Wednesday, July 03, 2024
Certified completely exposed.
Tuesday, July 02, 2024
Increased robust growth.
"India's economy ended the first quarter on a strong note with manufacturing sector activity rebounding in June after two months of deceleration," and "Passenger car sales rose further in the month from last year's high base." ET. The headline reads "strong wicket" to create a subliminal feelgood effect after India's victory in the Men's T20 World Cup at West Indies on 29 June. wikipedia. "India's manufacturing activity witnessed a rebound owing to increased robust demand leading to the fastest rate of hiring in more than 19 years. This comes despite inflationary pressures remaining elevated." "Increased robust" and "fastest rate" for more subliminal effect. "The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P global rose to 58.3 in June" from 57.5 in May. ET. "Central and state governments collected Rs 1.74 trillion in Goods and Services Tax (GST) receipts in June, 7.74% more than the proceeds from the indirect tax a year ago." Sadly, this was less than the Rs 2.1 trillion squeeze in April. Mint. "The GST collections have been so robust over the past year or so that it has prompted the Ministry of Finance to discontinue issuing monthly press releases of the data." Because, "The high collections were breeding resentment among the public, who felt the government was collecting too much tax." People are no fools. GST is collected on the price of goods and services and the higher the prices, the higher will be the collections. India's CPI inflation has been consistently above the RBI mandate of 4% by the government. ET. Annual inflation was 6.6% in 2020, 5.1% in 2021, 6.7% in 2022 and 5.7% in 2023. rateinflation.com. The year-on-year CPI inflation rate was 4.75% in May. pib.gov.in. Even as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its inflation projection at 4.5% for 2024-25 (Mint), two members of the MPC actually voted for a reduction in the RBI's policy rate, which they felt is too high (ET). They want to stimulate growth. Of what? "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY 2023-24 as compared to a growth rate of 7.0% in FY 2022-23." pib.gov.in. The Indian Economy is projected to grow at 7% in the current financial year, April-March, according to the RBI's annual report. ET. In the event, the RBI left its policy rate at 6.5% for the 7th successive time. ET. "Indian households spent 18% more in the March quarter of 2024 than in the June quarter of 2022, on account of rising inflation, market research firm Kantor said." Mint. "Household debt levels need close monitoring while financial liabilities have risen," as "Overall household savings have declined to 18.4% of GDP in FY23, down from the average of 20% of GDP seen between 2013-22," and "net financial savings declined to 5.3% of GDP in FY23, down from an average of 8% in 2023-22." ET. What is the point in monitoring household debts, as people borrow to pay for necessities, if they are going to do nothing. Or even make it worse by reducing rates. If it's a joke, it's in poor taste. Just hide GST figures.
Monday, July 01, 2024
The innocence of Mr Aiyar.
'Atmanirbhar Bharat' means 'self-reliant India'. wikipedia. "India's atmanirbhar is far from pure chaebolisation. It is a jumbled mix of attracting FDI and backing India's Big Three - Tata, Ambani and Adani - to become national champions to take on the world," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. Chaebols are "any of the more than two dozen family-controlled conglomerates that dominate South Korea's economy." "Among the largest chaebols are Samsung, LG, Hyundai, and SK Group. In the early 21st century the Chaebols produced about two-thirds of South Korea's exports and attracted the greater part of the country's foreign capital inflows." Britannica. In Japan, "The four main zaibatsu were Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Yasuda." "In 1946, after the end of World War II, the Allied occupation authorities ordered the zaibatsu dissolved." Today the big business groups are loosely organized around the old zaibatsu like Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Mitsui groups. Britannica. So, "Will India succeed in its version of chaebolisation? Or will it go for the Latino crony way?" India wants its large companies as well as multinationals like Amazon and Walmart. Ambani's Reliance is the biggest exporter of petrochemical products in the world, Adani's acquisition of the Carmichael coal mine in Australia is highly profitable and Tata is "the biggest private sector employer in Britain, running TCS, Tata Steel Europe (formerly Corus) and Jaguar Land Rover." Aiyar. An enormous difference between India, South Korea and Japan, is population. In 2024, South Korea is estimated to have a population of 52 million (wikipedia) and Japan is estimated to have a population of about 124 million (wikipedia). By contrast, India's current population is almost 1,442 million. worldometer. South Korea had a fertility rate of just 0.72 in 2023 and 20% of its population is expected to be over 65 years of age by 2025. Japan's fertility rate is 1.4 and 28.7% of people were over 65 years of age in 2020. By contrast, 50% of Indians are below the age of 25 years and more than 65% below the age of 35. wikipedia. So, both South Korea and Japan have small, aging populations, with falling consumption, whereas India's gigantic youth population provides an enormous market at home. While South Korea had a positive trade balance of $35.488 billion in 2023 (World Bank) and Japan had a trade deficit of $38 billion in the year ended March 2024, (BS), India's total trade deficit in the last fiscal was $238.3 billion (BS). As for crony capitalism, short seller Hindenburg reported that the Adani Group was running "the largest con in corporate history". In its reply to SEBI's show cause notice, Hindenburg wrote, "Following our report, we were told that SEBI pressured brokers behind-the-scenes to close short positions in Adani under threat of expensive, perpetual investigations, effectively creating buying pressure and setting a 'floor' for Adani stocks at a critical time." ET. "Hindenburg also alleged that SEBI's lack of mention of Kotak or any other Kotak board member may be meant to protect yet another powerful businessman from the prospect of scrutiny." ET. Jamnagar Airport, which primarily handles Indian Air Force flights, was converted to an international airport from 25 February to 5 March to receive guests for the pre-wedding party of Mr Mukesh Ambani's son. The Wire. Can't get cronier than that. Mr Aiyar seems to be too innocent. And trusting.