What is the point?

"Smartphones have become an extended part of us." So, "Indians spend 5 hours a day on their phones, with 69% spent on social media, films, entertainment, music and gaming. A 2025 AIIMS study reveals that children under 5 have an average screen time of 2.2 hours, twice the WHO-recommended limits." "A 2021 study by Wacks and Weinstein associates excessive smartphone usage with difficulties in cognitive-emotion regulation, impulsivity, impaired cognitive function, addiction to social networking, shyness and low self esteem," wrote V Anatha Nageswaran & Shruti Singh. "In June, Uttar Pradesh decided to merge some government schools in the state." "The Unified District Information System (UDISE) data - it is the source of all school education statistics of the education ministry - also shows that school enrollment is falling in most states. 18 of 21 big states recorded a decline in school enrollment between 2018-19 and 2023-24," wrote Abhishek Jha. According to the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024, "During the pandemic years, there was a big jump in government school enrollment, with the proportion of 6-14-year-old children enrolled in government schools rising from 65.6% in 2018 to 72.9% in 2022. This number is back to 66.8% in 2024." Vajiram & Ravi. Enrollment numbers should be falling because, "Highlighting that Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for the country has further declined to reach 1.9 in 2023,..the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical report in 2023 shows TFR for rural India for the first time touched 2.1 - the replacement rate, where one generation replaces itself, leading to population stability." TOI. "Since 2014-15, India has seen a decline of 12.1 million students at the primary level, amounting to a drop of 9.3%. At the middle level, enrollment has fallen by 3.6 million, and at the elementary level, the reduction totals a staggering 15.7 million students," wrote Renuka Chowdhury of the Congress. It is not about absolute numbers, because falling enrollment may be due to falling birth rates, but about the learning levels of children who do attend schools. "The ASER reports show that students in class 5 cannot read class 2 text or do simple mathematical sums." And, in 2018, India ranked 72 out of 74 countries which took the Programme for International School Assessment (PISA) test. However, "two Indian schools have been adjudged 'best school in the world' by T4 Education," wrote SA Aiyar. Delhi University students prefer to learn from YouTube rather than from books, wrote Prof Shobhit Mahajan. "On YouTube, you can find videos, which if not in vernacular, are typically delivered bilingually and in a non-intimidating manner. The students feel comfortable with the format of short videos, which they think, gives them the essence of the topic." "India's gross enrollment ratio (GER) in higher education is 28.3%." The government wants to increase the GER to 50% "to enhance the quality of India's human capital and prepare the youth for the jobs of tomorrow." Unfortunately, "According to the India Employment Report 2024, the youth make up 83% of the total unemployed," wrote Ajit Ranade. Every child must be in school and all should have the opportunity for higher education, but life does not end with education. Education must lead to respectable jobs. Or else, it has no value. Lives wasted.      

Started with Canada.

"President Donald Trump's senior trade advisor and tariff advocate Peter Navarro reignited fears of a digital tariff war when he reposted a call for levies on outsourcing on foreign remote workers on social media X." A post by US Navy intelligence officer Jack Posobiec "read like a manifesto for taxing the digital economy." "Navarro's endorsement instantly amplified speculation that the Trump campaign could be preparing ground for tariffs on India's on India's $283-billion IT sector." TOI. A fact-check on X said, "Navarro's claims are hypocritical. India's legal, sovereign purchases of Russian oil for energy security do not violate international law." Another fact-check on X said, "While India has some tariffs, the US has a trade surplus with it in services. The US also continues to import certain commodities from Russia, which is hypocritical." To which, Navarro said, "Fact: India didn't buy Russian oil in large quantities before Russia invaded Ukraine." "Indian special interests are trying to interfere with domestic dialogue with lies about India buying Russian oil. Should X present this crap as comments from 'diverse viewpoints'?" HT. "Prominent conservative voices in the US, mostly with large social media followings, have launched tirades on Indian workers, students, and even 'call centers', flooding platform with posts that have drawn accusations of racism and hypocrisy." Fox News host Laura Ingraham wrote," Don't forget that any trade deal with India will require us to give them more visas...Let Modi see what terms he can get from Xi instead." HT. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to attend the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York later this month...External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is listed to represent India instead." "Modi skipping UNGA comes amid renewed strain in India-US ties." BT. PM Modi is to skip the BRICS virtual trade summit. Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney wrote that Mr Modi's decision "despite India being a prime victim of Trump's weaponization of trade - was clearly calculated to avoid antagonizing Washington during a delicate phase of negotiations, even at the cost of appearing less committed to the BRICS bloc." BT. Anti-immigration rallies by right wing groups in Australia "were preceded by flyers depicting mass migration as a 'crisis' threatening communities, highlighting a surge of Indian migrants since 2020." BT. In November 2024, "Once considered 'immigrant-friendly', Canada has seen a surge in racist remarks directed at Indian-origin immigrants both offline and online in the last few months,' wrote MS Sharma. A four-day "cow-based global summit" from 4 to 7 September at Jaipur had stalls "selling cow products such as ghee, milk, fertilisers and cow dung processing machines, artwork made of cow dung, notebook and stationery items made from cow dung paper along with cosmetic items. A large number of stalls focused on medicines made of cow urine which claims to treat ailments ranging from constipation to cancer." The Wire. Anti-Indian sentiment started in Canada with the Nijjar killing (NDTV) and seems to be spreading. Bit late to be diplomatic.  

Not GST, it's money.

"The 56th meeting of the GST Council, chaired by Union Finance Minister Smt Nirmala Sitharaman has now approved Next-Gen reforms." pib.gov.in. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) "is an indirect tax which has replaced many indirect taxes in India such as the excise duty, VAT, services tax etc." cleartax.in. "The latest reforms mark a major simplification of the GST structure. The shift to a two-slab system of 5% and 18%, removing the earlier 12% and 28% rates, will make taxation more transparent and easier to follow. At the same time, a 40% on luxury and sin goods such as pan masala, tobacco, aerated drinks, high-end cars, yachts and private aircraft ensures fairness and revenue balance." These changes are "extremely consumer friendly." And there will not be a negative impact on tax collections because "it is expected that the consumption boom, fueled by price cuts arising from the GST reductions, will more than offset any decline in GST collections at an individual product level." However, further changes are needed because, "Petroleum products are still not included in the GST framework," wrote MS Mani. Prices may fall slightly but people have to earn to spend. "Professionals are caught in a salary spiral where costs keep climbing, pay moves slowly, and financial stability slips further away." On paper, "India is the world's fastest growing economy, with steady GDP growth, soaring corporate profits and a bullish stock market. But the paychecks of working middle-class Indians tell a very different story - one of financial strain, dwindling savings and rising dependence on debt." India Today. "In India, per capita debt of individual borrowers has grown from Rs 390,000 at the end of March 2023 to Rs 480,000 as of 31 March 2025." An increase of 23%, and "an increasing number of households are taking loans for consumption purposes: that is, to fund their everyday expenses such as shopping and bill payments," wrote M Suresh Babu. "In a blog, Marcellus Investment Managers' Saurabh Mukherjea warns that collapsing white-collar job creation, shrinking real wages, and the rise of AI are gutting the middle-class engine that has long powered India's growth story." BT. As for bringing petroleum under GST, it should be instantly rejected by the states because states can impose their own taxes on petrol, aircraft fuel and on alcohol. Which is why petrol prices vary from Rs 94.30 in Chandigarh to Rs 107.33 in Thiruvananthapuram. goodreturns.in. "The changes in the GST is a double dose of support and growth for the nation," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi. GST collections are shared equally with the states but cess and surcharges levied by the Centre are not. Lower GST collections will reduce revenue of the states but the Central government can plug its revenue loss by increasing cess and surcharges. "Data: Share of cesses and surcharges in Gross Tax Revenue falls to 14.5% in 2023-24, down from the high of 20.2% in 2020-21." factly.in. "Trinamool Congress Rajya Sabha leader Derek O'Brien... said the cess going to the Centre is 'slitting the throat of federalism', and noted that several states have voiced concern over the shrinking divisive pool of tax revenues." ET. Looting the states and conning the people. Higher consumption needs more money. And, money, as they say, doesn't grow on trees.          

An improbable crime.

"A Delhi court...cancelled a non-bailable warrant against former Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer Vikash Yadav, two days after it was issued." Yadav 'failed to appear at the Patiala House Courts in a case of alleged kidnapping and extortion that was filed against him weeks after the US named him in the murder-for-hire plot, identifying him as CC-1 at the time." The Wire. In October 2024, "The US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York said...that it had registered 'murder-for-hire and money laundering charges' against Vikash Yadav for trying to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun." Pannun supports an independent Sikh state Khalistan. "The indictment of Yadav, for the first time, implicates the Indian government directly in the attempted assassination of a dissident." "The Indian government said it is cooperating with the investigation." BBC. "Yadav is an Indian national based in India and used 'Amanat' as an alias when communicating with his co-conspirator, another Indian national, to facilitate the murder plot." fbi.gov. Indian national Nikhil Gupta was arrested in the Czech Republic on 30 June 2023 and extradited to the US on 14 June 2024. justice.gov. Vikash Yadav was allegedly handling Gupta to arrange a hit on Pannun. In the initial indictment of Nikhil Gupta in November 2023, Yadav was referred to as CC-1. "CC-1 is an Indian government agency employee who has variously described himself as a 'Senior Field Officer' with responsibilities in 'Security Management' and 'Intelligence' and who has also referenced previously serving in India's Central Reserve Police Force and receiving 'officer training' in 'battle craft' and 'weapons'. In about May 2023, CC-1 recruited Gupta to orchestrate the assassination (of Pannun)." jusitce.gov. Within weeks of the indictment, Vikash Yadav "was arrested by the special cell of Delhi Police on December 18, 2023, for allegedly kidnapping a businessman in Rohini and extorting money on behalf of jailed gangster Lawrence Bishnoi." TOI. In a bizarre twist, "The owner of a cafe in Delhi who had accused former Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer Vikash Yadav of kidnapping and attempted murder last year, was also arrested on the charge of kidnapping another businessman 10 years ago." The Print, 20 October 2024. Charges were framed against nine individuals in the plot to kidnap the businessman on 24 March 2015 but all were acquitted in April 2023. "An episode of true crime series Crime Patrol from 2014 also featured a similar plot." A comedy of villainy to try and prevent extradition of Vikash Yadav to the US, and subsequent interrogation, by dragging a ridiculous case for years through the courts.  Investigative agencies in India are alleged to harass citizens with false accusations at the government's bidding. The Wire. This is perhaps the first time a false case has been filed to protect a government employee from a long sentence in a US prison. Will the US Justice Department fall for this con trick? Depends on what they will extract in return. Could be costly. For India.    

Everyone will be right.

"Distasteful rumors about the demise of US President Donald Trump trended on social media...after the MAGA supremo uncharacteristically remained out of the public eye for more than 72 hours amid mounting concerns about his health." The rumors "were triggered by concerns about the 79-year old President's health over the past few weeks as TV cameras have shown him with bruises and purple patches on his hands and swollen legs and ankles." TOI. "US economy has been generating 85,000 jobs a month so far in 2025, down from 168,000 last year and an average 400,000 a month during the hiring boom of 2021-2023. However, in a time of uncertainty, employers are less likely to hire, but they are not letting workers go either." ET. "Two Nobel Prize winning economists, Paul Krugman and Robert Shiller, are sending cautionary signals about the US stock market." US markets could be destabilized by Trump's policies. "Krugman warns that these moves can ripple through the economy, causing slower growth while prices rise - a dangerous combination economists call stagflation." "Shiller's landmark work, Irrational Exuberance, explains why markets can sometimes detach from economic fundamentals." ET. "On paper, these are good times for the US economy. The latest GDP numbers show growth was 3.3% in the second quarter. Business investment is up. The unemployment rate remains low, and the inflation rate is reasonable." "And yet. This boom has always felt kind of terrible." "This just might be the worst best boom ever." ET. However, Trump "marked Labor Day weekend by spotlighting what the White House described as 'nearly $10 trillion' in new investments aimed at American workers, part of what officials are calling a 'Golden Age of Prosperity'." TOI. Sounds like the American version of "Amrit Kaal" promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for us in India (investndia.gov.in). Trump also said, "Chinese airlines were forced to keep 200 planes on the ground this year after the US blocked the export of Boeing parts." "The president repeated his threat to raise tariffs if China restricts shipments of rare-earth magnets." ET. Trump's "tariffs are a key reason why the deficit outlook is not collapsing. The US credit rating stays high because of the strong economy," and "S&P said revenue growth, including  tariffs, will help cover the gap created by tax cuts and spending increases, as stated by Fortune." "S&P said the US deficit will not get much better, but it also will not get much worse, as per the reports." ET. "Among other things, it has been said that higher tariffs will cause a US and global recession," but "The country is ahead of everyone - including China - in most of the revolutionary innovations [such as artificial intelligence] that will define the future. Accordingly, its potential annual growth is likely to increase from 2% to 4% by the end of the decade, before rising much higher in the 2030s," wrote the normally pessimistic Prof Nouriel Roubini. So, there we have it. From irrational disaster to irrational exuberance. Wide enough for every pundit to be prophetic. Or, irrational.

A dream explained.

"S&P Global has raised India's long-term sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-', with the short term rating upgraded to A-2 from A-3." pib.gov.in. And, "Beating estimates and marking a five-quarter high, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter of FY26, data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) showed." ET. These numbers are a "call for celebration" and a "wake up call for many gloom-mongers", wrote Sounya Kanti Ghosh. Private consumption expenditure expanded at 7%, investment expanded at 7.8%, the Centre and states front-loaded their capital expenditure, rural wages in real terms expanded 4% and "Growth in services sector at 9.3% (the highest since Q1 FY24) was indeed a pleasant surprise." In short, it is hunky-dory all round, as we Indians say. However, growth of GDP at current prices, or nominal GDP, slowed from 10.8% to 8.8%. In view of Trump's tariffs, "Economists estimate the nominal growth rate will slide to 7.5-8.0% in the full year FY26," which has implications because "nominal growth remains crucial as it forms the basis for the Budget estimates." "To meet the government's initial Budget estimate of GDP for FY26 (Rs 356.98 trillion) the economy needs to grow by around 8% in nominal terms this year, or it could curtail fiscal room for the government," wrote Pragya Srivastava & Payal Bhattacharya. "While the post-pandemic rebound pushed investment up to 33.7% of GDP in 2024-25," "To drive a meaningful economic transformation, India needs consistent real GDP growth of 8%, anchored in manufacturing and exports. India must push its investment rate higher to 36-37% to achieve this goal," wrote Dhiraj Nim. This is because wages have not kept pace with profits and so demand is weak. The same Mr Ghosh wrote, "There is limited crowding-in of private investment demand after years of public sector-led capex. GoI has done most of the heavy lifting. India Inc, sitting on a huge cash pile, should now display the proverbial 'animal spirits' and participate in the Indian growth story more vigorously." Not so hunky-dory, is it? "For generations, America has been a rite of passage for Indian families." "But in 2025, that dream has curdled." News18. Why is the US a land of dreams for Indians if things are so hunky-dory as Mr Ghosh suggests? As a tropical country, monsoon rains can be very heavy in India. But every year life comes to a halt and people die due to waterlogging in Delhi. "Rain has disrupted the daily life of Delhi NCR region, with woaterlogging and flooding danger." HT. The Merauli-Mahipalpur Road at Vasant Kunj, Delhi caved in because a wall built by Delhi Metro Rail Corporation collapsed, causing almost total cessation of traffic. India Today. Delhi is the Capital City. Elections are never held in India during monsoons because, "Monsoon is the evidence" "Roads buckle, drains overflow, airports shut, metro systems stall." "The monsoon is the season when truth seeps through every crack in the pavement. It is the one season that resists spin, resists, spectacle, resists even WhatsApp forwards." "You cannot Photoshop a flooded metro station. You cannot argue with a pothole that swallowed a car," wrote Partha Sinha. Even Mr Ghosh's heavy jargon cannot camouflage the nightmare of the monsoon. Little money, high taxes, zero services. And, that is why the US is a dream for Indians. 

Bracketed with Maldives.

"Last week, Trump announced that he was promoting Gor, his personnel chief to be the next US Ambassador to India." "Now Sergio Gor is set to become Trump's man in India, while also overseeing relations with other South and Central Asian countries." Apparently Barack Obama tried to appoint Richard Holbrooke as special envoy in charge of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2009 but dropped the idea when India lobbied against it. BBC. This is a deliberate insult to Prime Minister Narendra Modi because PM Modi "clearly" told US President Donald Trump that "no talks were held at any level on the India-America trade deal or on the mediation between India and Pakistan by America." BBC. Mr Modi has claimed total credit for the ceasefire after India attacked Pakistan's terrorist infrastructure on 7 May 2025 in Operation Sindoor, with "precision, professionalism and purpose". pib.gov.in. "In his first address to the nation after Operation Sindoor, PM Modi...said while Pakistan pleaded with India to stop the military offensive, New Delhi considered a ceasefire deal only after they promised to stop their misadventure." "Pakistan was appealing to the world to reduce tensions and after being badly beaten, the Pakistani Army contacted the DGMO on the afternoon of May 10," he said. News18. However, Trump "claimed once again to have stopped the tension between India and Pakistan, adding that it was going to be a nuclear war." ET. "I said, I don't want to make a trade deal with you. You guys are going to end up in a nuclear war." "Within about five hours, it was done," Trump claimed for the fortieth time. BT. So, Mr Modi insisting that the conflict ended in total victory for India and that Trump had nothing to do with it makes Trump a liar. Question is: has Trump taken it as a personal insult? Sergio Gor "will not just be the US ambassador to India but also Special Envoy for South and Central Asian affairs." ""As Gor will be overseeing 12 other countries besides India - the Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - the Trump is clearly signalling that it does not see India as a strategic peer but a part of a regional bloc." "Viewed through a regional prism, India will once again be bracketed with Pakistan, a hyphenation Indian diplomacy had succeeded in breaking over time," wrote Bharat Bhushan. Also, by bracketing India with tiny nations like the Maldives it belittles India to an insignificant and inconsequential nation. "Under Modi's premiership, Hindtuva has been increasingly embedded into socio-legal-political system." The Conversation. Nine of the 12 countries that Gor will be in charge of are Muslim. This may be a calculated riposte to Mr Modi. Mr Modi has been forced to attend the 2025 Tianjin SCO summit where many of these Islamic countries were present as well as Pakistan's supporters in the Sindoor conflict - China, Turkey and Azerbaijan. wikipedia. Not just Pakistan, India reduced to the level of Maldives. Some achievement!