Wednesday, July 29, 2026

In a trap.

"Government...said that there were 576 individuals who had disclosed a gross income of over Rs 1 billion during the financial year 2024-25, with 161 added during the year." It is a small fraction of a total of  around 81 million who filed returns in 2024-25. "So far this year, 40 million returns have been filed for FY 2025-26 with 31 July being the deadline." TOI. According to the Income Tax Return Statistics for FY 13 and FY 23 released by the income tax department, the middle class with salary incomes between Rs 1 million and Rs 5 million "has substantially increased its share of salary income over the decade." "But, it is not earning more per person on an average. Average salaries grew from Rs 1.686 million in FY 13 to Rs 1.733 million in FY 23 - a less than 3% growth over the decade and an average annual rate of growth of less than 0.3% a year," "While nominal (real plus inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) grew at around 10.5% a year over the decade," wrote Monica Halan. The middle class and the super rich multiplying, so people must be getting wealthy. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s latest Financial Stability Report, India's household debt reached 47.8% of GDP by December 2025. "Non-housing retail loans now account for 58.4% of household borrowings." And, "Gold loans have grown at a compound annual rate of 42.4% since March 2024." Net household financial savings have fallen from 11% to 7% of GDP in 2024-25, and "it is clear that low-income borrowers are increasingly using fresh loans to pay for consumption or an installment of a refinanced old loan," wrote Ajit Ranade. "According to the latest World Bank report, India's PCI (per capita income) of $2,760 places it 139th out of 182 countries, and firmly within the 47 lower-middle-income countries (LMICs, PCI between $1,136 and $4,495)." "India's PCI recorded an annual growth rate of 11.39% during the Manmohan Singh decade," but has grown at only 5.21% during the 12 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wrote Subhash C Garg. "About 75% of the Indian labor force is self-employed. Compare that with data for the three Asian countries that have just been promoted into the upper middle-income club: Vietnam (53.3%), the Philippines (36.1%) and Sri Lanka (42.1%)." "As for China, only 37% of its labor force is self-employed." India has too few large enterprises as in China or "a deep layer of mid-sized, often family-owned, export-competitive firms - the Mittelstand - that employed millions and dominated global niches" as in Germany, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) of 2025 counts 79.2 million unincorporated non-agricultural establishments in India." "The Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) 2023-24, reports that the average registered factory employs 73 workers. ASUSE shows the average unincorporated establishment employs only 1.6 workers. This is near-solo work." This is survival work because of a lack of regular well-paid jobs, wrote Saumitra Bhaduri & Shubham Anand. Out of about 900 million people of working age, "In 2024, about 28 million unemployed educated youth were looking for jobs; and about 100 million educated youth (mostly women) have stopped looking. Another 150 million youth are currently in education or training who will look for work." According to the National Crime Bureau report for 2024, "unemployed people form a large category among suicide victims" and suicide among students, especially of Class 10, Class 12 and higher-education is rising, wrote Profs Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida. The population is ageing rapidly and so India risks being stuck in the middle-income trap (wikipedia). Which is great because politicians are dishing out unconditional cash transfers to women (BBC) to win elections. Students can commit suicide. They don't vote anyway.

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