Sunday, May 19, 2024

Remains to be seen.

"Soon after the opposition shared a video of a youth allegedly voting for BJP candidate several times, the Election Commission of India (ECI), Uttar Pradesh has directed the concerned District Election Officer to take prompt and effective action." However, as a fig leaf (wikipedia), this is totally inadequate. "A month has elapsed since Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi's Banswara speech" in which "the PM blatantly breached the model code of conduct as well as the Representation of People Act," but the ECI has done nothing. "No wonder Ramachandra Guha, one of our highly regarded historians and an astute public commentator, says the present three commissioners have brought 'dishonor and disgrace' to the institution. He adds when the history of the Commission is written, they will be remembered as among the worst," wrote Karan Thapar. On 18 May, "An analysis of turnout numbers put out by ECI late night of the day of polling in each phase and the latest updated numbers show that the difference could be nearly 1.07 crore (10.7 million) votes over the first four phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. That's an average of 28,000 votes per constituency for the 379 that have finished polling." TOI. In 2019, the BJP won at least 27 seats with margins less than 28,000. Mr BP Saroj won by a margin of just 181 votes. The Wire. If the election turns out to be close, these 10.7 million excess votes could decide which group gets to govern India for the next five years. "Supreme Court...sought Election Commission's response to the application of an NGO, Association of Democratic Reforms, expressing apprehension about possible replacement of electronic voting machines citing the big increase in final voting percentage figures days after polling." TOI. The fear is that the actual voting machines might have been replaced by doctored machines to favor a certain party. In 2019, "The petitioners pointed out in the Supreme Court that there were as many as six seats where the discrepancy in votes was higher than the winning margin," "for instance, in Anantnag, votes counted in EVMs (Electronic Voting Machines) exceeded voter turnout by 29,746 votes, while the winning margin was only 6,676 votes." The Wire. "When the election started, the dominant theme of Modi's campaign speeches was '400 paar', which meant that the BJP's goal was to cross 400 seats." By 27 April, "'400 paar' was replaced by 'Muslim' and 'minorities' in Modi's speeches." "In a speech recently, he alleged that the two business tycoons, Adani and Ambani, sent loads of 'black money in a tempo (a small truck)' to the Congress Party," wrote Praveen Chakravarty. This is where the ECI should come in. "Western media's already out to undermine legitimacy of a Modi win," complained Swapan Dasgupta. Western media is only echoing Indians who think the election is being stolen. Successfully or not, remains to be seen. 

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