Still most popular.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced Saptadhara from the Red Fort on 15 August. This concept includes seven streams of national strength that help India achieve its Viksit Bharat goal." Yoga, Ayurveda, our spiritual centers and festivals, Indian literature, music, dance and cinema, cuisine, handicraft and handlooms, democracy, scientific progress, digital systems, space program and the global diaspora "further enhance its global reputation" and create millions of jobs. TIE. That is a total of 16 streams. On 21 August, "the saffron flag-bearing men climbed Gate 4 of Jadavpur University in Kolkata and used its lotus-ringed emblem as a foothold," "The emblem, designed by Nandalal Bose, shows three flames surrounded by a blooming lotus." Bose was one of Bengal's most renowned artists. The irony was: "Even a lotus was not safe from the foot soldiers of lotus politics." The Wire. Watch goons rioting while eating butter chicken, whose origins are being fiercely debated at Delhi High Court (Reuters), should be irresistible to tourists. "Modi talked of complete manufacturing value chains, AI, quantum computing, robotics, 6G, high-speed rail, inland waterways, drones, hypersonic weapons, green manufacturing, fisheries, tourism and yoga." "That is precisely the problem. Saptadhara is a wishlist masquerading as strategy," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. Yesterday, "PM Modi was conferred Uzbekistan's highest state honor, the Order of 'Oliy Darajali Dustlik', by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev during his two-day state visit to the central Asian country." TOI. The BJP published a list of 35 international honors collected by Mr Modi. ET. While we may not understand the meanings of many of the awards, Slovakia's 'Order of the White Double Cross, First Class' is easy to comprehend. Last week, "India had just one request ahead of PM Modi and US President Donald Trump's meeting two months ago - that the press not be given an opportunity to ask them questions, said Washington's ambassador Sergio Sergio Gor." The Wire. Trump forgot and held a press conference for 45 minutes. "Everything was on the table". HT. Not easy to sit silently for 45 minutes when, just yesterday, "In the 137th episode of Mann Ki Baat (dialogue of the mind), PM Modi highlighted grassroots initiative and individuals creating change through technology, social action, entrepreneurship and community participation." TOI. Thankfully these individuals are not "dimagi Naxals (ideological Naxals)", who are embedded in the power corridors and need to be "identified and isolated" so the youth of the country can be brought together for a developed India. NDTV. Naxals are Marxist insurrectionists, named after Naxalbari in West Bengal, who waged an armed struggle against the Indian state since 1967. wikipedia.  "The Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) took to social media to slam the Karnataka BJP over a post targeting 'Dimagi Naxals',"..."warning that the post amounted to a call for 'mass genocide'." The Karnataka BJP created a meme featuring a scene from the movie KGF Chapter 2, in which it repurposed a scene to "depict the shooters as its different state units, while portraying their rivals as 'Dimagi Naxals'." CJP's Saurav Das wrote on X, "The ruling party is threatening to shoot the country's youngsters dead. Pure evil. They seem to have lost the plot." HT. Mr Modi remains the nations choice for prime minister for 48.7% of those asked in the Mood of  the Nation Survey. India Today. Still most popular for prime minister. And 35 awards. Unbeatable?      

Three years could be a long time.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) plans to buy back government securities of Rs 300 billion on 3 September, with all securities listed in the auction maturing in FY27. The aim of the buyback is likely to reduce the redemption burden on the government in the next fiscal year. Securities worth Rs 6 trillion are scheduled to mature." ET. The government sells bonds to fund its fiscal deficit, which is "the difference between what a government spends and what it collects in revenue, often leading to borrowing to cover the shortfall if spending is greater." (Investopedia). As on 28 February 2026 the RBI held Rs 21.34 trillion of government paper (including treasury bills), an increase of Rs 5.76 trillion over Rs 15.58 trillion in March 2015. "An increase of this scale has never been witnessed." "RBI's holdings of government paper have increased: this is tantamount to deficit monetization. But income on securities adds to its surplus, which is transferred to the government," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Deficit monetization is when a central bank creates new money to finance government spending instead of by selling bonds to private investors or raising taxes. "It is prohibited in many countries, because it is considered dangerous due to the risk of creating runaway inflation." wikipedia. In May, the RBI "transferred a record Rs 2.87 trillion ($30.1 billion) as dividend to the government, compared with last year's Rs 2.69 trillion." "The annual report showed interest income rose 11.81% to Rs 2.36 trillion in the financial year ended March. Interest earned on rupee bonds climbed 37.66% to Rs 1.18 trillion." The RBI also gains from selling dollars at a rate higher than the buying rate and transfers those gains to the government. The Print. "India's central bank sold about $7 billion to defend the rupee last Friday (28 August), in what was one of its largest direct interventions in months, according to people familiar with the matter," ET. So, the RBI prints money to buy government bonds, which is like transferring sacks-full of new notes to the government, and then transfers the interest from those bonds to the government as well. This increase in liquidity results in a drop in the value of the rupee, so the RBI sells dollars to support the rupee, and transfers apparent gains from the difference in sale/purchase values to the government. For us ordinary citizens, not as brilliant as RBI officials, this seems like magic. There is only a teeny weeny problem: the RBI can print rupee notes but not dollars. "India's foreign exchange reserves climbed to a record high of $729.33 billion in the week to 21 August." "In June, India unveiled a raft of measures to boost dollar inflows, including discounted hedging facilities for overseas borrowings by state-run firms and banks, and a free-of-cost hedging facility for banks to raise overseas Fx deposits." Reuters. Banks are paying much higher rates of interest on Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank (FCNR B) deposits from expatriate Indians, with HDFC Bank paying 6.25% on 5 year USD deposits, while IDFC First Bank is offering 6.75% for 5 years. The RBI is buying these dollars from banks and will repay them at the same exchange rate at the end of 5 years, thus absorbing the full cost of rupee depreciation. Would it mean more printing of rupee notes? "In the early 1950s, the government started issuing Treasury bills to the central bank for funds to bridge its deficit." This continued for four decades until, "As a part of the 1991 reforms, the government and RBI decided to stop this financing arrangements." "In 1997, the government and RBI signed an agreement that stopped this practice of deficit financing." The India Forum. Borrowing from the IMF would have been cheaper but electoral suicide. So they are borrowing at huge costs because five years will take repayment to beyond the next general election due in April 2029 (wikipedia). Till then we are back to the 1950s. There are still three years to 2029. They think they are being clever. Perhaps, too clever.     

Poor Iranians.

"President Donald Trump arrives at an awkward moment for his presidency on Friday as the US-Israel war against Iran reaches the six-month mark," "And this week his administration said it would turn its focus to increasing economic pressure - rather than military action - to try to finish off Iran." ABC News. Trump must surely have consulted with armed forces generals before declaring war against Iran and it seems that US generals, lulled by their dependence on big bombs, have little clue about reading their enemy and devising strategy accordingly. Not only are they incapable of fighting a war, they could not even withdraw from Afghanistan in an orderly fashion (wikipedia) after then President Joe Biden announced on 14 April 2021 that a drawdown of all 2,500 US troops would begin on 1 May and conclude on 11 September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the war (war.gov). Such was the chaotic incompetence that, "Approximately $7 billion of military equipment the US transferred to the Afghan government over the course of 16 years was left behind in Afghanistan after the US completed its withdrawal from the country in August." "It included aircraft, air-to ground munitions, military vehicles and other materials, according to the DoD report." CNN. In Vietnam the US lost despite the death of "as many as 2 million civilians on both sides and some 1.1 million North Vietnamese and Vietcong fighters." Britannica. On the other side, Iran's Ayatollahs and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders probably thought that the midterm elections on 3 November 2026, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate up for grabs (wikipedia) will put unbearable pressure on Trump to accept their terms for a deal. Yesterday, "Iran is preparing a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz," as "A Guards spokesperson said Iran would not allow the Strait to reopen unless Washington lifted what Tehran describes as a blockade of Iranian ports while also paying compensation and removing sanctions." Reuters. In short, total capitulation by the US, even as, "Iran condemned the United States' new economic sanctions yesterday as 'state terrorism' while its Supreme Leader said he is banning acts that could harm 'social cohesion' amid concern that more financial pain could could spark unrest at home." Reuters. Even before the new sanctions, "The rial dropped to 2.02 million to the US dollar as trading opened on currency markets. Iran's official Central Bank rate stood at around 1.5 million rial to the dollar, but the market rate is what most Iranians pay." BNN Bloomberg. We Indians may think that the Indian rupee is collapsing, as the rate of exchange has dropped from 91.07 on 2 March to 95.47 on 28 August 2026 (exchangerates.org.uk) but Rs 100 now buys 2.1 million rials. A fall in the currency of such magnitude must result in skyrocketing inflation so Rs 100 now buys "2 kg of tomatoes, around a quarter of a kilogram of chicken and less than half a liter of cooking oil." Mint. "The Iran war's redrawing of the global trade map is forcing Gulf nations to retool their investment playbook, ploughing capital into infrastructure," as "Gulf governments are looking at ways to create permanent, integrated solutions to get round the Strait of Hormuz." Reuters. Once the alternative routes are in place Iran will permanently lose its leverage over the Strait but will still be vulnerable to blockade by the Americans. It cannot use a nuclear weapon to force Gulf states to use the Strait again or against a US naval blockade. The regime is terrified of losing power because they will have to face retribution for their crimes. Will there be a famine with deaths due to starvation? Pakistan is complaining to the world about India cutting off Indus River water (Dawn) but what use are its nuclear weapons? Iranians will be dying of starvation for something they cannot use. Poor Iranians. How stupid? 

Scare at midnight.

"Austrian entrepreneur Wolfgang Bergthaler, who has tracked India for 22 years, has listed what he believes has gone worse in the country despite its 'incredible progress'. He pointed to worsening air and water quality, unhealthy diets, social media use, and increasingly transactional relationships." "Everything became a business case," he wrote. Even "health, education and friendship etc. feel transactional." "Scrolling social media: Everyone. Always. Everywhere. Non-stop." BT. Agreeing with Bergthaler, "More important than screens are sports centers. More important than PlayStation is the playground. And this will happen only when the youth embrace this approach," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His government certainly tries to help. "Between March and July, there was one blocking order every 68 seconds for online content by the government of India. This amounts to around 1,275 everyday, nearly 195,000 in just five months." The Wire. "After the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) protest mainly involving Gen-Z," Mr Modi is posting reels on Instagram even as late as midnight. Mr Modi's "average engagement increased from 1.19 million to 4.63 million per post, a rise of 289.9% - almost 3.9 times the earlier level." News 18. If the youth follow his advice to "embrace" sports and go offline, who will participate in the midnight gushing sessions? Mr Modi remains the top choice for prime minister with 48.7%, down from 55% in January, of those asked in the India Today - CVoter Mood of the Nation Survey (MOTN) in August. "When Mr Modi became prime minister in 2014, he promised an all-out war on corruption Na Khaoonga, Na Khane Doonga (won't take bribes, won't allow bribes) was the slogan.However, 43% of people polled believe corruption has increased under the Modi government in the MOTN survey." India Today. "Launching a blistering attack on PM Modi" in July, the Congress Party said that the promise was a hoax. "The opposition party alleged that under the prime minister's leadership, it has always been a case of 'khaunga, khane doonga, aur khilaunga' (will take, will allow and will give bribes)." DH. Although met with extreme violence, the CJP students' protest at Jantar Mantar in Delhi between 6 June and 25 July, against leak of questions for a selection exam, (wikipedia) has broken the perception of terror created by this government against any sort of protest. As a result, "Across India's social and political landscape, Gen Alpha students - those born between 2010 and 2024 have taken it upon themselves to improve their learning environments" as "hundreds of much younger school students have taken to the streets to highlight their problems. Bringing up issues such as no fans, no toilets, no teachers and no infrastructure, not even a proper building." HT. "A six-year-old from a slum in Patna," "Aditya dressed in a T-shirt and denim trousers and sporting a traditional tilak, joined the protest in Patna and later told journalists that Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary should resign." "The child was later taken to a police station and handed over to his mother." The police had to deny claims on social media that Aditya had been arrested." TOI. Very young children have little appreciation of danger but it is really surprising that protective Indian parents are allowing them to join in protests and, such is the reputation of the police in India, that Patna police had to deny they had arrested a 6-tear-old. Like all fascists, who rule by threats and violence, the BJP thinks people have a wrong perception of them and have reshuffled their party officials (NDTV). The problem is they must have loyalists and believers, which narrows the field to known faces. This, naturally, drew a sarcastic comment from the CJP. In a post on X, CJP chief spokesperson Saurav Das said, "Wonderful decision by the BJP on 'reaching out' to the Gen Z. Three claps to the BJP for a marvellous set of Gen Z faces." TOI. Mockery and children have no fear. So, Instagram reels at midnight. Now that's scary. Creepy.       

Restrained by bonds.

"Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, are formally independent, a system known as 'monetary dominance'." However at the Fed's annual fathering at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, "The topic of 'fiscal dominance' will be one of the key questions facing the Fed's new chair Kevin Warsh." Fiscal dominance is when the central bank prints money to finance the government's fiscal deficit, which leads to inflation, currency devaluation and a flight of foreign investors. Reuters. The questions have arisen because, "Total US debt has topped $40 trillion for the first time," as "The Treasury's latest daily cash and balances statement showed total public debt outstanding at $40.07 trillion, a total that includes Treasury securities held by the public for $32.266 trillion and intra-governmental debt holdings of $7.782 trillion." Reuters. "A sell-off in US government bonds is pushing up borrowing costs, which could squeeze households, companies, financial markets and the federal budget alike." "Treasury yields are what the government pays to borrow and higher yields raise federal interest costs." Reuters. "Debt levels in developed countries are reaching thresholds that look increasingly unsustainable," and "In addition, massive borrowing by technology companies to fund a buildout of AI infrastructure is competing with demand for government bonds." "In Europe, Germany's 10-year Bund yield touched its highest since 2011, French yields were at their highest since 2008 and Britain's 30-year borrowing costs neared peaks in May that marked the highest levels since 1998." Reuters. Japan is no exception. "For years Japan exported capital to the rest of the world." Today, "Thirty-year Japanese government bond yields are now above 4%." "Fiscal realities are increasingly influencing pricing." For India, "Domestic fundamentals remain supportive, and Indian bond yields continue to offer an attractive carry advantage relative to many developed markets." MC. "India's 10-year government bond yield is around 6.87%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield is in the 4.6-4.7% range, leaving a spread of roughly 2.1-2.3%, or 210-230 basis points." For a foreign investor, "A simplified way of looking at the trade-off is: India bond yield - US bond yield - expected rupee depreciation - hedging cost = effective return advantage. With yield differential now much smaller than it has been historically, even a moderate fall in the rupee can erode the additional return available from Indian bonds." MC. In the Union budget of 2026, The government is estimated to spend Rs 57.473 trillion in 2026-27, 7.7% higher than the revised estimate of 2025-26. Interest payments account for 26% of the total expenditure, and 40% of revenue receipts." "Fiscal deficit in 2026-27 is targeted at 4.3% of GDP." prsindia.org. The government was helped by a record payout of Rs 2.87 trillion excess reserves by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in May 2026. Kotak Neo. The RBI has also kept its policy rate steady at 5.25%, despite projecting headline inflation at 5%. Mint. All this has led to a sell-off of the rupee. And so, "The RBI has decided to shift to a more constant pattern of intervention to support the currency over the past month, thanks to the foreign deposit inflows, whereas previously it would largely step in to curb bigger swings." ET. Bonds are a form of debt. And defaulting on debt is absolute suicide. They act as a stranglehold on governments. No escape.             

Family first.

"India has attracted nearly $73 billion through the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) special forex swap facility as of 21 August, with most of the inflows coming through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR (B) deposits." And yet, "The rupee was at 95.71 against the US dollar on 8 June when the scheme was announced and stood at 95.69 on 21 August." That is because banks are handing over all the foreign exchange raised to the RBI in exchange for Indian rupees, and so the dollars are not entering the spot market. The money is being added to the foreign currency reserves. CNBCTV18. "India's foreign exchange reserves climbed to $716.9 billion, their highest level in about six months as of the week to August 14, data showed." "The reserves are within striking distance of a record high of $728.5 billion hit in February." Reuters. We need foreign exchange as, "India's merchandise trade deficit widened more than expected to a six-month high of $31.98 billion." "Imports rose to $76.22 billion against $70.84 billion in June, driven by a rise in crude oil prices and surging imports of electronics goods and gold." "Goods exports hit a record high of $44.24 billion for July,...while they were $40.41 billion in June." Reuters. The problem is the lack of investment in manufacturing. "Gross capital formation (GCF) refers to the gross additions to national wealth," from 1. gross fixed capital formation which is acquisition of fixed assets less disposals, 2. changes in the value of inventories and 3. "acquisitions less disposals of valuables." abs.gov. au. While India's GCF/GDP has grown from 15.3% in 1950-51 to 34.6% in 2024-25, the manufacturing GCF/GDP has grown from 2.4% in 1950-51 to 4.3% in 2024-25. Bank lending to large industry increased from 12.6% in 2007-08 to 18% in early 2010s, and has fallen to 8.6% in 2025-26. "Finance and professional services generated not just growth but also white-collar jobs and high tax revenue." This revenue was used for a large scale expansion of welfare programs to cover for a lack of mass employment and, recently, for direct cash transfers to win elections, wrote Roshan Kishore. "India could face a manufacturing GDP gap of up to USD 5.1 trillion by 2047 if it fails to unlock the potential of advanced manufacturing and adopt frontier technologies, according to a report by Angel One, which estimates that the country could miss out on USD 270 billion in additional manufacturing GDP by 2035 and USD 1 trillion by 2047." ET. A paper by SBI caps said that large capital projects require confidence, and so, "When pricing, input costs and end-market demand remain uncertain, companies choose to defer investment." "Government spending on transport, power, logistics and urban infrastructure is providing demand for private-sector suppliers." ET."Indian CEOs should identify their most complex business problems and create dedicated task forces to solve them using AI, rather than limiting their experimentation with the technology to smaller use cases, Anthropic MD Irina Ghose said. Indian business leaders do not like to be seen to be wrong and so are reluctant to take risks. Lack of confidence and a desire to reduce risks are leading to "A few large private banks, along with to law firms and wealth managers, are ducking an unwritten ban to handhold Indian promoter and business families to set up family offices in Singapore and other jurisdictions." "A large Singapore bank has teamed up with two large law firms and a wealth manager in advising families..." and "About Rs 15 billion is estimated to have been remitted in the past two months." ET.  If they are worried about external factors why would they shift their wealth to foreign jurisdictions? Perhaps they have lost confidence in the government and are worried about the desperate measures being adopted by the RBI. They don't dare to speak. So, quietly slink away. Unnoticed, if possible.      

Antisocial biscuits.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted at the Economic Times World Leaders Forum that his government's approach to reforms - based on trust, not suspicion, of the people - has led to transformative changes in the Indian middle class that remain a distant dream even in many developed nations." ET. That is a big relief. But, in that case why not answer questions proudly? "US Ambassador Sergio Gor has claimed that India's Ministry of External Affairs had requested 'no questions' from the media after a meeting between PM Modi and President Donald Trump." But Trump forgot and held a 45-minute press interaction. "Everything was on the table." "The MEA has not yet officially responded to the ambassador's account." HT. Should be called an 'embarrassador'. Now even 'Babes in the Wood' (wikipedia) are asking questions. "Gen Alpha students in Bhatpurwa Samuhi, a village along the Yamuna, staged a peaceful protest outside their school, raising their voices over  the long-pending construction of the school building." "Earlier, in Hamirpur, around 300 children had marched 6 km to the collectorate seeking a usable road to the school, while in Lucknow, nearly 250 girls had protested over teacher shortages and basic amenities." NDTV. In the nation's capital, "Gen Alpha students in Delhi's Sonia Vihar have taken to the streets over the condition of the Sadhe Char Pusta Road." "Several prominent schools are located along the road, with thousands of students using the stretch everyday." India Today. Since 2022, having won the election with an overwhelming majority, the BJP has been running the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD). wikipedia. The BJP won the 2025 Delhi assembly election with 48 seats out of a total of 70 seats. wikipedia. The BJP is also ruling the nation with a minority government at the center (wikipedia), with Mr Modi exercising absolute power without answering any questions. Campaigning for state elections Mr Modi asks people for a "double engine ki sarkar (government)' (ET) implying that BJP governments both in the state and at the center will lead to better services. By that logic, Delhi has a 'triple engine government' and yet children have to walk to school through filth. When in a corner, resort to invoking a mysterious agent provocateur. "On 20 August, a large group of students of a government school in Uttar Pradesh's Kannauj district boycotted classes and staged a protest against the principal accusing him of high-handedness, caste discrimination and indecent behavior." "Officials have now claimed that students were lured with biscuits...to malign the government," and the police have filed a First Information Report (FIR) against unidentified "antisocial elements" under Sections 189 (2), 49, 54 and 57. The Wire. So many sections against biscuits! "A team of Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) leaders were chased out of a village in Jaipur when they went for an inspection." They were called "urban naxals, anti-nationals and Pakistanis" (NDTV), typical BJP abuses. On 20 August, a mob of ABVP goons rioted inside Jadavpur University in Kolkata. "Students inside the campus said stones, eggs, bricks, shoes and filthy water bottles were thrown over the wall as the police simply watched." The Wire. The Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) is the student wing of the BJP. wikipedia. When Anwesha Banerjee, a female journalist, asked about a case involving Nikhil Das - ABVP's Jadavpur University unit president - who had been accused of molesting a junior student in 2014, two men from the crowd asked, "What's your name, dear? Should we meet at night?" The Wire. That's typical too. Answer allegation of molestation with a threat of rape. All three, UP, Rajasthan and now West Bengal have BJP governments. The BJP's response to any criticism is with violence and abuse. But, what do you do with children? FIR against biscuits.            

Trillions in debt.

"UK employers shed more workers in July," as "Job vacancies dropped further to 707,000 in the May to July period, the lowest since 2021." "Total US public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, and has now surged by a third in less than five years." "Japan's economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the three months through June," and so "Japan's budget requests for next year are set to hit a record that may overstate the rate of fiscal expansion." While, "China is doubling down on a targeted program that's tapping fiscal resources to drive borrowing by businesses and consumers." ET. "The Congressional Budget Office projects that...net interest payments will total $16.2 trillion over the next decade, rising from an annual cost of $1 trillion in 2026 to $2.1 trillion in 2036." Interest costs will be 3.2% of GDP this year, as a share of federal revenues interest costs was 18.5% at the end of last year, and will reach 15.7% as a percentage of  total spending by 2029. pgpf.org. For comparison, India's "Interest payments on government debt for FY 2026-27 amount to Rs 14.04 trillion, consuming approximately 25% of total expenditure. This makes interest payments the single largest expenditure head, exceeding defence spending and subsidies." "Years of fiscal deficit have accumulated government debt exceeding 55% of GDP." govtbudget.com. "The amount the US owes compared to its annual economic output - known as its debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio - is 125.8% according to the IMF." UK's ratio is 103.6%, China's is 106.9%, while Japan's is highest at 200%. BBC. "A sell-off in US government bonds is pushing up borrowing costs," and "the rise in yields on the 10-year Treasury is pushing up mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs" as "Companies typically borrow at a Treasury yield plus a credit spread that compensates investors for default and liquidity risk." It is also bad news for the world as, "A sustained rise in US yields can pull capital towards dollar assets, strengthening the dollar and tightening financial conditions abroad which makes it harder for...indebted governments and emerging-market borrowers to refinance." Reuters. Perhaps in anticipation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed banks to borrow from non-resident Indians (NRI) at higher rates of interest and promised to compensate higher repayment costs due to rupee depreciation. India's largest private bank, HDFC is paying 6.25% on 3-5 year US dollars. "The RBI said authorized dealer banks had reported $65.397 billion in FCNR(B) inflows as of 21 August. Overseas foreign currency borrowings (OFCB) contributed another $4.86 billion and external commercial borrowings (ECB) contributed $2.591 billion, for a total of $72.85 billion. Mint. All these loans will need to be paid back in foreign exchange, with interest. China is also a problem. China's augmented debt Is 135% of GDP and "Unlike US and most other countries, China is seeing debts mount rapidly in the private sector as well. Total debt amounts to nearly 350% of GDP, that is higher than US," wrote Ruchir Sharma. To meet its economic growth target, "Beijing has dropped export prices nearly 20%, producing a 40% surge in volume." Last year, China's trade surplus surged 20% to a record $1.2 trillion. "China's dumping offensive is de-industrializing rival exporters the world over," and "India has been particularly hard hit recently, and has suffered a sharper decline in its share of global manufacturing than many Asian rivals," wrote Sharma. Public debt of the US and China is rising which should mean that they have economic problems. Why would we suffer? That's how weak we are. Sad. 

Dimagi 'friends'.

"The government's proposal to offer training in artificial intelligence to 10 million people over the next year; free online coaching for competitive and government exams and a nationwide campaign to scout and train future Olympic contenders as announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day speech, outlines the outreach the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has planned to reset the narrative against the party and government." HT. Mr Modi did not clarify who will teach students, for how many hours per day and in what language. Also, Between March and July, there was one blocking order every 68 seconds, on an average, for online content by the government in India. This amounts to around 1,275 every day, nearly 19.5 million in just five months, according to a report by The Indian Express. If petty officials keep blocking the internet at their whim, what will students learn from blank screens? " Students are paying hundreds of thousands for in-person coaching for the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) exams (Vajirao & Reddy), some repeatedly, but cannot qualify. Only 6.2% of candidates clear the IAS selection exam at the first attempt.. Legacy IAS. Salaries in AI jobs are in tens of millions. A Senior Technical Project Manager earns in excess of Rs 18.3 million (Rs 1.83 crore) per year. 6figr.com. If learning AI or passing entrance exams for seats in elite colleges or for IAS training was so easy why are more than 80 million youth "caught in a difficult spot - with no job, no education and no training"? "According to a Niti Aayog report, an estimated 87 million Indians aged 15 to 29 fall into this category." TOI. Because there are no jobs. And so, "The central government is set to step up its outreach to Gen Z with the launch of the 'One Day, One University' campaign, aimed at creating a more direct and interactive engagement with young people." News 18. Since they cannot offer any job what would be the purpose of these visits? Is this an attempt to campaign for next year's assembly elections in several key states (wikipedia)? As for Olympic athletes, "At the recently concluded Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, India finished fourth with 39 medals.Nine winners were backed by Olympic Gold Quest (OGQ), a private company focused on helping Indian athletes win on the global stage. Notably, its financial spending now surpasses even the government's own spending." Mint. Will the government keep our female athletes safe from predators? Early this month, the Delhi High Court acquitted "former Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) president and ex-BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh...in the high-profile sexual harassment case filed by six women wrestlers." DH. In the same speech that Mr Modi was promising an abundance of goodies to Gen Z, he said, "We have succeeded in ending armed Naxals (Maoist militants) in the jungle and freeing the country from that crisis. However, while armed Naxals are gone, dimagi Naxals (ideological Naxlas) are looking for an opportunity." "We need to isolate these ideological Naxals and connect the country's young generation toward building a developed nation." The Print. How exactly? By shooting a 19-year-old unarmed student protester 5-6 times with a pellet gun (HT) and maiming him for life? Mr Modi, "who has long cultivated a strongman image" has suddenly gone soft on Instagram. "Modi's timeline, which until a month ago featured carefully curated posts, now also includes more 'candid' content, such as a get-ready-with-me reel and several selfie style addresses to young people, whom he calls 'friends'." BBC. The 'candid' content and selfie style are all carefully choreographed. Will Gen Z fall for Mr Modi's insincere benevolence and deception? What about the parents who have spent millions on their children's education only to see them sitting unemployed and being beaten up? The fear is that the BJP will use every ploy, including fake charges and extreme violence to stay in power. God protect our children. From fascists. 

How not to tackle a hole.

"Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said he would prefer greater clarity on the persistence and trajectory of inflation before considering any recalibration of the policy rate, while warning that a broad-based rise in food, fuel and input prices could warrant monetary tightening." ET. "When we say inflation has come down from, say, 6% to 2%, it means the rate of change of prices has come down. But prices are still going up." "There exists a school which always argues that inflation is low; even when high it is not a concern; and, as a corollary, interest rates should be lowered," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Inflation compounds every year which is what consumers feel when they shop. "This fiscal year, inflation has averaged 3.9% in the first quarter, but perception of inflation was 7.7%." And so, "Companies have often said in their investor presentations that demand has been affected by inflation; that higher food bills have left less money for discretionary consumption." In March, "India's federal government...retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2%-6%," for the next five years. Reuters. In February, the base year for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was revised from 2012 to 2024 using the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey 2023-24. The weights of various items in the CPI basket changed. Weight of food and beverages decreased from 42.617 in 2012 to 36.753 in 2024, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased from 16.888 to 17.665, while transport increased from 6.394 to 8.796. pib.gov.in. In its meeting on 5 August, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI held its interest rate at 5.25% (Reuters) while "After considering all factors, CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected to be 5.0% with Q2 (July-September) at 4.7%; Q3 at 5.9% and Q4 at 5.5%," said Malhotra. "In August, the growth estimate for this fiscal year has been upped, yes upped to 6.7%, while the inflation estimate has been lowered a tad, from 5.1% to 5%." "Apart from the fact that the MPC's estimates need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, given the heightened external risks, a repo rate of 5.25%, implies a negative real rate of interest for the next three quarters." "Part of the reason might be the MPC's apparent belief that core inflation matters more than headline. The term 'core inflation' (excluding food and fuel) was mentioned eight times in Gov. Malhotra's Statement," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "The interest question, then, is not whether RBI should have raised rates. The more revealing question is why almost nobody expected it to." "Over time a fairly settled view of the RBI has emerged. It is widely seen as an institution that prefers to wait rather than tighten policy unless inflation becomes impossible to ignore or external developments leave it little room for manoeuvre." That reputation "has been accumulating for several years," wrote Puja Mehra. Since food and beverages have the biggest weight in the CPI basket, the retail price of food depends on supply and a higher interest rate will not increase supplies, is the reason for paralysis. What is conveniently forgotten is that food, especially perishable fruits and vegetables, are transported by trucks from farms to mandis (wholesale markets) in cities which have to pay toll multiple times during the journey. "At the Shahjahanpur Plaza, for instance, the one-way toll is...Rs 665 for a bus or truck and more than Rs 1,000 for vehicles with four or more axles." Mint. The price of diesel used by trucks has also jumped in recent weeks. noewsonair.gov.in. High inflation helps the government by reducing debt (economic help) and low interest allows the government to borrow cheaply. The RBI is trying to help the government but the economy depends on what people earn and spend their money on. What do they say about holes (wikipedia)? Just obeying orders. May be.    

Sugar to prevent climate change.

In a 1991 paper, To Slow or Not to Slow, William Nordhaus "projected that a 3 degree C rise in global temperature would shave barely 0.25% off US income." "His later work went further, predicting gains for cold developed regions - lower heating bills, longer growing seasons, better farming in US, Canada, Russia and Europe - while poor tropical countries bore the losses." He was awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics in 2018, wrote Chandra Bhushan. The result is that wildfires are increasing in Europe in the last 20 years, with a record 1 million hectares burned across the European Union (EU) in 2025. "Almost half a million hectares have burned so far this year in the EU," more than in 2025. "More than half the EU countries have recorded more fires in 2026 than they do in a typical year." CNN. "By mid-August Europeans were sweating through their fifth heat wave of the season," with temperatures well above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). A severe drought for months contributed to "record-low river water levels and disrupting water and power supplies, transportation routes and agriculture." nasa.gov.in. "Someone will have to pick up the tab for the damage wrought by Europe's increasingly volatile weather, and with the bulk of those economic losses uninsured, that will be the public purse unless immediate action is taken." "Only a quarter of climate-linked catastrophe losses are insured in the EU, with coverage in some countries below 5%." Reuters. In India, "A single day of extreme heat causes about 3,400 excess deaths across India, while a five-day heat wave causes nearly 30,000, a study has estimated." The five states with the highest burden of deaths were "Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat which together accounted for 66% of the country's excess deaths while contributing only 25% of the country's GDP." NDTV. One reason heat feels so intolerable in Europe compared to India is that summer days are much longer in northern latitudes, recent heatwaves have not been accompanied by any wind and "The sun feels sharper in Europe due to the clear skies, while pollution in India scatters and dissipates heat differently," said Siddharth Singh. "Pollutants not only severely impact public health, but also the earth's climate and ecosystems globally." "Reducing ambient and household air pollution can also reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived climate pollutants, such as black carbon particles and methane, therefore contributing to the near- and long-term mitigation of climate change." And, "the use of fossil fuels for power generation, industry and polluting transport are all major sources of both particulate matter and CO2." WHO. "India has long been portrayed as one of the world's great coal growth markets," as "Coal still accounts for roughly 70% of electricity generation and remains the backbone of the grid." But, "clean energy sources now account for 331.7 Gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, compared with 302.0 GW for fossil fuels." However, "generation statistics describe today's electricity system, while capacity figures provide a window into tomorrow's." Reuters. "Artificial intelligence (AI) models are becoming cheaper to run," but "The Ministry of power projects an additional 26.3 GW electricity demand from data centers by2031-32." ET. Electricity generation is vital so the government blames automobiles for pollution. The solution is petrol adulterated with 20% ethanol, which is produced from maize, rice and sugarcane. And so, "Govt yesterday allowed the import of 100,000 tonnes of raw sugar, the first such move in a decade, as it stared at a possible decline of at least 20% in the opening stock of the sweetener." TOI. That is naturally raising the retail price of sugar. With the festival season about to start people will not be pleased with high prices of sweets. Import 244 million tons of coal in 2024-25 (coalcotroller.gov.in), try to mitigate by producing ethanol and end up importing sugar. Ethanol, or ethyl alcohol, makes people drunk. And that leads to confusion. Cheers.         

Cash is colorless.

"The US banknote, the most ubiquitous currency in the world used in everything from drug deals to legally accepted tender in multiple countries, falls short of the rupee when it comes to circulation numbers." There are 176 billion banknotes in India compared to 56 billion US dollar bills and 30 billion euro banknotes. "Cash has continued to grow despite the expansion of digital payments." TOI. "India's currency in circulation (CiC) climbed to record-high levels in late 2025 and early 2026. So far in 2025-26, CiC has increased by Rs 2.76 trillion, 3.1 times the rise seen in the same period last year. " At the same time the value of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions increased to a record Rs 28 trillion, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh & and Tapas Parida. The reasons could be because the tax department tracked UPI transactions and sent GST notices to street-side vendors and small stores, low interest rates on bank deposits and households recycling precious metals because of the high prices. "The apparent paradox of of the usage of of both rising is a warning that we are settling into a hybrid equilibrium: digital for convenience, cash for avoidance and for those excluded from UPI." One reason for the rise in cash is "the fear of UPI as a trap for small traders." Then, there has been an "explosive growth of unconditional cash transfers , estimated at 2% of GDP across 15 states." That increased cash use in rural and informal India. Thirdly, there is "the rising use of money power in elections," wrote Ajit Ranade. And, since politicians need cash to win, the use of cash will continue to balloon. India has introduced strict rules to restrict cash
transactions. This is expected to curb black money, which is income hidden from authorities to avoid tax, improve tax compliance, reduce counterfeit currency and improve financial inclusion. Bajaj Finserve. On 8 November 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the withdrawal of all Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes from circulation with four hours notice. Known as demonetisation. He said it would "curtail the shadow economy, increase cashless transactions and reduce the use of illicit and counterfeit cash." A total of Rs 15.44 trillion became worthless. The hope was that black money would be destroyed. In reality, Rs 15.28 trillion, or 99% of the banned notes were deposited in banks. A total of only 573,891 counterfeit notes were detected out of 24.02 billion notes withdrawn, which was close to 0%. BBC. However , it caused enormous hardship as people had to queue up for hours to exchange old notes for new, and daily wage laborers, who earn in cash, became unemployed. In the US in 2024, "approximately 20 million households rely on cash as their primary payment method, particularly among those who are unbanked or underbanked and individuals earning under $25,000 annually." "Pro-cash legislation has been gaining momentum across the US, with several states and cities implementing or considering laws to protect the use of cash as a form of payment." cusomag.com. But black money is not all black. "Back in the last years of the noughties India's economy was looking just as frothy as the rest of the world.. It had been growing at an astounding 9% a year for three years to 2008.." "The difference in India is that all this 'irrational exuberance' did not end in disaster." Prof Kaushik Basu says that "pervasive use of 'black money' - illegal cash hidden from tax authorities - created a bulwark against a crisis in the banking sector." BBC. Finally, one can lose only that much cash as they are carrying, but with rising rates of cyber crime and increasing sophistication of cyber criminals (pib.gov.in) one can lose all the money in one's account. Governments earn from seigniorage, which is the face value of currency notes compared to the cost of producing it. Investopedia. This year the RBI transferred Rs 2.87 trillion as dividend to the government. Reuters. Do they want to cut that down? Black or white, cash helps the economy. It has no color.  

Free coaching to climb to top 1%.

"Multiple BJP leaders said the party's internal surveys and feedback from the cadre underlined that the recent bypoll upsets and the growing criticism of the government on social media platforms are an immediate fallout of the 37-day student protests led by the Cockroach Janta Party." "To ensure the government is not blindsided,...particularly as preparations for polls in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa have begun, the party has begun an aggressive outreach targeting young adults." HT. The BJP seems to think that the students were misled and persuasion and brainwashing will set them right. Students were angry because, "The NEET-UG 2026 exam was cancelled on May 3 after the paper leak came to light." ET. "The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test  (Undergraduate) or NEET (UG)...is an Indian nationwide entrance examination conducted by the National Testing Agency (NTA) for admission in undergraduate medical programs." wikipedia. Students appearing for this exam are some of the best in their schools and have been preparing for years. Unlike semi-literate 'Bhakts' (devotees) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who believe anything they are told on social media, created by the BJP's IT cell, led by Amit Malviya and a team of 150 well-paid employees. They believe that the 'Golden Age' of India was in some mythical past and the Nehru family is responsible for all ills. DH. Government school student Yashvardhan Kumar Mishra appeared for the Repeat NEET (UG) exam in June 2026 where he scored 92 percentile and failed to secure a seat in a government college. Only the top 1%-1.5%, who scored 99 percentile, succeeded. Mishra's family cannot afford a private medical college, wrote Sayantan Bera. "For decades there seemed to be a correlation between higher education and lucrative jobs. But in reality it was inequality that helped people secure such jobs." Employers cannot absorb the number of people who can afford to qualify. Indian parents "can bring up their children in filthy air, let them dangle from unsafe trains and travel on dangerous roads, but they will not tolerate that terrifying thing called an uncertain future. Of such a future, the BJP may now be a mascot," wrote Manu Joseph. And so, Mr Modi "has announced free online coaching for students belonging to poor and middle class families." And 10 million youth "will be given AI skilling in the next one year." newsonair.gov.in. How will they stop  students of rich parents from accessing the site? Another irritation for the BJP is the victory of Prashant Kishor of the Jan Suraj Party in a by-election in Bankipur, Bihar which the BJP has held since 1995. "Its former legislator, Nitin Nabin, inherited the constituency from his father and won it five times before resigning earlier this year" BBC. Mr Nabin is now BJP National President and a member of the Rajya Sabha. wikipedia. HIs seat must have been considered a fortress. Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav alleged that the BJP deliberately lost recent by-elections. "The BJP has lost these by-elections to deceive the people." "Now they will say that opposition parties will no longer raise questions about EVMs." TOI.  An EVM is an Electronic Voting Machine produced by Bharat Electronics Ltd, a public sector company. Many believe the EVMs have been hacked and reprogrammed to transfer votes to the BJP. Since they do not have one-time programmable chips (OTP) they can be erased and reprogrammed. The India Forum. Towards the end of June, "Around 3,000 EVMs were destroyed in the Alipore Administrative Building fire, a senior EV official said." TOI. This was about one month before the by-elections on 30 July (newsonair.gove.in). Not enough time to manufacture and hack into so many machines? Although there is plenty of time till February 2027 when assembly elections to Goa, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh are to be held (wikipedia) the BJP does not want to leave anything to chance. Hence, free coaching and brainwashing. Will wholesale coaching get anyone into the top 1%?      Will it create jobs? The minister was not pleased with creating delivery boys and girls. DH. What about coached and AI skilled delivery boys and girls? Make parents proud.   

They have nothing to lose.

 "Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to 'fully offensive' due to the deadlock in efforts to agree a permanent end to its war with the United States, a senior Iranian official told Reuters." US President Donald Trump warned Americans "to prepare for continued high fuel prices as the result of the war, while also saying that 'after we finish defeating Iran pretty soon...I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States." NDTV. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Political Deputy Brigadier General Yadollah Javani "told Iranian state media that Iran's actions so far had been defensive but could assume an offensive character in the future." "He added that the armed forces would adopt transformative approaches." ET. Iran has carried out extensive attacks with missiles, drones and fighter jets on Gulf Arab states. wikipedia. "Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the Kingdom during the Middle East war, two Western officials briefed on the matter and two Iranian officials said." "The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also carried out military strikes on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported." Reuters. "Iran has accused Qatar of holding three Iranian military pilots who went missing in March after their aircraft were shot down, a claim strongly rejected by Doha." "Iranian state media also reported that a fourth pilot was killed during the same mission targeting a military base in Qatar." NDTV. "Iran yesterday said it has reached an agreement with Oman on a plan to manage the transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the two sides are now working to finalize details for a joint statement," Iranian Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said." newsonair.gov.in. Is Iran offering Oman a share in its efforts to extort a tariff from every tanker that passes through the Strait, thereby dividing the Gulf Arabs and undermining a US deal with Tehran? Trump "has threatened to bomb Oman - a US ally - if it 'gets in the way' of his administration's own talks with Iran." "An IRGC spokesman denied Trump's claim." BBC. "The number one goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a nuclear weapon," said Trump. "Two drones targeted the office of the Kurdistan Regional Government's prime minister and the home of the region's intelligence chief in northern Iraq...but there were no reports of any casualties, the KRG security agency said. The attack was launched from Iranian territory, it said." Reuters. Meanwhile, "Yemen's Mocha port has suspended commercial and maritime operations after being hit by more than 25 missiles in Houthi attacks over recent days, the port's director has said." "Mocha is a Red Sea port near the Bab el-Mandab strait, a strategic chokepoint connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and a key route for international shipping." Reuters. Iran's economy is near collapse, with scarcity of food and runaway inflation as the US has blockaded Iranian ports, stopping its oil exports. People are barely able to afford food. referl.org. Iran has gone into survival mode with, "Tehran rationing scarce goods, limiting access to foreign currency, slashing investment and shifting more of the burden onto households while preserving strategic imports and the essential machinery of the state, analysts said." WSJ. After an estimated 36,500 unarmed protesters were murdered by the regime in January (Iran International) it is obvious the regime will sacrifice any number of citizens to ensure its survival. The regime may be trying to set the whole Middle East on fire as a kind of scorched earth policy (Britannica). This is an ideal time to supply handguns and ammunition to protesters. People are most dangerous when they know they are going to die of hunger anyway. Win the war. Minimize suffering. Of Iranians.

Why are they special?

One week ago, "Students at the National Academy of Legal Studies and Research (NALSAR) University of Law, Hyderabad, have opposed having Chief Justice of India Surya Kant as the university's convocation Chief guest." Although the date of convocation or the chief guest have not been confirmed "it has been a tradition for the university to have the CJI deliver the convocation address." This is because the CJI compared "unemployed youth and individuals without professional standing to 'cockroaches' and 'parasites'." DH. Taking exception to that, the Bar Council of India (BCI) issued a notice saying "those who organised opposition to the invitation to CJI Surya Kant for the institute's convocation would not be enrolled as advocates."TOI. Within hours the BCI was forced to withdraw its own order against Nalsar students saying that it has been reported that "a handful of teachers and outsiders were instrumental in instigating students," and that "no student shall be made to suffer without any fault on his part." Law Street. "The Supreme Court said students had a right to protest peacefully and stayed any coercive action against NALSAR students or faculty." "If the students are protesting peacefully who is BCI to take action? ...It is a dialogue between students and me. No one has the right to step in," the CJI said. TOI. So magnanimous. Expressing solidarity, "Students and alumni of the National Law School of India University (NLSUI) have expressed strong disapproval of BCI chairperson Manan Kumar Mishra," and "warned that such actions could have chilling effect on free speech across universities by 'sending them a clear signal that any act of dissent will be met with severe personal and professional consequences'." TOI. While being so courteous and tolerant of free speech for law students, the same Supreme Court "said police forces can be permitted to use pellet guns in exceptional circumstances," during the "Cockroach Janta Party (CJP)-led protest at Jantar Mantar over the alleged NEET paper leak, during which several demonstrators sustained pellet injuries." ET. Pellets are designed to spread out indiscriminately and blind and maim permanently. Pellet guns were used extensively in Kashmir in 2016 and have left victims permanently incapacitated. "My bullet injury healed over time. But pellet injuries never heal. Permanently lodged in my body, they have left me unfit for work, unable to be in the sunlight for long or play any sports, walk or even rest," said Ashraf who had been shot with a bullet as well as pellets in Kashmir. The Wire. And the Supreme Court is happy for students protesting against leak of NEET (UG) questions to be maimed for life. "The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (Undergraduate) of NEET (UG)...is an Indian nationwide entrance examination conducted by the National Testing Agency (NTA) for admission in undergraduate medical programs." wikipedia. So, law students have the right to free speech in rejecting the CJI, but students aspiring to be doctors, protesting against their careers being destroyed by cheats, are to be maimed for life by pellet guns. Even as, "More than 10,000 cases are pending in the Supreme Court for over 10 years. In the 25 high courts across the country, over 80,000 cases are pending for over three decades." TOI. Since lawyers charge fees per appearance in court (Karl Rock), they prolong cases indefinitely, assisted by tolerant judges. And yet, the Supreme Court has ruled that lawyers cannot be held liable for poor service under the Consumer Protection Act, despite charging scandalous fees, while doctors are liable. DH. Equality before the law? (Indian Kanoon). Right to protest? Only for lawyers.       

 

Free is expensive.

"India's central bank will close a discounted forex swap facility for banks to hedge overseas deposits raised from non-resident Indians (NRI) a month earlier than planned," as "The RBI said it received $52.3 billion via FCNR deposits raised by banks." The scheme will now close on 31 August instead of on 30 September. Reuters. Higher foreign exchange reserves are necessary as, "India's goods exports in July, driven by higher electronics exports and engineering items, jumped nearly 20% to $44.24 billion but higher input costs due to West Asia crisis also drove imports 17.51% higher to $76.22 billion, pushing the goods trade deficit to a six-month high of $32 billion, data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry showed." TIE. From April to July, FY 2026-27, total Merchandise exports were $173.78 billion and imports were $292.38 billion, while Services exports were $142.64 billion and imports were $73.47 billion, resulting in a total trade deficit of $49.43 billion. pib.gov.in. India's electronics export is booming. "In July, India exported $5.92 billion of electronics goods, up 57.4% from a year earlier, while imports surged 46.03% to $14.37 billion. For every $100 of electronics exported, it imported about $243." "China remained India's largest import source, with imports rising 34.4% in July to $14.67 billion." Exports to China were a tiny $2.20 billion. MC. India's "farmers use more urea - a nitrogen-heavy crop nutrient - than the US and Brazil combined, buoyed by government support which keeps prices well below market rates." As supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have stopped, India "has faced lofty costs for the natural gas imports...that serve as a crucial feedstock for domestic fertilizer production. The country's fertilizer subsidy bill is likely to exceed Rs 3 trillion ($31 billion) in the current fiscal year, well above the budgeted Rs 1.71 trillion." "Farmers still pay Rs 266.5 (2.80) for a 45-kilogram bag of urea, less than a tenth of the price paid in an April tender to procure it." ET. "Studies show that plants absorb only 30-40% of applied fertilizers such as urea and DAP (Diammonium Phosphate), leaving 60-65% of nutrients unused." "This is leading to groundwater contamination, air pollution and inefficient use of subsidized farm inputs, according to manufacturers and experts." Mint. "The total outstanding agricultural loans of banks neared Rs 31.35 trillion as on 31 December 2025." "Over the past decade, it reached nearly Rs 28.67 trillion in 2024-25 from Rs 8.45 trillion in 2014-15." Public sector banks (PSBs) account for over 70% of these loans. The Kisan (farmer) Credit Card Scheme (KCC) had 77.2 million operational accounts with loans outstanding of Rs 10.20 trillion, as on 31 March 2025. HT. It is unlikely that farmers, already poor, will be able to repay any of these loans and so the whole amount becomes a subsidy. Meanwhile, "The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence has flagged poor demand, high production costs and recurring quality issues at the country's small-arms factories." High overheads "resulted in cumulative losses of Rs 3.66 billion across three factories on 12 selected small arms between 2015-16 and 2019-20." "Even after corporatisation," Advance Weapons and Equipment India Ltd (AWEIL) "recorded losses of Rs 2.34 billion between FY 2023-24 and FY 2025-26." India Today. Why not shut them down? Probably because a large number of highly-paid poor-quality workers will lose their jobs and that might cost votes. Speaking on infrastructure, Chief Economic Advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran said, "Free is the most expensive word in public policy." Waste of trillions of rupees is being used as subsidy. Then borrowing to fill up the hole. This is not voodoo economics. It's worse.     

Vande Mataram: the song of Independence.

On Our 80th Independence Day today (HT), "A Pew Research Center Survey conducted across 36 countries between February and May 2026 reveals an international community divided down the middle: a global median of 45% of respondents hold a favorable view of India, while 41% express an unfavorable opinion." Sri Lanka has the most favorable view of India with 79%, followed in second place by the UK and Kenya with 71%. Pakistan has the largest unfavorable view with 91%, followed by Turkey, another Islamist dictatorship, with 72% negative. Surprisingly, Brazil and South Africa, both BRICS nations, are negative.  TOI. Alarmingly, "Attacks on Indians living abroad have witnessed a nearly sevenfold increase in the past five years," according to the Ministry of External Affairs. There were 15 attacks in 2021, which jumped to 104 in 2025. The US reported the highest number of violence against Indians with 33, "followed by 32 in the UAE, 31 in the UK, 30 in Canada, 24 in Ireland, 23 in Russia and 19 in Germany." NDTV. "In an unprecedented acceleration of immigration enforcement, Canada has deported 3,323 Indian nationals during the first six months of 2026." "Families who invested substantial resources - often liquidating ancestral land or securing high-interest loans - to send students to Canadian colleges now face sudden deportations and severe financial distress." News18. "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded a three-day visit to Australia from 8-10 July," during which, "The finalisation of export arrangements to supply Australian uranium for India's nuclear power plants signifies that the relationship has reached new depths." East Asia Forum. On 8 July 2026, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese "can and should take a different approach when Modi returns to Australia this week," as "in the three years since his last visit, the Modi government has weakened India's democratic institutions and intimidated and harassed critics...Violence against religious minorities has increased and BJP leaders routinely use hate speech to target Muslims and Christians, while government curbs criticism online." ABC. "An influential students' organisation in Nagaland has asked educational institutions not to send students to participate in Independence Day celebrations this weekend, during which the complete version of the national song Vande Mataram will be sung. HT. Vande (praise, celebrate, venerate) Mataram (mother) was a published in 1882 as a poem in Sanskrit, written in the Bengali script, by Bankim Chandra Chatterjee in his novel Anandamath (The Abbey of Bliss) and became the rallying cry in the Indian Independence Movement. "Indeed, the song and the raising of 'Vande Mataram' as a slogan was outlawed by British authorities." Britannica. A row erupted when Vande Mataram was played before the Tamil anthem and the national anthem "as per directions from the Governor's office" during the oath-taking ceremony of newly elected Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, C Joseph Vijay. India Today. Following that, "A resolution has been unanimously passed by the Tamil Nadu Assembly, mandating that the state song 'Tamil Thai Vazthu' be sung first at the beginning of government events." "Both DMK and AIADMK supported the resolution." NDTV. A song which united and electrified the nation before Independence is now dividing it. "A US lawmaker has raised concern over New Delhi's proposed amendments to Indian laws governing foreign donations received by NGOs, trusts, educational institutions and religious organizations, threatening that the changes could affect bilateral relations." NDTV. The Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment (FCRA) Bill 2026 says that a Designated Authority will take over assets and foreign contribution of an organization that ceases to have an FCRA certificate. PRSIndia. And "the Catholic Church and Christian NGOs and activists have expressed serious concern over the Bill." TOI. Attacked outside, divided inside. Independent yes, but how secure is Mother India? Vande Mataram.

Staying the same.

"India's retail inflation accelerated in July, led by higher food prices," as, "The consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.45% from a year earlier." "The central bank left its benchmark policy rate unchanged last week, awaiting clearer evidence on whether inflationary pressures had become broad-based in Asia's third-largest economy, making India an outlier among regional peers." Reuters. "Five months after the Iran war raised fears of an inflation spike and an economic downturn, Indian officials are sounding more confident," as CPI inflation has stayed within RBI's tolerance band of 2%-6%, "Consumer demand has also held up, with vehicle sales at record level, credit growth climbing to a two-year high and GST receipts rising at at a double-digit pace." As the festival season approaches, "businesses are building inventories, ramping up production and adding temporary workers in anticipation of a pickup in demand." ET. However, "Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly turning a shipping problem into a wider cost challenge," as "the increase in landed costs, which include item price, shipping fees, customs, taxes and charges for insurance and risk, can vary from 35 to 50% on some trade lanes." "Jitendra Srivastava, CEO of Triton Logistics & Maritime, says freight rates to the Gulf on some routes have climbed to $3,400-$4,000 from $300-$400 before the latest disruption." ET. "On July 29, US Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50% -3.75%." Under new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, "Policy statements have shrunk from 341 words to 130. Forward guidance is gone." So the markets "fall back on behavior, and a debutant chair has none. So, they forecast the man." With the RBI, "What investors have absorbed is not a condition but a blunter summary: this lot don't raise rates.And the more firmly markets assume no rise is coming, the more damage an eventual rise does. Itself a reason to postpone again," wrote Krishnan Ranganathan. Meanwhile, "Credit rating agency Fitch...affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-', citing robust growth balanced against still-weak fiscal metrics that it reckons could face pressure from rising concerns over youth unemployment." "Fitch has rated India at 'BBB-' since 2006, while Moody's has retained its 'Baa3' since 2020. S&P Global Ratings, meanwhile, upgraded India by a notch to 'BBB' last year." Reuters. Such low ratings are considered unfair and cause considerable resentment in India. "Credit rating agencies need to reform their sovereign process to correctly reflect the default risk of developing economies, saving billions in funding costs, the government's chief economic advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran said." "His comments coincide with India seeking an upgrade to its sovereign credit rating, currently at the lowest investment grade." Mint. Rating agencies "care far more about how much a government owes than what it plans to do," wrote Prof Prachi Mishra. "It's not just about running a primary surplus (revenues minus non-interest spending). Since India's growth outpaces its borrowing costs, a primary surplus would bring the debt ratio down automatically." "Country effects matter more. They likely reflect the strength of institutions and transparency, not the numbers themselves." All our institutions have been corrupted. "India's main financial crime fighting agency has investigated well over a hundred opposition politicians in the past decade," (Reuters) while the BJP has been labeled the "washing machine" party for removing allegations of crime from anyone who joins it (The Print). "India's Election Commission (ECI), one of the most trusted public institutions in the world's largest democracy," "has fielded a string of allegations from the opposition, ranging from voter fraud and manipulation to inconsistencies in electoral rolls. It has denied all of these." BBC. The markets know the RBI will not raise rates to help the government borrow at lower rates. If Indians don't trust our institutions, why would the agencies? We are not in charge of the fruits of our action and must not be attached to inaction, said Lord Krishna in the Bhagawad Gita. The greed for power and plunder. Insatiable.