Thursday, July 04, 2024

Rocketing stocks.

"Indian benchmark indices continued their record-high run on Thursday (yesterday) for the second straight session. The Sensex rose 406 points to its new high of 80,392.64 while the broader Nifty gained 114.5 points to its peak of 24,401". Mint. The Sensex is at 79,557 points this morning. BSE. "Sensex hit the milestone of crossing 10000 on 7 February 2006. Since then, on average, it has taken 653 trading days to add each new 10,000 points." "The Sensex breached 70,000 on 14 December 2023" and it has taken only 138 trading days to reach 80,000. HT. Even small towns and semi-urban areas are joining the party. "West Bengal's North 24 Parganas home to the Sundarbans yet virtually unknown to many, has been among the biggest contributors of new stock market investors since Sept 2023." TOI. "Sundarbans is a mangrove area in the delta formed by the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers in the Bay of Bengal." wikipedia. Though foreign fund holdings in Indian markets have fallen to a historic low of 16% from a high of 24%, assets under management (AUM) of domestic mutual funds have soared to Rs 59 trillion from Rs 26 trillion in 5 years. TOI. Foreign investors have gained handsomely by selling booming Indian markets. "The relatively steady rupee over the last seven months has provided foreign investors a return that is almost on a par with local currency returns." The Sensex has gained 14.4% while the dollar has gained only 0.2% against the rupee in the last seven months so minimal losses in currency conversion. TOI. "The shift is being fueled by three interconnected mega trends. An expansion of the middle class, rising incomes within this demographic and the youthful profile of India's population. Trust and financial literacy are reinforcing this trend," wrote Dhiraj Relli. Until the next scam, that is. "Looking beneath hood, economy is powering along on one-and-a-half cylinders - strong public investment and a sustained pickup in premium consumption." But, with private consumption "At less than 4% growth in the latest GDP numbers, the largest cylinder is stuttering." "There just isn't enough aggregate demand to absorb existing factory capacities." And, "China has enough capacity to fill global demand. There is competitive Chinese supply at every price point available, eroding pricing power of Indian manufacturers," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. Private capital formation in manufacturing fell from 4.6% in FY12 to 3.2% in FY19, up a tad to 3.4% in FY23. The fall is "primarily attributable to reduced investments in machinery and equipment, the biggest sign of manufacturing capacity addition, wrote Renu Kohli & Kritima Bhapta. Markets love the BJP-led NDA. Because the BJP formalized the economy through demonetization in 2016 (wikipedia), and goods and services tax (GST) in 2017 (cleartax.in), and reduced corporate tax rates in September 2019. Hence, between 2018-19 and 2022-23, net sales of 5,000 listed companies "went up 52%, corporate taxes paid went up only 36% and their net profit rose sharply by 187%," wrote Vivek Kaul. In 2020, nearly 90% of workers worked in the informal sector. Mint. Formalization has shifted earnings from this sector to large companies. Weak demand, no private sector investment, no jobs, so poor consumption, leading to weak demand. But stock market booming. What's not to love about the BJP.   

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