Government jobs, or else.

In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "expects India to have a $6.77 trillion economy in 2030. That will mean the average dollar income of an Indian at market exchange rates will be $4,468 in that year, as against $2,878 by the end of 2025," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. According to the World Bank, "the proportion of people living on less than US $2.15 a day, which is the international benchmark for extreme poverty, fell sharply from 16.2% in 2011-12 to just 2.3% in 2022-23." So, "India has lifted 171 million people out of extreme poverty." pib.gov.in. At a per capita income of $4,468, India is just below the range of upper middle income countries ($4,516-14,005) from 1 July 2024 for FY25. World Bank. A per capita income of $2.15 per day is not enough for two square meals a day. So, "Not only does India need a new poverty line, but one that is substantially higher than the current one." "Between 2014 and 2024, India's GDP grew at an average of 6-7% annually. Corporate profits soared." But the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) suggests that "inflation-adjusted earnings have either stagnated or declined" for "India's informal and low-skilled workforce - accounting for nearly 90% of all workers." In urban India, "A recent CMIE survey found that salaried jobs fell by nearly 10 million between 2019 and 2023. The jobs that replaced them were mostly informal and gig-based, and less secure, less rewarding," wrote Ashutosh Kumar Thakur. In the IT sector "the salary for an entry-level software engineer has inched up from Rs 3,20,000 in 2011 to just Rs 3,75,000 in 2024 - barely keeping pace with inflation. Meanwhile, CEO compensation in the same sector has quadrupled over the same period," wrote Ravi Venkatesan. Businessman Kishore Biyani divides Indians into three groups - "India 1 (about 120 million people who can afford domestic help), India 2 (about 300 million domestic helpers, drivers and delivery workers), and India 3 (nearly a billion people earning less than $3 a day)." India 2 is under severe stress and barely growing. While the poor remain where they are, "India's luxury retail sector has seen unprecedented growth, with leasing activity surging by 90% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year." "With the increasing number of high-income households in India, expected to double from 15 million in FY23 to 30 million by 2030, India's luxury market is predicted to reach Rs 85-90 billion (US $1.01-1.06 billion) by 2030, a 3.5 fold increase." IBEF. A study of Young India showed that for many "the aspiration was a government job, a coveted position of stability and security." "For a cohort of people not yet 30, an alarmingly large number reported fatigue, sleep issues, anxiety...and difficult menstrual health," wrote M Krishnamurthy & R Bijapurkar. "Indian children are being found at the US borders with Mexico and Canada - without documents, guardians or belongings - carrying only a slip of paper with their parents' names and contact details." From October 2024 to February this year "77 unaccompanied Indian minors were apprehended at the US borders." ET. Anyone with a government job would not dream of abandoning their children. Others have no dreams. Maybe their children will. In the US.

Squeeze tight.

"Pakistan said...it has 'credible intelligence' that India intends to launch military action soon," as Prime Minister Narendra Modi "told his military chiefs they have the freedom to decide the country's response to the Pahalgam attack." Reuters. Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines, so that "Indian carriers - including Air India, IndiGo, Akasa Air and SpiceJet - must now fly longer, and thus costlier, flights on some westbound routes." CNBC. "India is considering the closure of its airspace to Pakistani carriers, a move that would force the rerouting of planes over China or Sri Lanka to reach South East Asia destinations such as Kuala Lumpur." ET. Why still thinking when Pakistan was so quick to ban our flights? "India last week suspended the World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 after the attack in Kashmir." "Pakistan is preparing international legal action." Reuters. "India would need at least 22 dams the size of Bhakra Nangal - the largest dam on the rivers governed by the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) - to store the water that currently flows into Pakistan, as per the analysis by India Today's Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) team." Apart from being extremely expensive, building dams in the Himalayas could have catastrophic consequences. "For years, scientists have been warning us about a ticking time bomb buried deep beneath the Himalayas that could rip through northern India and have catastrophic consequences." TOI. The Himalayas are extremely bio-diverse and ecologically sensitive. Attacking Pakistan militarily may not be easy. Lieutenant General (Retd) HS Panag warned, "India does not have overwhelming technological edge in any field - missiles, drones or aeronaval power - to carry out retributory surgical strikes with impunity. Pakistan has the capability to respond in a quid pro quo manner and we should be prepared for the same." ET. "The Indian Air Force (IAF) requires the production of at least 35 to 40 fighter jets per year to replace its aging fleet, Air Chief Marshall AP Singh said." India Today. In addition, "While India armed forces are already struggling with the high crash rate and poor serviceability of their 350 obsolete single-engine Cheetah and Chetak helicopters, the military is now facing a serious setback due to the grounding of nearly 330 twin-engine 'Dhruv' advanced light helicopters (ALHs)" which are "crucial for many military tasks". ET. "India and France on Monday (28 April) signed a key deal to procure 26 naval variants of Rafale fighter jets at a cost of around Rs 630 billion for the Indian Navy." Consisting of "22 single-seat Rafale M fighters and four twin-seat trainers". HT. It will take a long time to manufacture the aircraft, test them and train Indian pilots to fly them. In February, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh said he did not have confidence in Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd's ability to "ensure timely deliveries of the Tejas MK 1A fighter jet". MC. If generals and marshals are warning perhaps we should take a breath before risking the lives of our soldiers. On 4 April, Pakistan had only $10.70 billion in foreign exchange reserves. BR. We should squeeze their trade. And not let up.        

Threshold subsidy.

"India is moving towards becoming an $8 trillion economy by 2035," but there are "four major hurdles: rising income disparity, low levels of formalization, limited market access and low productivity," reported Nandan Nilekani. "India's productivity is only about $7 per hour, roughly one-tenth of the United States." TOI. Nilekani wants more formalization but investor Shankar Sharma lauds the parallel economy. "I love it. It's fantastic," he said. "It keeps us afloat. It's how India weathers most global economic crises better than others - because the parallel economy does not fall as much as the real economy." BT. A GDP of $8 trillion will take us to third position behind the US and China, higher than Japan, which was $4.20 trillion at current prices in 2023, as well as Germany which was $4.525 trillion in 2023 (World Bank). If our economy is growing gangbusters, why is our government distributing free food grains to 813.5 million people for five years, starting on 1 January 2024 (pib.gov.in)? There are two types of errors in distributing handouts, wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. "Type A errors, represent the leakage of subsidies to the non-poor." while "Type B errors, represent state failure to reach every poor person." Politicians try to reach all the poor, because they constitute the 'vote bank' (wikipedia), but do not mind leakage of subsidies to the non-poor because, "democracy provides a perverse political incentive to maximize the leakage, thus reaching the maximum possible beneficiaries and getting their votes." The new income tax rates for FY 2025-26, promises no tax up to Rs 400,000, rising by 5% for every Rs 400,000 to a maximum of 30% on income above Rs 2.4 million. However, a rebate of Rs 60,000 means that those earning up to Rs 1.2 million do not have to pay any tax. cleartax.in. While "the number of tax returns has more than doubled, from 33.5 million in 2013-14 to 75.4 million in 2023-24," "The number filing zero-income tax returns has more than doubled, from 16.9 million to 47.3 million during the same period," wrote Amitabh Tiwari. This is because the tax threshold at Rs 1.2 million is too high in a country where, the per capita income was Rs 2,12,000 in 2023-24, which amounted to just $2,500, according to the Economic Survey of 2023-24. DD News. So the tax threshold is too high at nearly five times the per capita income. In February, the Supreme Court said that the practice of handouts is creating a "class of parasites". Reuters. Why are taxpayers unconcerned about the misuse of their taxes? Because the high threshold means that most people filing tax returns do not have to pay any income tax, so they do not care. Hence, the high threshold creates a 'zero-tax' vote bank. That's politics. India style.   

Just an advice, no compulsion.

"For several years, the World Bank, and International Monetary Fund have praised India for becoming the fastest-growing major economy." "And yet global credit rating agencies - Moody's, S&P and Fitch - still rate India's sovereign bonds as just one grade above what is labeled 'junk' in the bond market." As a result, "The rate of interest on 10-year gilts in India (6.3%) is far higher than in Japan (1.35%), US (4.4%) or Germany (2.51%)," even though, India's combined central and state governments debt is 81.3% of GDP in 2025, while "The US ratio is 124% for the federal govt alone. It is 95% in the UK, 135% in Italy and a whopping 263% in Japan," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. The IMF and the World Bank are known as Breton Woods Institutions which are financed by governments of developed countries. The World Bank provides loans at low interest to countries for reconstruction and development. The IMF is the 'international lender of last resort for countries facing an external financing crisis'. bu.edu. India uses the build-operate-transfer system for infrastructure projects, in which a private company builds a project, recovers its investment by charging users for a period before transferring it back to the government. wikipedia. For instance, "India's toll collection touched an all-time high in FY25 at Rs 729.31 billion, an increase of 12.5%." ET. Also, "India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $8 billion to a six-month high of $686 billion in the week ended April 18," BS. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) acquired 57.5 tonnes of gold during FY25," so that the "RBI's aggregate gold holdings reached 879.6 tonnes by March 2025." TOI. Why is our rating so low? Credit rating agencies (CRA) are US institutions providing guidance to US funds which invest savings of US citizens. These are ordinary people who cannot afford to lose money. In 2023, "UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was in office for just 44 days before she announced her resignation," because, "Yields on UK government bonds - known as gilts - soared after the government announced its mini-budget, which means that prices have crashed as bond yields move inversely to prices." CNBC. No politician resigns in India, as winning an election is considered an investment for unrestrained power and unbelievable luxury at public expense (ET). Still, Indian government bonds have been included in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index - Emerging Market (GBM-EM) from 28 June 2024, increasing by 1% every month to a maximum of 10% by March 2025. Mint. This is expected to bring over $20 billion into Indian bond market, increasing prices and reducing yields. In 2025, "Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) invested around Rs 110 billion in Indian government securities,..since its inclusion in the Bloomberg Emerging Market (EM) Local Currency Index." MC. So, in spite of US agencies advising caution US funds are pouring enormous sums of money into our sovereign bonds. Instead of criticising the agencies we should improve our governance, strengthen our institutions and institute economic reforms. That would be very difficult. Easy to blame foreigners. Takes the load off our lot.  

Borrowing is income.

According to a report by the World Bank, in India, "the proportion of people living on less than 2.15 US dollars a day, which is the benchmark for extreme poverty, fell sharply from 16.2% in 2011-12 to just 2.3% in 2022-23." "Through targeted welfare schemes, economic reforms and increased access to essential services, India has made substantial strides in reducing poverty levels." pib.gov.in. "This significant reduction marks the country's success in pulling 171 million people above the extreme poverty line." Rural extreme poverty rates dropped from 18.4% to 2.8%, and urban from 10.7% to 1.1%, narrowing the gap between rural and urban poverty levels from 7.7% to 1.7%, a decline of 16% annually. "Regarding employment, the World Bank noted that employment growth had outpaced the working-age population since 2021-22, with employment rates, particularly among women, rising." TOI. "India's household debt marginally increased to 23.9% of GDP in FY25 as against 23.1% of GDP in FY24 with the rise of retail loans being the key driver of credit growth after the pandemic,..US banking group Morgan Stanley said in a report." "The uptick in household debt, and the simultaneous decline in household net financial saving, has sparked concerns about over-leverage and stress in the household balance sheet." TIE. "Using RBI data, (Saurabh) Mukherjea says 5-10% of middle class households are stuck in a debt trap." "At the center of this shift is the India Stack - Jandhan, Aadhaar, Mobile," which have "made borrowing dangerously effortless." "First came defaults among microfinance borrowers. Then, unsecured personal loans began turning sour. Now credit cards NPAs (non-performing assets) are rising and issues are surfacing in two-wheeler financing." BT. "India's direct tax collections, in gross terms, have witnessed a robust growth of 15.59% year-on-year, reaching Rs 27.02 trillion in 2024-25." "In 2023-24, it was Rs 23.38 trillion." Corporate tax collections rose to Rs 12.72 trillion" and "The Non-corporate (individual) tax collections surged to Rs 13.73 trillion." ET. If 10% of middle-class households are stuck in a debt trap and yet individuals are paying higher income tax, are people borrowing to pay the government? While companies are raking in fat profits which are reflected in "the median compensation for non-promoter chief executive officers (CEOs) in India in 2025 has touched Rs 100 million, marking a 13% increase from the previous year, according to Deloitte India." ET. While reducing abject poverty levels is laudable, earning $2.15 per day is not going to extricate India from the lower middle-income level - per capita income of $1,146-4,515 per year - in the World Bank's classification of countries on July 1, 2024. Increased tax collections help to pay for "targeted welfare schemes" and that helps in winning elections. Poor people constitute the 'vote bank' (wikipedia). Create wealth for politicians.

Who suffers?

"On 22 April 2025, a terrorist attack at Baisaran Valley in Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir killed 26 and injured more than 20 others." The terrorists specifically targeted Hindu men. wikipedia. When one woman confronted the attackers and asked them to kill her along with her husband, one of them said, "I won't kill you. Go tell this to Modi." ET. "The timing couldn't have been worse. Kashmir was riding a high: tourist arrivals had climbed from 3.4 million in 2020 to a record 23.6 million in 2024, including 65,000 foreign tourists." "The region's real GSDP (gross state domestic product) for 2024-25 was projected to grow at 7.06%, with a nominal GSDP estimated at Rs 2.65 trillion" "while per capita income was expected to touch Rs 1,54,703 in FY 25, up 10.6% year-on-year." BT. Pakistan's per capita GDP at current prices in 2024 was $1580 (IMF), which converts to 1,34,932 Indian Rupees at Rs 85.40 to one dollar (xe.com). Must be humiliating for Pakistan. "But amid the horror and confusion, a different kind of story emerged - one of immense bravery. In the absence of formal rescue teams during those critical first moments, it was the local ponywallahs of Kashmir who stepped in." They became the first responders, while "Another heroic story to emerge is that of 28-year-old Syed Adil Hussain Shah, who lost his life trying to protect the very tourists he served everyday." HT. The attack took the lives of 26 tourists but has dealt a mortal blow to the earnings of all Kashmiris. That is why the day after the slaughter, "the valley shut down to disown the perpetrators of what many termed 'murder of Kashmiriyat' and an act that has heaped 'shame' on Kashmiris. Shops didn't open, traffic was off the road, and schools and colleges remained closed amid protests resonating from South to north Kashmir." TOI. Lt Gen DS Hooda, former General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Northern Command said in an interview, "Of course, intelligence failure was there. J&K DGP's (Director General of Police) statement sometime back that at least 100 terrorists had infiltrated from the Jammu side should remind us of that." "On whether such tourism spots should have presence of troops is difficult to say. Every inch of the territory cannot be guarded." MC. In response to the attack, "India's suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) means that India has put on hold its obligations under the water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, which governs the use of water from six rivers in the Indus basin." TOI. "Experts say it's nearly impossible for India to hold back tens of billions of cubic meters of water from the western rivers during high-flow periods." But, "Pakistan could feel the impact in the dry season, when water availability is already at its lowest." BBC. In retaliation, Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian carriers. ""When Pakistan closes its airspace to Indian carriers, it significantly affects several major international routes, primarily those connecting India to Europe, North America and parts of the Middle East." ET. While Pakistan may or may not suffer a shortage of water, Kashmiris have lost their livelihoods and Indians are already having to suffer the inconvenience of longer flying times. Our citizens die, but we pay. No other country has such horrible neighbors - Pakistan, China and Bangladesh. Can India survive?   

Not just tariffs.

"During his second presidency, United States President Donald Trump enacted a series of steep protective tariffs affecting nearly all goods imported into the United States. Between January and April 2025, the average effective tariff rate rose from 2.5% to an estimated 27% - the highest level in over a century." wikipedia. "In early April, JP Morgan Research raised the probability of a recession occurring in 2025 to 60% - up from 40%." And "now expects the Fed to start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 - reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026." "The IMF downgraded its forecast for US growth by 0.9 percentage point to 1.8% in 2025," and "did not foresee a recession in the US, but the odds of a downturn had increased from 25% to 37%." Forecast for global growth was cut by 0.5% to 2.8% for 2025. Reuters. Although Trump took office in January, "Hiring, spending and inflation look a lot like they did under Joe Biden." "Job growth has averaged 173,000 over the past two months. The unemployment rate has averaged 4.2%, a tenth of a point higher than the prior six months. Both overall inflation and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying price pressures have averaged a tenth of a point less." "Gross domestic product (GDP), after growing 2.5% over 2024, is likely to remain flat or even contract." That could be due to weather. WSJ. "According to Fitch ratings, this would be the highest tariff wall the US has erected since 1909." Trump's "anger was singularly directed at the large trade deficit the US shares with its trade partners. In 2024, it ran up to $1.2 trillion. For years, he has considered the trade deficit as the main cause of America's decline." "In the 1950s, the share of manufacturing in US GDP was 25%. Today, it is 10%. Higher wages and production costs had moved manufacturing to low-cost economies like China first and then to countries like Thailand, Mexico and India," wrote N Madhavan. "Trump makes bold accusations...and announces punitive actions to push the other side into negotiations. On the table, he offers temporary relief but seeks maximum concessions. The best way to respond to such tactics is to counter false narratives with facts and stand firm," advised Ajay Srivastava. The problem with a muscular approach is that "US total goods trade with India were an estimated $129.2 billion in 2024." "The US goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2024, a 5.4% increase ($2.4 billion) over 2023." ustr.gov. Better to conserve our gains by being conciliatory. "The Trump team is clearly prioritizing relations with India and recognizes that India's emergence as a global power has the potential to transform the Indo-Pacific region and the world." Therefore, it would be "Better for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to signal early efforts to reduce the US trade deficit and to remind Trump of the geopolitical underpinnings of the relationship," wrote Lisa Curtis. Especially after the dastardly attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir by terrorists based in Pakistan (CNN). While Trump concentrates on trade India has to worry about its barbaric neighbors. Having the US on our side could help. It's not only about tariffs.    

We are safe.

"The World Bank...revised India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-26 down to 6.3%, a 0.4 percentage point cut from its previous estimate of 6.7%." "The International Monetary Fund (IMF)...cut its economic growth forecast for India" to "6.2% from the 6.5% it has forecast in January for the fiscal year that started on April 1." Reuters. Even so, "India's economy has the strength to withstand headwinds triggered by the global tariff war due to a strong macroeconomic framework, moderating inflation and robust domestic engines of growth, an RBI report said." TOI. On 3 April, US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs of 26% on Indian goods. TOI. On 23 April, he announced a pause for 90 days while maintaining the 10% base tariff on all goods coming into the US, but the tariff on China was hiked to 125% (Mint). This was later increased to 145% "As global businesses look to further diversify their supply chains away from China, India has the chance to strategically position itself as a viable alternative, capitalizing on this shift to boost exports, attract investments and enhance its manufacturing capabilities." TOI. However, "To benefit from tariffs, exporters must prove their goods are genuinely made in India - something that's not always straight- forward." "This is where US non-preferential Rules of Origin (RoO) matter." Goods may originate wholly in a country, as in agricultural produce, or must undergo substantial transformation in the exporting country, if assembled from parts from different sources. So, "Indian exporters must closely review their production processes. There must be real manufacturing or transformation of inputs, like making key parts, programming or chemical changes." Made in India must be backed by strong documentation, wrote Ajay Srivastava. "Indian policy planners, over the decades, have been much castigated for their inability to turn the country into an exporting success story like the countries of Southeast Asia. In recent years, criticism has been leveled at the Indian government for not taking advantage of the China-plus strategy to the extent that Vietnam has. Ironically, at a time of global trade shifts, it is precisely these policy failures that have meant that India stands to be relatively more insulated from the trade disruption." Mint. Perhaps, only India celebrates its failures. But, why? Because, "Only the richest now pay income tax, constituting only 4% of the population." "Most voters are unconcerned with the misuse of tax money since they do not pay income tax." And so, "Most voters want to expand the freebie base, not the tax base," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. We are immune to Trump tariffs because we have little manufacturing and few goods exports. But a massive 813.5 million poor people needing free food grains. pib.gov.in. We are safe. Hooray.  

It's called dividend.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sold net $1.62 billion worth of foreign exchange in the spot market in February, according to the central bank's monthly Bulletin shared on April 22." The "RBI purchased $45.03 billion and sold $46.65 billion of foreign exchange during the period. In January, the central bank sold a net of $11.14 billion in the spot market." MC. On 1 February 2025, in her Budget speech, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman "pegged dividend demands from the RBI, nationalized banks and financial institutions higher at Rs 2.56 trillion." CNBC. Naturally, since the RBI transferred a windfall of Rs 2.1 trillion to the government in 2024. TOI. The RBI is expected to pay a record Rs 2.5 trillion to the government this year. "Emkay expects the final dividend amount to be in the range of Rs 2.8 trillion to Rs 3 trillion." India Today. "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. At this rate what is the upper limit? Can the payout top Rs 10, Rs 20 or even Rs 100 trillion, if the Budget demands? Meanwhile, the RBI has been boosting its foreign exchange reserves. Reserves rose by $1.5 billion to $677.84 billion as of 11 April having risen by $10.8 billion to $676 billion in the week ending 4 April. ET. Having slipped to an all-time low of Rs 87.95 to one dollar on 10 February (ET), the Indian rupee (INR) strengthened to 85.159 yesterday before closing at 85.170  (Investing.com), allowing the RBI to keep buying dollars. "The Indian rupee ended weaker yesterday, in line with regional peers that fell tracking the Chinese yuan, but potential inflows into local shares helped the currency avoid further losses." "India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, rose for the sixth session in a row, diverging from most regional indexes." Reuters. The Sensex opened at a low of 71.449 on 7 April but has rocketed to 80.142 yesterday. Investing.com. "In just six trading sessions, the Sensex has vaulted nearly 6,000 points," as "A $2 billion foreign funds gush - Rs 166 billion of FII buying in just four sessions - as India cements its position as a relative safe haven amid global uncertainty." ET.  There is rising discontent throughout the world because "there is a deeper force underlying today's disarray: economic stagnation. The world is experiencing a long-term slowdown in growth rates that began in the 1970s, worsened after the 2008 global financial crisis and shows no sign of improving." "In the past G20 economies regularly grew 2 to 3 percent per year, doubling incomes every 25 to 30 years. Today, many growth rates are 0.5 to 1 percent, meaning incomes now take 70 to 100 years to double - too slow for people to feel progress in their lifetimes," wrote Aaron Benanav. Indians have insulated themselves with gold. "As gold prices soared to touch Rs 100,000 per 10 grams at the retail level.., Uday Kotak took to social media to celebrate a familiar Indian investor: the homemaker." "Indian women collectively own a staggering 24,000 to 25,000 tonnes of gold," more than "the official reserves of the top five countries combined." ET. The RBI may run out of cash but our women don't depend on it. They have something solid. Yellow in color. 

Irresistible attraction.

"Moving abroad in search of a 'better life' has long been a common aspiration for many Indians." "A Delhi man who moved to Canada believes otherwise." He said the whole thing is a scam and "international students faced issues such as useless degrees and a poor work-life balance." "He further urged fellow Indians to stay in India, citing the country's economic growth and improving opportunities." HT. Makes us so proud, doesn't it? He has been heard. "For the first time in four years, the number of Indians students heading to foreign universities has simultaneously declined across the top three destinations countries - Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom." TIE. Canadian visas are down 32%, US visas are down 34% and UK visas are down 26%. In addition, half the student visas revoked by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) recently have been those of Indians. FE. "Mounting apprehensions over the abuse of student visa pathways have compelled several Australian universities to restrict or scrutinize applications from six Indian states - Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Jammu & Kashmir." Because "education is not the primary intent but a facade for residency ambitions or unauthorized employment." TOI. A recent report revealed "that nearly 20,000 Indian students did not join colleges after arriving in Canada and that the government has no record of where these students are." TOI. A lot of these students were duped by unscrupulous agents in India, possibly because they were so eager to leave. They wanted to believe. In October 2024, 3,000 Indian students queued up outside the Tandoori Flame Restaurant in Brampton, Canada, "waiting to be interviewed for positions of waiters and servers." NDTV. "There are about 7,25,000 illegal immigrants from India living in the US." "From the outside, a day in the life of an illegal immigrant in the US does not look unusual. But they can neither get a registered job nor a driving licence, and have no legal recourse if they become victims of crime." India Today. "The number of Indians seeking asylum in the US is up by 855%. And nearly half of the applications over the last three years have come from Gujarat." However, "If Gujarat is booming - and we keep being told that it is - and if this is the age of Gujarati millionaires, why are so many Gujaratis trying to sneak into America?" asked Vir Sanghvi. "In 2023, out of 67,391 Indian illegal immigrants in the US, Gujaratis were 41,330." "The explanation is rather simple: there are very rich people in Gujarat, but many more very poor people, because the state has not been creating good jobs for years," wrote Prof Christophe Jaffrelot. The allure of El Dorado  (wikipedia) is impossible to resist. Even if they die trying (wikipedia).     

Funding respect.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to 3.34% in March 2025, "a decline of 27 points from February 2025, marking the lowest monthly inflation rate since August 2019. These figures demonstrate a sustained effort to curb price rises while fostering economic growth." pib.gov.in. Apparently, this was done by "bolstering buffer stocks of essential food items and releasing them periodically in open markets, alongside subsidized retail sales of staples like rice, wheat flour, pulses and onions." This is just price control (Investopedia) by another name and reduces profits for farmers. As a band-aid, the government started the Prime Minister Kisan Samman Nidhi (Farmers Respect Fund) (PM-Kisan) Yojana which transfers Rs 6,000 every year to the accounts of beneficiaries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi released the 19th instalment on 24 February from Bhagalpur in Bihar. pib.gov.in. Elections to the Bihar Assembly must be held by November 2025. wikipedia. Double propaganda with taxpayer money. Meanwhile, the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) has stopped publishing data about farmers' suicides since 2016. NDTV. India's wholesale inflation (WPI) fell to a four-month low of 2.05% in March on an annual basis as against 2.38% in February. pib.gov. in. Prices are not falling, they are not rising as fast. Although food prices are controlled by the government, the Law of Supply and Demand (Investopedia) still operates. So, the slowing in the rise of prices could be a combination of government control, base effect (wikipedia) and falling demand due to high prices. "Subprime loans in India are teetering on the edge of a fresh crisis, with surveys showing signs of distress among 60% of borrowers." "There's more pain ahead. With 27% of borrowers taking out new loans to service old ones, and some families driven to more extreme coping strategies, such as pulling children out of school." ET. "These are small, collateral-free advances known as microfinance" and, if people are forced to use these to buy basic essentials, their situation must be dire indeed. On the other side, "Since the pandemic, India's rich have been on a splurge. An overall consumption slowdown has failed to restrain their spending spree." "But now things could be taking a turn. Luxury car sales, a good enough proxy for the luxury market since they combine utility, experience and conspicuous consumption, are slowing down." ET. In the middle, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) defaults on credit cards have risen by 28.42% to Rs 67.42 billion in the 12 months to December 2024. TIE. And yet, despite a slowdown in consumption, "After registering negative growth, the country's gold imports, which impact Current Account Deficit (CAD), jumped by 192.13% to USD 4.47 billion in March, on account of a significant increase in the prices of the yellow metal." ET. Why are people wasting money buying gold? Possibly because they anticipated a reduction in interest rates by the RBI to 6% (TOI), which would reduce interest income on savings in banks. Probably also as a hedge against inflation. Because the people do not trust government figures or the RBI's assurances. Trust is gold.  

Price of karma.

"Half a million weapons obtained by the Taliban in Afghanistan have been lost, sold or smuggled to militant groups, sources have told the BBC - with the UN believing that some have fallen into the hands of al-Qaeda affiliates." "In a report in February, the UN stated that al-Qaeda affiliates, including Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, and Yemen's Ansarullah movement, were accessing Taliban captured weapons or buying them on the black market." The TTP, "strives to remove the Pakistani Government from Pashtun tribal lands in the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa." Since 2018, the TTP "has focused most of its attacks on Pakistani security forces although it also attacks US targets..,government officials, politicians." dni.gov. In 2012, "The Taliban in Afghanistan are being directly assisted by Pakistan security services, according to a secret Nato report." "A Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman called the accusations 'ridiculous'." BBC.  In a chaotic and cowardly confusion, US forces fled from Afghanistan in August 2021, after "a 20-year war which cost the country $2 trillion and nearly 2,500 US lives" (Dawn), leaving behind $7 billion worth of weapons. "According to a 2022 Department of Defense report, 78 aircraft, 40,000 military vehicles and more than 300,000 weapons were some of what was left behind." CBS. At least the aircraft could have been flown to some neighboring country and then to the US. Shows that it was not a "withdrawal" but a rout in blind panic. President Donald Trump has demanded a return of the weapons but "The Taliban in Afghanistan are adamant over decision for not returning the military equipment that the US military left," and "insisted they require more arms, ammunition, advance weapons to fight ISIS-K, Islamic State Khorasan instead of giving the weapons back." HT. While the Taliban is well armed, "Air Chief Marshall AP Singh has persistently and firmly drawn attention to the Indian Air Force's alarming numbers and technology gaps with its rivals." "Our 10 years' defence imports are less than half of our gold imports in an average year and, more tellingly, less than 5% of the import bill of Reliance Industries and about 8% of the Indian Oil Corporation," wrote Shekhar Gupta. China has already gone to another level. "The Chinese military and Chinese defense industry have been pursuing significant investments in robotics, swarming, and other applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)." Brookings. In India, we like to talk. Infosys founder NR Narayana Murthy expressed deep skepticism over the way AI is being misrepresented in India." He warned that "what many companies parade as AI are nothing more than 'silly old programs' dressed up in hype." BT. First Pakistan, and then the US, armed the Taliban. Now it's coming back to them. Karma and result.      

Golf and 'fur babies'.

In September 2024, "According to the UN's tourism agency, international travel for all purposes reached 97% of its pre-pandemic level in the first quarter of 2024." "Indian travelers, in particular, are adding to this growing trend," as "Indian tourists spent US$33.3 billion in 2023, and many destinations are recognising their potential." NDTV. Unfortunately, "India's ranking on the Henley Passport Index 2025 has slipped to 85th place, a drop of five spots from its 80th position in 2024, reflecting a slight decline in the global travel mobility." TOI. A travel vlogger was disappointed with his passport. "This thing that I have, it has no value," he said in Hindi, holding up his Indian passport. "Har jagah entry denied (entry denied everywhere)." HT. "For the first time in four years, the number of Indian students heading to foreign universities has simultaneously declined across the top three destination countries - Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom." "The data show a sharp decline of at least 25% in Indian students receiving study permits across these key destinations in 2024." TIE. Australia "has launched a visa crackdown on Indians, especially from five states, including Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, UP and Bihar." ET. "India is likely to interfere in the Canadian general election on April 28, the country's spy service said." ET. "A report by the United States intelligence community has identified India and China as 'state actors' often 'directly or indirectly' enabling 'non-state actors' as sources of precursors and equipment for drug traffickers." DH. This is one side of India, but there is another side that remains largely invisible to the rest of us. "There was a time when being born into a business family meant inheriting responsibility before wealth." "They learnt the virtues of waking up at 6 am, working 12 hours a day, snatching hurried meals, while plotting industry domination." Today, "those hands are often busy holding a golf club, a champagne flute, or on the steering wheel of a brand new Lamborghini." "Because it's risk-free, stress-free and tan-friendly," wrote industrialist Harsh Goenka. "Pampering one's pet used to be a luxury exclusive to the ultra-rich. But now affluent and middle-class urban Indians...are splurging more on their 'fur babies', fueling a boom in India's pet care industry." BBC. There are three Indias. India 1 is the top 10% or 140 million people with a per capita income of $15,000. "Two-third of the share of discretionary spending in India comes from this segment." India 2 consists of 300 million people with a per capita income of $3,000. "The emerging aspirant class, heavy consumers yet reluctant payers." India 3 consists of 1 billion people with no job security or health benefits. "And they are definitely not the ideal consumers, with almost no income at their disposal (to spend) on discretionary goods." The Wire. In February 2024, 9,26,24,661 Indians held an Indian passport. mea.gov.in. Just about 93 million. Not even all the top 140 million have passports. No matter. We don't get visas.    

Neighbors and nightmares.

In March this year the USCIRF (US Commission on International Freedom) recommended, "Designate India as a 'country of particular concern'," for violating religious freedom. US-based Freedom House described India as 'partially free', V-Dem from Sweden calls it an 'electoral autocracy' and UK's Economist Intelligence Unit labels it a 'flawed democracy'. The Global Hunger Index of 2024 has placed India at 105." Statesman. Apparently, foreigners want to drag India back because it is racing ahead. "The sovereign ratings that the big three (S&P, Moody's , Fitch) credit ratings agencies (CRA) assign a country impact its access to and cost of borrowing in international markets." India and Greece are both ranked at BBB- using flawed methodology and bias, wrote J Sinha & DN Mukherjee. They compare the two countries based on the size of their GDP and the fact that India has never defaulted on its debt while Greece has. Greece's nominal GDP per capita was $23,400 in 2023 while that of India was just $2,480.8. World Bank. So, the Greeks are much better off individually. Greece is a member of the European Union and the Eurozone (wikipedia), so its citizens can move freely and have greater opportunities for education and employment. Finally, Greece has only one enemy and that is Turkey, but both are members of NATO (Atlantic Council), whereas India is surrounded by enemies (Pakistan, China, Bangladesh) and unstable nations, namely Myanmar where a civil war has been raging since 2021 (wikipedia) and Afghanistan. Perhaps, instead of being so touchy these 'experts' should talk to ordinary Indians. To compare India with Thailand a person "requested anonymity to avoid getting into trouble with officials", wrote Andy Mukherjee. That shows the lack of freedom. In India, "At every step of dealing with the petty bureaucracy, some money needs to change hands to speed up the process." "All told, 19% of a $2.3 million factory in India is an extra burden of governance - or lack of it - that doesn't exist in Thailand." Responding to "Mahima Jalan's post about bribe demands and bureaucratic red tape," Abhinav Upadhyay wrote, "Getting GST is a nightmare." BT. If paying goods and services tax (GST) to the government is so difficult how can anyone start any business? The government has published new tax laws and, while some sections are simpler, "It does nothing to ease Indians' basic concern: The taxman will send them a demand for an arbitrary sum when they least expect it." "This hostile mindset means that compliance costs are too high and disputes too frequent. The burden is so troublesome, in fact, that it renders the country's small businesses globally uncompetitive," wrote Mihir Sharma. Manoj Arora wrote that a two-meter damage of a footpath outside his house has not been repaired in four months. "While India struggles to fix a footpath, China is busy building entire cities, manufacturing powerhouses, and advancing in technologies like AI. rail and semiconductors," he wrote. Perhaps the Credit Rating Agencies take the problems of citizens and businesses into account when assigning their ratings but consider it undiplomatic to mention them. Our experts focus on a few figures but not on the whole picture. Maybe they do not dare. Just ask the people. Anonymously.     

Not just one.

"India has decided to pursue a path of trade liberalisation with the United States," and so, "India and the US agreed in February to work on the first phase of a trade deal to be concluded later this year, with a view to reaching $500 billion by 2030." "Reuters reported last month that India is open to cutting tariffs on more than half of US imports worth $23 billion in the first phase of a trade deal." ET. "We don't negotiate with gun to head," said Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. Maybe, but even so, "Indian trade teams are 'really charged up' and want to swiftly seal a bilateral deal with the US." Whence comes the "charge". "India is also in the midst of negotiating free trade deals with the European Union and the UK." "The two sides have been discussing a deal since 2007, but have approached talks with much more urgency since Trump's return to the White House." DH. No progress for 18 years but suddenly "charged up". You cannot put a "gun to head" of 'a headless chicken' (Collins). "India's total exports during FY 2024-25 (April-March) is estimated at US$820.93 Billion registering a positive growth of 5.50%. Total imports during FY 2024-25 is estimated at US$915.19 Billion registering a growth of 6.85%." pib.go.in. Total trade deficit increased from $78.39 billion to $94.26 billion. Merchandise exports remained almost static at $437.42 billion in FY 25 from $437.07 in FY 24, but imports jumped from $678.21 billion in FY24 to $720.24 billion. The biggest component of India's import basket is crude oil, "India's crude oil imports rose to 219.9 million tonnes (mt) in the 11 months to February from 213.4 mt in the year-ago period." TIE. Although the price of crude has fallen from $83.15 per barrel in the US (eia.gov) to $61.23 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate this morning (oilprice.com), the total expense would have risen. The Indian rupee has climbed from an all-time low of 87.95 to the dollar on 11 February (ET) to around 85.65 to one dollar this morning (xe.com). "India's forex reserves rose by $10.8 billion to $676 billion as of the week ending April 4, 2025, data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed." BS. Which is great since it increases our reserves and probably restricts the rupee from strengthening even more. Even as the rupee is getting stronger, the Chinese yuan has become weaker. On 9 April, "China's yuan ended at its weakest level in more than 17 years," as "The onshore finished the domestic trading session at 7.3498 per dollar, its weakest since December 2007." Reuters. Worried about President Trump's tariffs, "Beijing has signaled its intention to address India's concerns about a growing trade deficit that was estimated at a record $100 billion in FY25." HT. Signaling is easy, action will be very difficult, if not impossible. "Veteran investor Shankar Sharma thought he had stumbled upon a sign of India's manufacturing rise - a cluttered workshop in a Mumbai slum promising custom-made gym equipment with catalog-level polish." But his optimism disappeared when the shop owner said, "Sir, I import from China and assemble here. Their, quality, finish, look, is simply unmatchable." BT. Also, much cheaper, and, with both the dollar and the yuan weakening against the rupee, imports are only going to rise. The only positive is that "Overseas Indians sent home a record $129.4 billion in 2024 with the highest ever inflows of $36 billion in the December quarter alone." ET. If the US goes into recession and if illegal Indian migrants are sent back, this could fall. It's not just one gun, but many guns to the head. Better to get charged up. Like a headless chicken.   

Disturbing but necessary.

"Global recession fears have set in after US President Donald Trump took some bold tariff decisions. The fall of the mighty US Dollar has also complicated the situation. However, an expert has claimed that the US Dollar was still in better position than the American currency traded during the 2008 financial crisis." ET. "US consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers...said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 this month from a final reading of 57.0 in March." Reuters. China has raked in windfall gains, as "The world's two biggest economies are headed for divorce that will play out for the rest of this year and beyond, after a month that saw a huge spurt in China's exports and its overall trade surplus hit near $103 billion." ET. Money in the pocket is valuable insurance. Radio Free Asia reported, "Major export provinces and shipping ports, including Shanghai and Guangdong, have seen a sharp decline in activity, with cargo traffic to the US coming to a near halt." "Shipping containers that missed the April 9 deadline for US-bound vessels are now stacked high at these ports." In "Zhejiang and Guangdong - the provinces contributing the most to China's exports in 2024 - factory operations have been brought to a halt." ET. "At present, China's exports are facing a complex and severe external situation, but 'the sky will not fall," said a spokesperson of China's customs department. TOI. While China has retaliated with a tariff of 125% on US goods, India has chosen "a path of dialogue and trade talks. Firstly, the tariffs on New Delhi were comparatively lower than a few major economies, and secondly, Trump has been, so far, favorable to India's approach to tariff hikes." TN. Still, "If the United States and China - the world's - two largest economies are heading into a major slowdown, the impact on India will be far more severe than anything the current tariff war might bring, said Swaminathan Aiyar." "Amid rising trade tensions with Washington, China...urged India to join hands in resisting what it called the 'US abuse of tariffs', after President Donald Trump announced a steep hike." HT. In March 2024, "China...said the Sino-India border issue does not represent the entirety of the bilateral ties and called for enhancing mutual trust between the two countries." BS. In other words, we may attack suddenly, kill your soldiers, as at Galwan  (BBC), but you should continue to buy our products and support us. Arrogant idiocy of Communist barbarians. However, "In a pointed critique of global trade imbalances, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said China's economic ascent was built on 'unfair trade practices, hidden subsidies and distorted labor models." ET. A severe recession in China may affect India's economy but ultimately will surely be beneficial for India. "Creative Destruction" (Investopedia) works. Necessary. 

Food first.

"The country's goods and services exports have crossed $820 billion in 2024-25, marking a nearly 6% increase over the previous fiscal year despite global uncertainties, the commerce ministry said. Merchandise exports increased slightly from $395.38 billion in April-February in 2023-24 to $395.63 billion in the same period this year. Services exports increased from $311.05 billion to $354.90 billion. "In the last few decades, a large consumer class has emerged in India which has consumption patterns above the pre-1991 bare necessities of roti, kapda aur makan (food, clothes and shelter)." There are an estimated 40 million people with annual income above $10,000 per year, and this number will rise to 88 million by 2028, overtaking Germany and Japan, reported UBS Bank. To put it in perspective, as of 2023, the nominal gross national income (GNI) per capita of Germany was $54,800 per year, that of Japan was $39,350 while that of India was a paltry $2,540 per year. World Bank. "Luxury car sales, a good enough proxy for the luxury market since they combine utility, experience and conspicuous consumption, are slowing down." The Hurun India Rich List estimates that there are 334 dollar billionaires in India. There are a total of 1,539 individuals with a wealth of over Rs 10 billion. "If Rs 50 billion is taken as the threshold, the rich list has 534 HNIs (high net worth individuals)." ET. "Despite market volatility, the median compensation for non-promoter Chief executive officers (CEOs) in India in 2025 has touched Rs 100 million, marking a 13% increase from the previous year, according to Deloitte India." ET. While politicians and bureaucrats boast of rising sales of luxury products, ordinary Indians may not be able to afford healthcare. "In recent years, a worrying trend has emerged in India's health insurance market: many individuals are choosing to quit their health policies." A combination of high premiums, a usurious 18% goods and services tax (GST) on health insurance (India Filings), along with a "surge in claim rejections and the feeling of inadequate coverage that is leading many to reconsider their insurance choices." ET. Forget healthcare insurance with 18% GST, "Subprime loans in India are teetering on the edge of a fresh crisis, with surveys showing signs of distress among 68% of borrowers." "With 27% of borrowers taking out new loans to service old ones, and some families driven to more extreme coping strategies, such as pulling children out of school, the industry is bracing itself for higher defaults." ET. "Are we going to be happy being delivery boys and girls?" asked Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. No sir, but not everyone can be a Union minister living free in a bungalow in Lutyens Delhi (wikipedia) and traveling first class at taxpayer expense. At least being "delivery boys and girls" provides basic roti, kapda and makaan. While waiting for Amrit Kaal (investindia.gov.in).       

Rulers and subjects.

"The European Union is racing to clinch trade deals with country's around the world in an effort to diversify away from an increasingly protectionist US as officials worry that the transatlantic relationship has been irreversibly damaged." "The EU already has the largest network of trade agreements in the world, covering some 75 partners and more than 2 trillion euros in trade, according to data compiled by the bloc." ET. Before rushing into Europe's arms we should read the list of colonies of European countries (wikipedia), remember the atrocities they committed and the wealth they plundered. But worse, their complete lack of any remorse,  as shown by their refusal to apologize, let alone pay reparations for their crimes. However, the greater problem with a trade deal is that "The European Union is seeking lower tariffs on items of interest to Brussels, including whiskey, wine and cars, among others. TIE. These are the very items that contribute a large part of the Indian government's revenue. The smallest cars are taxed at 29%, SUVs at 43% and larger SUVs at 50%. cars24.com. Alcoholic beverages made in India are taxed at around 70-80% and contributed Rs 2.8 trillion in 2021. vakilsearch.com. If tariffs on EU whiskey and wine are reduced the government will have to reduce taxes on Indian drinks as well and that will slash government revenue drastically. "The government...hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per liter. At a time when global crude prices are on a steady decline, the hike signals a fresh focus on ramping up govt revenues for possible capital expenditure after tax relief given in the Union Budget 2025." The cost of domestic cooking gas has been increased by Rs 50 per 14.2 kg cylinder of gas. DH. "Foreign companies have often struggled in India due to high tax demands related levies payable on big M&A transactions or government accusations of duty evasions on imports, at times leading to prolonged litigation." Reuters. In December 2024, "The Swiss authorities have suspended the most favored nation (MFN) status provision in the Double Taxation Avoidance Treaty (DTAA) with India," because Switzerland has to pay 10% tax under the treaty whereas Colombia and Lithuania are taxed at 5%. TOI. India wants trade disputes to be adjudicated in Indian courts, but "From Saudi Arabia to the UK and the European Union to Sri Lanka, India's model bilateral investment treaty (BIT) and the finance ministry's steadfast refusal to tweak it is posing problems not just for trade negotiators but also for countries with which govt is seeking to work out investment arrangements." TOI. No one trusts India's judicial system. "In a major embarrassment, Singapore Court has quashed an arbitral award against the special purpose vehicle (SPV) set up to manage dedicated freight corridors in India after finding that the tribunal headed by retired CJI Dipak Misra had copied 112 of 451 paragraphs from two earlier awards involving the same parties but on different issues." TOI. The former Chief Justice of India, no less. "After we got independence, one set of imperialists left the country, another set of brown imperialists took over in Delhi,"said Mohandas Pai. "They look down upon the people. We are subjects and victims of government in Delhi, in Bangalore, in other places because they think they are our rulers and we are their subjects and victims." BT. Indians have no option. Foreigners have no intention of being victims. Natural. 

What if?

"President Donald Trump...dropped new tariffs rates on imports from most US trade partners to 10% for 90 days to allow trade negotiations with these countries." He also increased the tariff rate on China to 125% "effective immediately". CNBC. In retaliation, "China will impose 125% tariffs on US goods from Saturday (12 April), up from 84% previously announced, as the trade war between the world's powerful nations continued." ET. "China hiked its levies on imports of US goods to 125%.., hitting back at Donald Trump's decision to single out the world's No 2 economy for higher duties, while dismissing the US President's tariff strategy as 'a joke'." Trump meanwhile increased tariffs on China to 145%. Reuters. "Given that American goods are no longer marketable in China under the current tariff rates, if the US further raises tariff rates on Chinese exports, China will disregard such measures," said the Chinese foreign ministry. President Xi Jinping called it "unilateral bullying". MC. That looks like an admission that China already taxes US goods so highly that any more makes no difference. Also, China imported just $143.5 billion from the US while exporting nearly $439 billion worth of goods in 2024 (census.gov), so it may have run out of anything to tax. No nation can surpass China in "unilateral bullying", as it has claimed the entire South China Sea as its own territory by using a fictitious 'nine-dash line' (wikipedia) and is using its military power for maritime piracy, prompting former President of the Philippines Benigno Aquino to compare China to Hitler's Germany (BBC). "Ironically, China can only blame itself" because "China uses various non-tariff barriers , such as stringent regulations and licensing requirements to protect domestic industries." "Chinese private companies doing business in other countries are seen as arms of the state and have also been accused of working to advance the interest of the Chinese state in other countries such as through spying or theft of critical technology." ET. With spectacular results, as its economy grew at an average of 10% over 30 years. wikipedia. Economists have labeled Trump as 'stupid' and his policies as a sign of 'weakness' of the US. ET. Washington is losing its advantage in Asia. "In contrast, Beijing is showing it knows how to treat its friends. In December it lowered its tariffs to zero on certain products from least-developed countries it has diplomatic relations with," wrote Karishma Vaswani. Why are so-called experts crawling out of the woodwork to proclaim that Trump's policies will fail when similar policies have served China so tremendously? What if Trump's policies may be successful? Scary.       

They are more dear.

"Global markets took a hit after US President Donald Trump announced a wave of reciprocal tariffs on over 180 countries, heightening fears of a recession and slowing growth." But the rich and the government in India are rejoicing. "With oil prices cooling off and the dollar losing strength, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) finds itself in a more comfortable position to pursue interest rate cuts - both in upcoming April policy meeting and possibly for the rest of the financial year." MC. Brent crude has slumped to $60.57 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. The average closing price of crude has been $71.15 per barrel this year, down from $94.53 in 2022. Macrotrends. Immediately, "The government...hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per liter." Apparently, the retail price of petrol will remain the same but the price of cooking gas is to rise by Rs 50 per cylinder. ET. The retail price of petrol varies from a low of Rs 94.49 in Ahmedabad to a high of Rs 107.46 in Hyderabad in India (cardekho.com) while the average price of petrol in the US was $3.243 per US gallon on 7 April, which works out to about Rs 73.82 per liter (eia.gov) assuming 1 US gallon at 3.8 liters (unitconverters.net) and 1 USD at Rs 86.5 (xe.com). A reduction in the cost of transport would leave a little bit of money in the hands of ordinary people to spend, but instead, the cost of cooking gas has been increased. Why so cynical? Because, the salary of members of Parliament has been increased to Rs 124,000, constituency allowance to Rs 87,000 and office allowance to Rs 75,000 per month. TOI. MPs also get free first class travel, car and driver, rent free bungalows, free water and electricity and other handouts. DD. Dearness (inflation) Allowance for government officials has been increased to 55%, starting from 1 January 2025. TB. Which means that an official earning Rs 100,000 per month will now receive an additional Rs 55,000 to compensate for rising prices. Why should they care? "Manufacturers of consumer goods - from packaged foods and beverages to detergent and paint - are expected to benefit from the fall in crude oil price, as it would make raw materials cheaper and boost their profit margins, providing some relief amid a protracted slowdown in urban consumption." ET. They are not looking to pass on the benefits of cheaper raw materials to consumers. Why should they? Higher profits mean higher bonuses. As the RBI cuts its interest rates, banks will reduce interest on savings and fixed deposits, hitting people who rely on interest on savings for their daily expenses. Defaults, or non-performing assets (NPAs), on credit cards rose 28.42% YoY to Rs 67.42 billion in 2024, up 500% from Rs 11.08 billion in 2020. TIE. The rate of interest on outstanding balance in credit cards is 35%-40% per annum Axis Bank. This does not fall with RBI's interest rate. Hotmail founder Sabeer Bhatia said that India's GDP calculation is wrong, saying "it overstates economic output by focusing on monetary transactions instead of actual work done." ET. More money for people to spend. Production will increase. And, also GDP.  

Bo waits for Xi.

"In 1947, the US led 23 nations into signing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)." "On 2 April, in a speech that lasted 48 minutes, US President Donald Trump effectively shredded this multilateral trading system and signaled a fundamental shift in US trade policy," wrote N Madhavan. Tariffs will only increase prices and will not create jobs. That is the most polite criticism of Trump. Instead of 'Liberation Day' it would be better to call it 'Recession Day' or 'Economic Stupidity Day', wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Trump "seeks to destroy the global economic order created by the US after World War 2," and "more than one billion people were lifted out of poverty in India and China alone." We do not recall Mr Aiyar using such language when customs duty started going up in the 2018 Budget to help Mr Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' policy. Mint, only to be extended to 75 imported items in the Budget 2019. India Today. Trump's duty is to the US and not to make China and India richer. At the Bretton Woods Conference the US dollar was fixed to gold at a rate of $35 to one ounce of gold. mises.org. In 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the gold standard, the so-called 'Nixon Shock', and imposed a 10% surcharge on import tariffs. (wikipedia). That has been blamed for the stagflation of the 1970s. "India may still meet its 6.3%-6.8% target growth projection for the 2025/26 fiscal year...if oil prices stay below $70 a barrel, government officials said." Reuters. "No other country comes close to matching China's annual sales of more than $400 billion to the United States each year." In 2024, China racked up a trade surplus of over $295 billion with the US. census.gov. "Kaiyuan Securities expects the new tariffs could slash Chinese exports to the US by 30%, cut overall exports by more than 4.5% and drag economic growth by 1.3 percentage points." Reuters. In retaliation, "China said...it will impose reciprocal 34% tariffs on all imports from the US from April 10." CNN. And in reply, "Donald Trump has announced an additional 50% tariff on China less than 48 hours after Beijing announced tit-for-tat 34% tariff on the US." "It now takes US' tariff on all Chinese goods to an all-time high of 84%. NDTV. China called it "a mistake on top of a mistake" and "the American side's blackmailing nature." And said, "If the US insists on having its way, China will fight to the end." Reuters. If China thinks that it can compensate by increasing exports to the European Union it could be mistaken because in 2022 the EU imported $657.32 billion from China (TE). Clearly, China has been used to gaming the system and resents Trump for not accepting it. Still, it has not called him a"running dog" (wikipedia) or branded the US "paper tiger" and  "eunuchs" as it did in 2016 (NDTV). Is it because Xi Jinping is seriously worried? Trump can only lose an election but Xi Jinping could be toppled if the economy tanks. He must know what happened to Liu Shaoqi who was also president of China (wikipedia) and Bo Xilai (wikipedia) and many others will be salivating at the prospect of meeting Xi. A 'Trump Shock' to China. Pleasurable.