Sunday, July 21, 2024

Gambling or slavery.

Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch...said the surge in futures and options trading volume has become a macro issue, according to a report." Mint. Because household savings are going into speculative trading rather than into capital formation. 'Capital formation' is the net accumulation of capital goods, such as equipment, tools, transportation assets, and electricity, during an accounting period for a particular country. Generally, the higher the capital formation of an economy, the faster the economy can grow its aggregate income. Investopedia. So, if people buy shares of a company, that money can be used for new investment or, if they buy fridges, cars or TVs, the increased sales lead to higher production and more jobs. Those scared of gambling are investing in the comparative safety of mutual funds. "Households are increasingly choosing capital markets over traditional banks for their savings, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said." "Governor Das indicated that banks must explore new methods to manage the gap between credit and deposits." While Indian banks have been struggling to attract deposits, customers have been borrowing heavily to buy homes and for other purposes. The credit-deposit ratio in the banking system is at its highest in at least 20 years." Mint. "Speaking at an SBI Mutual Fund event, Ms Buch expressed a concern that household savings are now going into speculative bets and added that the youth of the country is losing 'tonnes of money' in these (F&O) trades." ET. Why are people taking such risks? Because the RBI held its interest rate at 4% from 22 May 2020 to 4 May 2022 (Forbes) while the consumer price index (CPI) inflation was running at over 6%, reaching highs of 7.6% in October 2020 and 7.8% in April 2022 (RI). Even the inadequate increase of 40 basis points on 4 May 2022 was a panic reaction to the expected hike in US interest rates at the US Federal Reserve meeting on 5 May 2022 when it increased the Funds Rate by 50 basis points (Forbes). This means that the real interest rate, which is the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation (Investopedia) was severely negative. So, why allow prices to increase unchecked which hurts poor people? Because, high inflation increases tax collections as wages rise to compensate. Also, higher prices mean the value of the currency depreciates, thus reducing the value of debt. Since the government is the biggest borrower it is the biggest gainer from high inflation. Economics Help. A negative real interest rate hurts savers because the value of their capital is falling but is a bonanza for borrowers. Economics Help. Thus, the RBI was actively transferring savings of savers such as pensioners to the government. The RBI has found that 47 million new jobs were created in 2023-24. TOI. That would mean low real interest rates encouraged companies to increase investment from higher borrowing. 14 Indians rescused from cyber-slavery in Cambodia (NDTV), dozens of Indians rescued from farm slavery in Italy (BBC) and 20 Indians rescued from slave labor in Myanmar (TOI) in recent weeks. Who knows how many Indians are working as slaves all over the world. If our regulators justified their humongous salaries and served their country, Indians would not be reduced to gambling or slavery. Instead, they lecture us.

No comments: