Monday, April 07, 2025

Bo waits for Xi.

"In 1947, the US led 23 nations into signing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)." "On 2 April, in a speech that lasted 48 minutes, US President Donald Trump effectively shredded this multilateral trading system and signaled a fundamental shift in US trade policy," wrote N Madhavan. Tariffs will only increase prices and will not create jobs. That is the most polite criticism of Trump. Instead of 'Liberation Day' it would be better to call it 'Recession Day' or 'Economic Stupidity Day', wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Trump "seeks to destroy the global economic order created by the US after World War 2," and "more than one billion people were lifted out of poverty in India and China alone." We do not recall Mr Aiyar using such language when customs duty started going up in the 2018 Budget to help Mr Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' policy. Mint, only to be extended to 75 imported items in the Budget 2019. India Today. Trump's duty is to the US and not to make China and India richer. At the Bretton Woods Conference the US dollar was fixed to gold at a rate of $35 to one ounce of gold. mises.org. In 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the gold standard, the so-called 'Nixon Shock', and imposed a 10% surcharge on import tariffs. (wikipedia). That has been blamed for the stagflation of the 1970s. "India may still meet its 6.3%-6.8% target growth projection for the 2025/26 fiscal year...if oil prices stay below $70 a barrel, government officials said." Reuters. "No other country comes close to matching China's annual sales of more than $400 billion to the United States each year." In 2024, China racked up a trade surplus of over $295 billion with the US. census.gov. "Kaiyuan Securities expects the new tariffs could slash Chinese exports to the US by 30%, cut overall exports by more than 4.5% and drag economic growth by 1.3 percentage points." Reuters. In retaliation, "China said...it will impose reciprocal 34% tariffs on all imports from the US from April 10." CNN. And in reply, "Donald Trump has announced an additional 50% tariff on China less than 48 hours after Beijing announced tit-for-tat 34% tariff on the US." "It now takes US' tariff on all Chinese goods to an all-time high of 84%. NDTV. China called it "a mistake on top of a mistake" and "the American side's blackmailing nature." And said, "If the US insists on having its way, China will fight to the end." Reuters. If China thinks that it can compensate by increasing exports to the European Union it could be mistaken because in 2022 the EU imported $657.32 billion from China (TE). Clearly, China has been used to gaming the system and resents Trump for not accepting it. Still, it has not called him a"running dog" (wikipedia) or branded the US "paper tiger" and  "eunuchs" as it did in 2016 (NDTV). Is it because Xi Jinping is seriously worried? Trump can only lose an election but Xi Jinping could be toppled if the economy tanks. He must know what happened to Liu Shaoqi who was also president of China (wikipedia) and Bo Xilai (wikipedia) and many others will be salivating at the prospect of meeting Xi. A 'Trump Shock' to China. Pleasurable.       

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