Now we know.

"US President Donald Trump slapped India with some of the highest tariff rates imposed on any major US trading partner," as "The Trump administration imposed a 26% tariff on imports from India, which is slightly higher than the 20% levy for the European Union, the 24% for Japan and 25% for South Korea." ET. The State Bank of India projected a reduction of 3-3.5% for India's exports to the US. "US total goods trade with India were an estimated $129.2 billion in 2024." India imported goods worth $41.8 billion while exporting goods worth $87.4 billion to the US. "The US goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2024, a 5.4% increase ($2.3 billion) over 2023." ustr.gov. "The latest Emkay report estimates that India could lose around $6 billion (0.16% of its GDP) in exports to the US if tariffs are set at 10%. If the US increases the tariff to 25%, the impact could rise significantly to $31 billion." ET. "Trump...announced China will be hit with a 34% tariff, on top of the 20% he previously imposed earlier this year, bringing the total new levies to 54%." "Trump also signed an executive order closing a trade loophole known as 'de minimis' that has allowed low value packages from China and Hong Kong to enter the US duty free." China sells more than $400 billion worth of goods to the US annually. Reuters. In April 2024-January 2025, India's total merchandise exports were worth $358.91 billion, while imports were $601.90 billion. Services exports were $323.68 billion while imports were $168.17 billion, giving a total trade deficit of $87.47 billion. pib.gov.in. Should the tariff of 54% on China be a cause for celebration? Sadly no. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman "highlighted the necessity for India to navigate the escalating global tariff conflicts 'smartly' to protect against potential dumping of goods from nations facing increased US tariffs." ET. As China looks for alternate markets for its goods, India's manufacturers, used to being protected by high tariffs, could be swamped.  In November 2024, services exports were "provisionally estimated at $35.7 billion, compared with $32.1 billion of merchandise or goods exports." This was the first time services exports were higher than goods exports. TOI. A poor country moves from agriculture to industrialization and then to services but India has skipped the industrial phase and gone straight to services. "In a globalized set up, there is nothing wrong in having a more developed services sector, but the worry is that our dependence on imports will tend to increase if we do not create the domestic capabilities needed for a manufacturing upsurge," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Trump wants India to import food grains from the US but India should resist that because the US heavily subsidises food production (BBC) and it will be disastrous for our farmers. Trump has shown his hand. Can we trump him?