Sunday, June 14, 2026
Lagging per capita.
"India's economy grew an unexpectedly strong 7.8% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, the government said, as robust private investment, farm output and construction activity offset the early impact of the Middle East conflict." "India estimates GDP growth for the full fiscal year that ended at 7.7%, the National Statistics Office said." Reuters. "Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis dismissed concerns about an economic slowdown in the country, saying India has the capacity to repay 94% of its foreign debt in a single day." Earlier, our situation was more precarious. MC. This comfort is due to the foundation built by earlier prime ministers and our reserves are an insurance, not disposable cash. However, "Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has questioned whether India's strong economic growth figures fully reflect conditions on the ground, arguing that weak corporate investment and foreign capital inflows are difficult to reconcile with official data showing the economy expanding at more than 7%." ET. In 2026, at current prices, India's GDP per capita is $2,800 while that of Bangladesh is $2,900 and of South Africa is $7,500. imf.org. If the economy is growing gangbusters our companies should be increasing their business. But, "For the first time since at least 2000, no India company ranks in the top 10 of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a benchmark that shapes how hundreds of billions of dollars are allocated to developing economies worldwide." "Total assets benchmarked to MSCI's emerging market indexes including active funds that measure their performance against the same benchmark, exceed $1.8 trillion, MSCI data show." HT. "Foreign investors remained sellers in Indian equities, dumping more than Rs 628.53 billion of shares in the first fortnight of June," and "With the latest outflows, total withdrawals by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from Indian equities have surged to Rs 2.87 trillion in 2026." ET. India-focused funds have pulled out $770 million in the latest week alone, while "US technology focused funds recently attracted a record $9 billion in inflows, while broader US equities saw $10 billion in foreign investments." And, "While India and China have seen outflows, markets like Taiwan and South Korea - which are globally recognized hubs for AI hardware, semiconductors, and electronic supply chains - have attracted over $9 billion in combined inflows." Whalesbook. Previously, FPI selling would cause markers to decline, but "In 2022, despite heavy FPI outflows of over Rs 1.2 trillion, the Nifty 100 generated a positive return of 4.9%. Similarly, in 2025, FPI selling of about Rs 1.64 trillion did not prevent Nifty 100 from gaining over 10%." This is because domestic investors are constantly buying Indian stocks through Systematic Investment Plans (SIP) of mutual funds. Mint. Despite domestic buying, "India's equity market was overtaken by Taiwan and South Korea in quick succession, pushing what was once emerging Asia's darling to seventh in the world by market capitalization." "India's share in the MSCI Global Standard index has shrunk to 12.3% from a peak of 21% in September 2024." Reuters. Domestic buying supports prices of stocks and allows foreign investors to sell at higher prices, increasing their profits and depleting our foreign exchange. "True earned reserves come from sustained current account surpluses (like China has). India rarely runs one." "A large portion of India's reserves are better understood as 'rented capital' rather than earned surpluses." The stock market should be allowed to fall to protect the rupee. "Countries survive stock market crashes. But countries routinely go bankrupt because of currency crashes," wrote Shankar Sharma. Even with GDP soaring we haven't caught Bangladesh as yet. South Africa is far beyond the horizon. What exactly are we celebrating?
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