Tuesday, July 02, 2024

Increased robust growth.

"India's economy ended the first quarter on a strong note with manufacturing sector activity rebounding in June after two months of deceleration," and "Passenger car sales rose further in the month from last year's high base." ET. The headline reads "strong wicket" to create a subliminal feelgood effect after India's victory in the Men's T20 World Cup at West Indies on 29 June. wikipedia. "India's manufacturing activity witnessed a rebound owing to increased robust demand leading to the fastest rate of hiring in more than 19 years. This comes despite inflationary pressures remaining elevated." "Increased robust" and "fastest rate" for more subliminal effect. "The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P global rose to 58.3 in June" from 57.5 in May. ET. "Central and state governments collected Rs 1.74 trillion in Goods and Services Tax (GST) receipts in June, 7.74% more than the proceeds from the indirect tax a year ago." Sadly, this was less than the Rs 2.1 trillion squeeze in April. Mint. "The GST collections have been so robust over the past year or so that it has prompted the Ministry of Finance to discontinue issuing monthly press releases of the data." Because, "The high collections were breeding resentment among the public, who felt the government was collecting too much tax." People are no fools. GST is collected on the price of goods and services and the higher the prices, the higher will be the collections. India's CPI inflation has been consistently above the RBI mandate of 4% by the government. ET. Annual inflation was 6.6% in 2020, 5.1% in 2021, 6.7% in 2022 and 5.7% in 2023. rateinflation.com. The year-on-year CPI inflation rate was 4.75% in May. pib.gov.in. Even as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its inflation projection at 4.5% for 2024-25 (Mint), two members of the MPC actually voted for a reduction in the RBI's policy rate, which they felt is too high (ET). They want to stimulate growth. Of what? "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY 2023-24 as compared to a growth rate of 7.0% in FY 2022-23." pib.gov.in. The Indian Economy is projected to grow at 7% in the current financial year, April-March, according to the RBI's annual report. ET. In the event, the RBI left its policy rate at 6.5% for the 7th successive time. ET. "Indian households spent 18% more in the March quarter of 2024 than in the June quarter of 2022, on account of rising inflation, market research firm Kantor said." Mint. "Household debt levels need close monitoring while financial liabilities have risen," as "Overall household savings have declined to 18.4% of GDP in FY23, down from the average of 20% of GDP seen between 2013-22," and "net financial savings declined to 5.3% of GDP in FY23, down from an average of 8% in 2023-22." ET. What is the point in monitoring household debts, as people borrow to pay for necessities, if they are going to do nothing. Or even make it worse by reducing rates. If it's a joke, it's in poor taste. Just hide GST figures.

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