Thursday, May 30, 2024

Market changes are permanent.

"The number of unique investors in Indian equity markets has nearly tripled since 2020 to 90 million." The number of investors in mutual funds "has more than doubled from 21 million as of December 2020 to 45 million as of April 2024." "This shift is being fueled by three interconnected mega trends: An expansion of the middle class, rising incomes within this demographic and the youthful profile of India's population," wrote Dhiraj Relli. Even better, "The notional volume of equity derivative trading in India reached $6 trillion in early February, a six-fold surge since the start of 2022, before easing recently." "The surge has come despite repeated warnings from the country's securities market regulator, whose own studies suggested that 90% of active retail traders lose money trading derivative contracts." ET. To put it in perspective, India's GDP is estimated at around $4.112 trillion in 2024. Forbes. "Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nagesaran has flagged household savings getting invested in futures and options trade, stressing for a rethink on sachetisation of such trades because a different financial literacy is needed. Sachetisation refers to process of making financial products and services available in smaller, more manageable packs." BT.  "India's youth continue to grapple with soaring unemployment rates, with nearly 83% of the jobless population belonging to this demographic, as per India Employment Report 2024 jointly published by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD). The report underscores a concerning trend where the proportion of educated young people, possessing at least secondary education, among the total unemployed youth has nearly doubled from 35.2% in 2000 to 65.7% in 2022." Mint. In its annual report, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that the Indian economy "expanded at a robust pace in 2023-24 (April 2023 to March 2024 financial year), with real GDP growth accelerating to 7.6% from 7% in the previous year - the third consecutive year of 7% or above growth pace." BS. "However, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2019-20 to 2023-24 was 4.3%, compared with 7.4% in the five-year period ending 2018-19," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Retail investors don't care. Although foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have sold stocks worth Rs 355.27 billion, domestic institutional investors (DII) have invested Rs 417.20 billion, so that both the Nifty and the Sensex have registered record highs during this month. Mint. The markets are pricing in a victory for the BJP. Why do markets love the BJP? Because, from 2018-19 to 2022-23, net sales of the top 5,000 companies went up by 52% while corporate taxes increased by only 36% resulting in profits rising sharply by 187%. Lower corporate tax rates are increasing profits and the share prices, wrote Vivek Kaul. Punters love it. "As favorable government policies are driving growth in many companies, investors have now coined a new category - Modi stocks - to beyond the existing heroes of Dalal Street like Adani, Ambani or Tata." ET. What if Mr Modi loses? Will all this just vanish?

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