The weakness in longevity.

On 26 May, Narendra Modi completed 12 years as prime minister, as "On this day in 2014, Mr Modi took the oath as Prime Minister." newsonair.gov.in. Apparently, he became the longest serving prime minister on 10 June, 2026. The Union Cabinet passed a resolution, applauding this milestone. "By establishing a record of 4,399 days of continuous service as an elected PM, he has surpassed the previous record held by Shri Jawaharlal Nehru, who served for 4,398 continuous days from 1952 to 1964." pib.gov.in. "Leaders from across the world, including US President Donald Trump, congratulated PM Narendra Modi,...with several describing the milestone as a reflection of the trust reposed in him by voters over three consecutive parliamentary elections." TOI. If we are talking numbers, then Mr Modi did not win the 2024 general election outright. With 240 seats, the BJP is well short of the required majority of 272, and Mr Modi has managed to hang on to his kursi (chair) with the support of TDP (16 seats), JDU (12 seats) and an assortment of smaller parties. indiavotes.com. Mr Nehru never had any need of multiple poles supporting his kursi and neither did Ms Indira Gandhi. adrindia.org. It is unclear how Mr Modi has surpassed Mr Nehru with 4,399 days in office since, "Nehru was in office for over 6,000 days, from 15 August 1947 till 27 May 1964, the day he died." "Indira Gandhi was also in office for almost 6,000 days, which is likely the reason that awkward word'uninterruptedly' has been used," wrote Aakar Patel. How will Mr Modi be remembered in 2086, after six decades. Most likely he will be forgotten like many other prime ministers India has had. But, why is Nehru still remembered and why does the BJP still keep bringing him up? "It is because of what he left behind." Nehru left behind institutions of every sort - educational, scientific, cultural and medical. The present period will be remembered for "Bulldozers, lynchings, Special Intensive Revisions (wikipedia) and so on. Trump's congratulation of Mr Modi is ironic, in that his second term will end on 20 January 2029 (govtrack.us) and he is barred from standing again. Mr Modi has no intention of giving up his kursi. Trump was impeached twice during his first term. Trump was ordered to pay more than $350 million in a case of business fraud by a court in New York in February 2024. BBC. Can anyone be mad enough to imagine that Mr Modi can ever be held to account in a court of law in India? Mr Modi never answers questions. In May 2026, "As he walked away after a joint press appearance with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, journalist Helle Lyng called out to him, asking why he does not take questions, but got no response." "Later in a press conference by Indian diplomats, "Lyng asked, 'Why should we trust you (India)? Can you stop the human rights violations that go on in your country?'" BBC. In the Netherlands, Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten "told reporters just before Modi arrived that there were concerns among the Netherlands and other EU member states about 'developments in India' under Modi's BJP." The Wire. "The Catholic Church has strongly criticised the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)" and "referred to an incident in Odisha where a pastor was allegedly forced to eat cow dung during a prayer meeting by right wing goons." The Wire. In another incident in Odisha, a pastor's wife complained to the police that "a mob of 15-20 people allegedly assaulted her husband, smeared sindoor (vermillion used by married Hindu women) on his face, garlanded him with footwear and paraded him through the village. She further alleged that the group forced him to drink drain water and bow before a temple against his will." The Wire. Ms Georgia Meloni is the Prime Minister of Italy whose capital, Rome, is where the Vatican City (wikipedia), the epicenter of Catholicism, is based. So why did these leaders praise Mr Modi when they know how he wins elections by inciting Hindus, using investigative agencies to harass opposition leaders (Reuters) and dropping g all criminal charges against opposition politicians who join the BJP, so that the BJP is called the "washing machine party" (The Print)? Because they know that a man who will do anything to stay in is terrified of losing power in case he is held to account for his actions. So they can make him do what they want. They control India.         

Outsource the war and take the plaudits.

Yesterday, "The US says it has carried out a series of strikes on Iranian military and surveillance sites in response to the downing of an American helicopter in the Gulf." In tit-for-tat retaliation, "Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched strikes on 21 targets at US bases in the region, one in Bahrain and the other in Jordan." BBC. On 3 June, "One person was killed in an Iranian attack targeting civilian facilities in Kuwait, including the international airport and diplomatic missions, the foreign ministry said." Reuters. These attacks are despite a ceasefire agreed between Iran and the US on 8 April 2026. Iran's demands for an end to the war (wikipedia) seem so one-sided that it would be an insult to accept them. Why does Iran keep escalating the conflict when its economy is in a state of collapse? In April, its currency, the Rial plunged to 1.58 million to one dollar, its infrastructure is shattered and inflation is close to 40%. "Amir, a resident of Tehran, said the price of a basic food item jumped from 700,000 rials to 1 million rials, while a cancer treatment tablet that earlier cost three million rials surged to 180 million rials." "Factories, power plants, railways, airports and bridges have been hit, while trade ties with Gulf states - a key economic channel - have been severed possibly for years." TOI. The regime has responded with greater violence against its people, with more arrests and executions (Arab news), who are probably too debilitated by their efforts to survive to offer any resistance. The problem with the US is that it is terrified of any of its soldiers returning home in body bags. The death of six soldiers killed by an Iran drone strike in Kuwait was commemorated in a solemn ceremony, attended by President Donald Trump. pbs.org. On the other hand, the Iranian regime responds to any dissent with lethal power and uses the large number of corpses (CNN) to terrify its people into submission. The US also seems reluctant to target individual Ayatollahs, IRGC officers and the Basij thugs in their offices and homes, whether due to lack of intelligence or some woke sense of morality, is hard to tell. If they are paralysed with fear why not help the Israelis take the fight to the Iranian regime. "Israel secretly deployed military and intelligence units to Azerbaijan...as part of a network of covert sites across the Middle East to facilitate operations against Iran." The forces were "adjacent to Iran's northern border and, at its closest point, only about 60 miles from the Iranian city of Tabriz, Which Israel struck during the war." "Special commando units were also deployed to the location and carried out intelligence gathering missions and drone operations." "Together, the deployments described by the sources placed Israeli forces along Iran's southern, western and northern periphery during the war, extending the military's range by hundreds of miles, deep into Iranian territory." Israel also had facilities in Somaliland on the Horn of Africa, two secret facilities in Iraq and quietly deployed an Iron Dome battery in the UAE. CNN. Since yesterday, "The United States began a fresh round of strikes against multiple targets overnight in Iran, the US military said...as President Donald Trump vowed even more attacks if no peace deal secured." ET. Iran struck US military assets in Bahrain and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. ET. What is the point of having an army if you are not ready to kill, or be killed. Outsource the war to Israel. Support them with no fear of body bags. Take the plaudits when the job is done. Israel will have no objection.                

Controlled RBI, decontrolled foreigners.

"Even as the global economy faces uncertainty from slowing growth, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, the World Bank believes India is well-positioned to maintain strong economic growth and continue creating jobs. A senior World Bank official Paul Procee said India's economic fundamentals, expanding trade partnerships and large domestic market provide a strong foundation for sustained growth in the years ahead." MC. The World Bank's optimism is not shared by Indians. "Urban consumers turned more pessimistic about the economy, jobs and spending in May," as, "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Urban Consumer Confidence Survey (UCCS) showed consumer confidence for the current period fell for the third consecutive round, with the Current Situation Index (CSI) declining to 90.7 in May from 95.7 in March." ET. Since anything below 100 is negative, it seems that people are going from pessimism towards hopelessness. Current employment conditions fell from minus 9.1 to minus 14.4, naturally "The net response on overall spending eased to 74.0 from 78.4." Trying to support the falling rupee, the government "granted full tax exemption on interest income and capital gains earned on government securities by foreign investors." And also the Bank for International Settlements. Capital gains on securities held for longer than 12 months was taxed at 12.5%, while less than 12 months faced a 20% tax. Mint. The RBI "expanded the range of government bonds that foreign investors can buy without investment restrictions," and "also raised the limits for investments by non-resident Indians (NRIs) and overseas citizens of India (OCI) in listed Indian equities without requiring registration with market regulator SEBI." ET. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is the regulator for securities, stock and commodity markets. wikipedia. The SEBI is silent, so is the RBI intruding on SEBI's territory? If so, how? In his acceptance speech of the 2026 John F Kennedy Profile in Courage Award, former Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell said, "Central banks make monetary policy under high uncertainty," and they "do not take into account the fortunes of any political party or politician in making those decisions." "The reason the Fed has been able to resist political pressure is that it is protected by institutional mechanisms that mandate its independence." MInt. The SEBI is "under the administrative domain of Ministry of Finance within the government of India," while "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. To increase trade the government has signed "15 operational free trade agreements (FTA) covering 27 countries, while another nine agreements involving 42 countries are awaiting implementation." But the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) warned that "Rising trade deficits, limited use of FTA benefits by exporters, manufacturing distortions and growing regulatory burdens are among the issues that could erode the gains." ET. The RBI has told "state-run firms and local banks to raise dollars overseas, bring them home, and get a big discount on their hedging cost until Sept. 30." The authorities are trying to "stabilize the currency, keep domestic rates low, and avoid capital controls." But, "The only path to lasting peace on India's external accounts goes through higher (interest) rates," wrote Andy Mukherjee. At its recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 5 June, the interest rate was left unchanged at 5.25%, while the GDP growth forecast was cut from 6.9% to 6.6% and the inflation rate forecast for 2026-27 was raised to 5.1% from 4.6%. ET. Which means "the effective real rate of interest falling to close to zero by the second quarter (if one considers the repo rate of 5.25% and second quarter inflation at 5.1%) and negative 0.65% if one takes the third-quarter inflation projection of 5.9%," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. Trying to increase hot money flows without decreasing consumption, by raising rates, will store problems for the future. Are the RBI's actions based on an analysis of India's economy in relation to global events and how other nations are reacting to those events, or are they based on prayers that the Iran conflict would be over soon and oil prices will plummet as sanctions of Iran are lifted, causing a glut of oil in the market? However, even if the conflict is over tomorrow, it may take years to repair war damage before oil flows resume at full flow. Our future resting on a wing and a prayer. Like, the official motto of the US is "In God we trust". wikipedia. Hindi-Yankee bhai bhai.        

Anti-AI is no advantage.

"India recorded a current account surplus of $7.1 billion (0.7% of GDP) in the January-March quarter of FY26 supported by higher services exports and a rise in remittances from overseas Indians," but lower than the $13.7 billion, or 1.4% of GDP, in the same quarter of the last financial year. "However, for the full financial year 2025-26, the current account deficit widened to $25.2 billion, or 0.6% of GDP, from $22.9 billion, or 0.6% of GDP, in FY25." TOI. Excellent example of how percentages can be totally misleading. "One of the most consequential transformations of the Narendra Modi era," is that, "Over the past decade, Indian households have steadily shifted a portion of their savings from traditional assets such as bank deposits, gold and real estate into equity and mutual funds." Total market capitalization has risen from $1.14 trillion in 2013 to nearly $4.84 trillion currently." CNBC. Perhaps, people have been forced by financial repression as the interest income from bank savings and fixed deposits is clubbed with earnings and taxed at the applicable income tax rate. DBS. After the decrease in value of savings by inflation is factored in, the returns from investment in banks becomes almost zero. Can Indian markets go on rising to infinity? If not, what is the ceiling beyond which there are no returns? "India's equity market has come under severe bearish grip again," "As foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continue to dump Indian shares and the West Asia conflict escalates again, leading to higher crude oil prices, the D-Street has started to feel the heat again." TNIE. "For the last two years, the Indian stock market has been a growth ghost town," and "It is precisely because these market powerhouses are wounded that they have now become incredibly dangerous for bears, and possibly ripe for an explosive rally." msn.com. Is this a prediction based on logical market analysis or just hot air to induce people to keep investing in shares? The government taxes every purchase and sale of shares, called Securities Transaction Tax (STT), sale of mutual funds, and options and futures transactions. cleartax.in. As a result, the contribution of STT to total income tax collections has risen from 3.3% in 2021-22 to 5.4% in 2024-25. And so, "Despite implementing tax cuts in the latest Budget, the Centre estimates a robust 14.4% growth in income tax collections in 2025-26, thanks to an unexpected boost from STT revenues." Mint. How are Indian markets going to start rising again? Apparently, "As a violent tech meltdown triggers an unwinding of the global artificial intelligence trade in America's Nasdaq, South Korea and Taiwan, analysts say, India could emerge as the ultimate 'anti-AI' trade, positioning Dalal Street to become a major relative beneficiary and an oasis of peace in a fracturing financial landscape." "FIIs have aggressively abandoned India," and "This relentless exodus was directly engineered by an explosive chip rally in Taiwan and South Korea, which pushed their market capitalization above India's." TNIE. On the other hand, "Indian IT majors, TCS, Infosys and others saw their stocks decline as fears of AI-led workforce disruptions threatened the working model of this sector." The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of earnings of Indian companies has collapsed from over 20% to just 5-6%. TOI. Will a collapse of other markets divert FIIs to India? If FIIs lose money they may cut down on new investments and prefer developed economies as they switch to a risk-off mode. Indian markets could fall further as FIIs repatriate money to pay home investors. Wishing ill of others because India has no AI or chip industry is nasty. Could boomerang.       

Dead by NEET.

At the Cockroach Janta Party's (CJP) protest at Jantar Mantar, a man said, "He had come to support his girlfriend," and "had nothing to do with politics, viral hashtags or social media trends." He said he came on her behalf as she was unable to attend in person because she had been struggling with depression since the controversy with the NEET paper. msn.com. NEET stands for the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test, conducted by the National Testing Agency for admission into undergraduate medical programs. wikipedia. 2.27 million youngsters appeared for this year's exam on 3 May 2026. The exam was canceled on 12 May 2026 because the question paper had been leaked. wikipedia. 18-year old Akanksha Chaturvedi committed suicide over the canceled exam. TOI. Apparently, a couple of people at the protest were ignorant of the relevance of the term 'Chicken Neck', relating to India's borders with neighboring countries. It became a talking point when "Union Minister Kiran Rijiju shared the clip on his X account, calling for greater awareness about the county's geography and national issues." ET. 'Chicken Neck' is a narrow corridor in West Bengal, leading to India's northeastern states, bordered by Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. wikipedia. Retiring after over 50 years of medical practice I can assure Hon'ble Minister that ignorance of India's geography is of no relevance to becoming an extremely erudite and competent doctor. Leaking questions for money is. With an enormous population and limited opportunities the temptation to game the system, for those with power and money, must be impossible to resist. The most infamous was the Vyapam scam, in which questions for exams to select medical admissions and government employees, were leaked to candidates who paid. At least 40 people, including an erstwhile Governor's son, died suspiciously. Unofficially, more than 100 were eliminated. wikipedia. Perhaps even worse than corruption is the callous incompetence that puts our children's future in jeopardy. "Days after the government-run Central Board of Secondary School Education (CBSE) announced its Grade 12 - equivalent to UK's A level - results, dozens of students complained about errors in their marks allegedly linked to a newly-launched digital evaluation system," "Called On-Screen Marking (OSM), the system works by scanning physical copies of answer sheets and uploading them on an online portal for teachers to evaluate." Errors included mistakes in manual evaluation, "pages were missing, answers were marked wrongly, or the digital copies did not match the original paper answer sheets." Because of delays in re-evaluation by CBSE many students are in danger of missing scholarships to foreign universities and admissions to the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) which require at least 75% marks in CBSE Class 12 exam. TOI. Why wasn't the system evaluated thoroughly before ruining hundreds of lives? Because there is no accountability. CJP chief Abhijit Dipke demanded the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan and said that the Hindu-Muslim agenda (BJP's election winning strategy) for the last 12 years cannot create jobs. HT. So will the Hon'ble minister take responsibility? Hell, no. Indian ministers have perks which would outclass those of a US president. Sharam and Izzat be damned. Recently, the Chief Justice of India (CJI), Surya Kant labeled "people entering professions using 'fake and bogus degrees' as "cockroaches". TOI. Careful. The CEO might think it is aimed at him.  As "the CEO with the invisible degree remains secure," even if "The degree remains invisible yet apparently protective, like a talisman that wards off inquiry." Judges have repeatedly protected the secrecy. DH. If the top certificate is fake, others down the line will follow. That's why they are followers.        

The US has Musk + 14.

"Euro zone private sector activity shrank at the fastest rate in 18 months in May as waning demand for goods and services - a key gauge of economic health - dragged output lower for a second month while cost pressures hit their highest level in more than three years, a survey showed." "The S&P Global Eurozone composite PMI Output Index fell to 48.5 in May from April's 48.8." Any number below 50 indicates contraction. "The deterioration was concentrated in the bloc's two largest economies, Germany and France." Reuters. Three years ago, the President of the European Commission delivered an address in which she "spoke at length about China's distorting subsidies, unfair competition, coercive practices, growing imbalances, forced technology transfers and monopoly of critical raw materials, all of which, she said, required a brand-new approach: derisking." EU member states did nothing. ca.news. European stocks have fallen after the start of the Iran conflict. Because, while the supply shock has been negative for infrastructure and defense, "Technology stocks account for roughly 8% of the Stoxx Europe 600, compared with 42% of the S&P 500. Semiconductors in particular make only 3.5% of the European benchmark versus about 18% of the S&P 500 and the MSCI Asia Pacific." msn.com. In the United Kingdom, "Unemployment is close to a post-pandemic high, inflation is accelerating, living standards have stalled and growth is expected to slow to the weakest in three years." Because, the Labour government has increased minimum wages while increasing payroll tax, causing businesses to cut employee numbers. In the US, "inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April," with personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rising to 3.8% in April from 3.5% in March, due to higher energy prices. ET. "The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, shattering expectations, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed." "Unemployment held steady at 4.3%, while employment gains topped 100,000 for the third consecutive month," as "March's payroll gains were revised upwards by 29,000 to 214,000, while April's tally was revised higher by 64,000 to 179,000 jobs added." CNN. The US is also changing internally as, "Americans are voting with their feet, leaving high-tax blue states for lower-cost, Republican-led states and reshaping the nation's economic and political map, according to the Census Bureau data. As states battle for residents and businesses, low-tax red states are attracting jobs, investment and population growth." Fox. Creating anticipation and excitement, "In a surprise move ahead of its investor roadshow, Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to fix its IPO price at $135 per share to raise a record-setting $75 billion,"valuing the company at $1.75 trillion. "A fixed price ahead of presentations to investors and book- building is highly unusual ." "SpaceX has drawn investor demand of about $150 billion for its IPO, about double the $75 billion it is seeking to raise, said two people familiar with the matter." Demand may seem modest, "but bankers and investors said that demand is impressive for the SpaceX offering since it is the largest IPO ever." Reuters. The reason why the US is thriving while Europe in not is because, "New claims that the United States has recovered remains of four separate species of alien life are sending shockwaves throughout the UFO disclosure movement," as "Dr Hal Puthoff , a CIA funded researcher and former Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications Program advisor, announced the new revelation." Fox. No wonder, the US is leading in AI and Musk is preparing to conquer Mars. Musk is not an alien. He has 14 children with four different women. instyle.com. Proven by four women. QED.

For a few dollars more.

"In unanimous decision, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) yesterday kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the third consecutive time." "The RBI projected GDP growth for FY27 at 6.6%, down from the earlier 6.9%." Consumer price (CPI) inflation is expected to be 5.1%, 50 basis points (bps) higher than earlier estimates and core inflation is expected at 4.7%. DH. "India's economic growth accelerated to 7.7% in 2025-26 from 7.1% a year earlier," while  "The economy expanded 7.8% in the January-March quarter of FY26, compared with 8% in the previous quarter." "For the full year, inflation-adjusted (real) GDP rose to Rs 323.12 trillion," while, "In nominal terms, which include the impact of inflation, GDP is estimated to have expanded 8.9% to 346.36 trillion." ET. Nominal GDP increases in tandem with CPI inflation and government taxes are based on nominal GDP. CPI inflation came in at 3.48% in April 2026 (pib.gov.in) and "India's gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections moderated to Rs 1.94 trillion in May 2026 from a record Rs 2.42 trillion in April (ET). Compared to the year 2000, the price of petrol has risen nearly 400%, LPG (cooking gas) cylinder by nearly 600% and milk by more than 500%. India Today. Average private school fees in Delhi was Rs 25,000 in 2000, rose to Rs 65,000 in 2008 (TOI and now range from Rs 1,80,000 in budget schools (over 700%) to Rs 1.50 million in premium schools (6000%) (tutopia.com). GDP per capita was $442.75 in 2000 (macrotrends.net) and has risen to $2,813 in 2026 (over 600%) (wikipedia). If GDP per capita is growing at about the same rate as prices then Indians have not become wealthier between 2000 and 2026. The Gini coefficient, in which zero indicates perfect equality while 1 represents maximum inequality, is 0.74 for both India and the US, but "while inequality fell significantly in the US over 2019-2024, in India it actually rose over the same period." The Wire. To bring in more foreign exchange and support the rupee, "India said yesterday it would exempt foreign institutional investors and the Bank for International Settlements from capital gains tax on receipts arising from interest or sale of government securities." "Foreign investors are subject to a 12.5% long-term capital gains tax on listed shares and bonds held for more than 12 months, and a 20% withholding tax on interest earned from government bonds." "Bond markets and the rupee were little changed after the announcement, which had been expected." Reuters. Abolishing taxes on gains of foreign investors could result in a fall in revenue and a rise in fiscal deficit and increased government borrowing. That would result in a fall in bond prices and a rise in yields. That may be one reason for bonds and the rupee seeing little change. To reduce the pressure, the RBI announced a "wider access for foreign investors to government bonds, easier investment rules for overseas Indians and foreign residents, and incentives for companies and banks to raise funds from abroad." ET. While the Indian government and the RBI are looking at the Iran conflict and supplies of oil and gas the US could cause a big headache. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed "The US economy added 175K jobs in May, well above expectations of 85K. Meanwhile, April's payroll figures were revised higher to 179K from 115K, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3%." fxstreet.com. A hike in US interest rate could see a selloff in Indian bonds as investors would find US bonds more attractive. Taking inflation into account, ordinary Indians are not more prosperous in 2026 than they were in 2000, could be slightly worse off. The government and the RBI scrambling to stay afloat. The US could provide the proverbial straw.      

Don't wait for the gold option.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)...denied a Bloomberg News report that said the central bank likely sold gold reserves worth roughly $12 billion in the two weeks through May 22. The RBI said in a statement its physical stock of the precious metal remains unchanged at 880.52 tonnes." "The country's foreign exchange reserves fell to a more than one-year low of $681.4 billion in the week ended May 22, from $688.89 billion a week earlier." "The $7.5 billion decline was largely due to a $4.5 billion fall in the value of the central bank's gold holdings, week-on-week." Reuters. Since January 2025, there was a "worrying trend of slowing inflows on the capital account side, particularly the sharp deceleration in net FDI - this was making the exchange rate stabilisation harder for the RBI despite massive interventions in both spot an forward markets." "But the central bank isn't rushing through any capital account measure - it feels the economy's fundamentals are strong, the rupee is not overvalued and Fx reserves are enough to contain short term valoatility. And raising interest rate is the Monetary Policy Committee's call." FE. Economists at HSBC expect India's balance of payments deficit to widen to $65 billion in 2026-27 from an estimated $35 billion in 2025-26 due to higher oil prices and persistent foreign selling of Indian stocks. In response, "India has raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6% in May." Reuters. Also, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to work from home and use public transport to save fuel, postpone purchase of gold, refrain from foreign travel and consume less cooking oil. Reuters. "India's central bank faces one of the toughest interest rate calls in recent memory this week, as the Middle East energy shock, a slumping currency and a weak monsoon risk both crimping growth and stoking inflation." However, "Nearly 80% of 56 economists in a Reuters poll expect the central bank to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%." ET. During the tenure of the former Governor of the RBI Shaktikanta Das, from 12 December 2018 to 10 December 2024 (wikipedia), consumer price index (CPI) inflation surged above the government mandate of 4% (India Today), to well over 6% from December 2019, gradually falling to around 5% from August 2023 (rateinflation,com). CPI inflation fell to its lowest level of 1.17% in December 2025. "For much of the final two years of Das' tenure, the central bank appeared to be winning one of its toughest battles." "By the time Das left office, policymakers were once again discussing growth, liquidity and rate cuts rather than emergency inflation-fighting measures." ET. In fact, Mr Das did nothing from May 2020 to May 2022, holding the interest rate at 4%, and raising it by 40 basis points (bps) from 4% to 4.40% in an emergency meeting of the MPC, just ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Forbes. The rate of inflation appeared to be falling because of base effect and weaker consumer spending. CPI inflation increased to 3.48% in April 2026 from 2.74% in January, while wholesale prices surged by 8.3%, "fuel and power inflation has surged nearly 25% and food inflation has started edging up again. Since costly fuel will increase transport prices, CPI inflation will follow. The RBI is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 5.25% at its ongoing meeting. But, "Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said...the US central bank may need to raise interest rates soon should already-high inflation pressures continue to mount." Reuters. At the moment the US interest rate is at 3.50%-3.75%. Raising it by 25 bps to 3.75%-4% will reduce the spread with the RBI's rate to just 125 bps which may see renewed selling by foreign funds. The rupee could plunge and a weaker rupee will increase the price of imports and renew a surge in inflation. The RBI should concentrate on inflation and the rupee, since both are linked, and leave economic growth to the government. Else, it will have to sell its gold. Indians sell gold only in a dire emergency. RBI shouldn't wait that long.   

Waiting for good old days.

India's 16th Census - the eighth since independence in 1947 - will see three million officials asking 33 questions to over a billion Indians over one year. "The last census was held in 2011, with the 2021 round delayed by the pandemic and later pushed back due to administrative and electoral scheduling - the first time the decennial exercise missed its schedule." BBC. In Rajasthan, "With the ongoing census exercise throwing up data that differ from government records, particularly on issues such as open defecation and household access to electricity and cooking gas connections, enumerators say they have been asked by senior officials to revisit households and correct the data 'discrepancies'. Several enumerators, mostly government schoolteachers and anganwadi workers, had taken to social media to report the discrepancies and to flag the glaring inequality and poverty on the ground. Some even complained that residents are unwilling to share information, fearing cancellation of government benefits." The Hindu. Paint a rosy picture, or else! Rajasthan has an overwhelming BJP majority in the assembly. wikipedia. An exhibition, curated by Prof Vikas Kumar of Azim Premji University, shows how the country's vast postal system was used to build trust in people. "In the run-up to the 1951 census - the first after independence - the government used a bilingual pictorial postmark" showing "a family of three framed by the words 'Census of India' in Hindi and English." BBC. What a difference. Trust in 1951, while now people hiding facts to protect handouts and enumerators told to cook up data to polish Dear Leader's halo. "Teachers and principals in Delhi government schools have raised concerns over a clash between remedial classes scheduled during the summers break and the upcoming Census-2027 house-listing exercise, saying the overlapping duties" are "technically infeasible". TNIE. "Delhi guest teachers face termination threats for refusing census enumerations duty, citing low compensation (Rs 25,000 for two phases), lack of clarity on expenses and expiring temporary contacts. A DM (District Magistrate) recommended dismissing 142 teachers, calling it 'gross negligence'." The Print. Heil Obersturmfuhrer. The Census will continue into next year. What use are schools without teachers? "For many students in Delhi government schools, completing Class 10 is now bringing an unexpected challenge. Several students and parents in northeast and east Delhi claim that English-medium sections are either being discontinued or merged with Hindi-medium classes in Classes 11 and 12." ET. Classes 11 and 12 are pre-university, indispensable for future careers. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent advice to shift towards online classes as a strategic response to the global energy crisis reveals a significant conflict between macroeconomic needs and educational fairness." "Data indicate a backlog of over 7,22,000 vacant teaching positions at the elementary level and over 1,24,000 at the secondary level." Dailyhunt. The rest of the teachers may be on Census duty. Since children are not learning anything anyway, might as well save petrol. Brilliant. Those children, lucky enough to have supportive parents and teachers, have to go through a broken examination system. "Every year between March and August, India experiences two kinds of heat - one seasonal, the other institutional. The latter is the exam season: a prolonged cycle of tests, results, re-evaluations, paper leaks and admission deadlines that drains students and families financially, emotionally, and psychologically. Unlike a heatwave, this one is entirely man-made." DH. It wasn't like this before 2014, when the BJP captured India. Mr Modi coined the slogan "Achche Din Aane Waale Hain" (good days are about to come) before the general election in 2014. wikipedia. Who knew it would be a destruction of our future. Pre-2014 seems much better in hindsight. Real good old days.    

A consequence of too little spreads.

India's "Exports rose by 13.78% to USD 43.56 billion in April, the highest monthly outbound shipments in more than four years, driven by petroleum products amid a surge in crude oil prices, but the trade deficit widened to a three-month high of USD 28.38 billion due to an uptick in imports." ET. Which means a current account deficit (CAD) instead of a surplus. "Foreign investors (FPIs) continued to pare their exposure in Indian equities, withdrawing Rs 329.63 billion in May." "In 2026 so far, the total outflow by FPIs from the equity market has reached just under Rs 2.3 trillion, which is higher than the nearly Rs 1.7 trillion pulled out during the entire 2025." TOI. "The aggregate net investments by FPIs in local shares stood at Rs 7.3 trillion as on June 1," so that the value of India's stock market has fallen behind Taiwan and South Korea. ET. FPIs have been selling Indian government bonds as well. FPIs are "net sellers of $836 million in the general debt route and $490 million in the voluntary retention route," but "net buyers of $$48 million in the passive fully accessible route." The reason for the selloff of Indian bonds is that "India's benchmark 10-year government bond yields 7.004%, compared  with 4.435% on the US 10-year Treasury leaving a spread of about 256 basis points (bps)" Historically, it has been above 300 points, Mint. The fall in the rupee against the dollar has added to the FPI decision to sell. The reason is that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has chosen to reduce the difference between its interest rate and that of the US. The US Federal Reserve cut its Funds rate down to 0% to 0.25% on 1 March 2020 (Forbes), while the RBI cut its interest rate to 4% on 23 May 2020 (The Hindu) which gave a spread of 400 bps. The US Fed started raising rates on 17 March 2022, reaching a height of 5.25% to 5.50%, while the RBI started hiking its interest rate on 5 May 2022 (TOI), to its highest level of 6.5% in February 2023 (Bajaj). Which means that the difference with the US fell from 400 bps to just 100 bps. The Fed started reducing its Funds rate in September 2024 and has stopped at 3.50% to 3.75% in December 2025, while the RBI cut its interest rate by a cumulative 125 bps to 5.25% (BT). The difference with the US is 125 basis points. Foreign investors are clearly not impressed. "India is trying to defend the rupee and the stock market simultaneously - an expensive ambition for a country running persistent current account and lately, balance-of-payments deficits, especially when much of it forex reserves are rented capital," wrote Shankar Sharma. While China earns surpluses, "Our dollars largely come from: FPIs, foreign direct investment (FDI), Borrowings and overseas remittances." Domestic investors are supporting the stock market and helping FPIs exit at higher prices. Share prices should be allowed to fall, says Sharma. "Countries survive stock market crashes. But countries routinely go bankrupt because of currency crashes." The RBI is also helping FPIs  by constantly selling dollars to support the rupee. A stronger rupee buys more dollars for FPIs. Yesterday, "The rupee ended at 95.2650 per dollar." "Traders said that the losses would have been steeper had it not been for the RBI's dollar-selling interventions, which have continued in almost every session since the rupee hit a record low of 96.96 per dollar in mid-May." Reuters. According to Bloomberg Economics, the RBI may have sold $12 billion worth of gold to buy foreign exchange. ET. The RBI is effectively transferring our gold and forex reserves to foreign investors. In doing so, by some magic of math, the RBI made so much profit that it transferred Rs 2.87 trillion to the Central government. TIE. If the RBI makes profits from transferring dollars to foreigners, it should transfer some dollars to Indian citizens as well. Indians will become wealthier, the RBI will augment its profits and the government will get higher transfers to cover its fiscal deficit. A win-win-win, if ever there was one. Magic.