Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Talk to the Iranians directly.

"Iran yesterday warned that if Tehran is prevented from selling oil, no other country in the region would be able to do so either, signaling the possibility of a broader disruption to energy supplies." Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, "the security of regional energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz depends on the absence of US forces." ET. "On 8 April 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan." "On 21 April, President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. On 8 July, Trump announced that the ceasefire is over." wikipedia. This was because, "Despite the memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached in June 2026," "Iran sought to assert hegemonic control over the strait and eventually collect fees on ships passing through." "It followed up on its threats by firing at multiple ships, including three commercial vessels on July 6-7." The US was forced to retaliate. Britannica. Iran may be overplaying its hand. "The Strait is valuable while the traffic through it increases day by day, not when it decreases," Ghalibaf said. Iran may cause problems in the short term but other Gulf states are already planning pipelines to bypass the strait. "Oil pipelines are straightforward engineering projects, and can be built at what feels like lightning speed compared with other infrastructure." "Abu Dhabi is already moving ahead; once its half-built new pipeline, with a capacity of about a 1.5 million barrels per day, enters operation by the end of 2027, it will reduce the amount of oil that needs to cross Hormuz to about 10.5 million barrels." ET. Despite Iran's efforts the international price of oil has not risen catastrophically. Because, "When the bombing began 41/2 months ago, the world was already awash in oil. Add to that the coordinated release of brimming reserves," and China staying on the sidelines. "Meanwhile, two major oil producers in the Middle East began to make more use of cross-desert pipelines that avoid the fraught strait altogether." ET. Iran's proxy, the Houthis, "who control areas near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the opposite end of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz, said on 20 July they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in what some analysts have viewed as a tactical move by Iran to seek leverage." Reuters. "At least seven oil tankers have made U-turns close to Yemen since the Iran-linked Houthi group announced a 'maritime embargo' against Saudi Arabia,...ship-tracking data show." BBC. The US has issued fresh sanctions targeting "Ali Ansari, an Iranian banker and businessman based in Dubai. "The Treasury said Ansari had diverted publicly funded wealth into an extensive overseas portfolio of real estate and commercial holdings to enrich himself, government elites and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)." Reuters. On 6 July, "Tens of millions of barrels of Iranian oil already on tankers have been left in limbo after the US walked back a waiver," and "There are around 63 million barrels of oil currently on the water, either in transit or idling, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Vortexa data." ET. Having killed over 30,000 civilian protesters in January 2026 (wikipedia), the hardliners in Iran might feel that they cannot afford to be seen to be yielding any advantage to the US. International pressure on the US will mount by the day, while they have nothing to lose. Has the US been talking to the Iranian people? If not, they should use a Persian Lord Haw-Haw, who was also an American (wikipedia) to tell Iranians over the radio how the hardliners are preventing peace and prosperity. The phrase Allahu Akbar means 'God is Greatest' (jibreel.app). When Mojtaba Khamenei claims to be Supreme Leader (wikipedia) he is making himself the equal to or greater than Allah. Which makes him an 'Al Murtadu' meaning an 'Apostate', and an apostate deserves the death punishment in Islam (islamqa.info). By killing Muslims the IRGC and Basij have become 'Takfiri'  (wikipedia) and also deserve to be punished. A few machine pistols and ammunition in the right hands could also help. The US should quickly win the war, instead of playing with firecrackers. Finish it. 

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