Sunday, May 26, 2024

Alchemy or Midas Touch.

"Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned aggressive sellers in Indian markets ever since reducing their buying momentum with the onset of the new fiscal 2024-25 (FY25)." "From January to May so far, they have net sold around Rs 120,000 crore (Rs 1.2 trillion) in Indian markets. This is the secondary market outflow." Mint. And yet, "Domestic stocks staged a strong upmove in Thursday's (23 May) trade to hit their record highs." "The 30-share BSE Sensex pack rallied 1,279 points to hit an all-time high of 75,500, while the broader NSE Nifty index moved over 396 points to trade at a fresh record peak of 22,994." BT. "The share of domestic institutional investors (DIIs), with net inflows of Rs 1,08,434 crore (Rs 1.084 trillion), increased to 16.05% from 15.96% during the December-March FY24 quarter, according to Prime Database. On the other hand, the share of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) declined to an 11-year low of 17.68% as on March 31, 2024, down by 51 bps (basis points) from 18.19% on December 31, 2023." News18. The combined investment of High Net Worth (HNI) individuals and retail investors fell to 9.50% from 9.64%. Thus, domestic investments in Indian stock markets are well above those of foreign ones. The US dollar has been trading at over 83.30 through April and May (Investing.com), reaching a high of 83.669 INR to one dollar on 16 April 2024. Exchange Rates. The exchange rate is 83.04 INR to one dollar today. xe.com. A stronger rupee means that foreign investors are making handsome profits when converting their sales to dollars. "India's forex reserves jumped USD 4.549 billion to a new all-time high of USD 648.7 billion for the week ended May17, the Reserve Bank (RBI) said." BS. In addition, "From January to April 2024, the RBI added 24 tonnes of gold to its reserves," so that gold holdings rose to 827.69 tonnes as of 26 April. TOI. The RBI has been buying gold despite its price shooting up to over Rs 76,000 per 10 grams of 24 karat gold. Bankbazaar. The RBI has declared a dividend of Rs 2.1 trillion to the government for 2023-24. This has resulted from interest from bonds, from lending money to banks and from the sale of foreign currencies. TOI. The RBI also increased the Contingency Risk Buffer (CRB) to 6.5% in FY24. BS. "The contingency risk buffer is a specific provision fund kept by the central bank primarily to be used during any unexpected and unforeseen contingencies." MC. "Rs 2.1 trillion is a phenomenal amount, 0.7% of GDP or something like that," said economist Swaminathan Aiyar. The increase in CRB indicates that "the RBI is aware that there is a chance of some kind of financial storm in markets, which may require RBI intervention on a much larger scale than hitherto." ET. What it boils down to is that the RBI has bought 24 tonnes of gold, allowed FPIs to repatriate dollars, increased its forex holdings to record level, dished out a record amount of cash to the government, increased its CRB and yet the rupee is becoming stronger. The RBI must have the Midas Touch (wikipedia) or knows Alchemy (wikipedia). Other central banks must be green with envy. 

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