Friday, July 12, 2024

Political babies.

"Thirty-one out of 36 states and Union Territories in India have achieved the replacement level of fertility rate of 2.1. However, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Jharkhand, Meghalaya, an Manipur continue to have higher than desired fertility rates." About 65% of India's population is within the reproductive age group. ET. "The single most important factor in population growth is the total fertility rate (TFR). If, on average, women give birth to 2.1 children and these children survive to the age of 15, any given woman will have replaced herself and her partner upon death. A TFR of 2.1 is known as the replacement rate." Britannica. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-21, Gujarat, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh also had a TFR slightly higher than 2.1. wikipedia.  TFR also depends on rates of immigration and emigration, as well as child mortality rates. In 2022, mortality rates for children under the age of 5 years varied from a low 2 per 1,000 live births in Finland, Japan, Norway and Singapore to a high of 117 in Niger, 107 in Nigeria, 106 in Somalia and 103 in Chad. World Bank. Clearly, those with high child mortality rates will need a TFR over 2.1 to keep their population stable. India's under-5 child mortality rate was 29 per 1,000 live births in 2022. However, it is not enough to keep children alive, they need proper nutrition for healthy growth and quality education for economic growth. A study using data from the NHFS 2019-21 found that the prevalence of "zero-food" children in India - that is children who have consumed no food at all in a span of 24 hours - is at 19.3%, the third highest after Guinea's 21.8% and Mali's 20.5%. The Wire. As per the NHFS-5, the rate of malnutrition has come down in India. For children under 5 years of age, stunting has reduced from 38.4% to 35.5%, wasting from 21.0% to 19.3% and underweight from 35.8% to 32.1%. "Malnutrition among women aged 15-49 years has also reduced from 22.9% to 18.7%." pib.gov.in. However, detailed information can come only from a census. wikipedia. Starting in 1881, "For the next 130 years, after independence and through wars and other crises, India kept its date with the census - once a decade, hundreds of thousands of enumerators visited every household in the country to gather information about people's jobs, families, economic conditions, migration status and socio-cultural characteristics, among other parameters." BBC. The 2021 census was postponed because of Covid-19. The next census could result in delimitation, which is redrawing of boundaries of parliamentary constituencies. If such an exercise is carried out, the number of members of parliament from UP will rise from 80 to 143 and those of Bihar would nearly double from 40 to 79. Conversely, "southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu would lose 16 seats". CNBC. It is grossly unfair that UP and Bihar should be rewarded for higher fertility rates. Fertility rates are not just about babies and children. It's about politics. Could get dirty.  

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