We are safe.

"The World Bank...revised India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-26 down to 6.3%, a 0.4 percentage point cut from its previous estimate of 6.7%." "The International Monetary Fund (IMF)...cut its economic growth forecast for India" to "6.2% from the 6.5% it has forecast in January for the fiscal year that started on April 1." Reuters. Even so, "India's economy has the strength to withstand headwinds triggered by the global tariff war due to a strong macroeconomic framework, moderating inflation and robust domestic engines of growth, an RBI report said." TOI. On 3 April, US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs of 26% on Indian goods. TOI. On 23 April, he announced a pause for 90 days while maintaining the 10% base tariff on all goods coming into the US, but the tariff on China was hiked to 125% (Mint). This was later increased to 145% "As global businesses look to further diversify their supply chains away from China, India has the chance to strategically position itself as a viable alternative, capitalizing on this shift to boost exports, attract investments and enhance its manufacturing capabilities." TOI. However, "To benefit from tariffs, exporters must prove their goods are genuinely made in India - something that's not always straight- forward." "This is where US non-preferential Rules of Origin (RoO) matter." Goods may originate wholly in a country, as in agricultural produce, or must undergo substantial transformation in the exporting country, if assembled from parts from different sources. So, "Indian exporters must closely review their production processes. There must be real manufacturing or transformation of inputs, like making key parts, programming or chemical changes." Made in India must be backed by strong documentation, wrote Ajay Srivastava. "Indian policy planners, over the decades, have been much castigated for their inability to turn the country into an exporting success story like the countries of Southeast Asia. In recent years, criticism has been leveled at the Indian government for not taking advantage of the China-plus strategy to the extent that Vietnam has. Ironically, at a time of global trade shifts, it is precisely these policy failures that have meant that India stands to be relatively more insulated from the trade disruption." Mint. Perhaps, only India celebrates its failures. But, why? Because, "Only the richest now pay income tax, constituting only 4% of the population." "Most voters are unconcerned with the misuse of tax money since they do not pay income tax." And so, "Most voters want to expand the freebie base, not the tax base," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. We are immune to Trump tariffs because we have little manufacturing and few goods exports. But a massive 813.5 million poor people needing free food grains. pib.gov.in. We are safe. Hooray.