Thursday, May 16, 2024

The non-tariff barriers.

"Urban unemployment declined to 6.7% in the last quarter of FY24 compared with 6.8% in Q4 FY23, according to periodic labour force survey (PLFS) data." Surely, this should be statistically insignificant. "The Indian Economy is likely to grow 7.6% in FY24." Female labour force participation rate (LFPR), which is the number of women working or looking for work, rising to its highest level of 25.6% since 2017. The proportion of self-employed, which includes people working without wages, rose to 40.5% from 39.5% last year. This dismal picture is despite "India's economy likely expanded at 8% through fiscal year 2024 (FY24), and growth in the current year is projected at 7%, V Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser to the government said." Mint. "India's total goods exports in FY24 fell 3.1% to $437 billion from $451 billion in the previous fiscal." However, orders for leather goods, footwear and apparel have increased by 10%. ET. "India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $19.1 billion in April," with exports increasing marginally to $34.99 billion, an increase of 1.6% over $34.61 billion in April 2023, while imports surged to $54.09 billion, an increase of 10% over $49.06 billion in April 2023. ABP. After Singapore and Hong Kong, Nepal has also banned Indian spices from Everest and MDH because of unacceptable levels of ethylene oxide. NDTV. "Over 400 products were flagged for various other deadly contaminations in EU countries, ranging from heavy metals like lead, mercury and cadmium to pesticides and fungicides being above permissible levels." DH. The European Union is notorious for using non-tariff barriers on imports while allowing exports almost freely. WITS. "If India has to become a developed country, it must push its exports because there is only so much it can consume domestically." But, "Just as India tries to tap a huge export opportunity...it also faces strong challenges ranging from quality and trade restrictions. Two years ago, India-made cough syrups were linked to deaths of children in several countries." Now diamond exports are facing restrictions because of sanctions on Russia. From 1 January 2026, Europe's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will hit exports of steel, cement, fertiliser, aluminium and hydrocarbon products. Exports of coffee, leather hides and paperboard may be hurt by EU deforestation regulations adopted in May 2023. ET. Unfortunately, India needs to export to the EU because its GDP at current prices is $18.98 billion US, GDP per capita is $42.44 and has a population of 447.13 million. imf.org. Trade with EU gives access to 27 member countries (wikipedia) with a fairly sizable combined population with very high buying power. With a captive population of 1,440 million people right here at home (worldometer), Indian businesses are quite happy to earn huge profits by selling offal at high prices. That means our exports are not wanted abroad while Indians prefer to buy cheaper imports with better quality. Increasing exports will take strict rules, effective regulators, respecting Indians and reducing taxes. Will they do it? Unlikely. Very.   

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