Playing with percentages.

"Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 before edging up to 2.8% in 2027, with India also set to 'lose a step' amid broader moderation in activity, according to a Moody's Analytics report." "The report said the artificial intelligence investment cycle has emerged as the biggest counterweight  to the global slowdown." But, it has created a " 'K-shaped world economy' where countries and industries integrated into the technology value chain continue to outperform those grappling with higher energy costs and weaker demand." ET. "According to China's GDP growth report,...the country's economy expanded by 4.3% in the April-June quarter." ABP. Whereas, India's GDP grew at 7.8% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (January-March 2026) and by 7.7% in the full financial year 2025-2026. NDTV. India continues to remain one of the largest importers of Chinese goods. China's GDP at current prices was $19.5 trillion in 2025 (WB), so 4.3% of that comes to about $839 billion, while India's GDP at current prices was $4 trillion in 2025 (WB) and 7.8% of that would be $312 billion, less than half of what China added to its economy. India has helped generously. Our trade deficit with China was $116 billion in 2025-26 and will be higher this year. "In the first half of 2026, India's imports from China touched a record $79.41 billion." The Wire. The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) came into effect three days ago. "By granting zero-duty access on nearly 99% of India's exports, covering almost 100% of trade value, the CETA is expected to strengthen India's exports competitiveness." In 2025-26, India's merchandise exports to the UK was $13.44 billion, while imports were $11.68 billion giving a surplus of $1.765 billion. In services, India exported worth $21.66 billion and imported $13.78 billion, giving a surplus of $7.88 billion. pib.gov.in. "Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), argues that while free trade agreements (FTAs) can enable market access, they are no substitute for a strong manufacturing base." "India must shift its focus from tariff negotiations to domestic competitiveness." Imports from our newer FTA partners, Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Switzerland are rising twice as fast as exports because developed economies already maintain low import tariffs. ET. "This decade, a net total of 6,75,000 people emigrated each year, up from 3,25,000 in the 2010s." "A chunk of this outflow from India is 'brain drain', including skilled workers and university students, exactly the talents India needs to compete in advanced fields." At the same time foreign direct investment (FDI) has been weak. FDI has surged to 4% of GDP in Vietnam, but "That figure never surpassed 1.5% in India, and it is now just 0.1%, which is one-sixth of the emerging market average," wrote Ruchir Sharma. In addition, "India's R&D expenditure remains structurally low. In 2023, it stood at 0.6% of GDP,...and has been stuck in a narrow 0.6-0.9% for more than three decades." South Korea and Israel spend 4% of GDP, the US spends 3.5% and China spends 2.6%. "India's industrial R&D expenditure in 2023 was $7.4 billion." Nvidia spends about that much while Alphabet spends five times as much, wrote Prof Saumitra Bhaduri. All of this means that the Indian economy is unable to create jobs. "The Union government had inherited a youth unemployment rate (UR) of 2.2% (2012 data). By 2017-18, this tripled to 6.1%, the highest in 45 years. The youth UR also tripled to 18% over that period." Shockingly, 40% of all youth (15-29 years) in the workforce are unpaid family labor," wrote Profs Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida. GDP is growing and so are unemployment and trade deficits. Which to celebrate?