Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Squeeze tight.

"Pakistan said...it has 'credible intelligence' that India intends to launch military action soon," as Prime Minister Narendra Modi "told his military chiefs they have the freedom to decide the country's response to the Pahalgam attack." Reuters. Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines, so that "Indian carriers - including Air India, IndiGo, Akasa Air and SpiceJet - must now fly longer, and thus costlier, flights on some westbound routes." CNBC. "India is considering the closure of its airspace to Pakistani carriers, a move that would force the rerouting of planes over China or Sri Lanka to reach South East Asia destinations such as Kuala Lumpur." ET. Why still thinking when Pakistan was so quick to ban our flights? "India last week suspended the World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 after the attack in Kashmir." "Pakistan is preparing international legal action." Reuters. "India would need at least 22 dams the size of Bhakra Nangal - the largest dam on the rivers governed by the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) - to store the water that currently flows into Pakistan, as per the analysis by India Today's Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) team." Apart from being extremely expensive, building dams in the Himalayas could have catastrophic consequences. "For years, scientists have been warning us about a ticking time bomb buried deep beneath the Himalayas that could rip through northern India and have catastrophic consequences." TOI. The Himalayas are extremely bio-diverse and ecologically sensitive. Attacking Pakistan militarily may not be easy. Lieutenant General (Retd) HS Panag warned, "India does not have overwhelming technological edge in any field - missiles, drones or aeronaval power - to carry out retributory surgical strikes with impunity. Pakistan has the capability to respond in a quid pro quo manner and we should be prepared for the same." ET. "The Indian Air Force (IAF) requires the production of at least 35 to 40 fighter jets per year to replace its aging fleet, Air Chief Marshall AP Singh said." India Today. In addition, "While India armed forces are already struggling with the high crash rate and poor serviceability of their 350 obsolete single-engine Cheetah and Chetak helicopters, the military is now facing a serious setback due to the grounding of nearly 330 twin-engine 'Dhruv' advanced light helicopters (ALHs)" which are "crucial for many military tasks". ET. "India and France on Monday (28 April) signed a key deal to procure 26 naval variants of Rafale fighter jets at a cost of around Rs 630 billion for the Indian Navy." Consisting of "22 single-seat Rafale M fighters and four twin-seat trainers". HT. It will take a long time to manufacture the aircraft, test them and train Indian pilots to fly them. In February, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh said he did not have confidence in Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd's ability to "ensure timely deliveries of the Tejas MK 1A fighter jet". MC. If generals and marshals are warning perhaps we should take a breath before risking the lives of our soldiers. On 4 April, Pakistan had only $10.70 billion in foreign exchange reserves. BR. We should squeeze their trade. And not let up.        

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