Tuesday, April 08, 2025

They are more dear.

"Global markets took a hit after US President Donald Trump announced a wave of reciprocal tariffs on over 180 countries, heightening fears of a recession and slowing growth." But the rich and the government in India are rejoicing. "With oil prices cooling off and the dollar losing strength, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) finds itself in a more comfortable position to pursue interest rate cuts - both in upcoming April policy meeting and possibly for the rest of the financial year." MC. Brent crude has slumped to $60.57 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. The average closing price of crude has been $71.15 per barrel this year, down from $94.53 in 2022. Macrotrends. Immediately, "The government...hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per liter." Apparently, the retail price of petrol will remain the same but the price of cooking gas is to rise by Rs 50 per cylinder. ET. The retail price of petrol varies from a low of Rs 94.49 in Ahmedabad to a high of Rs 107.46 in Hyderabad in India (cardekho.com) while the average price of petrol in the US was $3.243 per US gallon on 7 April, which works out to about Rs 73.82 per liter (eia.gov) assuming 1 US gallon at 3.8 liters (unitconverters.net) and 1 USD at Rs 86.5 (xe.com). A reduction in the cost of transport would leave a little bit of money in the hands of ordinary people to spend, but instead, the cost of cooking gas has been increased. Why so cynical? Because, the salary of members of Parliament has been increased to Rs 124,000, constituency allowance to Rs 87,000 and office allowance to Rs 75,000 per month. TOI. MPs also get free first class travel, car and driver, rent free bungalows, free water and electricity and other handouts. DD. Dearness (inflation) Allowance for government officials has been increased to 55%, starting from 1 January 2025. TB. Which means that an official earning Rs 100,000 per month will now receive an additional Rs 55,000 to compensate for rising prices. Why should they care? "Manufacturers of consumer goods - from packaged foods and beverages to detergent and paint - are expected to benefit from the fall in crude oil price, as it would make raw materials cheaper and boost their profit margins, providing some relief amid a protracted slowdown in urban consumption." ET. They are not looking to pass on the benefits of cheaper raw materials to consumers. Why should they? Higher profits mean higher bonuses. As the RBI cuts its interest rates, banks will reduce interest on savings and fixed deposits, hitting people who rely on interest on savings for their daily expenses. Defaults, or non-performing assets (NPAs), on credit cards rose 28.42% YoY to Rs 67.42 billion in 2024, up 500% from Rs 11.08 billion in 2020. TIE. The rate of interest on outstanding balance in credit cards is 35%-40% per annum Axis Bank. This does not fall with RBI's interest rate. Hotmail founder Sabeer Bhatia said that India's GDP calculation is wrong, saying "it overstates economic output by focusing on monetary transactions instead of actual work done." ET. More money for people to spend. Production will increase. And, also GDP.  

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