Saturday, April 26, 2025

Borrowing is income.

According to a report by the World Bank, in India, "the proportion of people living on less than 2.15 US dollars a day, which is the benchmark for extreme poverty, fell sharply from 16.2% in 2011-12 to just 2.3% in 2022-23." "Through targeted welfare schemes, economic reforms and increased access to essential services, India has made substantial strides in reducing poverty levels." pib.gov.in. "This significant reduction marks the country's success in pulling 171 million people above the extreme poverty line." Rural extreme poverty rates dropped from 18.4% to 2.8%, and urban from 10.7% to 1.1%, narrowing the gap between rural and urban poverty levels from 7.7% to 1.7%, a decline of 16% annually. "Regarding employment, the World Bank noted that employment growth had outpaced the working-age population since 2021-22, with employment rates, particularly among women, rising." TOI. "India's household debt marginally increased to 23.9% of GDP in FY25 as against 23.1% of GDP in FY24 with the rise of retail loans being the key driver of credit growth after the pandemic,..US banking group Morgan Stanley said in a report." "The uptick in household debt, and the simultaneous decline in household net financial saving, has sparked concerns about over-leverage and stress in the household balance sheet." TIE. "Using RBI data, (Saurabh) Mukherjea says 5-10% of middle class households are stuck in a debt trap." "At the center of this shift is the India Stack - Jandhan, Aadhaar, Mobile," which have "made borrowing dangerously effortless." "First came defaults among microfinance borrowers. Then, unsecured personal loans began turning sour. Now credit cards NPAs (non-performing assets) are rising and issues are surfacing in two-wheeler financing." BT. "India's direct tax collections, in gross terms, have witnessed a robust growth of 15.59% year-on-year, reaching Rs 27.02 trillion in 2024-25." "In 2023-24, it was Rs 23.38 trillion." Corporate tax collections rose to Rs 12.72 trillion" and "The Non-corporate (individual) tax collections surged to Rs 13.73 trillion." ET. If 10% of middle-class households are stuck in a debt trap and yet individuals are paying higher income tax, are people borrowing to pay the government? While companies are raking in fat profits which are reflected in "the median compensation for non-promoter chief executive officers (CEOs) in India in 2025 has touched Rs 100 million, marking a 13% increase from the previous year, according to Deloitte India." ET. While reducing abject poverty levels is laudable, earning $2.15 per day is not going to extricate India from the lower middle-income level - per capita income of $1,146-4,515 per year - in the World Bank's classification of countries on July 1, 2024. Increased tax collections help to pay for "targeted welfare schemes" and that helps in winning elections. Poor people constitute the 'vote bank' (wikipedia). Create wealth for politicians.

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