Friday, July 03, 2026

Stop restricting foreigners.

"India's economy remains on a sustained growth path supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, government officials said." "The government has maintained its emphasis on capital expenditure despite an unexpected rise in fuel and fertiliser subsidies caused by a prolonged blockage at the Strait of Hormuz." "In April and May 2026,capital expenditure stood at Rs 2.51 trillion compared to Rs 2.21 trillion during the same period last year, registering a 14% jump." HT. "India's gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose 13.9% year-on-year to Rs 1,94,812 crore (Rs 1.95 trillion) in June 2026, driven largely by a sharp increase in tax revenues from imports, according to provisional data." "Total GST refunds increased 29.1% to Rs 324.36 billion in June 2026." From April to June, "gross GST collections reached 6,31,699 crore (Rs 6.32 trillion)." TOI. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $5.65 billion to $666.93 billionin the week ended 26 June," according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). ET. "India's external debt rose by $26.3 billion to $762.8 billion by March 2026," so that the external debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 20.8%. "Long-term external debt - with an original maturity of more than one year - stood at $613.5 billion at the end of March 2026," which is good, but "On a residual maturity basis, which includes long-term debt maturing within the next 12 months, short-term debt accounted for 42.9% of total external debt at the end of March 2026." BS. Which means $327.24 billion will need to be repaid within one year out of our reserves. Of course, India will earn more foreign exchange in that time, but should we be worried? Foreign tourists should be a lucrative source of foreign exchange. On paper, India received 18.89 million international tourists in 2023, higher than the pre-pandemic 17.91 million in 2019, but a large proportion were non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Bangladeshis, many of whom came for medical treatment. "On the economic front, foreign exchange earnings from tourism rose 31.5% to $28.08 billion but could rise to $50 billion by FY 27-28 through "policy vision and execution", thinks Dipak Deva, CEO of Travel Corporation India Ltd., wrote Varuni Khosla. "Net foreign portfolio (FPI) outflow hit Rs 2 trillion in 2026 recently, already 25% more than FPIs pulled out in all o 2025." One reason might the yield spread between US Treasuries and Indian government securities (G-Secs). "From a 21st century average of 350-400 basis points (bps), spreads have shrunk to 250 bps today." A second reason is the over-valuation of our equity markets, which is because of buying by domestic investors, resulting in a vicious cycle. "FPIs sell, saying Indian valuations are relatively high, but then domestic liquidity funds orderly exits without much price impacts," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. Foreign direct investment (FDI), which is for business, is considered more stable. In 2022, Amazon withdrew from bidding for the Indian Premier League cricket tournament. "Amazon has said its investment in India will surge past $35 billion by 2030, but much of that will go to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence (AI) - not e-commerce." Probably because India will not allow foreign companies to hold or control inventory. ET. However, Indian quick commerce companies operate from dark stores which stock a wide assortment of goods, from fresh vegetables to mobile phones. BT. We want foreigners to give us their money but we do not welcome them as tourists or as investors. So they take our money and run. Not surprising, is it?    

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