Not just tariffs.

"During his second presidency, United States President Donald Trump enacted a series of steep protective tariffs affecting nearly all goods imported into the United States. Between January and April 2025, the average effective tariff rate rose from 2.5% to an estimated 27% - the highest level in over a century." wikipedia. "In early April, JP Morgan Research raised the probability of a recession occurring in 2025 to 60% - up from 40%." And "now expects the Fed to start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 - reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026." "The IMF downgraded its forecast for US growth by 0.9 percentage point to 1.8% in 2025," and "did not foresee a recession in the US, but the odds of a downturn had increased from 25% to 37%." Forecast for global growth was cut by 0.5% to 2.8% for 2025. Reuters. Although Trump took office in January, "Hiring, spending and inflation look a lot like they did under Joe Biden." "Job growth has averaged 173,000 over the past two months. The unemployment rate has averaged 4.2%, a tenth of a point higher than the prior six months. Both overall inflation and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying price pressures have averaged a tenth of a point less." "Gross domestic product (GDP), after growing 2.5% over 2024, is likely to remain flat or even contract." That could be due to weather. WSJ. "According to Fitch ratings, this would be the highest tariff wall the US has erected since 1909." Trump's "anger was singularly directed at the large trade deficit the US shares with its trade partners. In 2024, it ran up to $1.2 trillion. For years, he has considered the trade deficit as the main cause of America's decline." "In the 1950s, the share of manufacturing in US GDP was 25%. Today, it is 10%. Higher wages and production costs had moved manufacturing to low-cost economies like China first and then to countries like Thailand, Mexico and India," wrote N Madhavan. "Trump makes bold accusations...and announces punitive actions to push the other side into negotiations. On the table, he offers temporary relief but seeks maximum concessions. The best way to respond to such tactics is to counter false narratives with facts and stand firm," advised Ajay Srivastava. The problem with a muscular approach is that "US total goods trade with India were an estimated $129.2 billion in 2024." "The US goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2024, a 5.4% increase ($2.4 billion) over 2023." ustr.gov. Better to conserve our gains by being conciliatory. "The Trump team is clearly prioritizing relations with India and recognizes that India's emergence as a global power has the potential to transform the Indo-Pacific region and the world." Therefore, it would be "Better for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to signal early efforts to reduce the US trade deficit and to remind Trump of the geopolitical underpinnings of the relationship," wrote Lisa Curtis. Especially after the dastardly attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir by terrorists based in Pakistan (CNN). While Trump concentrates on trade India has to worry about its barbaric neighbors. Having the US on our side could help. It's not only about tariffs.