Don't stay down.

"About 10 years ago, less than one in 10 of India's poorest rural households owned a bike or car; now close to half do." Ownership of refrigerators has jumped from 2.9% to 22.5% in the bottom 40% of rural India while it has increased from 20.9% to 57.9% in urban areas. Mobile phones are ubiquitous. TOI. About 97% of people in the age group 15-29 years own mobile phones and 95.5% of them own smartphones. Over 92% have accessed the internet in the last three months (pib.gov.in) and a majority of them have used the United Payments Interface (UPI) (Kotak) for online transactions. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023-24 shows that the monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) of only 0.5% of rural and 0.4% of urban households, at 2023-24 prices, are at the same level as the bottom 10% of the population in 2011-12. In rural areas most are found in the 10th to 40th percentiles while in urban areas most are in the 20th to 30th percentiles. "Even accounting for population growth, this implies that nearly 114.5 million people or about 8% of India's current estimated population have moved above the real consumption level that defined the bottom decile," wrote Ashish Kumar & Payal Seth. This is a real eyeopener. But how was it achieved? The large proportion may be because, "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025, indicating substantial expansion in social security coverage in the country, data released by statistics ministry showed." TOI. "Over the past decade, government cash transfers, particularly directed at women and farmers, have emerged as a major welfare tool for poverty. Federal and state allocations for such schemes grew more than 20 times from under $2bn in 2015 to nearly $30bn, according to data from Project DEEP," BBC. During elections, "Free electricity, free bus rides, loan waivers, cash transfers, subsidised meals, free liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders, free consumer appliances and restoration of pension schemes have become familiar features of electoral campaigns." Political parties try to outbid each other in making reckless promises, uninhibited by any worries about how to finance these handouts, such are the perks of power in India. "Many states have to depend on heavy borrowing because their revenues are insufficient to meet growing commitments." In time, interest payments on their debt become a major part of their budgets. NUS. Handouts may prevent poverty and even increase spending of the bottom 10% but they are not going to create wealth. Jobs with proper salaries will. "Last year, 11.8 million Indians in their 20s were unemployed and about 6.8 million of them had been job hunting for over a year." "In terms of overall unemployment rate, about 10% of young Indian adults in their 20s were unemployed last year. This does not include around 40% who were not even looking for a job," wrote Prof Vidya Mahambare & Asrar Alam. Not sure if consumers have the ability to spend, it is no surprise that Indian companies are reluctant to invest in new capacity despite higher earnings. "The aggregate net income of listed Indian firms is approaching 6% of gross domestic product (GDP). Even so, their capital expenditure has remained flat at 3.6% to 3.7% of GDP." "The good jobs that come with new factories, warehouses, and showrooms are becoming elusive." "India's per capita real income is less than half of 1950s America," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "India's predictable slide into economic mediocrity follows a well-trodden path into middle-income trap." "Weak authoritarian regimes" "provide only polarisation, slogans and hubris. But they are powerless when an external crisis hits." "High GDP growth that does not translate into more and better jobs, and results in weak inflation due to poor demand, signals a middle-income trap," wrote Rathin Roy. Trapped below the 1950s. Is there a way out? Not by staying down. Push everyone up instead.