Monday, July 01, 2024

The innocence of Mr Aiyar.

'Atmanirbhar Bharat' means 'self-reliant India'. wikipedia. "India's atmanirbhar is far from pure chaebolisation. It is a jumbled mix of attracting FDI and backing India's Big Three - Tata, Ambani and Adani - to become national champions to take on the world," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. Chaebols are "any of the more than two dozen family-controlled conglomerates that dominate South Korea's economy." "Among the largest chaebols are Samsung, LG, Hyundai, and SK Group. In the early 21st century the Chaebols produced about two-thirds of South Korea's exports and attracted the greater part of the country's foreign capital inflows." Britannica. In Japan, "The four main zaibatsu were Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Yasuda." "In 1946, after the end of World War II, the Allied occupation authorities ordered the zaibatsu dissolved." Today the big business groups are loosely organized around the old zaibatsu like Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Mitsui groups. Britannica. So, "Will India succeed in its version of chaebolisation? Or will it go for the Latino crony way?" India wants its large companies as well as multinationals like Amazon and Walmart. Ambani's Reliance is the biggest exporter of petrochemical products in the world, Adani's acquisition of the Carmichael coal mine in Australia is highly profitable and Tata is "the biggest private sector employer in Britain, running TCS, Tata Steel Europe (formerly Corus) and Jaguar Land Rover." Aiyar. An enormous difference between India, South Korea and Japan, is population. In 2024, South Korea is estimated to have a population of 52 million (wikipedia) and Japan is estimated to have a population of about 124 million (wikipedia). By contrast, India's current population is almost 1,442 million. worldometer. South Korea had a fertility rate of just 0.72 in 2023 and 20% of its population is expected to be over 65 years of age by 2025. Japan's fertility rate is 1.4 and 28.7% of people were over 65 years of age in 2020. By contrast, 50% of Indians are below the age of 25 years and more than 65% below the age of 35. wikipedia. So, both South Korea and Japan have small, aging populations, with falling consumption, whereas India's gigantic youth population provides an enormous market at home. While South Korea had a positive trade balance of $35.488 billion in 2023 (World Bank) and Japan had a trade deficit of $38 billion in the year ended March 2024, (BS), India's total trade deficit in the last fiscal was $238.3 billion (BS). As for crony capitalism, short seller Hindenburg reported that the Adani Group was running "the largest con in corporate history". In its reply to SEBI's show cause notice, Hindenburg wrote, "Following our report, we were told that SEBI pressured brokers behind-the-scenes to close short positions in Adani under threat of expensive, perpetual investigations, effectively creating  buying pressure and setting a 'floor' for Adani stocks at a critical time." ET. "Hindenburg also alleged that SEBI's lack of mention of Kotak or any other Kotak board member may be meant to protect yet another powerful businessman from the prospect of scrutiny." ET.  Jamnagar Airport, which primarily handles Indian Air Force flights, was converted to an international airport from 25 February to 5 March to receive guests for the pre-wedding party of Mr Mukesh Ambani's son. The Wire. Can't get cronier than that. Mr Aiyar seems to be too innocent. And trusting.   

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