Friday, May 17, 2024

Forced by JP Morgan Chase.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to transfer approximately Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) to the government in FY25," and "This projection represents a slight increase from Rs 874 billion transferred in the previous fiscal year." ET. RBI dividends have been soaring since 2014 when this BJP government first came to power. It was Rs 1.761 trillion in 2019 and Rs 991 billion for a 9-month period in 2021. The Wire. In December 2018, then Governor of the RBI, Urjit Patel resigned and Deputy Governor Viral Acharya issued an ominous warning, "Governments that do not respect central bank independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of financial markets, ignite economic fire, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution." BBC. "JP Morgan Chase & Co has said it is on track to include India in its emerging market debt index from June." "In September 2023, JP Morgan had announced that it would include India in its emerging market bond index starting in June, where it will have a maximum weight of 10%." "Since the JP Morgan announcement, Indian sovereign bonds have seen about $8 billion of inflows into the so-called Fully Accessible Route securities, Bloomberg reported." Mint. "The government is considering a change in the base year for key economic indices to FY23, as well as revamp of several datasets, to better capture structural changes in the economy," as "The base year provides a reference point for measuring changes in economic variables and comparing relative performances of indicators over time." "For instance, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is currently calculated with reference to FY12 prices." ET. The real rate of growth of GDP is calculated by subtracting a deflator from the nominal growth figure, which is derived from price inflation compared to the base year. Investopedia. The consumer price index (CPI) basket has changed, since consumers are spending less on food (Reuters), while vanaspati (hydrogenated vegetable oils) still plays a large part in the wholesale price index (WPI) even though consumption has halved (ET). Inclusion in the index could lead to inflows of $20-$30 billion into Indian government bonds, which will drive prices up and reduce yields. But, investors will look for much higher yields on Indian bonds than on US Treasuries to earn a profit after accounting for devaluation of the rupee against the US dollar. Also, "foreign money coming into Indian bonds can also leave fast," and "the inclusion will lead to increasing scrutiny of the Indian economy, in particular the public finances of the Centre and state governments," wrote Vivek Kaul. Maybe, for the first time since 2014, we, the citizens of India, will get some real information about our economy and not some illusion. Courtesy of foreigners.

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