Thursday, July 02, 2026

Statistics or color.

"US consumer spending showed little sign of buckling from the fallout of the Iran war, even as prices rose at the fastest pace in three years." "The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.1% from a year earlier, the most since April 2023, Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed." "Economists predict that the higher temperatures climb, the more bloated household costs like groceries may become." ET. "Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said...he will stick firmly to the US central bank's 2% inflation target and 'disappoint' anyone who expects loose monetary policy despite President Donald Trump's call for interest rate cuts." Reuters. "US job growth slowed more than expected in June and data for the prior month was revised lower, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, pointing to continued labor market stability." "A historically low level of layoffs is a big part of the strength in payrolls, which had not been mirrored in other labor market surveys, including hiring plans by small businesses." BS. "An unemployment rate of 5% is often considered full employment. This level of unemployment is enough to minimize inflation and allow workers to move between jobs, but those wanting full time jobs should be able to find it (even if it is not their preferred occupation)." A useful policy target is the "non-accelerating rate of unemployment (NAIRU), that represents the rate of unemployment that is consistent with a low, stable rate of price inflation". Investopedia. "The US economy expanded at a solid and unexpected 2.1% annual pace from January through March, the Commerce Department reported...in its first estimate of first-quarter growth." "The growth in gross domestic product - that nation's output of goods and services - marked a rebound from a sluggish 0.5% in the last three months of 2025 when a 43-day federal government shutdown weighed on the economy." msn.com. "The new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is unlikely to differ much from the late Alan Greenspan on how to deal with financial asset bubbles." "Some, including Warsh, defend the Fed's unwillingness to rein in the parabolic rise of often loss-making internet stocks in the late 1990s." "However, there are fewer apologists for the housing, mortgage and credit boom that followed that sharp easing." Reuters. "The measure, known as 'labor share of income', tracks how much of the nation's economic output flows to workers in the form of wages and salaries, as opposed to the share that goes to investors and corporations through profits, dividends and other capital income." "As of early 2026, American workers received 54.1% of national income," whereas "that figure topped 65% almost 80 years ago." CBS. "Tracking household incomes from from 1979 to 2024 using inflation-adjusted benchmarks," a study by Stephen J Rose and Scott Winship "finds that while the 'core' middle-class (defined as 250-500 percent of the Federal poverty guideline) shrank from 36% to 31%, this was largely because more families moved into higher income brackets. The upper-middle class, once just 10% of households in 1979, now accounts for 31%," while "the number of Americans living below middle-class thresholds has fallen from 54% in 1979 to 35% in 2024." The Print. So, does it mean that the share of the national income for American workers has fallen because the number of workers has shrunk as automation has increased productivity and the upper-middle class? Or that the investor class is doing well while the working class struggles? Perhaps it is a case of 'lies, damned lies and statistics' (wikipedia). Or, whether you are blue or red.      

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