiscal year ended in March, government agencies registered  3,005 cases of gold smuggling and seized 2.6 metric tons of the metal." Reuters. Customs duty on gold is changed quite frequently. It was 4% in 2012, rose to 10% in 2013, then to 12.88% in 2019 and to 15% in 2022, before being slashed to 6% in 2024. primeinvestor.in. In 2015, the government introduced Sovereign Gold Bonds which were priced at the market value of 24 carat gold. This allowed Indians to invest in gold without actually buying the metal and since, this was priced in rupees, it saved foreign exchange for the government. wikipedia. However, by the time the bonds came up for redemption the price of gold had shot up, imposing a fiscal strain on finances and so customs duty was slashed to reduce the amount of payout. People perceived this as a loss due to price fixing. Indians buy gold as a hedge against government policy. Average consumer price index (CPI) inflation in India has been above 5% in most years since 2014 (rateinflation.com) , whereas it was below 2% in the US, rising to 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023, dropping to 2.6% in 2025. usinflationcalculator.com. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) did not increase interest rate to bring down inflation rates since August 2018, increasing it by 40 basis points in an emergency meeting in May 2022. ET. As a consequence the rupee has fallen from 62 to the dollar in 2014 (bookmyforex.com) to over 95 rupees to one dollar today (xe.com). Indians are not allowed to invest in foreign currency, known as capital account convertibility (tatamutualfund.com) so they buy gold which is priced in dollars. People do not understand monetary and fiscal policies but they can feel that their money is being transferred to the government. They buy gold. Trust is gold.

Spooky speech.

  Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked Indians to work from home and use public transport to use less fuel and farmers to use less chemical fertilisers to reduce use of petroleum products. He also asked Indians to stop buying gold, buy locally made shoes, bags and accessories and to cut cooking with oil to conserve foreign exchange. ET. When Dear Leader speaks the world listens. Or, at least, the markets do. And they did. "Immediately after this explosive speech from the PM, the stock market took a massive beating." "The effects of this speech delivered by Modi in Hyderabad was so severe that nearly Rs 7 trillion was wiped off the market." "The Sensex dropped around 1,313 points to close at 76,015, while the Nifty fell 360 points, ending at 23,816." gulte.com. "The rupee weakened by 82 paise to settle at a record low of 95.31 against the US dollar," as "Modi's comment sparked concern about the balance of payment challenges and stress in the economy.""Japanese financial services firm Nomura said the prime ministers' austerity appeal is a signal that India's fiscal position is reaching a tipping point." DH. Nomura projected that the current account deficit (CAD) will rise to 2.4% of GDP in FY27 and the fiscal deficit would be 4.6% of GDP, higher than the government's target of 4.3%. The rupee is trading at around 95.50 to one dollar this morning. xe.com. India's "Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) was launched in 2014 to achieve an open defecation free (ODF) India in five years." By 2019, "the campaign realized over 100 million household toilets constructed, benefiting 500 million people across 630,000 villages." sdgs.un.org. A rare success imitated by Nigeria, Indonesia and Ethiopia. If farmers are not to use chemical fertilisers, will they urinate and defecate to fertilize their fields? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been strenuous in its efforts to cut borrowing costs by increasing liquidity. A report by the Bank of Baroda noted that "the RBI reduced the repo rate from 6.50% to 5.25%, a cut of 125 basis points," "to lower borrowing costs and support private investment." ET. The RBI is also trying to infuse liquidity into the market "through open market purchases of government securities and long-tenor dollar-rupee swaps." At the same time dollar sales to support the rupee sucks liquidity out of the system. policycircle.org. Meanwhile, "Net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from the stock market for the current year crossed the Rs 2 trillion mark for the first time ever." TOI. Foreign funds convert rupees to foreign exchange before repatriation. It seems that the RBI is being vanquished by the 'Impossible Trinity' because it is trying to push down borrowing rates through monetary policy, allowing free capital movement by FPIs and support the rupee at the same time. But it's not just the impossibility of monetary policy but a failure of fiscal restraint is the conclusion from Mr Modi's speech. That's spooky. Extremely.                                                                                                                                                                                               

Fourteen curbs for us.

"Speaking at an event in Secunderabad,""Prime Minister Narendra Modi yesterday urged citizens to revive work-from-home practices and avoid non-essential foreign travels for at least a year, citing growing concern over the economic impact of the ongoing West Asia conflict." ET. Speaking in Hyderabad next, he enumerated 14 rules to be followed by citizens, including no foreign travel, use of public transport, reduce use of edible oil, not to buy gold and buy locally manufactured shoes, bags and accessories. ET. Dear Leader is known to offer advice on every subject, but surely being the foremost citizen of the nation he should lead by example. PM was in Secunderabad "inaugurating and laying the foundation stone for projects worth around Rs 94 billion in Telangana." ET. This was a most  non-essential travel and could have been delegated to some local politician with considerable saving in aviation fuel. Mr Modi's office is in Delhi (wikipedia), but his itinerary shows that he was not in his office almost throughout April and has already visited Bihar and West Bengal in May (pmindia.gov.in). In addition, he made 11 foreign trips in 2025 and has already been out of India twice this year (pmindia.gov.in) and is to shortly visit the United Arab Emirates on his way to the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy (HT). He could not tour Croatia, Norway and the Netherlands last year because of the Pahalgam attack on 22 April in which terrorists shot 26 civilians to death  (wikipedia). Most inconsiderate of the terrorists. In response, the Congress Party said that 'it was 'shameless, reckless and downright immoral' for the Prime Minister to ask people to face inconvenience instead of putting contingency measures in place to keep the economy insulated from the global crisis." India Today. And also to sit in his office for which he was elected. The Congress is entitled to ask because it was in office when the price of oil spiked to $80 a barrel in October 2007, rose to over $106 in April 2008 and then to $128 in July. The price fell in December 2008 but jumped again to over $80 per barrel in December 2010 and stayed above $90 barrel, occasionally reaching above $100, till August 2014. Since then it has stayed below $60 a barrel, briefly spiking in 2022 probably because of Covid. eia.gov. But, during the period the Congress was in power, the retail price of petrol stayed at reasonable levels, briefly reaching above Rs 70 per liter in 2013 and 2014. However, we have been paying over Rs 80 per liter since 2020 and over Rs 95 per liter since 2021. cleartax.in. Because of extortionate taxes levied by this government. We, the people, have been looted of over Rs 40 trillion through taxes on petrol since 2014-15 as government figures show. ppac.gove.in. Shameless and immoral. Power and tourism at any cost.

Endurance could be painful.

"The US economy created 115,000 jobs in April as businesses kept hiring despite the economic fallout from the US-Israel war in Iran. The increase was stronger than expected, with the total almost twice as much as economists had forecast." The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. BBC. "Unemployment rate of 5% or lower is often considered full employment in the real-world context." Zero unemployment would result in higher wages and lead to higher prices and inflation. Investopedia. "New orders for US factory goods rose more than expected in March, led by surging demand for electronics products amid the artificial intelligence investment boom." "Factory orders were up 1.5% on the month," from 0.3% in February and by "3.7% on a year-over-year basis in March." Reuters. In contrast, "War has imposed a heavy cost on Iran's economy: more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses." The US blockade of Iran's ports has dealt "a devastating blow to Iran's already-battered economy. Government revenue has dried up just as the needs of its population are rising." WSJ. "Early signs are that after years of dodging restrictions, this Iranian shadow fleet may have met its match in the US naval blockade - its ships now appear unable to leave the Persian Gulf." WSJ. The moderates in the Iranian government "believe in holding fire and negotiating a favorable deal with President Trump," while "A growing camp of hardliners believe Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices shooting and increase the pressure on Trump." WSJ. Even more virulent, "a small but influential hardline faction has intensified efforts to sabotage a potential deal with Washington," and this "ultra-hardline group has ramped up efforts across the media, in parliament and on the streets to advocate against an agreement with the US, arguing that only by defeating Washington can Iran secure a favorable deal." "Known as 'Jebhe-ye Paydari' - or the Endurance Front - its members are often described by observers as 'Super Revolutionaries' who view themselves as guardians of the values of the 1979 revolution that overthrew the pro-Western Shah." CNN. They may be afraid of being accused of being 'Takfiris' (wikipedia), having killed Muslim Iranians. They may remember the hanging of Saddam Hussein (wikipedia) as a punishment for losing against the US. Also higher oil prices mean higher revenue. Already, "Images of bareheaded women sipping coffee in cafes in Tehran, in apparent defiance of the Islamic Republic's strict dress rule, have stirred interest outside Iran," but "the rights of women are still restricted and they live under a system that arrested tens of thousands of people following the January protests and thousands more, including women, in the current war, according to rights groups." NDTV. There is a lot of accounting to be done. The Endurance Front don't want to endure that. Could be painful.                                                                                 

Fewer physical, higher digital.

"India recorded 5.89 million crimes in 2024, down 5.7% from 6.24 million in 2023, according to the Crime in India Report for 2024 released by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). The rate of crime per hundred thousand people in 2024 stood at 419, down from 448 in 2023 and the lowest since 2019, when this number was 385." HT. "Murders in India dropped by 2.4% in 2024," while "Crimes against women declined by 1.5%, with 441,000 cases reported in 2024 compared to 448,000 in the previous year. TOI. "Delhi retained the grim distinction of being the most unsafe metropolitan city for women for the fourth consecutive year, reporting the highest number of rape cases and a high share of violent crimes against women." Delhi, the capital city, recorded 13,396 cases of crimes against women: 1058 cases of rape, more than double that of Jaipur (497) and Mumbai (411); 3,974 cases of kidnapping and abduction; 4,647 cases of cruelty by husband or relatives; 755 cases of molestation and seven murders with rape. HT. Adding to its list of achievements, "Delhi recorded the highest number of dowry death cases among 19 metropolitan cities in 2024, continuing a grim trend that kept the national capital at the top of the ignominious list for the fifth consecutive year." According to NCRB, Delhi recorded 109 such incidents involving 111 victims. TOI. The total number of crimes fell 15.1% in Delhi, from 320,000 in 2023 to almost 280,000 in 2024. "Crimes committed by juveniles totaled 2,306 in 2024, including 144 cases of murder, 526 robberies and 217 incidents of snatching." On the other hand, there were 7,662 cases of crimes against children. "To put this in perspective, Mumbai recorded 3,374 such cases, and Bangalore 2,026 cases." TOI. There is some good news. Although a total of 5,20,614 persons (1,67,414 males, 3,52,729 females and 29 transgender) were reported missing in 2024, "a total of 5,03,602 persons (1,65,465 males, 3,38,116 females and 21 transgender) were recovered/traced." "A total of 98,375 children (22,768 males, 75,603 females and four transgender) were reported missing," but a total of 98,826 children (23,902 males, 74,919 females and five transgender)) were recovered/traced.  " The Print. Which means an extra 451 children, probably missing from previous years, were recovered. What unbelievable joy for distraught parents. These are incidents of physical crimes but it is cybercrime which is growing exponentially. "Over 86% of households are now connected to the internet," and "Cybersecurity incidents in India rose from 1.029 million in 2022 to 2.268 million in 2024." pib.gov.in. Elderly people are especially vulnerable to cybercrimes. "There was an 86% rise in cybercrimes targeting seniors between 2020 and 2022," during the Covid pandemic. "Investigations show that once victims send money, it is quickly moved through dozens of accounts and often converted to cryptocurrency to be moved out of the country." "The police have traced links to China and Cambodia." ST. Digital crimes are easier and potentially much more lucrative. If the government is keen to encourage digital transactions for surveillance purposes, then it is their duty to protect and recompense citizens against cybercrimes by the Chinese. It's an attack on our sovereignty.