Monday, July 22, 2024

Markets like short sellers.

"Foreign investments in Indian government bonds have climbed more than $1 billion in the two weeks since domestic sovereign debt was included in a JP Morgan index, adding to the $11 billion yield-influencing inflows since the inclusion was announced in September 2023." As a result, "So far in 2024, yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond has fallen 22 basis points to 6.96%." ET. In addition to being included in JP Morgan Chase & Co's index of emerging market bonds on 28 June 2024 (ET), "starting from 31 January 2025, the appropriate Indian government paper will also be added to Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Currency Government Index." What if there is a sell-out? "India's economy is too large, officials think, and these purchases too small to cause a major crisis if they were too reverse." Still, "As former UK Prime Minister Liz Trust's disastrous 2024 budget showed," "The price India's government will pay for lower borrowing costs is being accountable to a new set of critics: bond markets," wrote Mihir Sharma. Foreigners won't care that, "The Madras High Court has expressed displeasure over the manner in which the CBI conducted the investigation into the 2018 Tuticorin police firing against anti-Sterlite protesters in which 13 persons were killed. Observing that the investigation was not done in a fair manner, the court further observed that 'we believe that the police firing was a predetermined act carried out at the behest of an industrialist'." ET. If the brutal Indian government blows away 13, or 130, or 1,300 Indian citizens, foreigners won't care a jot. However, they will care very much if they stand to lose 13 cents, let alone 13 dollars, and will want to know why. Foreigners will want to know the amount of subsidy on second-class AC seats since 2014 as "these fares haven't been adjusted for rising fuel costs." "Transparency often spells trouble for an administration. Questions begin to be asked, accountability goes up, narratives can't easily be divorced from ground reality. Governments don't like answering uncomfortable questions and display an inherent weakness for opacity," wrote Puja Mehra. For instance, "While we know how much crude oil is imported every month and what it costs us per barrel/tonne, sadly the government's response to queries about the WPT (Windfall Profit Tax) it collects from our oil companies is a long expected lines - delay, dodge and delude," wrote Venkatesh Nayak. In 2022-23, it was Rs 1.47 trillion and expected to rise to Rs 1.52 trillion in this fiscal. Indian businesses follow government cues. In 2019, "India lost a staggering USD 13 billion, over Rs 900 billion, to trade misinvoicing, equivalent to 5.5% of the country's revenue collections in 2016, according to a report by a US-based think tank Global Financial Integrity." ET. Which means, "Indian companies with global operations need to have crisis management plans in place given the rise in the number of short sellers, said William J Stellmach. Similarly, bond markets can short sell the government. The solution is simple. Don't cheat the people, don't hide facts and don't tell lies. But, it's habit. Instinctive.     

No comments: