How it won.

"Iran and the US agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire, during which shipping traffic will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz." US President Donald Trump "said he had agreed to 'suspend the bombing attack of Iran for a period of two weeks", and "Iran has agreed to allow vessels through the Hormuz Strait for two weeks, with their passage coordinated by the Iranian military." BBC. In a huge diplomatic achievement, "Pakistan has acted as an intermediary between Iran and the US over the last few weeks, passing messages between the two." It has a border with Iran and "regularly refers to its 'brotherly' relationship with that country." BBC. "On 16 January 2024, Iran conducted a series of missile strikes in Pakistan." "Two days later, on 18 January, Pakistan conducted a retaliatory series of missile strikes in Iran," "Iran's government condemned the strikes and stated that nine people had been killed, including four children." wikipedia. Kill children of "brotherly relationship". "Iran has the largest Shia majority, with more than 66 million making up nearly 90% of the population." BBC. "About 97% of Pakistanis are Muslims," with Sunnis making up 85%- 90%. wikipedia. On the one hand, in Pakistan, "Over 4000 Shias have been killed by sectarian violence in the past 20 years alone." CSOH. On the other hand, "In India, Shias enjoy constitutional protections that allow them to practice their faith openly. They have representation in politics, access to Shia-specific religious institutions, and the freedom to observe their rituals without fear." News18. The Hazaras, most of whom are Shia, are regularly massacred in Pakistan. The Print. In February 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was hosted at Blair House, the Presidential guest House in Washington  (NDTV), and "PM Modi is the first Indian Prime minister to address the joint session of the US Congress twice. He is also just the second international leader, after Israel Prime Minister Benjamim Netanyahu, to be granted the honor more than once (HT)." And yet, curiously, both Iran and the US chose to trust Pakistan as the mediator and not India. Pakistan's powerful army chief, Field Marshall Asim Munir, has built up a personal rapport with US President Donald Trump." Munir and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Washington following Operation Sindoor, the conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025, during which, "Sharif praised Trump's 'bold and visionary' intervention, while Munir said the US leader deserved the Nobel Peace Prize for stopping an escalation between the nuclear armed neighbors." ET. The Indian government claimed, "All strikes were executed without loss of Indian assets, underscoring the effectiveness of our surveillance, planning and delivery systems." pib.gov.in. Trump claimed to have stopped the conflict by threatening 200% tariff and said 11 planes were shot down, but "India has consistently denied all claims about any third-party intervention during the armed conflict in May 2025." NDTV. Pakistan has agreed to use World Liberty Financial stablecoin for cross-border transactions (TOI), while Indian media portrayed it as an inducement to Trump's family. Even if we won Operation Sindoor, we have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The US and Iran trusted Pakistan's duplicity. Pakistan won.

Obesity on candid camera.

"A day after Semaglutide lost patent protection in India, top drug makers including Dr Reddy's, Sun Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences launched generic versions priced 50-90% below the innovator brands, kicking off an aggressive scramble for share in the fast-growing weight-loss and diabetes market." "GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs such as Semaglutide work by mimicking a natural hormone that signals the brain to feel full and slow down digestion, helping one to eat less and lose weight more effectively." Mint. Concerned by likely indiscriminate use of these drugs the Indian government has published a list of their side effects and has made it illegal to sell without prescription. Defining obesity as BMI over 25 kg/m2, it advised, "Obesity is preventable and reversible. To prevent and reduce obesity," people should: Reduce calories from fats and sugars, increase intake of fruits, vegetables,legumes and whole grains, and exercise daily. pib.gov,in. The use of the body mass index (BMI) by doctors is wrong and emphasis on weight-loss diets on social media are examples of bias against fat people and of fat shaming. withinhealth.com. But buying expensive drugs which mimic dieting is not. Strange. "The India GLP-1 receptor agonist market size was estimated at $110.55 million in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 34.3%" to reach $513.1 million by 2030. Grand View Research. However, eye-watering profits will not be limited to pharma companies. As people put on weight the skin stretches, so rapid, significant weight loss leads to loose folds of skin resulting in facial aging (aao.org) and ugly folds elsewhere in the body (Dr John Burns) which need plastic surgery. Should the drugs be continued lifelong? A study at Cleveland Clinic showed that "After 1 year without medication, those in the obesity group regained an average of 0.5% of body weight, and those treating type 2 diabetes lost average 1.3% of body weight on average." Medical News Today. However, 27% switched to another obesity drug, 20% restarted the original drug, 14% continued exercise and diet and less than 1% required bariatric surgery. That is about 68% of the sample. The Drug Controller General of India (DGCI) is considering allowing chemists to sell loose tablets to cut costs for patients who have to buy an entire strip of 10-15 tablets when they may not need more than 5-6. Mint. The chemist will, naturally, keep the part of the strip with the name, price and expiry date so as to be able to sell the rest at a later date. How will anyone know what the patient is taking? At the same time the "Drug Consultative Committee has agreed to make the installation of CCTV cameras at medical stores mandatory." ET. That means no more medical confidentiality as any government official will be able to access information. So, patients and doctors won't know what loose tablets the patient is taking, but the police will. Is that a definition of a 'police state'  (wikipedia)? No wonder, "A nationwide survey of over 1,200 Indian doctors has revealed that more than nine in ten physicians would hesitate to recommend medicine as a career to their own children." India Today. Let politicians, civil servants and the police treat patients as a side hustle. No need for doctors. Everything will be on Candid Camera anyway.   

Iran's strength.

Four days back, "Iran's downing of two US military aircraft marks the first time in more than 20 years that American warplanes have been shot down by enemy fire, underlining Tehran's ability to retaliate despite claims by US President Donald Trump that the country has been 'completely decimated'." The US confirmed that an F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down. "One service member has been rescued, while search operations continue for another." TOI. Three days back, the missing weapons officer "was rescued by US Special Operations Forces in a risky Saturday night mission that took commandos deep into enemy territory." There were no US casualties and "All commandos and the weapons officer returned safely." DH. The rescue mission involved 155 aircraft, including four bombers, 64 fighters, 48 refueling tankers, 13 rescue aircraft, and more, Trump said." Two planes got bogged down in the soil and "were destroyed to keep them out of enemy hands." BBC. This operation values the officer at hundreds of millions of dollars. "One of the biggest miscalculations by Washington and its allies appears to be the expectation that sustained strikes would destabilize Iran internally," "Instead, Iran's power structure has adapted. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has consolidated control and continues to drive both military operations and internal security." MC. Iran has resorted to asymmetric warfare and its "strategy is based around the Shahed, a one-way attack drone costing between $20,000 and $50,000." "Iran has fired thousands of these drones since the war began, combining them with more expensive ballistic missiles in an attempt to overwhelm air defenses." DW. Perhaps, Iran's main strength is its disregard for the welfare of its citizens. Iran's Ministry of Health told Time Magazine that 30,000 protesters were killed on 8 and 9 January alone. Even now, Iran is executing civilians. yahoo.com. Whereas, the US media conduct polls showing that a majority of Americans are against the war, to pressure Trump. pbs.org. The US Department of Defense planned to spend $995.13 billion in fiscal 2026. usaspending.gov. Why spend so much of taxpayer money on defense if it is just for show? With a population of nearly 350 million (worldometer), every citizen could receive over $3000 each, $12,000 for a family of four, if this money was saved. Iran has responded to US attacks by attacking Gulf countries (Reuters), consisting of a large majority of Sunni Muslims. Of the total of over 2 billion Muslims in the world, 1.7-1.8 billion are Sunni and about 200-300 are Shia. Iran and the south of Iraq are mostly Shia. wikipedia. Yet, with more than six times the number, the Sunnis seem to be terrified of Shia Iran. TOI. "An Iranian official on Tuesday (today) called on youths in the country to form human chains around power plants ahead of potential strikes threatened by US President Donald Trump." Fox. It's striking that they are willing to sacrifice ordinary people but not the IRGC or the Basij militia thugs. Was it a request or an order? Will they force ordinary people at gunpoint? They can and may. Inhuman scum. Yet the US media is rooting for Iran. That's how treacherous they are. That is Iran's strength. 

They are Americans.

"Pepsi has announced it is withdrawing as main sponsor of the Wireless Festival in London this summer after news that Kanye West is to headline the three-day event. The US rapper, now known as Ye, has drawn widespread criticism for antisemitic comments he made in recent years and for which he issued an apology in January." BBC. "Wireless Festival is an annual rap and hip-hop music festival that takes place in London England," and Kanye West has been listed among the greatest rappers of all time with 160 million records sold. (wikipedia). As an American company, Pepsi's withdrawal is strange because, "For the past two years, college and university campuses across the US have become hotbeds of antisemitism and intense anti-Israel activism." ADL. Perception matters. In March, "Seven foreign nationals including an American are in NIA custody after a Delhi court granted the anti-terror agency 11 days to investigate an alleged conspiracy to train ethnic armed groups in drone warfare. The six others are Ukrainian nationals." NDTV. "Home Minister Amit Shah...said a group of foreigners...arrested recently by NIA from Kolkata, Lucknow and Delhi did not pose any threat to India, but were trying to use the country as a transit point to Myanmar for terror training." TOI. So we are safe, or are we? Would any other country allow 'terrorist trainers' to use it as a "transit point" and what if radicalized Indians accompanied them to Myanmar and returned after training? Yesterday, "Delhi Police Special Cell and Maharashtra ATS arrested two radicalized suspects in Mumbai, alleging links to Jaish-e-Mohammed and Islamic State. They were allegedly planning a toy car bomb attack  in Delhi." India Today. India does not dare arrest an American. Perception matters. On 12 June 2025, Air India Flight 171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner crashed 32 seconds after take off from Ahmedabad Airport, killing 12 crew members and 229 passengers. One passenger survived. "On the ground, 19 people were killed, and 67 others were seriously injured." wikipedia. A cover up is underway. "Multiple Boeing whistleblowers have revealed several manufacturing defects in the 787s," especially VT-ANB, which was the AI171 Aircraft: "structural gaps, force-fit assembly practices, and water leakage from toilets into electric bays. Then there's the history of 787 incidents: battery fires, control failures, fuel leaks and even fuel switch issues," wrote S Raghotham. India may end up blaming the pilots under American pressure, just as Union Carbide was allowed to walk away with a token payout of $470 million for the deaths of 8,000 and injuries to 558,175 people (wikipedia). Americans can kill thousands of Indians with impunity. Perception matters. On 2 December 2025, the Union Home Ministry revealed in the Lok Sabha that only 335 persons, out of 10,440 arrests under the draconian Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, had been convicted. The Wire. So, Judges in the Nirav Modi trial in London said "proscribed treatment (torture) to obtain confessions" was "commonplace and endemic". TOI. Where there is no proof, torture is necessary for confessions. Indians a 'Jm Crow' nation? Yes Massa. Perception matters. 

The power to buy.

"After extensive consultation, govt has decided to retain the retail inflation target for the monetary policy committee (MPC) at 4%. For the next five years the tolerance band of 2-6% has also been retained, according to the notification issued by the Finance Ministry." TOI. This allows the MPC of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to set low policy rates by ignoring inflation at up to 6%. The flexible inflation target of 4%+/- 2% was first set by the government in 2016 for a five year period and was renewed in 2021. prsindia. org. However, the RBI kept its policy rate unchanged at 4% from May 2020 to May 2022 when it raised the rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40% (BBC) even though the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate was 6.28% in May 2020, rising to 7.61% in October 2020, and stayed near or above 6% till May 2022 (RI), when it raised rates in an emergency meeting because the US Federal Reserve raised interest rate by 50 bps (bankrate.com). Rising prices mean that the rupee is buying less, or the rupee is depreciating in value. The US targets an inflation rate of 2%, which is the target rate for most developed economies. Brazil targets 4.5%+/-2%, Mexico 3%+/-1%, Indonesia 5%+/-1% and Russia targets 4%. IMF. If the inflation rate in the US (usinflationcalculator.com) stays below that in India the dollar will keep getting stronger against the rupee. The rupee has fallen from 66.46 to one dollar in 2016 (bankbazaar.com) to 92.92 this morning (xe. com), having recovered from 95.220 on 31 March 2026 (in.investing.com). India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $10.3 billion in the week ended 27 March 2026 to $688.1 billion, having fallen by $11.4 billion to $698.4 billion in the week ended 20 March. TOI. Though some of it was because of a fall in the price of gold, most of it was because the RBI sold dollars to support the rupee. In addition, "The RBI's unorthodox move to steady the rupee by forcing a banks to unwind foreign exchange positions beyond $100 million will prevent its slide towards 95," but, "The move will also cause banks with large open positions to lose money." TOI. Following that, the RBI protected the rupee further  "by targeting the rebooking of canceled forex derivative contracts and tightening norms around related party contracts." Mint. "The Indian rupee may weaken to a record 100 per dollar or beyond," as "Analysts at Wells Fargo and Van Eck Associates Corp say elevated oil prices will accelerate the rupee's decline by worsening inflation and the current account deficit." ET. Yield on India's benchmark 10 year bonds is at 7.129% this morning (in. investing. com), greatly raising the borrowing costs for the government. The fall in the value of the rupee from 66.46 to 92.92 against one dollar is a 59.86% drop. The dollar has also lost some value in that period, which means there has been over 65% erosion in the value of the wealth of Indians in the 12 years of this government. And, the ability to buy. That is some achievement.

Taxing sins.

"India's economic outlook remains supported by strong domestic demand and improving high-frequency indicators, but rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, pose significant risks, including possibility of stagflation, according to a report by Morgan Stanley." ET. "India's net Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose to Rs 1.78 trillion in March 2026, registering a growth of 8.2% compared to the same period last year, as per official data." Gross GST collections grew 8.8% to Rs 2 trillion. "For the full financial year 2025-26, gross GST collections rose 8.3% year-on-year to over Rs 22.27 trillion, while net GS revenue grew 7.1% to Rs 19.34 trillion." ET. Starting on 22 September 2025, GST rates were reduced to 5%  from 12% on a range of commonly used goods and to 18% from 28% on automobiles, air conditioners, televisions and washing machines. cleartax.in. If collections have increased despite lower rates, it means that demand and sales have surged. Unfortunately, fruit juices, non-alcoholic beverages and carbonated beverages continue to be taxed at 40%. "India's taxation for non-alcoholic beverages stands out as one of the most onerous in the world." "The median global tax rate for carbonated beverages hovers around 18.4%." Also, at 351.9 million tonnes, India had the second largest horticultural production in 2022-23, so lower taxes would increase demand for fruit juices, wrote Aruna Sharma. All these drinks are treated as 'sin' products possibly because, "India is among the top three countries globally with the highest number of children affected by excess weight, with about 41 million aged 5-19 living with high body mass index (BMI), including nearly 14 million with obesity." "The rise is being driven by easy access to calorie-dense foods, sugary drinks and ultra-processed products, along with declining physical activity and increasing screen time." TOI. "A debate around banning social media for children under 16 is gathering momentum in India," as Australia has done, but "Experts, however, warn that such a ban would not be easy in India and could face legal challenges." BBC. Municipalities have to arrange easily accessible playing grounds and swimming pools for children to exercise in. India's middle class is becoming poorer. "A family that lived comfortably on Rs 1 million in 2016 would now need close to Rs 2 million a year." As prices have surged, "Their salary, in most cases, has barely moved. The middle class is on a treadmill, and every year the belt speeds up." BBC. Poverty has a strong indirect relation to obesity in developed countries (Medical News Today) but this phenomenon is now being seen in low and middle income countries as well. As salaries stagnate, both parents have to work to continue the same standard of living, so there is no time to cook. It is easier to order junk food online. What is a greater sin - non-alcoholic beverages, social media, tasty calories without nutrition, or falling salaries? Who should we ask? Government, priests or people. Difficult.            

Make it entertaining.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump delivered a primetime address to the nation on Operation Epic Fury targeting Iran's nuclear program. The White House. The reaction to his speech has been due to hatred of Trump rather than a dispassionate analysis of Iran's nuclear capability and its determination to build a nuclear weapon. "Trump, facing a war-wary American public and sliding poll numbers," "stopped short of offering a firm timeline for an end to hostilities." Reuters. This is not a game of American football whose timing is dictated by television companies. "An average professional football game lasts 3 hours and 12 minutes, but if you tally up the time when the ball is actually in play, the action amounts to a mere 11 minutes." A Wall Street Journal "analysis found that an average NFL broadcast spent more time on replays (17 minutes) than live play." "The average NFL game includes 20 commercial breaks containing more than 100 ads." Quartz, Perhaps, the US Army could show commercials on laxatives after showing a missile striking an Iranian target. Or female soldiers could show how to get in and out of Interceptor Body Armor (Premier Body Armor) without suffering a 'wardrobe malfunction' as in the halftime show at Superbowl XXXVIII (wikipedia). Americans would no longer be "war-wary" and the US government could potentially earn billions of dollars. "While threatening new air strikes if Iran tries to move the stockpile (of uranium), he (Trump) made no mention of sending special forces on a risky mission to seize it." Reuters. Revealing when and where special forces would attack would eliminate surprise and expose them to counterattack. It would be better if they carry body cameras (wikipedia) showing live action, and uniforms carrying ads. Very entertaining. Trump says that the US produces its own oil and has no need to buy from the Gulf. Those countries that do should "build up some delayed courage...Go to the Strait and just take it. Protect it. Use it for yourselves." He was probably addressing craven Europeans who have been protected by Nato, while contributing very little. The US spent $$980 billion on Nato last year which was 62% of the Nato total. BBC. Trump has threatened to pull out of Nato, which consists of European countries, plus Canada.  Reuters. If the US withdraws its troops and arms from Nato countries it would reassure Russia (wikipedia) and would end the conflict in Ukraine. Apparently, Germany is building up its army because it fears an attack by Russia. BBC. This is so much rubbish that it insults our intelligence. Russia has enormous natural resources and would want nothing from Germany. Secondly, Germany invaded the Soviet Union on 22 June 1941 in Operation Barbarossa  (wikipedia). The Soviet Union won World War II by defeating the German Army, losing 8 million soldiers and 16 million civilians. History Ireland.On 24 June 1812, Nepoleon of France invaded Russia  (wikipedia) and suffered a crushing defeat. It would be best if the US breaks away from these lying, treacherous Europeans and eradicates the fanatical Iranian regime. That will end support for terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis, bring peace to the Middle East and prevent further bloodshed. Oil prices will plunge as sanctions are removed on Iran and the global economy will boom. But first, entertain US citizens. Live coverage with commercials. Polls will skyrocket.   

Losing to AI.

In India, "The artificial intelligence (AI) explosion and the adoption of cloud services are growing rapidly, and as a result, our digital footprint is seeing a record growth. Currently our data center (DC)'s capacity is around 1.5 GW, but we are looking at a mega leap, potentially reaching 9 GW or more by 2030." ET. But, this is not creating employment. "Between 2004-05 and 2023, while approximately 5 million graduates were added each year, only around 2.8 million found employment, and an even smaller share found salaried employment, contributing to rising graduate employment and slowing earnings growth," said the State of Working India 2026 Report from the Azim Premji University. India has "367 million young people between the ages of 15 and 29," and 269 million constitute the potential workforce. "Between 2007 and 2017, the share of students from the poorest households enrolled in higher education rose from 8% to 17%." But, "Nearly 40% of graduates aged 15-25 - and 20% of those aged 25-29 - are jobless, far higher than the less educated." BBC. The Economic Survey of Delhi 2025-26 showed, "At every stage of schooling, girls are now enrolling in greater numbers than boys." At primary school level the ratio stands at 107.2 girls to 97.4 boys, at secondary school it is 104.7 girls to 98 boys and at higher secondary school it is 87.2 girls to 78.7 boys. TOI. This is in spite of "the sex ratio (at birth) in the capital has declined to 920 females per 1,000 males in 2024 as compared to 922 in 2023." The national average is 940 females per 1000 males. TNIE. "The overall unemployment rate among all graduates aged 22-29 runs as high as 33%. This rate drops to below 4% after age 30." "Young men eventually succumb to economic pressure and accept whatever work is available. Young women by contrast, often exit the labor force altogether, retreating into unpaid domestic care work. The data shows this starkly: male unemployment falls because men find some job, female unemployment falls because women stop looking," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Across India, the quiet machinery of automation has been reshaping - and in many cases eliminating - jobs that the middle class was built on." Unable to earn a decent income, about 9 million Indians lost $12 billion speculating on the Futures and Options (F&O) stock market, "roughly equal to the federal government's entire annual education budget." White collar job creation has fallen from 11% growth before 2020 to just 1% today and "Across IITs nationally, 8,000 of 21,500 graduates remain unemployed." A family that lived comfortably on Rs 1 million in 2016 would now need close to Rs 2 million a year. The salary, in most cases, has barely moved. The middle class is on a treadmill, and every year the belt speeds up." BBC. "Oracle has reportedly begun a major round of job cuts in India, with around 12,000 employees said to have been laid off and more reductions likely in the coming weeks, according to affected staff." ET. "Over the past three-and-a-half decades, India's software industry has created millions of white-collar jobs, spawning a new middle class driven by high ambition and strong purchasing power." But, "Some CEOs have even warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs." BBC. It's a disaster for those laid off. Humiliation with despair. And, no future.         

We have seen worse.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...said the country's economic fundamentals are strong, and compared to other emerging market economies, the Indian rupee is 'absolutely going fine' against the US dollar." DH. "The Finance Ministry's March Monthly Economic Review noted that economic activity remained robust up to February, supported by strong supply- and demand-side indicators, resilient domestic consumption, and sustained public capital expenditure." But, the Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran warned that "signs of moderation are beginning to emerge as shocks from the Israel-Iran conflict ripple through the economy." ET. "The #Lockdown is trending across India on social media platform X, with users expressing anxiety." and "some posts draw parallels with the 2016 demonetisation, others show long queues outside petrol pumps, fueling concerns of panic buying." ET. On 8 November 2016, the same day our BFF Donald Trump won his first term as President by defeating Hillary Clinton (wikipedia), Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes were banned, as "Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave only four hours' notice that virtually all the cash in the world's seventh-largest economy would be effectively worthless" (BBC). This led to very long queues outside banks (shutterstock.com) and some died of heart attacks while waiting to exchange old notes for new ones (TNIE) probably due to stress. At 8 pm on 24 March 2020, Mr Modi announced a stringent lockdown with just 4 hours notice (cbc.ca), when there were only 519 confirmed cases of coronavirus with nine deaths at the time, causing great hardship for the citizens of India (BBC). In panic, people crammed into shops to buy essentials (The Quint), which could have spread the virus to a larger peopulation. As migrant workers lost their jobs and all public transport stopped, millions of families with little children were forced to walk hundreds of miles back to their villages, sleeping by the roadside and surviving on food and water from local people. TOI. The government did nothing. Following lockdown, from April 2020-January 2021, India's combined merchandise and services exports were $394.96 billion, 10.89% lower than $443.24 billion in the same period in 2019-20, while combined imports were $400.84 billion in 2020-21, 22.10% lower than $514.57 billion in 2019-20. Trade deficit fell from $71.33 billion to $5.88 billion. pib.gov.in. When Russia-Ukraine conflict started in February 2014 (wikipedia) there were predictions of a rise in inflation as supplies of oil, fertilizers and minerals would be adversely affected (grm.institute). In the event, India's exports to Russia increased from $1.8 billion in 2011-12 to $3.3 billion in 2021-22, while imports increased from $4.8 billion in 2011-12 to $9.9 billion in 2021-22. Trade with Ukraine increased from $3 billion to $3.4. India Exim Bank. Taking advantage of deep discounts offered by Russia, India imported crude oil worth $144 billion since the start of the conflict. NDTV. Covid lasted two years. Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. Yet, after only one month of the Iran conflict people are hysterical. Collective idiocy?        

There is no problem.

"Strong growth, low inflation and robust foreign exchange reserves will help India tide over the disruptions caused by the West Asia war, even as the energy crisis has made investors nervous, according to Ben Powell of BlackRock Investment." Mint. As a result of the nervousness, "Foreign investors are withdrawing funds from India at an unprecedented pace. In the 27 days of March alone, foreign portfolio investors sold equities worth over $13 billion (Rs 1.1 trillion), the largest monthly outflow on record." The rupee has fallen from Rs 83 per dollar in early 2024, and from 90.95 on 27 February 2026, to 94.65 per dollar on 30 March 2026. Ind Tod. Prof Ashima Goyal felt that, even with oil at $100 per barrel, India was in a "good space". "What we need to understand is if you deflated it by the GDP deflator or the consumer price index, then this $100 is equal to $56 today," and economic growth will be 7% in FY27 and 6% in FY28, she said. FPI "outflows in FY26, at $16.4 bn, are the highest in 28 years," "India is likely to have BoP (balance of payments) deficit for 3 successive years beginning in FY25 (before Gulf conflict), and possibly a capital account and current account deficit for the first time since 1991," and "India's goods and services trade deficit has expanded at $110 billion from $90 billion in the first 11 mths of current fiscal," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh. However, our macro fundamentals are strong so a Brics+ currency, instead of the dollar, and India's SFMS (Structured Financial Messaging System), possibly instead of the SWIFT, or Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (wikipedia) should manage the crisis. "India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed that BRICS countries link their respective official digital currencies to facilitate cross-border trade financing and tourism sector payments," to bypass the dollar. IDN. If digital currencies are linked how will the RBI manage the rupee's exchange rate? "The RBI's unorthodox move to steady the rupee by forcing banks to unwind foreign exchange positions beyond $100 million will prevent its slide towards 95," but "The move will also cause banks with large open positions to lose money." TOI. How can the RBI force private, and even foreign, banks to incur losses? Can banks sue the RBI? In 1991, the RBI had to pledge 47 tons of gold with the Bank of England and 20 tons with the Union Bank of Switzerland to raise $600 million and the Government of India required an emergency loan of $7 billion from the International Monetary Fund to deal with a BoP crisis. wikipedia. In the week ended 20 March 2026, the RBI sold gold worth $13.495 billion so that India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $11.413 billion to $698.346 billion. whalesbook. In addition, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expects the RBI to transfer Rs 3.16 trillion as dividend this year. MC. Will the RBI sell more gold to obey the FM? With assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in one month's time (wikipedia), the government has cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 each, to keep retail prices unchanged, but has imposed a Rs 21.5 tax on exports of diesel and a Rs 29.5 on exports of aviation turbine fuel (ATF). newsonair.gov.in. Goodbye foreign oil companies. Before Bihar Assembly election in 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi transferred Rs 10,000 to bank accounts of 7.5 million women in Bihar at a cost of Rs 75 billion. pib.gov.in. Subsidies and cash transfers cost the Union government Rs 6.33 trillion in 023-24, up from Rs 2.76 trillion in 2018-19, wrote Aditya Sinha. Women of West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may be expecting Rs 15-20,000 from Mr Modi before the elections. Sell more gold. No problem.